Welcome to the first official RotoGraphs Closer Report for 2010. It’s been an eventful spring for closers already, with a handful of firemen already hitting the DL. The loss of Minnesota’s Joe Nathan has been the biggest blow so far.

1. New York Yankees (#1 in MLB)
The Man: Mariano Rivera
The Pitch: Cutter, 2.03 wCT/c (runs above average per 100 pitches)
The Health Report: He’s a frickin’ robot
The Comments: If you squint really, really hard you can see some possible signs of decline (highest FIP since 2000, highest HR/9 in his career) but you can also come up with explanations for the numbers. In truth, there really is nothing here that suggests a decline is coming in 2010 for the 40 year old.

The Back-up(s): Joba Chamberlain
The Future: Joba Chamberlain

2. Boston Red Sox (2)
The Man: Jonathan Papelbon
The Pitch: 95 mph fastball, 1.43 wFB/c
The Health Report: He’s had shoulder woes in the past
The Comments: Papelbon wasn’t able to follow up on his outstanding ’08 season but he could see more success in 2010 if he can get his ground-ball rate back up around 50% (It was at 26.7% in ’09). His fastball value has diminished over the past three seasons and it’s worth monitoring.

The Back-up(s): Manny Delcarmen, Daniel Bard
The Future: Daniel Bard

3. Kansas City Royals (4)
The Man: Joakim Soria
The Pitch: Curveball, 4.86 wCB/c
The Health Report: Shoulder woes derailed him in ’09
The Comments: With a significant drop in fastball value, Soria may want to rely on his breaking ball a little more often in 2010 (12% in ’09) if the heater doesn’t rebound. Even with his health woes and loss of success with his fastball, Soria struck out batters at a career-high rate: 11.72 K/9.

The Back-up(s): Kyle Farnsworth, Juan Cruz
The Future: Joakim Soria

4. Oakland Athletics (8)
The Man: Andrew Bailey
The Pitch: 94 mph fastball, 2.10 wFB/c
The Health Report: All systems go
The Comments: Bailey allowed just 49 hits in 83.1 innings of work in ’09 and he displayed the best control of his pro career (2.59 BB/9). Some regression is to be expected during his sophomore season so don’t overpay for his services.

The Back-up(s): Brad Ziegler
The Future: Bailey is the present and the future.

5. Tampa Bay Rays (11)
The Man: Rafael Soriano
The Pitch: 93 mph fastball, 1.42 wFB/c
The Health Report: Checkered past, but healthy this spring
The Comments: The Rays desperately need a healthy season from Soriano as the club has already lost J.P. Howell (17 saves in ’09) to injury. Even without considering his past health issues, Soriano is a high-risk, high-reward closer who has only had double-digit saves once in his eight-season career (27 in ’09).

The Back-up(s): Dan Wheeler
The Future: Jacob McGee

6. Detroit Tigers (12)
The Man: Jose Valverde
The Pitch: 96 mph fastball, 0.75 wFB/c
The Health Report: His ’09 calf injury is not considered chronic
The Comments: After back-to-back 40+ save seasons in ’07 and ’08, Valverde slipped to just 25 in ’09. Despite having good heat, the closer’s fastball has never been a dominating pitch; his splitter has potential but it’s inconsistent. He’ll be joining the American League in 2010 for the first time in his career.

The Back-up(s): Ryan Perry, Joel Zumaya
The Future: Ryan Perry and/or Daniel Schlereth

7. Chicago White Sox (14)
The Man: Bobby Jenks
The Pitch: Curveball, 3.87 wCB/c
The Health Report: Struggling with a calf injury
The Comments: After saving 40+ games in each of his first two seasons as closer, Jenks has dipped to 30 and 29 over the past two seasons. A calf injury kept fellow closer Jose Valverde out for almost two months in ’09 so Matt Thornton could be pressed into duty, which may not be a bad thing; he might be a better closer option even if Jenks was healthy.

The Back-up(s): Matt Thornton, J.J. Putz
The Future: TBD

8. Seattle Mariners (16)
The Man: David Aardsma
The Pitch: 94 mph fastball, 1.78 wFB/c
The Health Report: Some groin soreness, but relatively healthy
The Comments: Given a legitimate shot to close at the MLB level for the first time in his career, Aardsma did not disappoint with 38 in 42 tries. He allowed just 49 hits in 71.1 innings of work and posted a strikeout rate of 10.09 K/9. Aardsma has a history of inconsistency and control issues (4.29 BB/9 in ’09), though.

The Back-up(s): Mark Lowe, Brandon League
The Future: TBD

9. Los Angeles Angels (17)
The Man: Brian Fuentes
The Pitch: 90 mph fastball, 0.81 wFB/c
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: The Angels clubs always seems to get save opportunities for its closer and Fuentes led the Majors in saves in ’09 with 48. The 34-year-old reliever doesn’t have the most dominating stuff, but he’s saved 20 or more games over the past five seasons. His fastball was his only positive-valued pitch in ’09.

The Back-up(s): Fernando Rodney
The Future: Kevin Jepsen (Hat tip to Jeremy Greenhouse)

10. Texas Rangers (19)
The Man: Frank Francisco
The Pitch: Splitter, 1.45 wSF/c
The Health Report: Looking good
The Comments: Mr. Inconsistent has all the ingredients to be a successful closer but he needs to put it all together and keep his head screwed on straight. The 29.5% ground-ball rate from ’09 scares me more than a little bit.

The Back-up(s): C.J. Wilson, Chris Ray
The Future: Tanner Scheppers

11. Baltimore Orioles (21)
The Man: Mike Gonzalez
The Pitch: Slider, 1.09 wSL/c
The Health Report: Wonky back, and he missed big parts of ’07 and ’08 (TJ surgery)
The Comments: Gonzalez got good money to sign as the club’s closer but he played second fiddle to Rafael Soriano in Atlanta last season and the former Pirate blew seven saves in 17 opportunities. Even so, he has the stuff to close if his control is anywhere close to average.

The Back-up(s): Jim Johnson, Koji Uehara
The Future: Kam Mickolio or Brandon Erbe

12. Toronto Blue Jays (27)
The Man: Kevin Gregg
The Pitch: 92 mph fastball, 0.59 wFB/c
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: Gregg may walk a rotting tight rope during each save opportunity, but the dude is durable after appearing in 70+ games each of the past three seasons. He’s also blown 16 saves over the past two seasons (68 opportunities). Jason Frasor is likely trade bait by the end of the spring if the Jays get a good offer and there are clubs that could use his help.

The Back-up(s): Scott Downs, Jason Frasor
The Future: Zach Stewart and/or Danny Farquhar

13. Cleveland Indians (29)
The Man: Kerry Wood
The Pitch: Curveball, 1.61 wCB/c
The Health Report: Down and out for 6-8 weeks (lat muscle)
The Comments: Wood knows the infirmary well, but this injury may be a good thing. The club is not going to win in 2010 so some of the young pitchers might as well gain some valuable, late-game experience. Chris Perez has the pedigree and is coming off of a successful sophomore season, but he also has control (4.26 BB/9) and gopher (1.26 HR/9) issues.

The Back-up(s): Chris Perez, Jensen Lewis, Rafael Perez
The Future: Chris Perez and/or Jess Todd

14. Minnesota Twins (30)
The Man: Joe Nathan
The Pitch: 93 mph fastball, 1.66 wFB/c
The Health Report: Done for 2010 and into 2011
The Comments: Nathan was trying to avoid it, but finally gave in on Sunday and is headed for Tommy John surgery. Mijares is young and inexperienced, but he has a good fastball/slider combination. Guerrier is more about pitchability than pure stuff but he could have success pounding the strike zone with three quality pitches.

The Back-up(s): Jose Mijares, Matt Guerrier
The Future: Carlos Gutierrez and/or Billy Bullock

Up Next: The National League Closers

According to Tom Singer of MLB.com, Cleveland Indians closer Kerry Wood could miss up to two months with a strained latissimus muscle. The 32 year-old Wood, who inked a two-year, $20.5 million deal prior to the 2009 season, posted just 0.4 WAR last year as his walk rate ballooned and batters were reluctant to chase his stuff out of the strike zone. Because of the missed time, Wood has no chance of having his $11 million option for the 2011 season vest (he needs to appear in 55 games for that to happen).

With Wood out, save ops will go to 24 year-old Chris Perez. The former Miami Hurricane came to Cleveland via St. Louis, as part of last June’s Mark DeRosa trade that also netted the Indians Jess Todd.

A 6-4, 230 pound righty, Perez uses a mid-90’s fastball and a hard, mid-80’s slider to wreak havoc out of the ‘pen. He punched out 12 batters per nine innings in the minors, and has 10.03 K/9 in 98.2 career big league frames. Perez’s heater has been worth +0.39 runs per 100 pitches, with the slider checking in at +0.43.

Control, however, has proven elusive. Perez walked six hitters per nine on the farm, and he has issued 4.47 BB/9 in the majors. As you might expect, he doesn’t do a great job of getting ahead in the count (his 57.9 first-pitch strike percentage is about average). Opposing batters haven’t been especially giddy to chase his pitches off the plate, as Perez has a career 21.3 outside-swing percentage (25 percent MLB average).

Homers are another possible problem. Perez has burned worms just 36.8 percent of the time over the 2008 and 2009 seasons, and has surrendered 1.19 dingers per nine innings.

CHONE and ZiPS give similar forecasts for the 2010 season:

CHONE: 9.82 K/9, 4.91 BB/9, 0.98 HR/9, 4.13 FIP
ZiPS: 10.07 K/9, 4.62 BB/9, 1.12 HR/9, 4.12 FIP

If he’s still available, Perez should be picked up in all leagues. He’s going to whiff a ton of batters, though he could occasionally give owners indigestion due to the walks.

The news came down the pipe this morning that Joe Nathan has a torn Ulnar Collateral Ligament and is, in all likelihood, headed for Tommy John surgery. No pitchers in recent memory have rehabbed through a torn UCL. A moment of silence for Nathan’s 2010 season, and for all of the keeper league owners that were happy with their elite closer.

Now let’s have some fun with rampant closer speculation. The front-runner has to be Jon Rauch because of his mythical ‘experience in the role.’ Yes, because he closed for 40 innings in the National League, he’ll probably be the front runner to assume the mantle in Minnesota. Then again, one has to be concerned with his strikeout rate, which peaked in 2006 (8.47), recovered in 2008 (8.29) and dropped off a table last year in Arizona (6.30 overall). In general, he offers some nice strikeout ability (though not plus for a closer) and an above-average walk rate (2.89 career, 3.46 ’09 ML average).

On the other hand, there’s been some change in his mix as he’s aged, and it doesn’t seem to be good news. He’s using his fastball less every year (down to 52.8% from 67.9% in 2006) and replacing it with his curveball (up from 3.3% to 15.5% last year). The problem? His fastball has been worth 17.1 runs by linear weights over his career, His curveball? -1.3. Yeah, where is that fastball going?

Could the Twins instead turn to a man with a funky delivery that has his own blog and a penchant for juicing? What about Pat Neshek? He owns a sparkling 10.56 K/9 for his career, a decent 2.76 BB/9, and despite slight gopherball problems (1.12 HR/9 career), has a sparkling WHIP (0.96). He’s coming off TJ surgery of his own, but has pitched live ball in Spring Training (2 innings, 2 Ks and 1 hit if you must know). There is a whiff of Brad Ziegler about him, but here are his splits against lefties, from our very own splits pages: 8.59 K/9, 3.68 BB/9, 1.16 WHIP (good), 55.9% FB, 12.1% HR/FB, 1.64 HR/9, 4.70 xFIP (bad). This is all against 185 total lefty batters faced… this sample is not big enough to say definitively that he cannot handle lefties. This book is not closed. And since it is such a fun read, there’s at least one fantasy analyst that is banging the drum for Neshek to take over the closer’s role for the year.

What about Matt Guerrier? What about him? With a below-average 6.01 career K/9, and no corresponding excellent ground ball rate (45.5% career) he’s squarely third on this list. His .222 BABIP last year will surely regress and the Twins will once again have the okay guy they’ve always had. No closer here, despite last year’s seemingly excellent numbers.

One last note – the possibility that the closer comes from outside the organization is reasonably high. The Cubs inquired with the Jays about Jason Frasor, and because that team is rebuilding, it seems that maybe also Scott Downs might be available. Anthony Castrovince, the Cleveland Indians reporter for MLB.com, speculated on Twitter about Kerry Wood being moved to the Twinkies. These options may all be more palatable to a Twins team that wants to compete in their new stadium. Hey, they all have ‘experience in the role.’

Toronto Blue Jays signed RHP Kevin Gregg to a one-year, $2.75 million contract, with a pair of club options.

According to Jordan Bastian’s MLB.com report, Gregg’s pact has two different club options. After next season’s Fall Classic, the Jays can do any of the following: say sayonara, retain Gregg at $4.5 million for 2011 or pick up a two-year option covering 2011 and 2012 for a total of $8.75 million. Gregg qualified as a Type A free agent, but the Cubs didn’t offer him arbitration. Thus, no draft pick changes hands.

The bespectacled, 31 year-old right-hander saw his ERA rise from the mid-three’s in 2007 and 2008 to a mediocre 4.72 mark this past year. However, a closer look at Gregg’s peripherals suggests his ’09 might have actually been better than the two previous seasons.

Gregg whiffed 9.31 batters per nine innings with Chicago, issuing 3.93 BB/9. The K rate was the second-best figure of the former Angel, Marlin and Cub’s career, and the walk rate was his lowest since 2006. He garnered more outside swings in ’09 (26.1%) than at any other point in his big league career. His BABIP wasn’t high (.277), nor was his rate of stranding runners on base very low (73.5). So, what’s the deal with the ERA?

Home runs. An extreme fly ball pitcher (career 39 GB%), Gregg had very low home run per fly ball rates in 2007 (5.9%) and 2008 (4.4%). In ’09, a whopping 15.3 percent of fly balls hit against Gregg became souvenirs. For comparison, the big league average is usually around 11-12 percent.

He was fortunate in ’07 and ’08, and had lousy luck in ’09. These things happen with relievers tossing 60-80 frames per year: a couple extra wall-scrapers are hit against a guy, and his overall line suffers. Gregg’s xFIP, based on K’s, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate, was 4.16 in 2009. That was actually lower than ’07 (4.74) and ’08 (4.59).

Gregg doesn’t have the stuff typically associated with a late-game reliever. He’s a three-pitch guy, tossing a 91-92 MPH fastball (+0.67 runs/100 career), a low-80’s slider (+0.11) and the occasional mid-80’s splitter (+1.13). Over the past couple of years, Gregg has thrown fewer fastballs, mixing in more sliders instead. Perhaps as a result, Gregg’s percentage of pitchers within the zone has decreased. His InZone% was 50.4 in 2007, 49.5 in 2008 and 44.8 in 2009 (49-51% MLB average).

In Toronto, Gregg will compete with Scott Downs and Jason Frasor for save ops, assuming neither of those two are bartered before Opening Day.

Downs, 34 in March, is a groundball-centric lefty who uses a 89-90 MPH sinker with hellacious tailing action in on southpaw batters, as well as a big-breaking mid-70’s curveball. Downs has moved in the opposite direction as Gregg, progressively tossing more fastballs (from 63% in ’07 to 74% in ’09). He has a three-year xFIP of 3.38. Downs’ 2009 season was interrupted by a left foot injury that required surgery, as well as a strained right hamstring.

Frasor, 32, is a diminutive righty who pumps 93-94 MPH gas. That fastball has been a plus offering, with a career +0.94 run value per 100 pitches. He also features an average low-80’s slider (+0.02), with a few changeups/splitters sprinkled in. Frasor’s three-year xFIP is 4.01.

Here are the 2010 CHONE projections for our three closer contenders:

Gregg: 67 IP, 7.7 K/9, 4.16 BB/9, 0.94 HR/9, 4.32 FIP
Downs: 49 IP, 7.7 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 0.73 HR/9, 3.67 FIP
Frasor: 51 IP, 8.3 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 0.71 HR/9, 4.12 FIP

Gregg figures to rebound somewhat next season, but intermittent control and fly ball proclivities make him an iffy high-leverage reliever. Toronto’s ninth-inning situation bears watching over the next couple of months.

Pittsburgh Pirates signed RHP Octavio Dotel to a one-year deal with an option for the 2011 season.

The deal is pending a physical, and financial terms aren’t yet known. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette writer Dejan Kovacevic reports that Dotel is expected to earn about $3 million in 2010, however.

The 36 year-old righty will take over ninth inning duties from Matt Capps, who was non-tendered in December and inked a $3.5 million deal with the Nationals in early January.

Dotel missed the majority of the 2005 and 2006 seasons following Tommy John surgery, then posted a 3.73 xFIP in 30.2 IP between the Royals and Braves in 2007 while serving DL stints for a strained oblique and a right shoulder strain.

Since then, the former Met, Astro, Athletic, Yankee, Royal, Brave and White Sock has turned in back-to-back healthy, productive campaigns. Over the past two years, Dotel has punched out 11.62 batters per nine innings, second-best among relievers (Jonathan Broxton takes top honors). His control wavers (4.52 BB/9) and he’s an extreme fly ball pitcher (34 GB%), but Dotel compiled a 3.72 xFIP with the South Siders in 2008 and 2009.

Pittsburgh’s new stopper flings his fastball over 80 percent of the time, supplementing the pitch with a low-80’s slider. Dotel’s Pitch F/X page suggests that he picked up the Cooper Cutter: there is a pronounced difference in vertical and horizontal movement between his four-seam fastball and cutter.

As Dave Allen showed, Dotel attacks hitters high in the zone with his heater, despite relatively modest velocity (he once sat in the mid-90’s, but now pops the gun at 92-93 MPH).

That up-the-ladder approach helps explain Dotel’s big whiff rates and fly ball tendencies: pitches high in the zone garner more swings and misses and fly balls, while pitches lower in the zone produce more contact and grounders. Dotel’s fastball(s) have a +0.40 run value per 100 pitches since 2008, while his slider checks in at +0.13. Octavio has the 12th-lowest contact rate among ‘pen arms over that time frame, at 71.9 percent.

Dotel’s new digs should help him, considering how often batters loft the ball against him when they manage to make contact. Per the 2010 Bill James Handbook, PNC Park suppressed home run production by 12 percent compared to a neutral park from 2007-2009. Compare that to his old home, U.S. Cellular Field. The Cell boosted taters by 25 percent compared to a neutral stadium over that same time period. CHONE projects a 3.72 FIP for Dotel next season, with 10.7 K/9 and 4.25 BB/9.

Pittsburgh Pirates claimed OF Brandon Jones off waivers from the Atlanta Braves.

Jones’ stay with the Bucs could be transient: the club apparently claimed the Braves farmhand off waivers with the intention of flipping him to another organization.

The 26 year-old lefty batter got cups of coffee with Atlanta in each of the past three seasons, posting an 81 wRC+ in 166 plate appearances. In 1,000+ PA at the Triple-A Level, Jones has a .277/.354/.420 triple-slash, walking in 11 percent of his trips to the plate and whiffing 18.3 percent.

While Baseball America rated him as the fourth-best prospect in the Braves’ system prior to the 2007 and 2008 seasons, Jones looks headed for a career as a handy fourth outfielder. He plays a nifty corner outfield according to TotalZone, and CHONE forecasts a .267/.342/.425 line in 2010.

According to MLB.com’s Jason Beck, free agent reliever Jose Valverde has come to terms with the Detroit Tigers on a two-year, $14 million contract, with a $9 million option for the 2012 season. Because Valverde is a Type A free agent, the Houston Astros will receive Detroit’s first-round pick (19th overall) in the 2010 amateur draft, as well as a supplemental first-round selection.

Papa Grande’s signing ends any notion of Ryan Perry, Joel Zumaya or newly-acquired Daniel Schlereth closing out games for the Tigers.

Thirty-two in March, Valverde has a career 3.47 Expected Fielding Independent ERA (xFIP). Over the last three seasons, he has a 3.59 xFIP, with 10.26 strikeouts per nine innings and 3.31 BB/9. It’s worth noting that Valverde’s K rate has declined four years running, from 12.59 per nine frames in 2006 to 9.33 K/9 in 2009.

The former Diamondback and Astro made some changes to his approach over that time. Counter intuitively, Valverde’s punch out rate declined while his percentage of fastballs thrown decreased:

Valverde’s fastball percentage, 2006-2009

2006: 84.4%
2007: 77.8%
2008: 74.1%
2009: 69.4%

Valverde’s fastball velocity has trended up: 93.5 MPH in ’06, 93.4 in ’07, 95.5 in ’08 and a sizzling 95.8 in ’09.

The 6-4 right-hander has mixed in more mid-80’s splitters: 9.8% in 2006, 20% in 2007, 24.4% in 2008 and 26.9% this past year. Firing fastballs less often and relying more on the splitter, Valverde has tossed fewer pitches in the strike zone and has become more adept at garnering swings outside of the zone:

2006: 59.2 Zone%, 22.3 O-Swing%
2007: 55.4 Zone%, 24.4 O-Swing%
2008: 52.5 Zone%, 33 O-Swing%
2009: 52.3 Zone%, 32 O-Swing%

(The MLB average for Zone% has been between 49-52% from 2006-2009, while the average O-Swing% has been between 23-25%)

So, he’s throwing fewer fastballs and more splitters, while putting fewer pitches over the plate and getting more outside swings. Those trends might lead you to believe that he would induce more swings and misses, but that hasn’t been the case. The reason? Valverde’s blistering fastball actually has a higher whiff rate than his splitter.

Valverde’s four-seamer had a 15.2% whiff rate in 2008 and a 12.6 whiff% in 2009. For reference, the average for righty pitchers is about six percent. His splitter, by contrast, had a 13.3% whiff rate in ’08 and a 12.2% mark in ’09 (the MLB average is 12-13 percent). Both offerings get the job done, though. Since 2007, Valverde’s fastball (+0.88 runs/100 pitches) and split (+0.79) have been similarly effective on a per-pitch basis.

CHONE has Valverde compiling a 3.87 FIP in 2010, with 8.37 K/9 and 3.47 BB/9 in 57 innings pitched. That comes out to about 0.7 Wins Above Replacement, the same total that Valverde posted in 2009.

A win is thought to cost roughly $4.5 million on the free agent market. The Tigers figure to get 1.5 to 2 wins out of Valverde’s two guaranteed years, meaning the club is paying something like $7 to 9+ million per win. Of course, you also have to consider the cost of losing a first-round pick (about $6.5 million, according to Victor Wang’s research). With the lost draft pick factored in, Detroit may be shelling out between $10+ million to $13+ million per win. If you think that’s a good deal, then I have beachfront property in Pittsburgh to sell you.

For fantasy purposes, Valverde is a good second-tier option. He’s not in the same class as the Riveras, Nathans and Sorias of the world, but if your investment in Papa Grande is more moderate than Detroit’s, you won’t get buyer’s remorse.

Earlier in the decade, the Angels were known for consistently cobbling together top-tier bullpens. From 2002-2007, L.A. ranked in the top three in the American League in reliever xFIP, taking top honors in 2003 and 2004.

The names, outside of $900,000 bonus baby Francisco Rodriguez, were hardly glamorous. Those Angelic bullpens were anchored by guys like Brendan Donnelly (a 27th round pick of the White Sox who passed through six organizations), Scot Shields (the Angels’ 38th rounder in 1997) and Ben Weber, a 20th round pick of the Blue Jays who didn’t get a legit big league shot until age 31.

Given the Angels’ track record of uncovering bullpen gems, one might find it strange that the team has laid down a big chunk of change on free agent relievers in recent off-seasons. Justin Speier pulled down $18 million while contributing -0.2 WAR. Brian Fuentes compiled 0.4 WAR in 2009 while making $8.5M. He’ll earn $9M in 2010, and has a $9M vesting option for 2011. Fun fact: Donnelly came out of nowhere, again, to post a 0.6 WAR season with the Marlins in 2009. The cost? A minor league deal.

Add Fernando Rodney to the list of high-profile relief signings. The long-time Tiger, 33 in March, inked for two years and $11M recently. It’s a level of compensation that Rodney has not justified during his major league tenure.

The first thing some will point to regarding Rodney is: 37 for 38. As in, he converted 37 of 38 save opportunities in 2009. That sounds impressive, right? Well, looks can be deceiving.

Rodney posted his lowest strikeout rate (7.26 K/9) since an 18-inning stint 2002. His control, never a strong suit (career 4.64 BB/9) was again middling, with 4.88 walks per nine frames in 2009. On the positive side, the righty with mid-90’s gas and a hard changeup did post the highest groundball rate (57.9 percent) and first pitch strike percentage (62.7) of his career.

Even so, he was nothing special. Rodney’s xFIP was 4.42 this past season. For reference, 138 relievers pitched 50 or more innings in 2009. Fernando’s xFIP placed 89th. His 1.49 K/BB ratio ranked 115th. Even by Rodney’s own standards, it wasn’t a banner season. His 77.9% contact rate was his highest since ’02, and well above his 73.3% career mark. His ’09 xFIP was actually his worst full-season mark.

With the Angels, Rodney could now compete with last year’s big-ticket disappointment, Fuentes. The 34 year-old southpaw posted a K rate (7.53 per nine) well below his career level (9.92 K/9), while handing out 3.93 BB/9. His xFIP was a grisly 4.94.

Fuentes couldn’t seem to find his breaking stuff last year. His recent Baseball Info Solutions pitch data lumps all of his mid-70’s breakers together, but the Pitch F/X data suggests Fuentes tosses both a slider and a curve.

The slider has been worth a healthy +0.76 runs per 100 pitches since 2002, with the curve posting a run value around the major league average. But in 2009, those slow, sweeping pitches (all called sliders by BIS) were pummeled for -0.42 runs/100. Fuentes’ contact rate spiked to 80.3 percent, well above his 73.6% figure since ’02.

Here are the 2010 CHONE projections for Rodney and Fuentes:

Rodney: 57 IP, 7.9 K/9, 4.9 BB/9, 4.58 ERA, 0 runs above replacement
Fuentes: 56 IP, 7.9 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 3.54 ERA, +8 RAR

If Rodney and Fuentes were to perform around this level, the Angels would be paying $14.5M for less than one win above replacement.

Heading into 2010, Rodney will garner attention based on his save total and the possibility that he usurps Fuentes for ninth inning glory in L.A. Don’t get carried away, though. For all of the press and cash Rodney and Fuentes will get, the best reliever in the ‘pen might just be pitching in middle relief.

Mariners acquired OF Johermyn Chavez and RHP Brandon League from the Blue Jays for RHP Brandon Morrow.

Marc Hulet did a fantastic job giving us a breakdown of Chavez, a 20 year-old with a projectable 6-3, 200+ pound frame and power potential. The Venezuelan prospect has plenty to learn about controlling the strike zone, however. Johermyn, meet Greg Halman. Greg, Johermyn.

While Chavez could pay dividends for the Mariners down the line, let’s break down how Morrow and League are affected by this deal.

If someone publishes “Pitcher Development for Dummies,” there ought to be an entire chapter devoted to how Morrow was mishandled in his early days in Seattle.

The fireballing righty was taken 5th overall out of Cal in the 2006 amateur draft. In its prospect coverage, Baseball America dubbed Morrow “perhaps the best pure arm in the draft.” The lanky 6-3 pitcher sat in the mid-to-high 90’s with his fastball, flashing an occasionally plus slider and a passable changeup. However, BA also said that his secondary stuff “comes and goes,” and that “several scouts still question his feel for the strike zone and for pitching in general.”

So, what did the M’s do with their gifted-but-unpolished bonus baby? Jump him all the way to the majors after 16 innings in the minors, of course!

In 2007, Morrow was pigeonholed into Seattle’s bullpen. Unsurprisingly, he was as raw as uncooked hamburger meat. Instead of working on his breaking and off speed stuff in the minors, building arm strength and stamina, Morrow flung mid-90’s fastballs in the bigs, hoping to miss enough bats to compensate for a total lack of control.

He did whiff a lot of hitters, with 9.38 K/9. But Morrow walked an obscene 7.11 hitters per nine frames. His heater, thrown 80 percent of the time, was decent (+0.53 runs per 100 pitches). But Brandon made little progress with his secondary pitches (-2.37 for the slider, with a splitter/change that was about average).

Morrow spent most of 2008 as a reliever, before going to the minors to get stretched out and returning in September as a starter.

He whiffed 11.5 batters per nine frames in 36.2 relief innings, with improved control (3.68 BB/9). As a starter, Morrow posted rates of 9 K/9 and 6.11 BB/9 in 28 IP. Overall, his fastball (thrown 71 percent) was excellent (+1.59 runs/100). Morrow’s slider was still lackluster (-0.54), and his changeup/split was a little better than average (+0.34).

2009 was more of the same. To start, or not to start, that is the question. Hamle…er, Morrow oscillated between the ‘pen and the rotation yet again. He served as Seattle’s closer before David Aardsma grabbed the role. Brandon also served a DL stint with right biceps tendinitis in late April (he had some shoulder and forearm discomfort earlier in the spring as well). Morrow then made some starts from June to July, before getting optioned to AAA Tacoma.

In 10 starts (55 innings) with the Rainers, the former Golden Bear punched out a modest 6.5 hitters per nine innings, with 3.8 BB/9 and a 3.53 FIP. Morrow had more issues with a forearm strain while on the farm.

He returned to Seattle in September to make four more starts. As a starter in 2009, Morrow K’d 7.5 per nine frames, while still handing out plenty of free passes (5.26 BB/9).

Ironically, his slider (+0.64 runs/100), curveball (+0.5) and changeup (+0.18) rated as above-average pitches in ’09, while his heater suffered (-0.53).

Under team control until 2012, Morrow hopes to start with the Blue Jays. Because of the peculiar decision by Seattle’s last regime to stuff him in the bullpen and Morrow’s subsequent shuffling between roles, he’s now 25 and still green as grass.

Assuming Morrow still has minor league options left, might it be best for Toronto to give him back some of that lost development time by letting him open the 2010 season at AAA? Las Vegas isn’t an ideal locale for a pitcher to polish his skills. But Morrow tossed all of 101 frames in the minors, and has a career walk rate of 5.8 per nine innings in the majors. He’s clearly talented, but he’s also a mess right now. Morrow could also emerge as a closer option with the Jays.

In swapping Morrow for League, Seattle is either A.) fairly convinced that Morrow won’t cut it as a starter, B.) smitten with the young outfielder Chavez or C.) both.

That’s not to say that League is a slouch, though. The 27 year-old righty has a career 3.71 xFIP in the majors, waging a ground assault with a 62 GB%. Toronto’s second-round pick in the 2001 draft turned in his finest campaign in 2009, with 9.16 K/9, 2.53 BB/9 and a 3.16 xFIP in 74.2 innings.

League’s 2009 K rate was well above his career average of 6.85 per nine innings. He changed his approach this past year, however. The 6-2 reliever threw a blistering mid-90’s fastball well over 80 percent of the time from 2006-2008, mixing in some high-80’s sliders and a rare changeup.

In ’09, League lowered his fastball percentage to 65 percent, and basically scrapped the slider. He relied heavily upon his mid-80’s changeup, tossing the pitch nearly 33 percent of the time. While his heater wasn’t as successful as usual (-0.31 runs/100, compared to +0.24 during his career), Brandon’s hard changeup was a plus offering (+2.65 runs/100 in 2009).

The result of the change? A career-high outside-swing percentage (32.9 percent) and a big dip in contact rate (71 percent, compared to a 78.8% career average). The extra whiffs came at the expense of some grounders, though he still kept the ball down (55.7 GB%).

With a low arm slot and his previously fastball-centric approach, League has struggled with lefties. He still gave up his fair share of extra-base hits to southpaws in ’09, but he did at least display better control against opposite-handed hitters.

There has been some speculation that League could try his hand at starting, but he hasn’t started on a regular basis since 2003. In all likelihood, League gives the M’s a strong 7th or 8th inning relief option.

After examining some of the interesting hitters non-tendered, let’s now turn our focus toward the hurlers let go by teams on Saturday. I only included CHONE projections for a select few, as many of these pitchers are still on the rehab trail.

Jose Arredondo

Arredondo was a revelation out of the Angels bullpen in 2008 (8.11 K/9, 3.25 BB/9, 3.62 xFIP), but he endured a nightmarish 2009 campaign and is now set to undergo Tommy John surgery. The small righty with big stuff wasn’t nearly as bad in 2009 as his 6.00 ERA would indicate, as his BABIP was .339 and his strand rate was just 64.9%. Arredondo’s xFIP was 4.03. He missed more bats (9.4 K/9), but his control suffered (4.6 BB/9). Jose also whiffed a bunch of batters (10.5 K/9) and walked the yard (6.1 BB/9) in 20.2 innings at AAA.

Matt Capps (56 IP, 6.91 K/9, 2.41 BB/9, 1.13 HR/9)

Capps was something of a surprise non-tender, but his reputation might surpass his actual contribution at this point. To be sure, he’s nowhere near as bad as his 5.80 ERA in 2009 would suggest: his BABIP was a stunning .370. Capps has excellent control (career 1.66 BB/9), but he doesn’t whiff many batters for a late-game reliever (6.89 K/9). An extreme fly ball pitcher (career 36 GB%), Capps benefitted from abnormally low home run/fly ball rates in 2007 (4.4%) and 2008 (6.8%). In ’09, that figure regressed to 13.5%. Check out Capps’ ERA and xFIP numbers from 2007 to 2009:

2007: 2.28 ERA, 4.31 xFIP
2008: 3.02 ERA, 3.95 xFIP
2009: 5.80 ERA, 4.37 xFIP

Add in Capps’ recent health problems (DL stints for a shoulder injury in ’08 and an elbow malady in ’09), and the non-tender begins to make more sense.

Mike MacDougal (55 IP, 6.71 K/9, 5.56 BB/9, 0.65 HR/9)

The Nationals wisely let the control-challenged, injury-prone MacDougal walk, rather than going to arbitration with a guy whose surface stats (20 saves in 21 chances, 4.31 ERA) far exceeded his peripherals (5.63 K/9, 6.29 BB/9, 4.99 xFIP). MacDougal was as wild as ever in 2009, and his stuff missed few bats. The 32 year-old righty decided to chuck mid-90’s heater after mid-90’s heater (Mac tossed his fastball almost 90% of the time in 2009). Subsequently, his contact rate spiked to 83.9%, compared to a career 78.2% average.

Adam Miller

Sigh. The electric right-hander was once the pride of the Indians organization, and for good reason. His mid-90’s heat and sinister slider fooled plenty of batters in the minors. But injuries have ruined Miller’s career. Elbow problems slowed him a few years ago, and a pair of surgeries on his right middle finger could possibly end his career before it even got started.

(Update: Miller and Reyes have been re-signed by the Indians.)

Scott Olsen

Have you seen Olsen’s career? In 2006, the lefty looked like one of the more valuable commodities in the N.L. At 22 years old, Olsen posted a 4.07 xFIP in 180.2 IP, whiffing 8.27 hitters per nine innings and displaying an excellent slider and changeup.

After a mediocre 2007 season (4.95 xFIP), Olsen’s velocity fell off a cliff in 2008. So did his ability to make hitters miss: 8.27 K/9 in ’06, 6.78 in ’07, and just 5.04 per nine in ’08. A trade to the Nationals did little to revive his velocity and career, and Olsen underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum in July. Perhaps Washington will bring the soon-to-be 26 year-old back at a lower cost, but his stock has plummeted.

Anthony Reyes

The former Cardinals prospect has a fantastic minor league track record. However, Reyes likes to work up in the zone with his high-80’s-low-90’s fastball. That has led to a ton of fly balls (35.9 GB%) and dingers (1.35 HR/9) in the big leagues. His career line in the majors: 5.05 xFIP, 6.29 K/9 and 3.65 BB/9 in 293.1 frames.

Reyes’ career has also been marred by elbow ailments, and he underwent Tommy John surgery this past June after an abysmal performance with the Indians. The 28 year-old has a pair of decent secondary pitches in a mid-70’s curveball (+0.13 runs/100 career) and a mid-70’s changeup (+0.32 runs/100). He’s going to have to learn to keep that heater down, though, lest it continue to get scorched (-0.52 runs/100).

(Update: Reyes and Miller have been re-signed by the Indians.)

Chien-Ming Wang (103 IP, 5.42 K/9, 3.15 BB/9, 0.61 HR/9)

Which sinkerballer’s career has imploded more: Wang’s or Fausto Carmona’s?

Wang (30 in March) had a mind-bending 9.64 ERA in 42 frames this past season: a .397 BABIP and a 53.1% strand rate will do that. He was the most groundball-centric pitcher in the big leagues earlier in his career, getting worm-burners over 60% of the time from 2007-2009. But during injury-plagued 2008 and 2009 campaigns (season-ending Lisfranc problem in ’08, a hip ailment and a shoulder injury requiring season-ending surgery in ’09), Wang’s groundball rate fell to around 53-54%.

He’s still recovering from that June shoulder surgery, and he isn’t expected to take a big league mound until late spring or early summer. If Wang can get healthy, he and his 4.22 career xFIP could still be of use to clubs.

Mark Worrell

A righty reliever with a wacky delivery, Worrell was acquired by the Padres (along with Luke Gregerson) in last winter’s Khalil Greene trade.

While Gregerson was extremely effective out of the ‘pen for San Diego, Worrell underwent Tommy John surgery and missed the ’09 season. Worrell has missed a ton of bats in the minors. He could re-sign with the Padres as he continues his rehab.

When I think of relief pitchers, this Neil Young lyric pops into my head:

It’s better to burn out
Than to fade away
My my, hey hey.

The reign of a top bullpen arm can be transient. One minute, a guy is on top of the world, entering the game to a heavy metal tune and a boisterous crowd reception worthy of a heavyweight champion. The next, he’s posting a 4.65 ERA with the Quebec Capitales (Qu’est-ce qui se passe, Eric Gagne?)

J.J. Putz can well understand. The 6-5 righty was a run-of-the-mill middle reliever with the Mariners in 2004 and 2005. Then, he found an extra gear on his fastball, added a splitter and became a monster out of the M’s pen. Now, after two lost seasons, Putz has inked a one-year, $3M deal with the White Sox with $3.25M in incentives.

Putz posted nearly six wins above replacement between 2006 and 2007, with rates of 11.2 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9. His mid-90’s fastball posted run values of +2.06 per 100 pitches in ’06 and +2.58 in ’07, with his splitter and slider also causing hitters to walk back to the dugout mumbling to themselves. J.J. had 2.11 xFIP in 2006 and a 2.82 mark in 2007.

Unfortunately, Putz’s time as a bullpen rock star ended there. His 2008 season was marred by ribcage and elbow maladies, limiting him to 46.1 IP. Putz still whiffed plenty of batters (10.88 K/9), but his control deserted him (5.44 BB/9). He pounded the strike zone during his glory days (54 InZone% in 2006 and 2007), but J.J. put just 47.5% of his pitches over the plate in ’08 (the MLB average has been around 50-52% over the past three seasons).

Following the season, Seattle swapped Putz to the Mets as part of a three-team, 12-player deal. Rather than re-establishing his value as K-Rod’s set-up man, Putz threw just 29.1 frames before succumbing to surgery to remove bone spurs from his elbow.

He was a shell of his former self in 2009, walking as many batters as he punched out (5.83 K/9 and 5.83 BB/9). Putz’s fastball was down a couple of ticks, and the pitch was plastered (-1.63 runs/100). His contact rate soared, sitting at 82.7% compared to a 76% career average. With Putz a mess on the mound, opposing hitters were content to lay off his stuff (17.9 outside-swing percentage in ’09, compared to about 25% in 2007 and 2008).

Looking at Putz’s Pitch F/X data, there’s an interesting trend in the vertical movement on his splitter. Pitch F/X splits Putz’s off-speed stuff into changeups and splitters, classifying most of them as changeups. I’m going to lump them together here, and call them all splitters. Take a look at the difference in the vertical movement in Putz’s fastball and splitter over the past three years:

Vertical movement on Putz’s fastball and splitter, 2007-2009
2007
Fastball: 10.9 Z
Splitter: 6.4 Z
Difference in vertical movement: 4.5 inches

2008
Fastball: 9.9 Z
Splitter: 4.1 Z
Difference in vertical movement: 5.8 inches

2009
Fastball: 9.8 Z
Splitter: 2.7 Z
Difference in vertical movement: 7.1 inches

There’s now a pronounced difference in vertical movement between Putz’s fastball and splitter. Perhaps there’s a point of diminishing returns with the separation between those two pitches: if there’s too much of a difference, hitters will be able to distinguish between the fastball and splitter and simply lay off those tumbling off-speed pitches they once flailed at.

On the south side, Putz is no better than third in line for save chances, behind incumbent Bobby Jenks (3.63 xFIP in 2009) and set-up man Matt Thornton (2.79 xFIP). Hey, it still beats the Can Am League.