It’s not September yet, but it’s close enough. Here’s are our August closer rankings, which can take you back through the rest of the season, and here’s the saves leaderboard for reference. September call-ups are right around the corner, and last year we caught our first glimpse of Jordan Walden in the ninth inning during the season’s final month. I don’t think there are any closer options coming up from the minors this month, but stranger things have happened.
The Pittsburgh Pirates had a rather nice problem on their hands headed into Spring training as both Joel Hanrahan and Evan Meek had spectacular 2010 campaigns and both arguably deserved the right to close out games. This battle presented fantasy managers with the proverbial high risk/low cost option for late-round-save-sniping and in many leagues, both players were drafted as the situation played out. Although Hanrahan was a disaster in Spring with an ERA near seven and giving up several gopher balls, he no doubt bought Meek a steak dinner when Clint Hurdle handed him closer duties. What has happened since has been a pretty fantastic season for Joel Hanrahan.
You’ve surely heard by now, but Carlos Marmol blew the routinest of saves last night, coughing up a three-run lead against the Astros. He got a fly ball for the first out, but then came a single, a wild pitch (runner to second), another single (runner to third), a walk to load the bases, then a walk-off grand slam by Brian Bogusevic. Closers blow saves, sometimes spectacularly, but the fact that Marmol temporarily lost his job last month makes this a little more interesting.
When the Mets dealt Francisco Rodriguez to the Brewers last month, veteran ninth inning guy Jason Isringhausen stepped into the closer’s role for the Mets. Aside from a pair of meltdowns earlier this month, he did the job admirably and notched career save #300 last night. He’s 22nd on the all-time saves list, and if nothing else, that total shows longevity in a role that generally has no staying power at all. It doesn’t appear that Izzy will get many saves beyond 300, however.
Surprisingly, there weren’t any closers dealt last weekend at the trade deadline despite plenty of rumors, so the rankings don’t change all that much nor are there many new names. Here are July’s rankings, which can take you back through the start of the season, and here’s the saves leaderboard for reference.
One of the trends fantasy baseball has witnessed over the last few years is the decline in value of the closer. Not so much that closers are mere one category contributors, as we all know that not to be the case, but that, with the volatility at the position, saves have been much easier to come by on the waiver wire throughout the season. Last year, we saw 14 teams change closers during the course of the season and that doesn’t even include the long term injury replacements for Huston Street and Brad Lidge. It seemed like every time you scoured the waiver wire in need of saves, there was someone there. This year, the trend seems to be bucking in the opposite direction and those that thought they could bypass reliable closers in their drafts and pick up saves throughout the year are finding it more of a struggle than they anticipated. Read the rest of this entry »
The trade deadline is less than five days away plus some closers are getting healthy, so let’s recap some of the recent/potential movement and how it may impact the fantasy landscape…
Young players all around today, three of ’em for your fantasy squad…
On Friday, I posted an article on SP/RP qualified relievers. In the comments, Andrew asked my take on Sam LeCure and/or Lance Lynn, so I will look at both now.
Note: I am gone for the week and scheduled and wrote this article ahead of time so some of the stats may be a couple days old.
Sam LeCure (0.0% ESPN) – Lecure has been relegated to the bullpen after making a few starts in April. As a reliever, he has been lights out with an ERA of 0.71, 0.75 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 1.8 BB/9 and 3 Holds over 24.1 IP in 16 games. An over 4:1 SO:BB ratio is always nice from any pitcher.
He has been helped by a 0.217 BABIP and 3.7% HR/FB%. Even though his FIP (2.49) and xFIP (3.22) as a reliever are several times larger than his ERA, they are still respectable.
One main issue holding down his value is that he is not being used in a way to pick up Holds. Since his last Hold on May 16, he has only been used in one game that the Reds held a lead and it was 5-0 win.
Lecure is a nice SP/RP source for Ks and can help pad an owner’s WHIP and ERA. His main drawback is that he is not being used in a way to pick up Holds.
Lance Lynn (0.1% ESPN) – After making a couple starts in early June, Lynn has been in the Cardinals bullpen where he has thrived. In nine games as a reliever, he has a 2.45 ERA, 11.7 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, 0.89 WHIP and 2 Holds. His ERA is in line with his FIP (2.76) and xFIP (1.86).
The high K rate looks to regress a bit after looking at some other numbers. First his SwgStr% is 9.1%, which normally equates to a K/9 of 7.5 K/9, not 9.7 K/9 (I had to used combined SP and RP data since there are no splits for SwgStr%). The 7.5 K/9 values is closer to his average AAA K/9 value of 7.9. All of the AAA numbers where as a SP, but they give an idea of his K ability.
To start the season, Lynn was not used in a way to accumulate Holds. His usuage has changed a bit recently where he has accumulated his only two Holds of the season in 2 of his last 4 outings.
Lynn looks to be a nice source of WHIP, ERA and Holds. He should help with Ks, but probably not at the level he has so far this season.
I have profiled several SP/RP qualified relievers so far this season (here and here and here) with David Hernandez currently being the best out of the bunch. Today I am going to dig a little deeper and look at some SP/RP relievers on the fringe of being owned.
Alfredo Aceves (0.6% owned ESPN) – On the surface, Aceves looks to have pitched OK as a reliever this season with 7 Holds, 2.64 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP. These stats are all smoke and mirrors. The rate stats are being driven by a low BABIP of 0.188. His FIP (4.72) and xFIP (4.60) are much higher.
The one item he has been able to improve has a reliever is his walks. As a starter his walk rate is 5.57 BB/9, but as a reliever it is down to 2.64 BB/9.
I would not count on him padding your rate stats. I could see him being a decent source of counting stats like Holds (Boston should have plenty of leads) or Wins.
Daniel McCutchen (0.1% owned ESPN) – Like Aceves, McCutchen has some nice stats as a reliever, a 3-1 record, 8 Holds, a 1.20 WHIP and a 2.19 ERA. His low ERA is being driven down by a low BABIP (0.265) and HR/FB (6.3%). McCutchen has not been much of a strikeout pitcher in his time in the majors (4.9 K/9) and has walked a few too many batters (3.1 BB/9). All these stats lead to a FIP (3.87), xFIP (4.34) and SIERA (4.13) that are each about twice his ERA.
The only reason I see to own him is if an owner is in desperate need of Holds.
Aaron Laffey (0.0% owned ESPN) – Another player with a nice and pretty ERA (2.39). His ERA is not being suppessed by a super low BABIP (0.280) or HR/FB (13.9%). Instead, he has some how stranded 91.3% of the base runners allowed this season. Sorry for sounding like a broken record, but his FIP (4.61), xFIP (4.00) and SIERA (3.83) are all a bit higher than his ERA. With a K/BB of 1.75, he doesn’t provide much promise.
Also, he is generally not even used as a setup man, so his chances of generating Holds is at a minimum.
Final thoughts
All 3 of these pitchers have an ERA that is not sustainable and provide little in the way of Ks. If you are looking for some SP/RP qualified pitchers, I would look for one mention in one of my previous articles.
