Archive for Closers

Updates: Napoli & Toronto’s Closer

Well, so much for that. Two of my recent posts were rendered obsolete or close to it in fell swoop yesterday. Time for some updates…

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Cleaning Out The In Box

A bunch of recent minor signings and news items probably don’t deserve full posts but might be relevant in deeper leagues. Let’s clear them out!

Jose Arredondo
is healthy
Arredondo is finally good to go after a two-year battle with his elbow. You might wonder who this dude is, but remember his excellent 2008 with the Angels (3.10 FIP), when he was good enough to close for most teams. And then remember how bad Francisco Cordero is (4.53 xFIP last year), and you’ll know that Arredondo may just vulture a save or two this year. Sure, Aroldis Chapman is starting in the pen, too, and is in line in front of Arredondo, but he’s also got the ability to start. File this name away, at the very worst he may be useful in deeper leagues that use holds.

Shane Victorino
was called out by Charlie Manuel
While Manuel may not be right to call out his player publicly, the fact that he mentioned that Victorino was swinging for the fences too often was interesting. Victorino had the worst BABIP of his career last year, and the highest fly-ball rate. These things are related, since the BABIP on fly balls is poor. Give Victorino a few home runs less and push his batting average a few ticks higher if he’s listening to his manager. Either way, he’s a decent bounce-back pick, and always shows a little power and a good amount of speed. Under-rated if you ask me.

Chien-Ming Wang to be ready for spring training
He hasn’t been useful for anything other than Wang jokes since about 2007 (or 2008 if you want to be generous), but Wang says his shoulder feels good and that he’d like to compete for a role in the rotation in spring training. Carlos Silva had some similar statistics and came to the weaker league and performed well – this Wang may not be done Chunging yet. Don’t forget about him in your deeper leagues, even if his lack of strikeouts makes his upside a little less palatable.


Who’s Closing For The Blue Jays?

The Blue Jays were poised to lose their three best relief pitchers this offseason with Jason Frasor, Scott Downs, and Kevin Gregg all set to become free agents. Frasor accepted arbitration and will return in 2011, but Downs landed a three-year deal with the Angels and Gregg found two years in Baltimore. That left a considerable hole in Toronto’s bullpen, which they’ve addressed by signing Octavio Dotel and more recently Jon Rauch. Both have the “proven closer” tag (Dotel moreso than Rauch), so which one will see the save opportunities next season?

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Soriano The Setup Man

As they are wont to do, the Yankees recently identified a hole on their ballclub and shored it up by rebuilding the engine when a simple tune-up would have sufficed. Rafael Soriano as the beneficiary of their latest splurge, becoming the game’s fifth highest paid relief pitcher on an average annual value basis, and he won’t even get the responsibility of working the ninth inning. That will still belong to the unparalleled Mariano Rivera, and it takes a bite out of Soriano’s fantasy stock. It goes without saying that he’s a must have in leagues that count holds, but what if yours doesn’t?

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Who’s Closing In Tampa?

The Rays have had the misfortune of seeing almost their entire bullpen leave via free agency this offseason, including All-World closer Rafael Soriano and dynamite setup man Joaquin Benoit. Andrew Friedman has had to rebuild his relief corps on the fly this winter, and it’s a process that’s still ongoing. He’s added a host of relievers in trades and a few through free agency, but at the moment there doesn’t appear to be a clear cut favorite for that almighty ninth inning role.

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Is Anyone* On The Royals Worth Drafting? (Part I)

* Anyone not named Billy Butler and Joakim Soria, obviously.

The Royals traded their two longest tenured players in separate deals this winter, first shipping David DeJesus to the Athletics before sending Zack Greinke to the Brewers in what probably qualifies as the winter’s biggest blockbuster. That has left the team’s roster pretty barren in terms of fantasy talent, at least outside of Butler and Soria. Let’s dig through the team’s 40-man roster and see if any of their notable pitchers are worth drafting in a standard 12-team league. We’ll cover the position players tomorrow.

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The Rockies’ Backup Closer

We know that Huston Street will close for the Rockies in 2011 assuming he’s healthy, but that’s not the safest of assumptions to make. The former AL Rookie of the Year missed just about the first three months of the 2010 season with a shoulder issue, then battled an oblique strain as Colorado was making a last gasp run at a postseason berth in late September. Should Street go down for an extended period of time next season, manager Jim Tracy will have his pick of several top notch setup men to use in the ninth inning. Let’s take a look at each, sorted by 2010 gmLI (average LI when the player enters the game).

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Bobby Jenks And The Boston Bullpen

Red Sox GM Theo Epstein has done a bang up job strengthening his team this offseason, and I’m not just talking about the Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford pickups. He’s remade one of the game’s least effective bullpens in part by picking up righty killer Dan Wheeler and former White Sox closer Bobby Jenks as free agents. In winter that has seen three-year contracts handed out to relievers like candy, the Sox got Jenks and Wheeler for three contract years combined. What does this mean for saves in Boston?

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Another Day, Another Couple of New Closers

Two tidbits of news today might mean two new closers – about par for the course at baseball’s most volatile position. Let’s take quick look at the (possible) moves and what they mean.

Chicago White Sox Non-Tender Bobby Jenks
Jenks actually put up the second-best strikeout rate and the second-best groundball rate of his career last year, and though he missed some time with injury, he reversed a mini-trend in his velocity when he showed the third-best fastball velocity of his career. All of this, added to some really poor luck on batted balls (.368 BABIP) and moderately bad luck stranding men on the bases (65.4%), and he had one of those seasons where his overall stats (4.44 ERA, 1.37 WHIP) were out of line with better-looking fielding-independent numbers (2.59 FIP, 2.62 xFIP). Hey, it happens a lot in 50-inning stretches out of the bullpen. In any case, though he’s twice crossed the 2.0 WAR threshold, he probably wouldn’t have been worth the $10 million an arbitration panel may have awarded him, so it made sense for the White Sox to let him go.

Or, it makes sense because they already have a better, cheaper option in place. Matt Thornton may only have one pitch, and he may have had a reputation for blowing saves in the past, but he works that one pitch well, did decently when given save chances this past year (three saves, none blown in September), and only costs $3 million this year. Judging from his three straight years with double-digit strikeout rates and walk rates under three per nine, he should make for a solid buy at closer in 2011 drafts. Only health can keep that fastball from booming.

Jenks should also make a fine buy for a team that isn’t forced to pay him $10 million. Perhaps the Rays would like to look at him as their closer on a short-term, low-money, make-good deal? That would make three new closers possibly minted today.

The Angels Close to Signing Hisanori Takahashi
Given the history of the Angels, this one is far from a lock (the deal’s not even done yet). They’ve run through back-end bullpen options like popcorn at a blockbuster over the past few years, and they still own one of those would-be closers, Fernando Rodney. On top of that, Takahashi can start or relieve, and his overall stats are not so overwhelming that they scream ‘closer.’

But that’s not to say he couldn’t easily end up being a great bargain closer in 2011. For one, the Angels starting staff is full. Jered Weaver, Dan Haren and Ervin Santana are locks, Joel Piniero should be fine, and the number five can easily be (under)manned by Scott Kazmir and Trevor Bell. Also, Takahashi’s numbers were much better in relief. In 57.1 relief innings, he had a 9.42 K/9, 3.45 BB/9, 2.59 FIP and 3.54 xFIP. Those numbers actually rivaled those of Francisco Rodriguez and led AmazinAvenue to award Takahashi the title of Best Reliever for the past season. So it looks like the Angels want him as a reliever, which is good, since Tak2 hasn’t always been the most durable of pitchers.

Now the question is if the Angel’s management will have Tak2 close over Rodney. Given that the incumbent hasn’t struck out a batter per inning for a couple years now, and hasn’t ever shown a walk rate better than average, the answer should be easy enough. Then again, he has almost seven miles of fastball velocity on Takahashi, and gas has made better men than Mike Scioscia go a little loopy.


ADP Crowdsourcing: Joe Nathan

In today’s edition of ADP Crowdsourcing, I take another suggestion from reader Dale. Someone get this man a free hat, or another gift of some kind! Results from last week’s round of voting will be up at noon (eastern) today, so don’t forget to check that out.

Joe Nathan has long been a fantasy stud, because he can give you close to 100 strikeouts a year from the relief pitcher position. Plus, he’s given you 35+ saves in every year he’s active for the Twins, and his low ERA combined with high innings count can make a huge impact on your total pitching numbers, compared to what some other closers can do for you.

If I had to complain about Nathan, I’d moan about how he doesn’t get enough ground balls, but he’s still likely to be above the 40% mark in that area, so it’s hard to get worked up about it. I’d also mention that Nathan’s velocity was slipping a bit even before his injury, but he was still able to get batters to swing and miss at a high rate. Again, nothing to really complain about.

Nathan’s case is going to be a very interesting test, because he didn’t even see the field during the 2010 campaign, and this will be the first time we’ve tried a closer. I’m expecting a fairly large deviation on this one. Will Nathan still be viewed as a top flight closer on a good team, or will owners be a little skittish? That’s for you to decide.

Below is a link to the voting form, and please read the wording carefully. This is not where you would draft him, but where you think he’ll be drafted in most leagues. For the voting, we’re assuming a 12-team standard league, using 5×5 scoring.

To submit your vote, click here.