Archive for Closers

Bullpen Report: Trade Targets Part Three

With the All-Star Break upon us, and the trade deadline getting closer, the Bullpen Report will look a little different over the next few days. Stay along for the ride as we dive into the world of trade rumors and how that might affect some of the bullpens in baseball.

• The Seattle Mariners have been one of the teams constantly coming up in discussions that center around relief pitchers changing teams sometime this month. It’s no surprise, either — at 36-51, they own the worst record in the American League and merely plugging a small leaky hole or two via free agency isn’t going to suddenly make them watertight again. Most of the talk has centered around moving Brandon League, a guy making $5 million in 2012 before hitting free agency for the first time this offseason. While League (career 3.65 xFIP, 4.64 in 2012) and his expiring contract is the obvious choice, could (or should) the Mariners entertain the idea of trading Tom Wilhelmsen as well?

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Juan Oviedo & Chris Tillman: Deep League WW

Welcome back Self! If you didn’t realize it (admit that you noticed immediately that my highly informative and entertaining posts were suddenly missing from your life), I have been away on vacation for the last 2 weeks. And yes, it was a great time, thanks for asking. Anyway, due to the wonders of the iPhone, I was actually able to keep up with all the baseball happenings for the first time on a vacation. Joining the 21st century is a nice thing. As a result, I found two free agent gems for you deep leaguers!

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Bullpen Report: Trade Targets Part One

With the All-Star Break upon us and the trade deadline getting closer, the Bullpen Report will look a little different over the next few days but stay along for the ride we dive into the world of trade rumors and how that might affect some of the bullpens in baseball.

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Midseason Waiver Wire All-Stars

With the All-Star break upon us, we finally don’t have to worry about our fantasy teams for a few days. It’s always nice to have that little break, especially when you run multiple teams. Rather than the usual daily waiver wire shtick, let’s take a look at four players who have gone from undrafted and afterthoughts to key contributors in all formats.

Carlos Ruiz | C | Phillies | Preseason ADP: 290 | Owned: 89% Yahoo! and 100% ESPN

Chooch has been, my far, the best hitting catcher in baseball this season. He came into the year with a .265/.357/.393 career batting line which is solid but not exactly worth a fantasy roster spot. The 33-year-old Ruiz carries a .350/.412/.584 (!) line into the break this summer, having already hit a career-best 13 homers with 21 doubles that are just eight shy of his career-high. He’s moved into a more premium lineup spot — fourth or fifth depending on whether or not Ryan Howard plays — and the result has been 46 RBI that are the second most among qualified catchers and eight short of his career-high. His 523 ottoneu points lead all catchers by a significant margin.

Ruiz’s production will likely step back for a number of reasons in the second half, mostly because catchers tend to wear down in August in September. A .362 BABIP and 18.3% HR/FB don’t exactly scream sustainable either. That said, Chooch’s first half production is already in the bank and anyone who grabbed him off waivers in April is surely thrilled.

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Bullpen Report: July 8, 2012

• Just as Heath Bell looked like he was climbing back into fantasy owners’ good graces, he crumbled faster than the Mrs. Fields cookie I’m gnawing on while sitting on the floor writing this at BWI (surprisingly busy for a Sunday night). While he’s been frustrating for fantasy owners this year, his recent uptick in velocity hasn’t reversed over the past week and his June peripherals (6.0 K/BB, 2.54 xFIP) still were the best of his 2012 season (and it wasn’t even really close). As has been said in numerous Bullpen Reports, he will have a long leash at the back end of the Miami bullpen thanks to his contract, so expect to see him still patrolling the ninth if the immediate aftermath of the all-star break. An interesting wild card that might stir up some trouble for Bell if he continues to regress back to early season form — Juan Oviedo (formerly Leo Nunez) is eligible to return from his suspension on July 23rd and manager Ozzie Guillen did not rule out the former closer (career 2.6 K/BB, 4.25 xFIP) seeing a few save chances once he returns. I wouldn’t rush to grab Oviedo in shallow leagues given his history of mediocrity outside of 2010, but Bell owners in deeper or NL-only ones might think about handcuffing him during the fantasy lull over the next few days just to cover all their bases (something the Cardinals did against Bell today — hey-o!).

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Bullpen Report: July 6, 2012

Drew Storen looked great in his first rehab outing today needing just eight pitches to complete his perfect inning. Tyler Clippard is still expected to hold onto the ninth inning duties for the Nationals, but Storen is on track to return to the Nationals after the break and is worth keeping an eye on if Clippard were to struggle.

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Bullpen Report: July 3, 2012

Apologies for a shorter Bullpen Report tonight but wishing all of you a wonderful holiday!

Heath Bell entered the 10th inning today for a save against the Brewers but wasn’t able to close the door, giving up a walk off home run to Aramis Ramirez. As Colin mentioned a few days ago, Heath Bell has been pitching well of late while the Marlins setup men have been struggling, so consider this just a blip on the radar with Bell maintaining a firm grasp on closing duties in Miami.

• The Brewers bullpen meanwhile had a bit of a meltdown today, giving up nine runs in total. Jon Axford was able to pitch a scoreless inning but his setup man, Francisco Rodriguez, struggled blowing the save for the Brewers. The Mets have reportedly been interested in K-Rod, but the days of Rodriguez being a top notch reliever appear to be over. K-Rod hasn’t been particularly awful this season (3.92 xFIP) but he clearly isn’t the same pitcher he used to be, losing a lot of his swing and miss stuff with a 8.7% SwStr%, down from his career 12.7%. K-Rod’s name may float around in some trade rumors, but it’s unlikely that he’ll be the best reliever in any bullpen he goes to and should only be relied on getting holds in 2012, not necessarily saves.

Drew Storen is set to begin rehab on Thursday and is scheduled to be back on the Nationals for the start of the second half of the season. Nationals manager Davey Johnson has indicated that Storen will start the year as a setup man and Clippard has certainly pitched well enough to deserve to hold onto the job. So long as Clippard keeps pitching the way he has been, it will be hard to remove him from the role, although with Storen waiting in the wings he may not have the longest leash.

For those of you who play daily fantasy games like FanGraphs: The Game, or just like to stream players, here is a matchup you may be able to exploit.

A Pitcher for Tomorrow: David Robertson (NYY) at TB

The Rays have the big edge on the better starting David tomorrow with David Price facing David Phelps, but Yankees reliever David Robertson is fully rested and has a chance to show off his elite strikeout stuff (14.77 K/9) against the Rays.

Closer Grid:

Closer First Second Injured
Arizona J.J. Putz David Hernandez Bryan Shaw
Atlanta Craig Kimbrel Jonny Venters Eric O’Flaherty
Baltimore Jim Johnson Pedro Strop Darren O’Day
Boston Alfredo Aceves Andrew Miller Mark Melancon Andrew Bailey
Chicago (NL) Carlos Marmol James Russell Shawn Camp
Chicago (AL) Addison Reed Matt Thornton Hector Santiago
Cincy Aroldis Chapman Sean Marshall Jose Arredondo
Cleveland Chris Perez Vinnie Pestano Tony Sipp
Colorado Rafael Betancourt Matt Belisle Matt Reynolds
Detroit Jose Valverde Joaquin Benoit Octavio Dotel
Houston Brett Myers Brandon Lyon Wilton Lopez
KC Jonathan Broxton Greg Holland Aaron Crow
LAA Ernesto Frieri Scott Downs Jordan Walden
LAD Kenley Jansen Josh Lindblom Shawn Tolleson
Miami Heath Bell Steve Cishek Edward Mujica
Milwaukee John Axford Francisco Rodriguez Jose Veras
Minnesota Glen Perkins Jared Burton Alex Burnett Matt Capps
NY (NL) Bobby Parnell Jon Rauch Ramon Ramirez Frank Francisco
NY (AL) Rafael Soriano David Robertson Boone Logan
Oakland Ryan Cook Brian Fuentes Grant Balfour
Philly Jonathan Papelbon Antonio Bastardo Jake Diekman
Pittsburgh Joel Hanrahan Jason Grilli Juan Cruz
St. Louis Jason Motte Mitchell Boggs Eduardo Sanchez
SD Huston Street Dale Thayer Luke Gregerson
SF Santiago Casilla Sergio Romo Javier Lopez
Seattle Tom Wilhelmsen Brandon League Charlie Furbush
Tampa Bay Fernando Rodney Joel Peralta J.P. Howell Kyle Farnsworth
Texas Joe Nathan Mike Adams Robbie Ross
Toronto Casey Janssen Jason Frasor Darren Oliver Sergio Santos
Wash. Tyler Clippard Sean Burnett Henry Rodriguez Drew Storen

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]


Bullpen Report: July 2, 2012

Glen Perkins didn’t have the prettiest of saves tonight as he gave up two hits, but he still pitched a scoreless inning for his third save of the season. Perkins’ fellow bullpen mate, Jared Burton, has two saves on the year and has been solid himself (3.58 xFIP) this season but I see Perkins picking up the majority of save chances for the Twins. Jared Burton is still worth owning for owners in need for saves though, since he’ll give you a solid ERA and Whip due to his low walk rate (1.91 BB/9) and solid strikeout rate (8.45 K/9).

• The Fernando Rodney Experience™ continues to bear fruit for the Rays with Rodney pitching a perfect ninth inning with a strikeout tonight against the New York Yankees, recording his 23rd save this year.  We now know Rodney will keep the job even when Kyle Farnsworth returns from the DL, and its hard to fault the Rays for making that decision. Rodney’s improved control (1.26 BB/9 this year; career 4.6 BB/9) has enabled him to be on the most consistent and dominant relief pitchers in 2012. Even though Rodney’s been a little fortunate with balls hit in play (.223 BABIP)  and fly balls turning into home runs ( 3.8% HR/FB%), his 2.64 xFIP is more than respectable and Rodney should continue to get save opportunities for the Rays all season.

• After pitching in three consecutive games, Carlos Marmol rested tonight and James Russell came on to complete his second save of the season. James Russell and fellow setup man Shawn Camp can expect to receive some action in the eighth inning for the Cubs, but it is Marmol who will be receiving the ninth inning duty consistently from now on. Marmol did have a disastrous April and May but he’s turned his season around a bit since returning from the DL in late May, recording a respectable 3.73 xFIP in June, compared to his 5.47 xFIP on the year. A 3.73 xFIP isn’t anything to write home about, and in Marmol’s relative successes he still struggles with control (6.10 BB/9 in June) but saves are saves and Marmol will continue to get them for the Cubs.

For those of you who play daily fantasy games like FanGraphs: The Game, or just like to stream players, here is a matchup you may be able to exploit.

A  Pitcher for Tomorrow: Sergio Romo (SF) at WAS

Tim Lincecum is coming off of his best performance of the season and his disappointing season is largely a victim of poor luck (3.70 xFIP/5.60 ERA), so I expect tomorrow’s matchup with the Giants and Nationals (Jordan Zimmermann starting) to be a low scoring affair. Santiago Casilla has struggled lately and while Romo won’t necessarily be closing for the Giants he should have a chance to show off his elite strikeout ability (11.51 K/9/ 17.1% SwStr%) in a close game tomorrow night.

Closer Grid:

Closer First Second Injured
Arizona J.J. Putz David Hernandez Bryan Shaw
Atlanta Craig Kimbrel Jonny Venters Eric O’Flaherty
Baltimore Jim Johnson Pedro Strop Darren O’Day
Boston Alfredo Aceves Andrew Miller Mark Melancon Andrew Bailey
Chicago (NL) Carlos Marmol James Russell Shawn Camp
Chicago (AL) Addison Reed Matt Thornton Hector Santiago
Cincy Aroldis Chapman Sean Marshall Jose Arredondo
Cleveland Chris Perez Vinnie Pestano Tony Sipp
Colorado Rafael Betancourt Matt Belisle Matt Reynolds
Detroit Jose Valverde Joaquin Benoit Octavio Dotel
Houston Brett Myers Brandon Lyon Wilton Lopez
KC Jonathan Broxton Greg Holland Aaron Crow
LAA Ernesto Frieri Scott Downs Jordan Walden
LAD Kenley Jansen Josh Lindblom Shawn Tolleson
Miami Heath Bell Steve Cishek Edward Mujica
Milwaukee John Axford Francisco Rodriguez Jose Veras
Minnesota Glen Perkins Jared Burton Alex Burnett Matt Capps
NY (NL) Bobby Parnell Jon Rauch Ramon Ramirez Frank Francisco
NY (AL) Rafael Soriano David Robertson Boone Logan
Oakland Ryan Cook Brian Fuentes Grant Balfour
Philly Jonathan Papelbon Antonio Bastardo Jake Diekman
Pittsburgh Joel Hanrahan Jason Grilli Juan Cruz
St. Louis Jason Motte Mitchell Boggs Eduardo Sanchez
SD Huston Street Dale Thayer Luke Gregerson
SF Santiago Casilla Sergio Romo Javier Lopez
Seattle Tom Wilhelmsen Brandon League Charlie Furbush
Tampa Bay Fernando Rodney Joel Peralta J.P. Howell Kyle Farnsworth
Texas Joe Nathan Mike Adams Robbie Ross
Toronto Casey Janssen Jason Frasor Darren Oliver Sergio Santos
Wash. Tyler Clippard Sean Burnett Henry Rodriguez Drew Storen

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]


Bullpen Report: July 1, 2012

• Since we last left you, Heath Bell racked up back-to-back saves versus the floundering (see, it would be funny if this was a Marlins pun) Philadelphia Phillies. Saturday’s involved a little bit of drama (giving up a one-out double to Carlos Ruiz) but Sunday’s was of the one-two-three variety. Bell has quietly gotten his season back on track since a series of meltdowns early in the season, putting up a 2.71 FIP with 22 strikeouts to only seven walks since May 9th. While Bell has shaken off some early season rust, fill-in candidates Steve Cishek and Edward Mujica have suffered through rough Junes, putting up  5.62 and 4.92 xFIPs respectively. Both relievers have had a K/BB quite close to one recently, but for difference reasons; Cishek is walking way too many batters (7.2 BB/9 in June) and Mujica isn’t striking anyone out (2.5 K/9 over the same time frame). Both pitchers should rebound to less mediocre levels, but anyone still holding either of those guys from Bell’s dark days of April should have cut bait a long time ago.

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Bullpen Report: June 29, 2012

• Casey Janssen closed the door on the Angels in impressive fashion, including striking out Mike Trout swinging to end the game, to wrap up his ninth save of 2012. With news popping up in the last couple of days that Sergio Santos has shut down his rehab again with renewed shoulder discomfort, it’s looking more and more like Janssen might just hold the job for the next few months, if not the remainder of the year. The Jays new closer has been sterling this year, only walking 1.5 per nine while sporting a 2.86 xFIP. If that wasn’t enough, those numbers are actually still worse than his June tallies, where he owns a 1.80 xFIP thanks to the fact that he’s fanned 12 while walking none in 10 innings. The one potential drawback to owning Janssen is the sudden incapacitation of the Blue Jays rotation which seems likely to cut into their projected wins and doom them in the hyper-competitive AL East, but seeing as his ownership percentage is only 61% at ESPN and 48% on Yahoo, he’s a sneaky brilliant alternative to forking over big talent for top-tier save artists.

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