About 24 hours ago, plus or minus zero minutes, I posted on the topic of elite relievers and when such players should be purchased in a draft. I recommend skimming that first as some of the points are pertinent to this article.

That piece was designed to offer some general tools and thoughts for those in relatively standard leagues. However, FanGraphs offers a custom fantasy game called Ottoneu – perhaps you have heard of it. Ottoneu offers four scoring systems, two of which are scored by points. This article is about the value of elite relievers in those points formats.

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One relief pitcher trait I like to have on hand during draft season is how much of a split has a pitcher displayed over his career against right- and left-handed hitters. Most teams don’t want their closer to have a large split because with all hands on deck in the ninth, the opposing manager will use up all his available platoon options. The reason a pitcher may or may not have a split may be many, but truthfully I don’t have time to evaluate each relief pitcher in detail (and still stay married) so I use this nice little cheat sheet.

I examined which pitchers have historically small or large handedness splits and how much to take them into account when valuing the relief pitcher for a closer’s role.

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Addison Reed is fascinating, I think. He’s seen as a star closer because he came up as a rookie in 2012 and saved 29 games, then 40 more in 2013, despite playing for a Chicago team that seemed like it had a lead to hang onto about once a week. Those 69 saves are good for the ninth-most in history through a player’s age-24 season, which is both impressive and terrifying — while Craig Kimbrel is on that list, so are flameouts like Gregg Olson and Chad Cordero.

Since fantasy baseball isn’t real baseball, it’s often a simple equation of {if (saves=yes) then (pitcher=draft-him)}. Reed gets saves, so you draft him, and that’s why he’s #12 on our closer rankings. But there’s a reason he’s not in the top 10, and it’s certainly not because he has a problem missing bats, not when he’s whiffed 138 in 133.2 major league innings. It’s because for all the things Reed does very well, he hasn’t always done a particularly great job of simply preventing runs from scoring. Read the rest of this entry »

As you might have noticed, we are a few days into our offseason analysis of relievers. We’ve mostly discussed the best of the best thus far, and we’ve been sure to warn everybody that waiver wire hawks may want to allocate the $20 it takes to win a Craig Kimbrel to another position. If you’re the kind of guy who finds a Koji Uehara or Mark Melancon for free year after year, why should you pay $20 for a closer? You’ll eventually get your saves – even if you’re at the bottom of the pile in April – and the extra $20 could go into hiring 20 more home runs and RBI in the outfield or a catcher that contributes in more than one category.

Like every other position, closers also get hurt. Unlike most other positions, the guy who steps in as the next closer is sometimes as good or better than the first guy. Again, see Uehara and Melancon. So that’s the common line of thinking on elite relievers, that an active owner can find underpriced saves without taking on the injury risk of a $20 relief asset. However, there are definitely circumstances where it makes all the sense in the world to pay for 40 saves, massive strikeout totals, and drool worthy ratios.

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After taking over the closer role for an ineffective Trevor Hoffman in late May of 2010, John Axford was lights out through the 2011 season. Unfortunately for the Brew Crew, the magic couldn’t last and a severe care of gopheritis reared its ugly head the following year. Despite posting similar skills, Axford’s ERA ballooned to 4.67 as a result. But, he limped through the season and still managed to save 35 games.

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It’s probably safe to say that Kenley Jansen has finally freed himself from the shackles of setup relief duty. Since entering the league in 2010, Jansen has been comparable to the historically excellent Craig Kimbrel with one exception, the Dodgers keep blocking him at closer. In 2013, it was the recently re-signed Brandon League who stood between Jansen and fantasy reliever gold. Of course, League asploded and hemorrhaged runs all over the field, so Jansen was called back into action. He was worth over $14 according to Zach Sanders, a value that was held down by just 28 saves.

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Tigers closer Joe Nathan once again finds himself in a desirable fantasy situation. By moving from Texas to Detroit, Nathan gets to close for another contending club. Nathan is also coming off one of the finest seasons of his career. Over 64.2 innings, Nathan posted a 1.39 ERA with 43 saves. In most cases, fantasy owners would be comfortable relying on that closer the following year. In Nathan’s case, his age is starting to get worrisome. Nathan will be 39 when the season begins, and he’ll need to defy Father Time if he wants to continue posting excellent numbers.

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The Rays are no stranger to handing over the closing reigns to a pitcher without that elusive “established closer” tag. Most recently, they essentially turned the ninth inning over to guys they acquired off the scrap heap or solid, but unspectacular, middle relievers. The team is somewhat doing it again as they acquired former established closer Heath Bell, who you figure will get a shot to be the stopper.

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Aroldis Chapman is best known for throwing ridiculously hard. Last season, he averaged 99 mph with his fastball according to BrooksBaseball.net, and he frequently reaches over 100 mph. While 2013 was a lesson in regression for Chapman and his fantasy owners, he still struck out over 40 percent of batters faced, saved 38 games, and posted a 2.54 ERA. Even if that isn’t as good as his superlative 2012, nobody is going to complain about $13 of value from a reliever.

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Before the 2013 season, one of my 10 Bold Fantasy Predictions was that Sergio Santos would finish the season with more saves than Casey Janssen in the Toronto Blue Jays bullpen.

The final tally was razor-close, a 34-1 advantage for Janssen, with the Californian posting his third straight season with an ERA of 2.56 or lower. It was a very unsuccessful prediction.

But heading into 2014, I find myself wanting to double down on it and predict the former Blue Jays shortstop prospect to out-save the UCLA alum, even though the latter ranked 14th in relief pitcher value this season while the former didn’t crack the top-150. Am I just being really stubborn?
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