• Rough break for Adam Ottavino owners as he hits the DL with inflammation in his right triceps. Ottavino’s velocity had a sudden drop in his last two outings, and now we know why. Walt Weiss said “If we have the lead in the ninth tonight, it’ll be Axford,” so I would say he is the guy to own right now in Colorado. Rafael Betancourt will certainly be in the mix, but provided Axford successfully closes his next opportunity, it would be hard seeing Weiss look to Betancourt instead. Ottavino won’t necessarily be out for long but Verlander has been dealing with a similar issue since the start of the season. We’ll be sure to keep you posted as to Ottavino’s return.

• Steve Cishek was unable to hold the one run lead for the Marlins, blowing the save against the Mets on a three-run homer by Daniel Murphy. Cishek’s defense didn’t do him any favors after Marcell Ozuna allowed Juan Larages to get to second base on a misplay in the first at bat of the inning. Still, it was a poor performance for Cishek who saw his ERA balloon to 11.37 on the year. Cishek won’t maintain a paltry 23.3% LOB% all season long, but he’ll have to start getting shutdown innings to prevent A.J. Ramos and Mike Dunn from breathing down his neck.

• Miguel Castro gave up hits and runs for the fourth time in his last five appearances. Tonight he allowed three hits and a run to the Red Sox for his second loss of the year. Roberto Osuna blew the lead in the eighth inning and Brett Cecil has struggled mightily this year, so there aren’t necessarily great options behind him as a replacement. However, Castro is also a 20 year old rookie struggling lately with major league hitters. His raw stuff is immense and the there have been no talk out of Toronto aboutof Castro being removed from the closer’s chair at the moment, but Castro will have to turn this around if he wants to stay in Toronto, not to mention the ninth inning.

• Miguel Castro’s loss netted Koji Uehara the win tonight. Uehara has been a little more brittle and a little more hittable this year but he was effective pitching a perfect ninth with two strikeouts. Uehara’s velocity dipped a bit earlier this year but he was back at 87-88 mph against the Blue Jays, which is more in line with his recent years. Junichi Tazawa is ownable in all leagues, for ratio help alone, but his chances at saves are looking slimmer so long as Uehara throws like this.

• Andrew Miller converted his eighth save in eight tries tonight continuing his awesome start for the Yankees. I still don’t think Girardi has officially named a closer, but there is also no need when it’s this obvious. In 9.1 scoreless innings pitched, Miller now has 17 strikeouts against four walks, good for a 1.34 FIP/2.06 xFIP. Meanwhile Betances, who was expected to close at the start of the season threw another scoreless inning himself lowering his 0.00 ERA to 0.00. Betances has 17 strikeouts in 11 innings pitched with a 1.91 FIP/2.50 xFIP of his own. QuanGorMo was effective several years ago on the Yankees but the BetanMiller duo has that beat and is possibly the best set up and closer option in all of baseball, real or fantasy.

• Quick Hits and Tidbits: Jeurys Familia nailed the save for the Mets and is a perfect 9-9 in save opportunities since replacing Mejia as closer. Aroldis Chapman allowed several inherited runners to score but got two outs to end the game the only way he knows how, via the strikeout. Kelvin Herrera and Wade Davis closed out the final two frames for the Royals tonight. There was no save situation involved but the Royals, particularly when Greg Holland returns, challenge the Yankees for the best relief combo in baseball. Zach McAllister threw 1.1 scoreless innings tonight, hitting 96.5 mph in the process. His stay in the bullpen could be a lengthier one and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him throw multiple solid innings out of the pen for the Indians and even inch his way up the pecking order in Cleveland.

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]

Not a large schedule of games today but a few bullpen bullet points to mull over this evening or in the morning with your coffee…

• Joakim Soria closed his fifth door of the year tonight, pitching a perfect inning against the Yankees. Meanwhile Joe Nathan is eligible to come off the DL on Wednesday but will likely “need a simulated game or rehab appearance in the minor leagues to get up to game speed.” So, the same Joe Nathan that was horrible in 2014, horrible in Spring Training and hurt himself immediately upon the start of the season is coming back soon and last we heard he was going to reclaim the job from Soria immediately. I’m tempted to call BS on Ausmus putting Nathan over Soria right away, but we might have to take the manager at his word as he makes the call. However, even if Nathan returns at closer I don’t like his chances of holding it for the rest of the year. Soria is the better option and I’m betting still ends the year with more saves. If Nathan is sitting on the wire, it’s worth picking him up and flipping him if/when he’s the closer again, but other than that hold onto Soria.

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After the Bullpen Report posted last night, Fernando Rodney blew a save against the Dodgers. Given that he allowed four runs and six base runners in his previous outing on Sunday, my baseball writer-heavy Twitter feed was awash with the names Danny Farquhar and Yoervis Medina with the pseudo-hipsters of the group bringing up Carson Smith’s name.

Some seem to think Rodney has already lost the closer’s job or will imminently, while others simply think he won’t last the year with the job. Given that he has 133 saves in the last three years and saved 48 games last year while blowing just two, I’m not as convinced that his job is in much danger. But to get a better idea, I want to take a look at Lloyd McClendon’s history dealing with struggling closers.  Read the rest of this entry »

• As some of you brilliant readers noticed last night, Mark Melancon was missing several mph off of his fastball. While I don’t believe his job is in danger due to performance, his decreased velocity could signal struggles to come, in which case Tony Watson and co. could replace him in the ninth inning. After averaging 92 mph on his fastball last year, Melancon sat at 89 mph last night. That’s obviously not a good sign but doesn’t signal a changing of the guard quite yet. Melancon will have ample opportunity to remain closer but closer monitoring of his velocity, coupled with any struggles could signal a future change.

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Darren rounded up last night’s closer news this morning, I’ll just hit up on what we have seen so far today.

• LaTroy Hawkins‘ recent implosions has led to his removal from the ninth inning in Colorado. According to Walt Weiss, Hawkins is getting a “break” but the feeling here is that it will be an extended one. It’s rare that struggling 42 year old relievers on bad teams lose their job to more talented relievers and get it back. If you’re in a deep, deep league I guess you can hold onto Hawkins, but I think it’s safe to give him the axe.

Adam Ottavino was long expected to fill in for Hawkins at some point this year but it looks as though Rafael Betancourt could have the closing duties for now. Betancourt received the save opportunity today and nailed it, throwing a perfect inning with two strikeouts in 16 pitches. Adam Ottavino was unavailable to pitch, and is the best reliever in the pen, but after Betancourt’s outing, he should get another chance. This one might be a coin toss with a slight lean towards Betancourt getting the next few opportunities, but both are must owns in all leagues.

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Neftali Feliz and LaTroy Hawkins both picked up their first saves of the season last night. Per ESPN’s live draft results, Feliz was drafted as the 25th reliever off the board on average and just inside the top 200 overall. Hawkins was drafted 38th among relievers and went at pick 226 overall. These are a couple of the names you wound up with if you chose not to pay for saves.

Maybe I’m wrong about this, but I assume the plan if you own guys like Feliz and Hawkins is to ride them out as long as they hold on to the closer’s job and squeeze as many saves out of them as you can. I ascribe to the “don’t pay for saves” philosophy and scrounge around late in drafts and on the waiver wire to acquire my saves. Typically when I get a guy who has the ninth inning job, I ride it out until he loses the job. But it occurs to me, as it may have occurred to you, that maybe it’s better to cash in that asset after a string of un-blown saves. Read the rest of this entry »

There isn’t any particularly breaking news today, but a few important updates on some previous bullet points discussed yesterday.

• Jenrry Mejia had a MRI today and although there was no structural damage, Mejia was placed on the DL with elbow inflammation. Jeurys Familia is the new closer and although a healthy Mejia is the better pitcher, there isn’t a particularly big difference so if Mejia is out for an extended period of time, Familia can hold onto the job. If he falters Carlos Torres and Rafael Montero are right behind him. Mejia can’t throw for at least the next 10 days after which he might feel no pain and be back in the ninth inning before we know it, but it’s still an unknown.

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Following the Braves trade of Craig Kimbrel, their only legitimate long term closer for the past 20 or so years, those in deep and long term leagues may be curious about what the Braves outlook is to replace Kimbrel both in the short and long term.

In the short term the answer certainly looks like it will be 38-year-old Jason Grilli. For as long as Grilli can consistently close games, he will be the ninth inning man. If he begins to struggle, Jim Johnson would be the likely successor – given he is pitching well at the time Grilli would be pitching poorly. Braves management also mentioned a candidate who would potentially fit in both the short and long term plans, if he were to stick I the role. They also have a few candidates that are either injured or in the minors, so below is my take on each of the three most likely long term closer candidates in Atlanta.

Juan Jaime

The Braves front office mentioned Jaime may get opportunities to save games down the line following Kimbrel’s trade. So, who is Juan Jaime? He is a fireballing 27-year-old Dominican who has essentially no command of his pitches and no legitimate second offering. That is not exactly a confidence booster I potentially acquiring him as a hopeful future closer, but Roger McDowell helped Craig Kimbrel and many others get their command under control and turn them into very impressive relievers. Kimbrel was going to be great anyway, but it is not certain that he would have handled his walk issues that he had as a minor leaguer as well as he did without the help of McDowell.

Jaime is in the bullpen right now and is likely the first right-hander the Braves will use before handing it over to their set up man Johnson. I picked him up in a long term dynasty league as he does have upside and is not terribly far from the role. I don’t love Jaime, but I could see the Braves developing him into a decent enough reliever that he can pile up strikeouts to mitigate his walk issues and be a reasonable closer.

Shae Simmons

If not for succumbing to Tommy John surgery in spring, it is likely that Simmons would actually be the Braves closer today. It would have been quite appropriate too, because Simmons is essentially a Kimbrel-lite in that he is small in stature but still throws heat and a quality breaking ball. He is of course not on the same level of Kimbrel, but he does possess the tools to be a dominant late inning reliever. In his short stint in the majors last year he recorded a 2.91 ERA and a 26% strikeout rate.

Walks were an issue and have been in the past, but across single and double-A in 2013 and 2014 he seemed to have honed in his command problems. Tommy John surgery will have him out the entire season but he could be ready for the start of next year. I would not anticipate him being handed the closer job right after returning from elbow surgery, but unless someone steps up and grabs the role with a choke hold lock, he should be a front runner to be the team’s closer by May or June of next season.

Mike Foltynewicz

During the Braves rebuilding process, they made sure to grab a number of high quality, high ceiling starting pitchers. This winter alone they acquired Matt Wisler, Tyrell Jenkins, Ricardo Sanchez, Max Fried, and Manny Banuelos. On top of that, their top three starters are under control for at least four seasons, so the Braves have a ton of young starting pitching. They will do whatever they can to allow Foltynewicz to shine as a starter, but it would not be the end of the world if they eventually decide the flame thrower who can hit triple digits would be suited best in a late inning bullpen role.

Given that they have such a plethora of young pitching, it would be a way to allow a number of them to get acclimated into major league roles that suit their talents best. Foltynewicz has made a number of top 100 lists and if he does move to a bullpen role, his fastball and curveball combination could make him deadly. He is probably the most valuable asset of the players I have covered in this article due to his potential as a starter, but if you are looking for the potential long term closer to stash away, I would be far from shocked if the Braves opt to move Foltyenwicz there in the near future. They already flirted with the idea of putting him in the bullpen during spring.

The return of another baseball season marks the return of another tradition: the search for talent in the far reaches of fantasy leagues. In this space, we’ll root through the dumpster bins as we try to locate the players who were either forsaken on draft day or who have stumbled on to playing time opportunities. Some guys will work out, some others — heh, perhaps more than some — won’t, but whether you’re looking for spare parts or trying to keep your head above water in a deep format, this column is for you.

Two quick notes: Most of the players discussed are best suited for mono leagues, although there is the occasional customer whose value extends to mixed formats. Finally, I use CBS for the ownership percentages.
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Opening Day is here and the closer carousel is in full swing.

• Colin touched up on the Craig Kimbrel trade fall out last night and as expected Jason Grilli was tabbed as Kimbrel’s replacement. Grilli threw a perfect inning today with two strikeouts for his first save of the year. Grilli’s fastball topped out at 97 mph today and he was consistently hitting 95 mph which is actually better than in his heyday as the Pirates closer. The options behind Grilli aren’t too appealing so if Grilli pitches reasonably well he should have no problem holding on to the job. Strangely enough, in some sense the better Grilli pitches the worse his job security would be as he would become an intriguing trade commodity for competing teams considering the Braves have clearly played their hand on not competing this season. Either way, I would advise you to run to the waivers to put a claim on Grilli and don’t be afraid to spend a lot of your FAAB budget on him as well.

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