• While I was speculating that Bobby Parnell’s neck was the cause of his issues and decreased velocity, it was actually his arm (shocker) as he has a partially torn ligament in his right elbow. Parnell is avoiding surgery for now, resting for a few weeks before being reevaluated but this doesn’t look good. I would still stash Parnell on the DL if you have him, but I wouldn’t bet on Parnell making a full recovery, closing game for the Mets this season anytime soon. As he did in Detoit last year, Papa Grande is back and closing games for the Mets. Don’t let Jose Valverde confuse you, he’s not a good pitcher but he’s healthy and in line for saves, go grab him now if you haven’t already. Behind Valverde should be Jeurys Familia, who wasn’t effective last night, Gonzalez Germen and even Kyle Farnsworth. For now it’s Valverde without an obvious choice as second in line. However, if Papa Grande fails and this goes to a committee type approach, it might not even be worth the trouble.

• Speaking of closer-by-committees (and horrible segues) that’s what the Astros are working with, narrowing their choices down to three – Chad Qualls, Matt Albers and Josh Fields. In tonight’s game against the Yankees, Bo Porter went with Qualls in the eighth with a six run lead. Qualls ended up giving up an inherited run as well as one of his own and Matt Albers finished the game in the ninth in a non save situation. It’s hard to glean anything of value from this one game besides the fact that all three should factor into saves in Houston. As of now, I’m keeping Qualls first as he’s probably the best of the bunch but this isn’t a particularly satisfying situation for baseball viewers or fantasy owners alike.

• Brian Wilson will be placed on the DL with elbow problems and nerve irritation according to Ken Gurnick. In his place, I suspect Chris Perez will be the primary set up man but Paco Rodriguez and J.P. Howell, who pitched the eighth inning tonight, will also be in the mix. Chris Perez had a rough go in Cleveland last year but if you squint hard enough there was a 3.83 xFIP and 3.40 SIERA last year. Perez isn’t flashy enough to own for ratios or strikeouts, but anyone who is one pitch away from closing deserves to be on watch.

• Holds Alert: He didn’t receive a hold today as the Yankees were behind all game, but Dellin Betances looked mighty impressive for the Yankees in his inning of work, striking out two batters in a perfect inning. Betances’ velocity was in the high 90s, reaching a peak of 99.3 mph. He might be lower on the totem poll now in New York but with only Shawn Kelley and Matt Thornton ahead of him, it won’t take much for Betances to be a main setup option, receiving higher leverage holds on the reg.  David Carpenter got a hold in the eighth inning tonight for the Braves, although he gave up a run. I suspect Jordan Walden is still next in line for the Braves, but it’s worth noting as each situation plays itself out early on this season.

• Quick Hits: Steve Cishek pitched a perfect inning for his first save of the year. Kenley Jansen was far from perfect allowing three guys to reach base, but he didn’t allow a run en route to his first save. Craig Kimbrel pulled a Kimbrel, striking out the side for the save. Sergio Santos tried his best to blow the game but barely held on for his first save of the year as Casey Janssen remains on the DL. Santos is undoubtedly the closer with Janssen out (although Brett Cecil was warming up tonight) but if he continues to struggle look for Steve Delabar to get a look. And for those disgruntled Janssen owners, Santos’ struggles means Janssen would be more likely to reclaim the job upon his return.

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]

I don’t necessarily agree with all of the conclusions that Mike Podhorzer came to about the closers in Milwaukee and Chicago earlier today, but his writeup makes sense, and it is still notable what’s happening in those cities. The fireballing favorite was passed over for a couple of veterans. That’s too bad because the only thing I’ve seen that says much about closer change is fastball velocity and strikeout rate. Neither Matt Lindstrom nor Francisco Rodriguez own real leads over Nate Jones and Jim Henderson in those categories. And yet, it’s the veterans with more service time that are closing right now.

Maybe that’s not by accident. Matt Murphy wrote a great piece about how it’s possible that teams are using veteran closers on short term contracts in order to keep their arbitration-eligible young relievers cheap. No saves means no bucks in arbitration. Whether or not teams are actually doing so on purpose, there are ready examples in Oakland, Cleveland, and Tampa Bay (and now Chicago and Milwaukee) where the arbitration kid lost out to the free agent contract vet. Should we add age to the equation when we are thinking about closer changes?

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Ahhh, Opening Day! It was a lovely lunch break at work yesterday as I flipped on the Mets game and celebrated the first full day of baseball. While it was of little surprise that the Mets lost, there was no shortage of drama around the league. More specifically, it took all of half a day to remind fantasy owners how silly it is to invest too heavily in closers on draft day.

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It’s not even April yet and the closer carousel is in full swing. Here. We. Go.

• Before the game started, White Sox manager Robin Ventura named Matt Lindstrom the team’s closer over Nate Jones and Daniel Webb. I apologize in leading anyone to draft Nate Jones but Ventura hadn’t named a closer and Jones was the most compelling option on the team. He likely still is the best option, but the ninth inning belongs to Lindstrom now and he succeeded today, converting his first save of the year against the Twins. Lindstrom isn’t a particularly exciting reliever with high K-rates but he throws hard, kills worms and is generally pretty good. He’s also closing now and should be owned by all teams. I can’t imagine Nate Jones will be setting up games all season but whether he’s closing games in August or May I can’t really tell you, and it might largely rely on the bullpen health and effectiveness of other teams. Regardless, Nate Jones profiles to give teams value outside of receiving save opportunities. If you need saves and missed out on Lindstrom on the waiver wire, a sneaky play might be acquiring Jones via trade or waivers as he will likely finish the year with a handful of opportunities.

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You know, I can advocate for different types of leagues. I can talk about the pros and cons of head-to-head, and how redraft leagues are great for the refresh, and about deep leagues and shallow leagues. It’s my job!

But when it comes to playing, to the leagues I actually join, the rubber hits the road. In other words, I vote with my wallet when I join these leagues, because I’m spending actual time and energy in this way. So I thought I’d look through my leagues and see what kinds of leagues I like. And while I’m there, I might as well count up my pitchers so you can see what sorts of arms I’m investing in. My arms and my leagues, and now you know what I *really* like.

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Spring training is nearing its end (thankfully) and as managers finalize the end of their roster, the last bullpen spots are being decided. Here are a few items from today:

• We learned yesterday that Joakim Soria would be closing games in Texas and now we found out that Neftali Feliz was optioned to Triple-A. From GM Jon Daniels:  “He’s healthy and his work ethic has been solid, but he needs some work and the best place to get him that is in Round Rock right now. I expect he’ll be back as soon as he’s ready to help us.” When that will be I’m not entirely sure, and I don’t know if the Rangers are either. If Feliz is healthy as Daniels says and only throwing 91-93 MPH then he likely won’t be the force that he was the first time he was a closer in Texas. Feliz certainly doesn’t have to touch 100 MPH on his fastball to be effective, but this current version of Feliz isn’t the same pitcher we’re used to seeing. I don’t doubt that Feliz will be back in Texas but I also think that he’ll remain a set up option at best, with Soria holding closing duties for the duration of the season.

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Spring is finally here and Spring Training is almost gone. The Dodgers and Diamondbacks gave us a little taste (or a tease) but luckily by this time next week the games will count, just like the All-Star Game. There will likely be a few more shakeups to the bullpens as rosters are finalized, which will naturally affect the table below, but the Bullpen Report is back on the grind with daily updates for all your save vulturing needs.

• Neftali Feliz just isn’t right and Joakim Soria will begin the season as the closer. I don’t expect the Mexicutioner  Soria to return to his KC level of performance but he should be more than adequate and the competition behind him is basically relievers who have returned to the pen after failed starting campaigns. I assume Feliz will show his face again in Texas but it won’t be in the ninth inning, while Tanner Scheppers joins the rotation and Alexi Ogando moves back into the pen. What I said in the beginning of March still applies now to Soria, except he now has the job: “He wasn’t spectacular [in 2013] as his BB/9 ballooned to a career high 5.32 but he still had a respectable 3.80/3.68/3.56 ERA/FIP/xFIP and more importantly showed that he was healthy. If Soria could cut back his walks to his career norms he will be an intriguing option and arguably the best one for Texas.” With the competition behind him pretty meager and with Feliz not guaranteed to even start the season in Texas, Soria’s job should be secure and there is a chance he could provide really good value for your fantasy team. Read the rest of this entry »

I have to be honest: talking about the fantasy baseball impact of the Salvador Perez line drive that hit Aroldis Chapman in the face, requiring surgery to insert a metal plate above his left eyebrow, seems like nothing less than the least important thing in the world. As if we haven’t seen this enough in recent years, from J.A. Happ to Alex Cobb to Brandon McCarthy, the added sight of Chapman’s father sprinting to the mound and the game simply being called off added an extra element of terror.

Fortunately, however, Chapman is being referred to as “a very lucky guy,” talking and joking in the hospital, and is expected to be okay, or as okay as one can be after such an experience. So since the march towards the season continues, and the Reds will need to do without their elite closer for most of the next two months, we may as well talk about what they’re going to do about it. Chapman is expected to be out for 6-8 weeks, and then with some expected rehab time after that, we’re probably looking at a return near late May or early June. But even then, being physically healthy isn’t the entire story; Chapman will need to be mentally ready to get back in the path of liners too. Maybe that happens right away, but maybe it doesn’t.

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Yesterday, I went beyond the obligatory 10 bold predictions and shared my bold hitter league leaders in each of the five standard fantasy categories. So today, I take on the pitchers. Although still difficult to hit on any, the pitchers are a bit easier to get right than the hitters for two reasons. One, there are two ratio categories, rather than one, so playing time expectations are less important. And two, there’s a larger luck component involved in pitching which makes the elite guys less of a lock to lead the league in any specific category.

In 2012, I hit on one of my 10 picks. Last year, I was demoted back to the minors after putting up an 0-fer. Let’s hope that lit a fire under my butt and results in a breakout predictions year.

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At this point so many words have been written about not paying for saves that it’s almost pointless to regurgitate all of that information here.  There is certainly some value to zig when your league is zagging and passing up on drafting closers but for the most part we all want to target those saves sleepers or if all else fails, those dirty, dirty saves.

Our RotoGraphs Reliever Rankings are up and running and that is certainly a fine place to check to target your closers or future closers in drafts but I will dive into some more detail on a few players who come August should be named the team’s closer, have a few saves under his belt or worst case, help your team in the ratio department. Without further ado…

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