It’s too early in the offseason to put together an updated grid as there are too many open spaces due to both Free Agency and unassigned roles. However, we won’t let the Bullpen Report be forgotten this winter and once a week we will check in with updates around the league that will affect your yearly chase for saves and holds.

• With relief aces Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and in some respects, Mark Melancon still on the market, the Cardinals went straight for Brett Cecil locking him up for four years and $30.5M. Dave Cameron listed Cecil has a potential 2017 bargain and Cecil signed a more team-friendly deal than Cameron even projected. Seung Hwan Oh is entrenched in the closer’s chair in St. Louis but with Trevor Rosenthal working to become a starter, Cecil should find his way to some high leverage innings along with fellow lefty Kevin Siegrist. The Cardinals have a lot of starting pitching depth, so Rosenthal isn’t assured a rotation spot by any means but it does mean his days of pitching high leverage spots in St. Louis might be coming to an end. Relief roles are changing rapidly, especially during the playoffs and while it’s impossible to carry over Andrew Miller’s October usage to April, it is possible that more teams will have relievers for multiple innings and that’s what I would guess the Cardinals are doing here.

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Relievers are having a moment. It’s been slowly building for a while, but this year might be the crescendo. Zach Britton foolishly being left out of the wildcard game paired with Cleveland’s excellent deployment of Andrew Miller seems to have ignited something of a reliever revolution. Their importance – especially in the playoffs – has never been questioned, but the prevalence of lockdown relievers throughout many bullpens has changed their value in fantasy leagues, too.

Saves still run the show, but many leagues have incorporated holds as a way of adding value to studly middle relievers and some are just so good that it doesn’t matter if they’re getting saves. Eight relievers logged 100+ strikeouts and only Kenley Jansen was a full-time closer. Seung Hwan Oh had 19, Ken Giles had 15, both Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller had 12, while Kyle Barraclough and Brad Hand combined for one (it was Hand’s).

Today, I have five high upside relievers who could be closing in 2017 or be so good that they’re useful enough without saves. They are listed in order of likeliness to close:

Adam Ottavino

OK, we’re cheating right out of the gate a little bit. Ottavino was just starting to close for Colorado when he was felled by Tommy John surgery in 2015 and he reassumed the role in September of this season after a couple months in a setup role. He finished with the role and will likely start with it again in 2017 while the others on this list will likely need to leapfrog a guy or three to get there.

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This season I had an idea for a recurring column called The Chacon Zone that never materialized (tip of the hat to @sporer for the name). The column would have been aimed at avoiding a common pitfall that I’ve succumbed to many times myself, improperly valuing saves and subsequently chasing them at my own peril. At what point does a closer’s poor performance negate the value of an occasional save?

I hoped to identify relief pitchers whose contributions in non-save categories would outweigh the Tony Cingranis and Brad Zieglers of the world. For a variety of reasons, most notably a lack of time and unusually low bullpen volatility early in the season, I never followed through. I’m hoping to rectify that with this end-of-season yet inaugural (?) edition of The Chacon Zone.

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Joe Camp won his league, probably because he reads us and listens to our podcasts here, I dunno, but that’s my guess, totally not because he’s an Associate Professor of electrical engineering. Anyway, he won his league, and his leaguemates started chirping about a couple trades he made that year that may have appeared lopsided at the time — my personal opinion is that vetoes suck, and are a dampener on league activity, and we should all be active and talking to each other as much as possible, so if you were on it, you would have made that lopsided trade first — and so Mr. Camp set out to prove he would have won the league anyway.

The way he did it? He took the worst team in the league and replaced everyone on the team with the best free agent pickups of the year. He then compared that team with everyone’s originally drafted teams. The free agents easily won — 96 points to 87 for the best drafted team.

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Seattle’s Edwin Diaz was called on for the four-out save and was tasked with facing the heart of Toronto’s line-up. After striking out Josh Donaldson to end the 8th, he then struck out Edwin Encarnacion to start the 9th and had to face Jose Bautista with a one-run lead. Well, Bautista took him deep for his second blown save of the season and the first earned run he had given up since August 30th when he blew his first save against Texas as well. The Mariners would win in the bottom of the 12th taking Diaz off the hook as Nick Vincent got his fourth win and R.A. Dickey gave up an unearned run to suffer his 15th loss.

Jeurys Familia suffered his fifth blown save of the season, although it was not your traditional one out save. With two on and one out in the 8th, Familia was called on for the 5-out save. After a double steal put two runners in scoring position and the Braves down by one, Matt Kemp would hit a sacrifice fly to tie the game, even though the run was unearned for set-up man Addison Reed as the runner, Ender Inciarte, reached on an error by James Loney. Familia would get out of the inning and come on for the 9th, when the Braves scored with two singles, a sac bunt, and a fielder’s choice. The game was not over as Jim Johnson came on in the 9th for the Braves looking for the sweep. After giving up a hit and a walk, with two outs Yoenis Cespedes stepped up to the plate and ripped one to deep center that looked like it was gone and would’ve given the Mets the dramatic win. Inciarte, however, would strike again and robbed Cespedes of a homer to secure Johnson’s 17th save.

Quick Hits: With Ken Giles unavailable after pitching two straight days, Luke Gregerson came on for his first save opportunity since July 6th. He gave up an unearned run, but managed to hold on for the save (15). Daniel Hudson held on for the 4-out save (4) in Arizona. Andrew Bailey (4), Tony Watson (15), and Cody Allen (15) all earned saves tonight, with Allen giving up a run in the 9th.

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]

Let’s throw another name into the mess known as the Giant’s bullpen. Derek Law was activated and pitched for the Giants for the first time since August 27th. He struck out the only batter he faced down 3-1 in the 9th, as Bochy said he will not use him high leverage situations just yet. Law has had a very strong year with a 1.93 ERA (2.30 WHIP), and could see some 9th inning chances as the season winds down and the Giants bullpen continues to struggle. For now, he is off the grid.

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• Some strange things going on in San Francisco. Santiago Casilla lost his role as closer earlier and Hunter Strickland who recorded a save on the 11th proceeded to give up four runs last night. Steven Okert, a lefty in the Giants pen, relieved Strickland in the ninth but promptly blew the save after allowing a homer to Ryan Schimpf. Bruce Bochy confirmed that Strickland is still his closer but Derek Law is due back today making Strickland’s leash considerably tighter. Sergio Romo and Will Smith might just be considered righty and lefty specialists at this point but they could possibly see some more chances and I wouldn’t fully rule out Casilla either, depending on how he finishes the year.

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It’s been a while since you’ve heard from us and we apologize for that. For tonight, I’m going to first update you on changes in the grid since the last time we put something out. Then I will close out with an update on tonight’s slate.

Bruce Bochy announced he will remove Santiago Casilla as closer and go with a committee. He then used him with a one-run lead tonight in extra innings and he gave up a game-tying home-run to Jake Lamb. This makes the Giants closer job very volatile and although Will Smith is at the top of the grid, this does not mean he will get first shot at save opportunities. If you’re in a Holds/Save league, go for one of the three Giants on the grid. If it’s just Saves, be cautious when picking up these relievers who have no hold on the job just yet.
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• Arodys Vizcaino has been sent back to the DL with shoulder inflammation and Shae Simmons has been recalled. Vizcaino was already moving back on the grid due to his performance and now he’s hurt again. Jim Johnson has been terrific of late with a 0.60 ERA since July 26th, throwing 15 innings with a 20/4 strikeout to walk ratio. everyone seemed to expect Vizcaino to reclaim the job, Johnson to start pitching poorly or for Johnson to be traded but that hasn’t happened and this situation is looking pretty green right now.

• The Diamondbacks ninth inning has been a bit of a mess of late but Dan Hudson locked down his second save of the year in spite of allowing an earned run. His ERA stands at a lovely 6.10 right now but he’s currently the closer and should continue to see save opportunities in the desert for now.

• Chasen Shreve recorded his first career save for the Yankees last night in extra innings. Dellin Betances threw two perfect innings but actually “blew” the save after he allowed Tyler Clippard’s inherited runner to score in the eighth.

• Andrew Miller and Cody Allen continue to seesaw with save opportunities with Miller getting his 12th save after getting the last five outs for Cleveland. Cody Allen threw a ton of pitches on Monday so he likely was unavailable and we will keep him as first in line in Cleveland, with recognition that it’s still a committee of two.

• Maybe we were a little quick to claim Edwin Diaz as the next best thing as he blew a save last night and has a 3.95 ERA since the month turned to August. However, in that time he still has 21 strikeouts in 13.2 innings pitched so the elite strikeouts are still there. On the year Diaz is supporting a 2.56/2.27/1.96 ERA/FIP/xFIP even with an inflated .400 BABIP. Plenty of reason to be excited but let’s keep watching in September to see if he’s still deserving of my earlier praise.

• Quick Hits: Another Orioles win and another scoreless frame for Zach Britton, notching his 39th save and lowering his ERA to 0.69. Mark Melancon saved his 37th game lowering his ERA to 1.30 on the season. Also, since 2013 across 274 innings, Melancon has a 1.74 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and a 2.24 FIP. He’s the elite of the non-elite strikeout guys and doesn’t seem to be slowing down. Alex Colome (29), Jeurys Familia (43),  Aroldis Chapman (31), Ken Giles (6) and Fernando Salas (6) all got saves as well.

Closer Grid:

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]

Although we had a long weekend, there were no major news stories from the bullpen, so we’ll keep this short and sweet. A couple of middle relievers had some role changes and one big name could be coming back soon. Read the rest of this entry »