The Closer Report: American League Edition
Welcome to the first official RotoGraphs Closer Report for 2010. It’s been an eventful spring for closers already, with a handful of firemen already hitting the DL. The loss of Minnesota’s Joe Nathan has been the biggest blow so far.
1. New York Yankees (#1 in MLB)
The Man: Mariano Rivera
The Pitch: Cutter, 2.03 wCT/c (runs above average per 100 pitches)
The Health Report: He’s a frickin’ robot
The Comments: If you squint really, really hard you can see some possible signs of decline (highest FIP since 2000, highest HR/9 in his career) but you can also come up with explanations for the numbers. In truth, there really is nothing here that suggests a decline is coming in 2010 for the 40 year old.
The Back-up(s): Joba Chamberlain
The Future: Joba Chamberlain
2. Boston Red Sox (2)
The Man: Jonathan Papelbon
The Pitch: 95 mph fastball, 1.43 wFB/c
The Health Report: He’s had shoulder woes in the past
The Comments: Papelbon wasn’t able to follow up on his outstanding ’08 season but he could see more success in 2010 if he can get his ground-ball rate back up around 50% (It was at 26.7% in ’09). His fastball value has diminished over the past three seasons and it’s worth monitoring.
The Back-up(s): Manny Delcarmen, Daniel Bard
The Future: Daniel Bard
3. Kansas City Royals (4)
The Man: Joakim Soria
The Pitch: Curveball, 4.86 wCB/c
The Health Report: Shoulder woes derailed him in ’09
The Comments: With a significant drop in fastball value, Soria may want to rely on his breaking ball a little more often in 2010 (12% in ’09) if the heater doesn’t rebound. Even with his health woes and loss of success with his fastball, Soria struck out batters at a career-high rate: 11.72 K/9.
The Back-up(s): Kyle Farnsworth, Juan Cruz
The Future: Joakim Soria
4. Oakland Athletics (8)
The Man: Andrew Bailey
The Pitch: 94 mph fastball, 2.10 wFB/c
The Health Report: All systems go
The Comments: Bailey allowed just 49 hits in 83.1 innings of work in ’09 and he displayed the best control of his pro career (2.59 BB/9). Some regression is to be expected during his sophomore season so don’t overpay for his services.
The Back-up(s): Brad Ziegler
The Future: Bailey is the present and the future.
5. Tampa Bay Rays (11)
The Man: Rafael Soriano
The Pitch: 93 mph fastball, 1.42 wFB/c
The Health Report: Checkered past, but healthy this spring
The Comments: The Rays desperately need a healthy season from Soriano as the club has already lost J.P. Howell (17 saves in ’09) to injury. Even without considering his past health issues, Soriano is a high-risk, high-reward closer who has only had double-digit saves once in his eight-season career (27 in ’09).
The Back-up(s): Dan Wheeler
The Future: Jacob McGee
6. Detroit Tigers (12)
The Man: Jose Valverde
The Pitch: 96 mph fastball, 0.75 wFB/c
The Health Report: His ’09 calf injury is not considered chronic
The Comments: After back-to-back 40+ save seasons in ’07 and ’08, Valverde slipped to just 25 in ’09. Despite having good heat, the closer’s fastball has never been a dominating pitch; his splitter has potential but it’s inconsistent. He’ll be joining the American League in 2010 for the first time in his career.
The Back-up(s): Ryan Perry, Joel Zumaya
The Future: Ryan Perry and/or Daniel Schlereth
7. Chicago White Sox (14)
The Man: Bobby Jenks
The Pitch: Curveball, 3.87 wCB/c
The Health Report: Struggling with a calf injury
The Comments: After saving 40+ games in each of his first two seasons as closer, Jenks has dipped to 30 and 29 over the past two seasons. A calf injury kept fellow closer Jose Valverde out for almost two months in ’09 so Matt Thornton could be pressed into duty, which may not be a bad thing; he might be a better closer option even if Jenks was healthy.
The Back-up(s): Matt Thornton, J.J. Putz
The Future: TBD
8. Seattle Mariners (16)
The Man: David Aardsma
The Pitch: 94 mph fastball, 1.78 wFB/c
The Health Report: Some groin soreness, but relatively healthy
The Comments: Given a legitimate shot to close at the MLB level for the first time in his career, Aardsma did not disappoint with 38 in 42 tries. He allowed just 49 hits in 71.1 innings of work and posted a strikeout rate of 10.09 K/9. Aardsma has a history of inconsistency and control issues (4.29 BB/9 in ’09), though.
The Back-up(s): Mark Lowe, Brandon League
The Future: TBD
9. Los Angeles Angels (17)
The Man: Brian Fuentes
The Pitch: 90 mph fastball, 0.81 wFB/c
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: The Angels clubs always seems to get save opportunities for its closer and Fuentes led the Majors in saves in ’09 with 48. The 34-year-old reliever doesn’t have the most dominating stuff, but he’s saved 20 or more games over the past five seasons. His fastball was his only positive-valued pitch in ’09.
The Back-up(s): Fernando Rodney
The Future: Kevin Jepsen (Hat tip to Jeremy Greenhouse)
10. Texas Rangers (19)
The Man: Frank Francisco
The Pitch: Splitter, 1.45 wSF/c
The Health Report: Looking good
The Comments: Mr. Inconsistent has all the ingredients to be a successful closer but he needs to put it all together and keep his head screwed on straight. The 29.5% ground-ball rate from ’09 scares me more than a little bit.
The Back-up(s): C.J. Wilson, Chris Ray
The Future: Tanner Scheppers
11. Baltimore Orioles (21)
The Man: Mike Gonzalez
The Pitch: Slider, 1.09 wSL/c
The Health Report: Wonky back, and he missed big parts of ’07 and ’08 (TJ surgery)
The Comments: Gonzalez got good money to sign as the club’s closer but he played second fiddle to Rafael Soriano in Atlanta last season and the former Pirate blew seven saves in 17 opportunities. Even so, he has the stuff to close if his control is anywhere close to average.
The Back-up(s): Jim Johnson, Koji Uehara
The Future: Kam Mickolio or Brandon Erbe
12. Toronto Blue Jays (27)
The Man: Kevin Gregg
The Pitch: 92 mph fastball, 0.59 wFB/c
The Health Report: Healthy
The Comments: Gregg may walk a rotting tight rope during each save opportunity, but the dude is durable after appearing in 70+ games each of the past three seasons. He’s also blown 16 saves over the past two seasons (68 opportunities). Jason Frasor is likely trade bait by the end of the spring if the Jays get a good offer and there are clubs that could use his help.
The Back-up(s): Scott Downs, Jason Frasor
The Future: Zach Stewart and/or Danny Farquhar
13. Cleveland Indians (29)
The Man: Kerry Wood
The Pitch: Curveball, 1.61 wCB/c
The Health Report: Down and out for 6-8 weeks (lat muscle)
The Comments: Wood knows the infirmary well, but this injury may be a good thing. The club is not going to win in 2010 so some of the young pitchers might as well gain some valuable, late-game experience. Chris Perez has the pedigree and is coming off of a successful sophomore season, but he also has control (4.26 BB/9) and gopher (1.26 HR/9) issues.
The Back-up(s): Chris Perez, Jensen Lewis, Rafael Perez
The Future: Chris Perez and/or Jess Todd
14. Minnesota Twins (30)
The Man: Joe Nathan
The Pitch: 93 mph fastball, 1.66 wFB/c
The Health Report: Done for 2010 and into 2011
The Comments: Nathan was trying to avoid it, but finally gave in on Sunday and is headed for Tommy John surgery. Mijares is young and inexperienced, but he has a good fastball/slider combination. Guerrier is more about pitchability than pure stuff but he could have success pounding the strike zone with three quality pitches.
The Back-up(s): Jose Mijares, Matt Guerrier
The Future: Carlos Gutierrez and/or Billy Bullock
Up Next: The National League Closers
Marc Hulet has been writing at FanGraphs since 2008. His work focuses on prospects and fantasy. Follow him on Twitter @marchulet.
What about Anthony Slama as a future option? The guy puts up some Ks but never gets mentioned when the discussion turns to closer material.
El Guapo
Nice article, just wanted to point up that Delcarmen is not really a backup in Boston. They don’t have much faith in him anymore because of his performance last year (even though he was “injured”) and his velocity drop. They’d turn to Bard, Okajima, and R. Ramirez before Delcarmen.
Another “The Future” option for Baltimore: Luis Lebron. He’s a fireballer who’s always had the strikeouts, but used to allow too many walks. However, he made some significant strides in improving his control last year and turned some heads in Spring Training.
I’m not sure that Andrew Bailey is “all systems go” when he’s currently shut down with tennis elbow. I know they say he’s only out for a week, but tennis elbow can be a nagging problem.
Not only was he shut down for a sore elbow but he had Tommy John surgery on that elbow in college. That’s something worth being wary about.
Yeah, once I reached that point I took the rest of the article with large grains of salt. How can you possibly research this article and say that Bailey is “all systems go?”
With the report of Holland starting the year at AAA, it looks like C.J. Wilson will be in the rotation, not the pen.
I wonder if the rest of this article was any good? I stopped reading here…
The Back-up(s): Joba Chamberlain
The Future: Joba Chamberlain
Come on.
You expect different?
That’s a confirmed kill. Jon Heyman tweeted yesterday that Joba is out of the running for the rotation.
http://www.yardbarker.com/mlb/article_external/Heyman_Joba_out_of_the_rotation_mix/2293835?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
Heyman said this, but there’s been a lot of speculation about how reliable it is. (It’s not like writers haven’t in the past declared something that ended up completely false — like half of all trade rumors.) Until the team confirms, it’s still an open question.
Heyman said this… which means it is clearly not true? This man has no inside knowledge of anything to do with the Yankees.
Marc and Jon Heyman eagerly await your apology.
I’m not sure what the issue is… Joba is the best bet to back-up Rivera right now, and he’s also the future guy…?
So under a 30 inning pretext, he’s the best available closer in our system? Hughes would have been a better guess, Melancon or Robertson might have shown me something… Joba is just a lazy answer.
Lazy? Do you consider chosing the player most likely to get the job “lazy”?
It’s not lazy, it’s correct. If it was a guess, it was a good one; “Hughes” clearly would not have been a better one. The right answer isn’t any less right, or valuable, just because it comports with the convention wisdom.
It would be nice if the highly-opinionated commentariot around here returned to acknowledge when they were wrong (as the writers here have to from time to time) but I guess they’re too busy posting new comments to revisit their old failures.
Minnesota: It looks like John Rauch has the inside track right now, not Guerrier or Mijares, though I might like Mijares more than the others. Also there much rumbling in Minnesota about trading prospects for Heath Bell.
Don’t forget about Pat Neshek. If he is as effective as he was before the injury He is defiantly in the conversation. I doubt they would trade since they have so much depth in the pen.
I defiantly never expected to see Joe Morgan posting here.
http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/31046
Sounds like Neshek might open the year on the DL though and Liriano is also getting considered for save op’s
He’s in the mix too if healthy. My main point was that Rauch is the early favorite if you can read anything into Gardenhire’s comments and that there are more contenders than Guerrier and Mijares.
Neshak pitched better before his injury than Rauch has, imo. I’m not especially enamored with Rauch. But I’m trying to forecast what Gardenhire will do, not what I would do.
Mijares and Guerrier, and Rauch isn’t even listed as a possibility? Rauch is the MOST likely of the internal candidates to take over the job. How can you not list the frontrunner?
Nice summary. I’d list Jon Rauch as a back-up in Minnesota too.
Wow, just realized…how often do we see every team in the AL having their closer set in stone so early? If not for Nathan, every team would already have the job locked down.
All but Nathan are not set in stone! Thats just what this joker thinks, When did Cito Gaston say Kevin Gregg was set as the closer, if I’m not mistaken Downs has yet to allow a run, while Gregg is sporting a 5.40ERA and Frasor’s is 8.31 each so far, doesn’t sound like Gregg is the closer All systems go on Andrew Bailey, you might as well take a dump on this article
HAHA, good one Nelbowski!!!
I believe the word you’re looking for is “definitely”, not defiantly, Mr. Morgan. (Who learned that guy how to write?)
Man, some harsh critics on this site….definitely agree that Rauch is in the discussion for closer. But I don’t believe anything until after the first 5 -10 saves if the team isn’t heavily invested in the closer. Look at last year. Ryan Franklin and Andrew Bailey were considered at best #3 in line for saves (Chris Perez/Jason Motte and Joey Devine/Brad Ziegler).
Glancing at the AL this year, most teams are fully invested in their current closer. The wildcards are: Chicago White Sox (seem ready to move on), Blue Jays, Indians and Twins. Jenks and Perez definitely have the inside track in Chicago and Cleveland. Who knows with Toronto – I could see 2-3 guys with 10+ saves there as they play ‘ride the hot hand’. The Twins are a toss-up too – they may start with Rauch but decent chance he’s out of there by end of April. Guerrier and Mijares are definitely still in the running….
I’d add the Angels into the mix only b/c they invested so much in Rodney in the offseason and Fuentes is a lefty. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Scioscia flip their roles if/when Fuentes gives up a few bombs.
I really wish the Twins would give Anthony Slama a look in the late innings and if he’s succesful move him to the ninth. His strikout numbers are too good in the minors to be a fluke even if he doesn’t throw much harder than 91-92. His k/9 in the minors is something around 13, which makes up for his subpar walk rate (about 4.5/9).
For the future Alex Burnett should be listed. He had an ERA below 2 last year in double and single A while striking out about a batter per inning.
Caston has now committed to Frasor starting the season as closer. But we will see how that works out as he has been the least effective this spring.
For Seattle, the future is Josh Fields. He was the Mariners first round draft pick as a closer out of college. He got a late start to his pro career, coming in over confident and ill prepared, he struggled in double A. But this spring he has shown he understands the importance of putting in the work. Should see a September call-up.