Two seasons ago, I examined the chances the season’s initial closer made it the entire season without being replaced for any reason including injury. I went back and revisited the study and updated it with 2017 and 2018 results. While the initially calculated chances were low, the odds are getting even worse.

I posted to Twitter account my initial results for the last two seasons to make sure nothing was too far off. Thanks to everyone for the responses and here are the end results:
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• There aren’t many big closer changes this far into the season but it looks like the Braves are going to go with Arodys Vizcaino as the primary closer moving forward in Atlanta. With Vizcaino returning from injury and the calendar already pushing October, I figured the Braves wouldn’t make a full change like this, but Vizcaino has pitched quite well and the committee is now over. With Vizcaino in the top chair, look for A.J. Minter, Chad Sobotka to be the primary set up men with Brad Brach, Dan Winkler and others behind them.

• Earlier in the year, Trevor Hildenberger looked like a sneaky future saves option in Minnesota. While he’s reached the promised land of the 9th, he hasn’t been a particularly good option and after last night’s 4 run blow up, Hildenberger now supports a 5.25 ERA, 4.53 FIP, and more promising 3.68 SIERA. Paul Molitor will now move to a committee with the bullpen and we expect Taylor Rogers or Trevor May to receive the next save opportunity. It’s possible Hildenberger gets another opportunity before the season is over, and we don’t know what 2019 will bring, but Rogers (2.73 ERA/2.35 FIP) and May (3.43 ERA/3.41 FIP) have been better and will likely lead the committee in the last week.

• Jace Fry is slated to start a bullpen game for the White Sox which doesn’t necessarily take him out of the committee in Chicago as he’s not likely to throw more than an inning or two, but it does take him out of a potential save today. If you have him in your daily lineup for saves, I suggest you replace him with someone else today.

• Even though Mike Scioscia is stepping down as the Angles manager, he still finds time in the last week to make some last minute bullpen changes. Ty Buttrey had blown his last two save opportunities and last night Scioscia called on Hansel Robles for the save with Blake Parker pitching in the 8th.  Buttrey could have been unavailable having pitched in two of the last three games so we won’t make a change to the grid as he’s likely given a longer leash with “closer of the future” potential for the Angels. By keeping Parker in the 8th, the Angels could also be dictating this is the order moving forward, with Buttrey just getting a day off and Robles coming in to not upset the order. However, with all of that said, if Buttrey blows a third opportunity in a row, the Angels may not look to go back to him for the 9th in the season’s last days, even if he enters 2019 as the leading saves candidate.

• Due to Brad Boxberger’s recent struggles, the Diamondbacks are going to the most hated word in fantasy baseball – a committee, with Boxberger out. While it’s possible that Boxberger can string together a solid run and get back into the mix, we are going to take him off of the grid for now. In his place I would expect a combination of Andrew Chafin, Archie Bradley, Yoshihisa Hirano, Jake Diekman, and Brad Ziegler to see the ninth. It’s not that helpful to list off 5 names in a committee but that’s why it’s such a pain in our butts. Archie Bradley was always the presumptive favorite but he’s been terrible of late and unless the Diamondbacks want to give him a chance to prove himself in the middle of a playoff race, I’d expect them to mix and match with the other guys. For the first stab I’m putting Hirano, Diekman and Chafin on the list. Hirano is a righty so I’m guessing he could see more than the rest of the committee but with multiple lefty options in Diekman and Chafin it’s possible they see more saves, along with Brad Ziegler who just won’t go away!

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Hoping that everyone had a lovely Labor Day, here’s what went on with the bullpens on Monday…

• Bud Norris is currently struggling and although Jordan Hicks hasn’t been lights out, Norris may not be receiving consistent saves. I don’t want to overdo the alarm but Norris had a very poor Labor Day Weekend. On SAturday Norris received the L giving up 3 earned and 4 baserunners and yesterday he blew the save giving up 2 earned runs and allowing 4 baserunners while only getting two outs in the 9th.  On the year, Norris’ 3.86 FIP and 3.02 SIERA look good enough but with the Cardinals in a playoff race, he might not be their current best option. Additionally, with Norris on a one-year contract in St. Louis they aren’t beholden to him for future years. Cardinals manager Mike Shildt didn’t give Norris a resounding vote of confidence,  and I would bet that Jordan Hicks or a make-shift committee will see the next save opportunity in St. Louis. Without word from Shildt, we will keep Norris on top here, but note he is very red, with Hicks and Daniel Hudson currently behind him.

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• Mildly interesting night in Chicago in the 9th inning for the Cubs. The last third of the game started as usual with Steve Cishek handling the 7th and Carl Edwards pitching in the 8th with the ball being handed to Strop for the final frame.  In the 9th, Strop walked Jose Bautista to start the inning, got Jose Reyes on a force out and then gave up a single to Kevin Plawecki. With two on and one out, Joe Maddon called on Justin Wilson to face the lefty Jay Bruce. Wilson couldn’t get Bruce out and exited the game with bases loaded and still just one out. New-ish Cub Jesse Chavez then came on and struck out Amed Rosario and Austin Jackson for his 3rd save of the year. While Pedro Strop wasn’t given the opportunity to clean up his mess, I believe he’s still very much the Cubs closer. However, we can’t be surprised to see Joe Maddon give anyone the quick hook if he feels someone else gives him the best option. Strop’s done a great job and Morrow doesn’t look likely to return right away so I would still bet on his saves total being the highest from here on out over anyone in Chicago, even if Justin Wilson or Jesse Chavez gets a rogue chance. Note that I didn’t include Brandon Kintzler in that grouping and took him off the grid as he’s been quite abysmal in Chicago. He might play his well into higher leverage set up innings but he’s not sniffing the 9th.

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• After being used like a yo-yo in the rotation and relief, Sergio Romo has had his ups and downs this year but has actually been quite terrific of late in the closer’s seat in Tampa. On the year he’s supporting  a 3.48 ERA/3.40 FIP/3.26 SIERA and since June 19th he has an ERA of 1.33. With all of that said, the Rays went to Jose Alvarado last night for the save with Sergio Romo available as far as we know. Lefty Lucas Duda started the inning which could be why the Rays went to Alvarado over Romo but it wasn’t a particularly strong lefty heavy lineup that followed. The Rays situation was as fluid as any this year before Romo started putting up consistent zeroes, so we are keeping Romo alone in the chairr for now but if Alvarado starts seeing the ninth again we will have to consider moving this situation back to the frustrating committee situation we had to endure earlier.

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• Although he’s not pitching particularly well and he’s not on a particularly good team saves are saves and Trevor Hildenberger is getting them for the Twins. Hildy closed out a 6-4 win for the Twins for his third save of the year, issuing one walk and striking out a man in the 9th inning. This situation still might be fluid but after going 3-3 on saves I’m expecting Hildenberger to receive the lion’s share of opportunities as we close out the season.

• On August 7th, Ken Giles allowed 5 earned runs without completing an inning and his role at the MLB level let alone as closer seemed to be in jeopardy. Since then he’s allowed 2 runs in 4 innings but is also 3-3 on saves, suggesting the Blue Jays are going to roll him out  for each save opportunity moving forward. Of course nobody is immune to multiple melt downs but I’d expect Giles to have a solid leash moving forward. On the season, his 6.04 ERA looks unsightly but he’s also running a 41/4 k/bb with a 3.45 FIP and 2.85 SIERA. Giles peripherals are always dominant but he’s been prone to gopheritis this year. He may not be as dominant as his line would suggest but if he can avoid the long ball, he could have a strong finish.

• Every year there are a few bullpen situations that arise that give you a heart attack on who to pick up for saves, and right now that seems to be the White Sox. Jeanmar Gomez started the ninth but was unable to finish the inning as Luis Avilan came in for the save. I’m fairly certain Gomez won’t see the next save opportunity but I’m not sure if Avilan will either. I’m calling this a full on committee with Xavier Cedeno, Juan Minaya, Jace Fry, and honestly anyone else in the pen who is scheduled to be available that night in Chicago. While I said saves are saves for Hildenberger above, this might actually be a different situation where the recommended course of action is to avoid.

• No save situation for the Cubs as it was a four run lead but Pedro Strop threw a scoreless ninth nonetheless. Strop’s done an excellent job filling in for Morrow and on the year has a 3.16 FIP and 3.56 SIERA. He’s not elite but he’s plenty good enough and closing on a top team that should provide many save opportunities for the rest of the season. How many saves go to Strop and not Morrow depends on the latter’s recovery. Right now Morrow is expected to throw from a mound this weekend but his return date to the majors is still in question. Maybe this is an optimistic Strop owner talking, but I don’t expect Morrow to be back soon and when he does return I’m not confident that he will immediately take over his old role. Strop is doing the job and so long as he’s putting up 0’s in the 9th, he should continue to rack up saves.

• Quick Hits: Another game another Edwin Diaz save as he picked up his 47th in extras against the A’s. Pairing 47 saves with an ERA under two and 103 strikeouts and counting, Diaz has been a top 10 player in fantasy this year. You can’t predict guys to get 60 saves in a season but he’s proven to be one of a few elite options for this year and likely in next year’s drafts. Seranthony Dominguez got four outs for his 13th save. The Phillies might throw a wrench or two and give some others a save chance but Dominguez is still the man to own there. Cody Allen pitched a perfect 7th and 8th innings with four strikeouts handing the ball to Hand for his 28th save, continuing what has become a committee of great options in Cleveland. AJ Minter struck out a pair and received his 11th save. He’s closing with Arodys Vizcaino is on the DL but considering this job became fluid when he was healthy, I would bet on Minter holding the job even when Vizcaino returns.

Closer turnover has been crazy over the last month or so. Based on the latest Bullpen Report, only 10 current de facto closers were in that same role heading into the season. That’s nuts! It’s also precisely why I don’t pay market prices for the top tier of closers on draft day. It’s not because I don’t think they will earn that value (guys like Craig Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman certainly have), but because there are so many saves available for free during the season, I prefer to spend my auction budget elsewhere.

After recent trades of their incumbents, the Twins and White Sox have not formally announced a replacement closer. Between the two teams, the Bullpen Report identifies five pitchers total that would form committees. That’s essentially saying we have no idea. So let’s speculate!

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• With Anthony Swarzak on the shelf, the Mets end of game situation has turned into a bit of a committee approach. Last night Bobby Wahl got the second out in the 7th and handed the ball off to Gsellman who finished the 7th and 8th innings. In the 9th, Jerry Blevins came in for the save, his first of the year. Gsellman looks like he’s being used as the relief ace with Wahl, Blevins and Seth Lugo lingering around for potential saves. Wahl has the stuff you would normally see in a closer but it doesn’t look like the Mets are going to turn over closing duties to him right away by any means. I’m keeping Gsellman ahead of the committee here but look for Lugo, Blevins and Wahl to get involved as well moving forward. If the Mets get enough leads over the next week, we will have a better idea which direction they might be leaning.

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• The first of two big trades in the bullpen world yesterday was the Houston Astros trading with the Blue Jays for Roberto Osuna in a deal including Ken Giles. The Astros are deserving of all the bad publicity they’re getting for acquiring Osuna and his disgusting recent transgressions but on a purely baseball level, Osuna is an upgrade to their bullpen. Osuna is expected to pitch in another minor league appearance this week before being activated in Houston for Sunday. While we expect Osuna to be the main closer in Houston once he is acclimated, Hector Rondon should man the ninth until then.

Ken Giles was demoted after struggling a bit this year in Houston, but now in Toronto it’s expected that he will be back in the majors, closing games. However, we’re going to start the grid with Ryan Tepera still manning the ninth inning for now even if the expectation is that Giles has it soon.

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