Who’s Closing For The Blue Jays?
The Blue Jays were poised to lose their three best relief pitchers this offseason with Jason Frasor, Scott Downs, and Kevin Gregg all set to become free agents. Frasor accepted arbitration and will return in 2011, but Downs landed a three-year deal with the Angels and Gregg found two years in Baltimore. That left a considerable hole in Toronto’s bullpen, which they’ve addressed by signing Octavio Dotel and more recently Jon Rauch. Both have the “proven closer” tag (Dotel moreso than Rauch), so which one will see the save opportunities next season?
Like most relievers, both Dotel and Rauch have their flaws. Dotel has a massive platoon split (5.92 FIP vs. LHB since 2008, 3.29 vs. RHB) and puts quite a few runners on base (1.32 WHIP since ’08) because of walk issues (4.10 uIBB/9 since ’08). Rauch’s platoon split isn’t as pronounced but it exists (4.06 FIP vs. LHB since ’08, 3.26 FIP vs. RHB), and he also puts a bunch of runners on (also a 1.32 WHIP since ’08). It’s just that his come in the form of hits rather than walks (2.26 uIBB/9 since ’08). Both guys are extreme fly ball pitchers (33.2% GB since ’08 for Dotel, 35.1% for Rauch) moving into a park that inflates homer output by about 15% according to Stat Corner. But similar to what I said yesterday, I don’t think that will be a huge issue since these guys will only throw about 35 innings in their home park next summer, but it’s an issue nonetheless.
Dotel has a gigantic advantage in the strikeout department, as the guy can still get swings and misses with the best of them. His 11.27 K/9 since ’08 is third best in the game (behind only Carlos Marmol and Jonathan Broxton, min. 150 IP), and his 13.0% swinging strikes during that time is well above average the league average as well. Rauch is much more pedestrian when it comes to strike three. His 7.27 K/9 since ’08 (6.70 since ’09) and 8.8% swings and misses (8.1% since ’09) are pretty forgettable when it comes to late-inning relievers. Above league average (ever so slightly) for sure, but they don’t stand out.
Dotel comes off as having more blow-up potential given his age and the gigantic struggles against lefties in a division loaded with great left-handed hitters, but that alone probably isn’t enough to lose him the closer’s job just yet. Money can talk in these cases, but both guys received similar contracts (Dotel gets $3M next year, Rauch $3.5M and both have options with six-figure buyouts). If one was set to make considerably more money than the other next year, then maybe that would be a factor worth considering. But they don’t, so let’s ignore the pay scale.
The wildcard in all of this is new Blue Jays manager John Farrell. We have no idea what kind of manager he’ll be. He could be an old school guy who prefers the pitcher with the longer track record, or he could be a new school kind of guy that will use Dotel as a right-specialist strikeout machine in the seventh or eighth innings, allowing Rauch to start the ninth nice and clean with no one on base. Maybe he’s neither and gives the job to Frasor since he has tenure.
Unless the Jays come out and outright declare that so-and-so will be their closer before draft day, I’m leaning towards Dotel because he’s been worked the ninth inning for various teams for what feels like an eternity. It definitely a fluid situation though, Rauch will be right there looking over his shoulder should he falter. Either way, neither guy is worthy of a high pick, at best they’re third closers on a typical fantasy team that could be swapped in and out at will. I definitely wouldn’t recommend carrying both on their team simultaneously (the whole “draft a shaky closer and his backup” idea), I’d rather have neither.
Mike writes about the Yankees at River Ave. Blues and baseball in general at CBS Sports.
Personally I don’t see either man closing by the end of the year. David Purcey if he can continue to grow as a reliever has the ability. One of the current starters, particularly Zach Stewart could also be converted for a long term solution.
Couple things here. First off, I know it’s nitpicky, but you butchered your last paragraph. The second and third sentences ruined your concluding stanza. A bit of editing goes a long way! Second, Dennis, Purcey is not closer material. At all. He’s a pitcher with mediocre stuff who benefited from a low babip last year. He’s a 7th inning lefty, with low velocity and a history of control problems. I like him as a Scott Downs lite, but he’s no Billy Wagner.
Go Jays!
I couldn’t disagree with you more about Purcey. Especially that he has mediocre stuff for a lefty.
Nonetheless, as long as Frasor is kept away from the job, it’ll probably work out.
How is averaging 92.2 mph on his fastball considered low velocity?
purcey is definitely not closer material right now (and probably never will be). he’s shown an ability to miss bats, but he’s an extreme fly ball pitcher with poor control. unless he somehow fixes one of those things, or manages to up his k/9 to 12+, he’s just a worse version of dotel/gregg but from the left side.
I made no mention of any of what you said. Why are you replying to me?
that was a mistake…was supposed to be to Big Jgke
I think his concluding paragraph was clear and non-contradictory.
AA was on the radio tonight and said it will be Dotel or Rauch closing. Which one it will be will be decided by their spring training performances, he said, so there isn’t going to be a declaration a head of time to help with fantasy draft picks.
It is clear neither Frasor nor Purcey are viewed as closers by the Jays so that line of thought is really moot at this point.
Yes I heard him on the radio too. The two things that went through my mind when he made no mention of Frasor for the closer’s role were:
(1) Thank goodness!
(2) I wonder if not mentioning him as even a possible closer helps their likely upcoming arbitration case with Frasor???
That makes sense. Frasor has a good arm, but seems to lack the mental toughness to be a closer. I would use Dotel as a closer, Rauch and Frasor as setup men, Camp and Janssen as 7th (and sometimes 8th) inning men, and Purcey and Carlson as LOOGYs-plus. There should be a lot of depth relievers ready to step in if necessary (Rzep, Villaneuva, Stewart, et al). Everything subject to change, of course, depending on how the relievers perform during the season.
The bullpen has potential to be quite solid, actually.
who’s catching?
http://ducksonthepondkid.wordpress.com/2011/01/22/so-whats-the-deal-with-the-vernon-wells-mike-napoli-deal/