Young players all around today, three of ’em for your fantasy squad…

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On Friday, I posted an article on SP/RP qualified relievers. In the comments, Andrew asked my take on Sam LeCure and/or Lance Lynn, so I will look at both now.

Note: I am gone for the week and scheduled and wrote this article ahead of time so some of the stats may be a couple days old.

Sam LeCure (0.0% ESPN) – Lecure has been relegated to the bullpen after making a few starts in April. As a reliever, he has been lights out with an ERA of 0.71, 0.75 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 1.8 BB/9 and 3 Holds over 24.1 IP in 16 games. An over 4:1 SO:BB ratio is always nice from any pitcher.

He has been helped by a 0.217 BABIP and 3.7% HR/FB%. Even though his FIP (2.49) and xFIP (3.22) as a reliever are several times larger than his ERA, they are still respectable.

One main issue holding down his value is that he is not being used in a way to pick up Holds. Since his last Hold on May 16, he has only been used in one game that the Reds held a lead and it was 5-0 win.

Lecure is a nice SP/RP source for Ks and can help pad an owner’s WHIP and ERA. His main drawback is that he is not being used in a way to pick up Holds.

Lance Lynn (0.1% ESPN) – After making a couple starts in early June, Lynn has been in the Cardinals bullpen where he has thrived. In nine games as a reliever, he has a 2.45 ERA, 11.7 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, 0.89 WHIP and 2 Holds. His ERA is in line with his FIP (2.76) and xFIP (1.86).

The high K rate looks to regress a bit after looking at some other numbers. First his SwgStr% is 9.1%, which normally equates to a K/9 of 7.5 K/9, not 9.7 K/9 (I had to used combined SP and RP data since there are no splits for SwgStr%). The 7.5 K/9 values is closer to his average AAA K/9 value of 7.9. All of the AAA numbers where as a SP, but they give an idea of his K ability.

To start the season, Lynn was not used in a way to accumulate Holds. His usuage has changed a bit recently where he has accumulated his only two Holds of the season in 2 of his last 4 outings.

Lynn looks to be a nice source of WHIP, ERA and Holds. He should help with Ks, but probably not at the level he has so far this season.

I have profiled several SP/RP qualified relievers so far this season (here and here and here) with David Hernandez currently being the best out of the bunch. Today I am going to dig a little deeper and look at some SP/RP relievers on the fringe of being owned.

Alfredo Aceves (0.6% owned ESPN) – On the surface, Aceves looks to have pitched OK as a reliever this season with 7 Holds, 2.64 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP. These stats are all smoke and mirrors. The rate stats are being driven by a low BABIP of 0.188. His FIP (4.72) and xFIP (4.60) are much higher.

The one item he has been able to improve has a reliever is his walks. As a starter his walk rate is 5.57 BB/9, but as a reliever it is down to 2.64 BB/9.

I would not count on him padding your rate stats. I could see him being a decent source of counting stats like Holds (Boston should have plenty of leads) or Wins.

Daniel McCutchen (0.1% owned ESPN) – Like Aceves, McCutchen has some nice stats as a reliever, a 3-1 record, 8 Holds, a 1.20 WHIP and a 2.19 ERA. His low ERA is being driven down by a low BABIP (0.265) and HR/FB (6.3%). McCutchen has not been much of a strikeout pitcher in his time in the majors (4.9 K/9) and has walked a few too many batters (3.1 BB/9). All these stats lead to a FIP (3.87), xFIP (4.34) and SIERA (4.13) that are each about twice his ERA.

The only reason I see to own him is if an owner is in desperate need of Holds.

Aaron Laffey (0.0% owned ESPN) – Another player with a nice and pretty ERA (2.39). His ERA is not being suppessed by a super low BABIP (0.280) or HR/FB (13.9%). Instead, he has some how stranded 91.3% of the base runners allowed this season. Sorry for sounding like a broken record, but his FIP (4.61), xFIP (4.00) and SIERA (3.83) are all a bit higher than his ERA. With a K/BB of 1.75, he doesn’t provide much promise.

Also, he is generally not even used as a setup man, so his chances of generating Holds is at a minimum.

Final thoughts

All 3 of these pitchers have an ERA that is not sustainable and provide little in the way of Ks. If you are looking for some SP/RP qualified pitchers, I would look for one mention in one of my previous articles.

For those deep league teams still in the hunt for the money, congratulations. Unfortunately, I cannot enjoy that same position in my own league. I do, however, have two exciting options that could potentially increase your chances of finishing in that coveted money spot.

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Nine pitches; six strikes. That’s all it took for Joe Nathan to rack up his five saves of the season, and second since reclaiming the closer role over Matt Capps. Capps had been terrible in July; allowing seven runs in 5.2 innings and failing to record a strikeout. Nathan, however, has also struggled this season after attempting to return from Tommy John Surgery, and even managed to miss a month this season with elbow issues. Since returning from elbow soreness, Nathan has been lights out for the Minnesota Twins. Now that Nathan has been reinstalled as the closer, what are the chances he keeps the job for the rest of the season?
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While most are taking a little breather from their fantasy baseball teams during the All Star Break, it can’t hurt to scour your waiver wire and see who’s still out there that may help you out for your second half push.  Players coming back from injury are always a good target as well as players recently called back up from the minors.  Here are two for you to consider… Read the rest of this entry »

You’ve heard about Howard Bender’s draft. And you’ll hear about Jason Catania’s draft and Jeff Zimmerman’s draft. Because we all got together and decided to pick six, deep league style. Our CI, MI, OF, C, SP and RP all had to come from a pool of players that was owned in less than 10% of Yahoo leagues. Here are my picks and why. In the order I drafted. I had the third pick of four.

Chris Heisey
A disclaimer about deep leagues and waiver wires: One thing you want are live bodies with some upside. It’s the usual caveat. So Heisey has flaws — he’s now struck out in 18.2% of his at-bats in his first 396 plate appearances, so he might have that flaw. Then again, his minor league rates were closer to 20% most years. He could improve in that category. His BABIP is fine (.308) and though his current ISO (.209) would rank high in his minor-league work, it would still fit. And he’s got a .192 ISO so far in the majors. He stole 27 bases against two caught-stealings in High-A, and had very good success rates all along. So he has good speed. And power. And could improve his strikeout rate. And is battling for playing time with a guy with a .245 career batting average and a strikeout rate over 33%. Yes please.

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We’re now halfway through the season, so let’s update our rankings of the guys shutting things down in the ninth inning. Here are the preseason, May, and June rankings for reference, as well as the saves leaderboard. This rankings are based on three things (in no particular order): current performance, expected future performance, and job security. That last one is important for closers but not always easy to gauge. There hasn’t been a ton of movement in the last month, but there’s always some…

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Unless your closer’s name is Mariano Rivera, there’s a possibility he’s going to get hurt at some point during the season. Pitchers are a fragile bunch. It happens. Two teams have been hit especially hard in that area this season.

If you had told the Phillies and Dodgers at the start of the season that their closers on June 30th would be Antonio Bastardo and Javy Guerra you’d have been laughed out of the building by Ruben Amaro and Ned Colletti. Yet, here we are. The two teams haven’t needed their star closers much; the Phillies would be in first with me at the back of their pen, and the Dodgers just aren’t good enough for an elite closer to matter. But, to the fantasy consumer, they mean plenty. Let’s take a look at the two new faces.

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We’re getting close to the halfway point of the season for most teams (Game 81, not the All-Star break), so now is a good time to step back and look at some closer workloads. A lot of times a manager will run his top reliever out there game after game early in the season only to have it come back to haunt them down the stretch. They might have to ease off them a bit or deal with a prolonged slump. Happens all the time. Let’s list the number of appearances each closer had made so far, as well as extrapolate that out into a full season workload. Forgive me, but the following table does not include last night’s games…

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