Archive for Closers

• Just as Heath Bell looked like he was climbing back into fantasy owners’ good graces, he crumbled faster than the Mrs. Fields cookie I’m gnawing on while sitting on the floor writing this at BWI (surprisingly busy for a Sunday night). While he’s been frustrating for fantasy owners this year, his recent uptick in velocity hasn’t reversed over the past week and his June peripherals (6.0 K/BB, 2.54 xFIP) still were the best of his 2012 season (and it wasn’t even really close). As has been said in numerous Bullpen Reports, he will have a long leash at the back end of the Miami bullpen thanks to his contract, so expect to see him still patrolling the ninth if the immediate aftermath of the all-star break. An interesting wild card that might stir up some trouble for Bell if he continues to regress back to early season form — Juan Oviedo (formerly Leo Nunez) is eligible to return from his suspension on July 23rd and manager Ozzie Guillen did not rule out the former closer (career 2.6 K/BB, 4.25 xFIP) seeing a few save chances once he returns. I wouldn’t rush to grab Oviedo in shallow leagues given his history of mediocrity outside of 2010, but Bell owners in deeper or NL-only ones might think about handcuffing him during the fantasy lull over the next few days just to cover all their bases (something the Cardinals did against Bell today — hey-o!).

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• Drew Storen looked great in his first rehab outing today needing just eight pitches to complete his perfect inning. Tyler Clippard is still expected to hold onto the ninth inning duties for the Nationals, but Storen is on track to return to the Nationals after the break and is worth keeping an eye on if Clippard were to struggle.

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Apologies for a shorter Bullpen Report tonight but wishing all of you a wonderful holiday!

• Heath Bell entered the 10th inning today for a save against the Brewers but wasn’t able to close the door, giving up a walk off home run to Aramis Ramirez. As Colin mentioned a few days ago, Heath Bell has been pitching well of late while the Marlins setup men have been struggling, so consider this just a blip on the radar with Bell maintaining a firm grasp on closing duties in Miami.

• The Brewers bullpen meanwhile had a bit of a meltdown today, giving up nine runs in total. Jon Axford was able to pitch a scoreless inning but his setup man, Francisco Rodriguez, struggled blowing the save for the Brewers. The Mets have reportedly been interested in K-Rod, but the days of Rodriguez being a top notch reliever appear to be over. K-Rod hasn’t been particularly awful this season (3.92 xFIP) but he clearly isn’t the same pitcher he used to be, losing a lot of his swing and miss stuff with a 8.7% SwStr%, down from his career 12.7%. K-Rod’s name may float around in some trade rumors, but it’s unlikely that he’ll be the best reliever in any bullpen he goes to and should only be relied on getting holds in 2012, not necessarily saves.

• Drew Storen is set to begin rehab on Thursday and is scheduled to be back on the Nationals for the start of the second half of the season. Nationals manager Davey Johnson has indicated that Storen will start the year as a setup man and Clippard has certainly pitched well enough to deserve to hold onto the job. So long as Clippard keeps pitching the way he has been, it will be hard to remove him from the role, although with Storen waiting in the wings he may not have the longest leash.

For those of you who play daily fantasy games like FanGraphs: The Game, or just like to stream players, here is a matchup you may be able to exploit.

A Pitcher for Tomorrow: David Robertson (NYY) at TB

The Rays have the big edge on the better starting David tomorrow with David Price facing David Phelps, but Yankees reliever David Robertson is fully rested and has a chance to show off his elite strikeout stuff (14.77 K/9) against the Rays.

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]

• Glen Perkins didn’t have the prettiest of saves tonight as he gave up two hits, but he still pitched a scoreless inning for his third save of the season. Perkins’ fellow bullpen mate, Jared Burton, has two saves on the year and has been solid himself (3.58 xFIP) this season but I see Perkins picking up the majority of save chances for the Twins. Jared Burton is still worth owning for owners in need for saves though, since he’ll give you a solid ERA and Whip due to his low walk rate (1.91 BB/9) and solid strikeout rate (8.45 K/9).

• The Fernando Rodney Experience™ continues to bear fruit for the Rays with Rodney pitching a perfect ninth inning with a strikeout tonight against the New York Yankees, recording his 23rd save this year.  We now know Rodney will keep the job even when Kyle Farnsworth returns from the DL, and its hard to fault the Rays for making that decision. Rodney’s improved control (1.26 BB/9 this year; career 4.6 BB/9) has enabled him to be on the most consistent and dominant relief pitchers in 2012. Even though Rodney’s been a little fortunate with balls hit in play (.223 BABIP)  and fly balls turning into home runs ( 3.8% HR/FB%), his 2.64 xFIP is more than respectable and Rodney should continue to get save opportunities for the Rays all season.

• After pitching in three consecutive games, Carlos Marmol rested tonight and James Russell came on to complete his second save of the season. James Russell and fellow setup man Shawn Camp can expect to receive some action in the eighth inning for the Cubs, but it is Marmol who will be receiving the ninth inning duty consistently from now on. Marmol did have a disastrous April and May but he’s turned his season around a bit since returning from the DL in late May, recording a respectable 3.73 xFIP in June, compared to his 5.47 xFIP on the year. A 3.73 xFIP isn’t anything to write home about, and in Marmol’s relative successes he still struggles with control (6.10 BB/9 in June) but saves are saves and Marmol will continue to get them for the Cubs.

For those of you who play daily fantasy games like FanGraphs: The Game, or just like to stream players, here is a matchup you may be able to exploit.

A  Pitcher for Tomorrow: Sergio Romo (SF) at WAS

Tim Lincecum is coming off of his best performance of the season and his disappointing season is largely a victim of poor luck (3.70 xFIP/5.60 ERA), so I expect tomorrow’s matchup with the Giants and Nationals (Jordan Zimmermann starting) to be a low scoring affair. Santiago Casilla has struggled lately and while Romo won’t necessarily be closing for the Giants he should have a chance to show off his elite strikeout ability (11.51 K/9/ 17.1% SwStr%) in a close game tomorrow night.

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]

• Since we last left you, Heath Bell racked up back-to-back saves versus the floundering (see, it would be funny if this was a Marlins pun) Philadelphia Phillies. Saturday’s involved a little bit of drama (giving up a one-out double to Carlos Ruiz) but Sunday’s was of the one-two-three variety. Bell has quietly gotten his season back on track since a series of meltdowns early in the season, putting up a 2.71 FIP with 22 strikeouts to only seven walks since May 9th. While Bell has shaken off some early season rust, fill-in candidates Steve Cishek and Edward Mujica have suffered through rough Junes, putting up  5.62 and 4.92 xFIPs respectively. Both relievers have had a K/BB quite close to one recently, but for difference reasons; Cishek is walking way too many batters (7.2 BB/9 in June) and Mujica isn’t striking anyone out (2.5 K/9 over the same time frame). Both pitchers should rebound to less mediocre levels, but anyone still holding either of those guys from Bell’s dark days of April should have cut bait a long time ago.

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• Casey Janssen closed the door on the Angels in impressive fashion, including striking out Mike Trout swinging to end the game, to wrap up his ninth save of 2012. With news popping up in the last couple of days that Sergio Santos has shut down his rehab again with renewed shoulder discomfort, it’s looking more and more like Janssen might just hold the job for the next few months, if not the remainder of the year. The Jays new closer has been sterling this year, only walking 1.5 per nine while sporting a 2.86 xFIP. If that wasn’t enough, those numbers are actually still worse than his June tallies, where he owns a 1.80 xFIP thanks to the fact that he’s fanned 12 while walking none in 10 innings. The one potential drawback to owning Janssen is the sudden incapacitation of the Blue Jays rotation which seems likely to cut into their projected wins and doom them in the hyper-competitive AL East, but seeing as his ownership percentage is only 61% at ESPN and 48% on Yahoo, he’s a sneaky brilliant alternative to forking over big talent for top-tier save artists.

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To say that the closing situation in baseball has been a disaster this season would be a grave understatement.  Of the 30 teams this year, 18 teams have had to make changes and/or adjustments due to injury or an outright lack of success.  Some of the changes have been temporary while others have seen multiple relievers moved in and out of the role causing fantasy owners to spend far too much time playing the waiver wire in search of consistent saves.  But what happens once the dust settles and there’s almost no more turnover?  What happens when you can’t find saves on the waiver wire and you’re in need?  The trade market can be a very unforgiving place to shop. Read the rest of this entry »

Yahoo! currently has Craig Kimbrel as the 21st ranked pitcher in fantasy, and 47th best player overall. So, is it worth it to go after the fireballing reliever who has the lowest ERA in history in the amount of innings he has thrown? My short answer is probably not, but if you desperately need saves and strikeouts while you have depth in other spots, then I can see an argument for trading for him.

Everyone knows what Kimbrel does, but it is difficult to trade the house for someone who is on pace to throw just 33 more innings for the rest of the season. Judging by Yahoo!’s value, Madison Bumgarner or Zack Greinke would be equal trading partners, two players I would not give up for any closer. Keep in mind that Yahoo! ranks Jim Johnson and Aroldis Chapman ahead of Kimbrel, due mostly to the fact that they have thrown more innings and the rate stats are comparable — though Johnson’s strikeouts are nowhere near comparable to the other two. Kenley Jansen is not too far behind them.

In trading for Kimbrel offering a package of two quality players would be the recommended strategy rather than trading a sure-fire stud. For a sole player, someone like Jordan Zimmermann seems like fair value in a straight-away deal, due to his great rate stats but pedestrian strikeout numbers.

The real good situation to be in is to be an owner of Kimbrel. There are teams in every league looking for saves, and if you own Kimbrel, who has been the best closer in the game over the past two years, you are likely in a great position to leverage his skills to acquire the combination of a lesser closer and another very good player. As a current owner of Kimbrel in a keeper league, while I also own Casey Janssen and Rafael Betancourt, this is a strategy I am strongly considering.

It is not selling high, as Kimbrel is simply an astounding pitcher, but it is maximizing value and helping your team in areas where it is currently struggling. While Kimbrel is great, the difference between Kimbrel and Rafael Soriano in fantasy leagues is a few saves, 21 strikeouts, and a bit of WHIP. With the difference being relatively minor and the real value being in the save total — which will likely not be too different over the remainder of the season — a trade of Kimbrel for Soriano and either a starting pitcher or solid bat could provide a team with solid value. Kimbrel is a great pitcher, but closers are often a bit overvalued in fantasy for a number of reasons. Don’t be afraid to trade your better players just because they are playing well or are the best at their position, as the label of “best at their position” may increase their trade value in itself.

• When the Yankees took the field in the top of the ninth inning up six runs, I don’t think Rafael Soriano was expecting to be finishing the game tonight, but finished he did. After Cory Wade gave up four runs, Soriano came on to get the final out, recording his 16th save of the season. Soriano has done a great job closing for the Yankees this year but his ERA (1.63) is lower than you would expect (3.84 xFIP) because he has been very fortunate with fly balls leaving the park. Soriano has yet to give up a home run in 2012, a trend which certainly won’t continue in Yankee Stadium for a pitcher who isn’t particularly great at killing worms (38.1% GB%). Still, Girardi has confidence in Soriano who maintains a firm grasp on the job and should hold onto it even if and when regression hits him. David Robertson has pitched well in his first four games back from the DL, giving up one run in 3.2 innings pitched while striking out six batters and although he may be the better pitcher, Soriano is the one who will continue to get saves for the rest of the year.

• After blowing three saves in his last six outings, Aroldis Chapman looked right on track tonight, striking out three batters while walking one in the ninth inning for his ninth save of the season. Chapman’s peripherals remain jaw dropping with a 15.85 K/9 and a 1.88 xFIP and while baseball fans may drool at the thought of Chapman’s skills in the starting rotation, it looks like he will remain closing games for Cincinnati. Sean Marshall owners speculating on a closing controversy stemming from a few bad outings by Chapman can stop speculating as he’s not likely to gain the job. However, for ratios and strikeouts, you will struggle to find a better reliever than Marshall this year– Marshall has a 2.14 xFIP and a strikeout rate over 11 (11.17 K/9), numbers that may pale in comparison to his teammate Chapman but still rank in the upper echelon of the league.

• Addison Reed gave up two runs in the ninth inning against the Twins tonight but was still able to hold on for his 10th save of the year. Reed has been a little disappointing since taking over closing duties in Chicago with a pedestrian 4.09 xFIP but he still has a 10.00 K/9, and his competition (Matt Thornton and Hector Santiago) isn’t exactly breathing down his neck, so Reed’s grasp on the job remains fairly firm.

• Jose Valverde has declared himself OK after his wrist sprain and entered tonight’s game in the bottom of the eighth inning down two runs pitching a perfect inning against the Rangers. While Valverde looks to be healed, it will be interesting to see if Jim Leyland goes to Valverde in another low leverage situation before putting him back in for the ninth inning. For now, I would be sure to hold onto Joaquin Benoit until Valverde is converting saves consistently again.

For those of you who play daily fantasy games like FanGraphs: The Game, or just like to stream players, here is a matchup you may be able to exploit.

A Pitcher for Tomorrow: Jason Grilli (PIT) vs. PHI

The Pirates have their ace on the hill tomorrow in Jason McDonald and while the Phillies may be starting the 34 year old journeyman Raul Valdes, a pitching machine would fair pretty well against the Pirates lineup which is a long way to say that this game should be another close matchup with Jason Grilli getting a chance to pitch tomorrow night. Grilli has been sensational this year with a 2.69 xFIP and a fantastic 14.13 K/9 that is supported by his top notch SwStr% (15.2%) which ranks sixth in the majors among all qualified relievers.

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]

• As Colin mentioned in the Bullpen Report last night, the “late scuttlebutt” is true and Matt Capps has been placed on the DL with shoulder inflammation.  It is unknown how long Matt Capps will be out, but what we do know is that shoulder injuries can get pretty tricky, so we can’t assume Capps will be back in action as soon as he’s eligible to return from the DL. We also know that Matt Capps hasn’t been that impressive this year (4.21 xFIP) and has actually been far worse than the new co-closers in Minnesota, Glen Perkins (2.98 xFIP) and Jared Burton (3.26 xFIP). Glen Perkins is the better pitcher and has more closing experience both this year and at the end of last year, but it’s been Jared Burton who has received and converted the last two save opportunities, including tonight’s game against the White Sox. Perkins may be the better pitcher but the lefty closer is a rare breed as managers often side with the right-handed part of a closing platoon like we have seen Mike Scioscia do with Ernesto Frieri and Scott Downs.

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