Archive for Catchers

Here are your updated catcher rankings. I’m going to stick with FANS projected wOBA for now, with a switch to 2010 stats after the first month is over.

Big Three
Joe Mauer (.409 wOBA)
Brian McCann (.378)
Victor Martinez (.373)

Like I said last week, and probably will every week, this isn’t going to change without an injury occurring.

Happy to Have
Matt Wieters (.364)
Russell Martin (.346)
Jorge Posada (.361)
Geovany Soto (.354)
Kurt Suzuki (.332)

Geo Soto not only moves into this group, but he also passes Suzuki in the process. Soto started out extremely slow, but it looks like he may have found his rhythm and will see plenty of playing time because of it. As long as Sweet Lou is confident in Geo, I will be, too.

Name That Molina
Bengie Molina (.305)
Yadier Molina (.330)

Bengie, along with a good chunk of the Giants offense, is hitting well right out of the gate. Yadier is going to give you batting average, and the fact that he has already hit two homers is a good sign. Maybe.

Nameless
Ryan Doumit (.330)
Carlos Ruiz (.331)
A.J. Pierzynski (.313)
John Baker (.333)

I’m not going to lie to you; I couldn’t think of a name for this group. Maybe it should be called “Unexcited”, “The Butcher, John Baker, and a Candlestick Maker”, or “I am Jack’s Catcher.” None of these guys do anything to make me want them on my roster, but I’ll pick them up if I have to. Also, if you don’t get the vague pop culture reference, maybe you should have a Edward Norton movie marathon.

Questionable
Chris Iannetta (.366)
Jeff Clement (.350, ZiPS and CHONE)
Ivan Rodriguez (.286)
Chris Snyder (.331)
Miguel Montero (.352)

So many question marks, so little production. Each of these guys has their upside, but all have their own set of problems. I really hope Miguel Olivo gets in a fiery car wreck, or whatever horrible accident Dave decides to go with this week.

I Hate Mike Scioscia
Rod Barajas (.296)
Carlos Santana (.348, CHONE)
Mike Napoli (.363)
Jeff Mathis (.276)

I’m moving Santana above Napoli and Mathis, because the LAA catcher situation is going to be a crapshoot all year long.

The Rest of ‘Em
Jason Kendall (.290)
Kelly Shoppach (.341)

Shoppach is on the DL with a knee injury, which is being listed as a sprain but could in fact require surgery. He wasn’t getting a whole lot of playing time to begin with, but this isn’t good.

Coming into the season, most considered Angels’ backstop Mike Napoli to be one of the dozen best fantasy catchers in the game, and why wouldn’t they? He had a .362 wOBA with 20 homers and 56 RBI in 432 plate appearances last season, a year after going .399-20-49 in 264 PA in 2008. CHONE forecast another 19 homers in 2010, which is fantasy gold from a catcher.

And yet, Mike Scioscia loves him some Jeff Mathis. Just loves him. Mathis has started seven of the team’s nine games (including today), relegating Napoli to backup/pinch-hitting duty. Even worse, Mathis is fueling Scioscia’s mancrush by hitting .350/.364/.500 with a .368 wOBA in the early going. However, expecting that to last is just plain foolish. Mathis has a .266 career wOBA in close to 900 plate appearances, and his slugging percentage is his 31 points lower than Napoli’s on-base percentage. I’m well aware that Mathis has a good defensive rep with Napoli has quite the opposite, but sheesh.

Napoli is owned in 67% of Yahoo! leagues, and 100% of his owners are frustrated by his lack of playing time. There is some hope though. The Halos are just 2-6 with 29 runs scored, and when teams start to lose games in bunches and struggle to score runs, one of the first things the manager will do is mix up the lineup. With his never-ending contract and status as The Greatest Manager Who Ever Lived™, Scioscia should know that swapping Mathis with Napoli is the easiest move to make if he wants his team to score more runs. Plus there’s always the possibility of an injury, given the nature of the position.

Until that happens, the fantasy owners suffer. The possibility of 20 jacks from a catcher is too good to let go this early in the season, so dropping him shouldn’t even be a consideration. Hold on to Napoli for the time being and just ride out the storm. Try to grab Chris Snyder (11% owned) or heck, even Mathis and his somewhat hot start (4%) to hold you over. Napoli and his bat will find their way into the lineup eventually, at some point Scioscia won’t have much of a choice.

Back for week two, here are your catcher rankings. Since we are only a week into the season, I am still going to list the players’ wOBA projection from the FANS. However, some of the rankings have moved based on playing time and a small bit based on their opening week’s performance.

Big Three
Joe Mauer (.409 wOBA)
Brian McCann (.378)
Victor Martinez (.373)

None of these three moved after week one. With their track record, I wouldn’t expect this group to change all season barring injury.

Happy to Have
Matt Wieters (.364)
Russell Martin (.346)
Jorge Posada (.361)
Kurt Suzuki (.332)

I really like what I’ve seen out of Martin, thus far, so let’s hope that continues. Jorge has been solid, as always, and Suzuki is looking good out of the gate, as well.

Cautiously Optimistic
Geovany Soto (.354)
Ryan Doumit (.330)
Yadier Molina (.330)

Moving down is Mr. Soto, but I still like him. I think at some point Lou will realize that he needs to get him more AB’s, which will boost him back up to the bottom of the second tier. Yadier moves up all the way from number 16, due to his early showing of power. I know it’s early and sample size is an issue, but he has me dreaming of 15 dongers at this point.

Recycled
Bengie Molina (.305)
A.J. Pierzynski (.313)
Carlos Ruiz (.331)
Rod Barajas (.296)

Ruiz is the big mover here, moving up seven spots. This isn’t due to his fast start, but more me re-evaluating my rankings. Most of it comes from the fact that some of the players above him needed to move down due to playing time issues, but nevertheless, Ruiz moves up. Barajas also debuts on the list, and it looks like he’ll get a big chunk of playing time in The Big Apple.

Questionable
Miguel Montero (.352)
Chris Iannetta (.366)
Jeff Clement (.350, ZiPS and CHONE)
Ivan Rodriguez (.286)
John Baker (.333)

To be fair to Montero, who fell this far due to an unknown timetable for his return from a torn meniscus, here is what I said about him before the MRI results came back: “And the first move up goes to Montero, who moves up one slot and into the second tier. He had an injury scare recently, but the reports I have read seem to indicate that he’s fine.”

Pudge makes his debut on the list, due to his move to the NL and his nice start. Jesus Flores may not be ready to make an impact at all this year, so Pudge will see significant time behind the plate. Iannetta moves down due to a time share with Miguel Olivo. I didn’t expect Iannetta to lose playing time so early, so I’m expecting this to last all season. Such a shame, too.

Screw You, Mr. Manager
Mike Napoli (.363)
Kelly Shoppach (.341)

I like power from my catcher hole. I really do. But, Shoppach and Napoli aren’t seeing much time, and in Napoli’s case, may not for awhile.

The Rest of ‘Em
Carlos Santana (.348, CHONE)
Jeff Mathis (.276)
Jason Kendall (.290)

Yes, I’d rather have a guy in the minors than Kendall or Mathis. And yes, I’d rather have Mathis’ current backup over him.

Like Eno mentioned on Thursday, we will be updating the positions throughout the year to help you gauge trade offers and possible waiver pickups (for those wimps in shallow leagues). Without further ado, here is a look at the catcher position. Since we haven’t played any games (no, last night didn’t count), wOBA numbers are based on FANS projections unless otherwise noted.

Big Three:
Joe Mauer (.409 wOBA)
Brian McCann (.378)
Victor Martinez (.373)

Mauer really should be in a class all his own, but McCann and Martinez are good enough to stick with him. MockDraftCentral has Martinez being picked before McCann, but I’d rather have the man with the magic eyes. I have McCann hitting for a higher average and hitting more balls out of the park, so it’s a no-brainer in my book.

Happy to Have:
Matt Wieters (.364)
Russell Martin (.346)
Jorge Posada (.361)
Kurt Suzuki (.332)

This is a strange and diverse group. We have an up-and-comer (Wieters), a slightly injured player who is looking to bounce back (Martin), an old guy (Posada), and solid regular (Suzuki). I really liked Martin this year before his injury, and I still think he’ll be fine and put up a good line. If he doesn’t, well, some of my teams are going to have a hole to fill.

Cautiously Optimistic:
Geovany Soto (.354)
Miguel Montero (.352)
Mike Napoli (.363)
Ryan Doumit (.330)
Chris Iannetta (.366)

I wanted to put Soto into the “Happy to Have” group, but I think he may be too much of a question mark. I have him penciled in for 18 jacks and a .270 average, and I’d be happy with that with where I drafted him in a couple leagues. Some are much higher on Montero then I am, but his batting average scares me. Napoli and Iannetta are both good power options, and Doumit is a good batting average guy, but all will either share time or miss time due to injury.

Recycled:
Bengie Molina (.305)
A.J. Pierzynski (.313)

Guess what? These guys are old. Bengie really shouldn’t be starting ahead of Buster Posey, but Brian Sabean really likes fat players (or so it appears). Pierzynski won’t hit .300 again, and his HR’s could get dangerously close to single digits. Not a fan of drafting either of these guys this year, and would probably rather have a couple of the guys listed below.

The Rest of ‘Em:
Jeff Clement (.350, ZiPS and CHONE)
Yadier Molina (.330)
John Baker (.333)
Kelly Shoppach (.341)
Carlos Santana (.348, CHONE)
Carlos Ruiz (.331)

I actually like Clement this year in deeper leagues, even with my deep distrust of him after his failed stint in the Mariners system. Molina is a great real life catcher, but isn’t anything special in 5×5 leagues. Shoppach and Ruiz will both murder your batting average and won’t see more than 400 plate appearances. I really like Santana, but I don’t know how long the Tribe intends to keep him in the minors.

This is the first part of a series that will check up on injured players and recent injuries during spring training.

– Brandon Webb is working his way back from shoulder issues, and threw 43 pitches in a bullpen session on Sunday. He also threw 45 pitches in a previous bullpen session on Thursday. The D’Backs are trying to get him ready for some in-game appearances by mid-March, but that may be far too optimistic. Arizona has a shot to be good this year, and if they are smart they will baby him along and attempt to get 25-28 starts out of Webb this year. All looks well with Webb, but that’s what we thought going into last year, and continued to think that at times during the rehab process. If he looks healthy, take a shot at Webb.

– Brandon Inge is still going through the rehab process after undergoing surgery on both knees this offseason. Inge thinks he’ll be ready to start the year, but some Tigers officials aren’t as optimistic. Inge is “bored”, and that is leading him to try to come back from his injury quicker, which is not the best thing for him. During the first half of ’09, Inge was a stud, and it’s unclear if his second half was due to regression, injuries, or a combination of both. Now, with bad knees and lost catcher eligibility, he’s no longer draftable.

– After missing a vast majority of 2009, Daisuke Matsuzaka is continuing to work his way back for the 2010 season. He threw off a mound, although the catcher was standing, and also participated in some long toss. The Red Sox are willing to admit that Dice-K won’t be ready for opening day, but it looks like they hope he will be ready to go sometime in the first month of the season. The Red Sox may choose to go with a four-man rotation until Dice-K gets back on the mound, but they could also place Tim Wakefield in the starting rotation. Wakefield is always a strange fantasy pickup, but he could be a nice waiver wire guy for wins.

More injury notes:

• Jose Reyes tripled in an intersquad game yesterday. Hard to gauge a speed guy with a leg injury, but Reyes could be fantastic value in the late second round.
• Jesus Flores admitted that he won’t be ready for opening day. He has shown some promise in the past, but his shoulder problems combined with the arrival of Pudge will kill his value.
• After an early scare, Jair Jurrjens’ shoulder seems to be doing better. He is throwing from long distances and hopes to get on the mound next week. Until I see him on the mound, I’m skeptical.

As you can probably gather from our first book offering, the 582-page FanGraphs Second Opinion fantasy companion (now available for less than $8), we’re pretty serious about fantasy baseball around here. As such, this post launches our official RotoGraphs fantasy draft order rankings as you prepare for your upcoming drafts. We’ll be rolling out Top 15 lists for each position over the next little while and we’ll be updating them throughout March to give you the most accurate information as you shape your 2010 (winning) rosters. At least four RotoGraphs writers weighed in on each positional ranking.

The Top Targets:
1. Joe Mauer, Minnesota (.438 wOBA)
2. Victor Martinez, Boston (.375 wOBA)
3. Brian McCann, Atlanta (.359 wOBA)

It should come as no shock that the reigning American League MVP is the top target amongst catchers. Mauer’s value should be helped by a full season from Justin Morneau, as well as the additions of second baseman Orlando Hudson and shortstop J.J. Hardy, both of whom will reduce the playing time for the offensive vacuum known as Nick Punto. A better-balanced lineup can only help Mauer’s RBI and run totals.

Martinez is a great player to have in your fantasy lineup because he is eligible at both catcher and first base, which gives you added flexibility. A full season in Boston (He was traded from Cleveland midway through 2009) should have a positive effect on his numbers – especially in terms of RBI opportunities, and he should see better pitches now that he has more protection in the lineup.

McCann got off to a slow start in ’09 and April was pretty much a write-off thanks to vision problems, which are no longer a concern. On the downside, the Braves lineup is not significantly better than it was in ’09 so he will have limited protection in the lineup if Chipper Jones and/or Troy Glaus start to show their age.

The Next Best Thing:
4. Jorge Posada, New York AL (.378 wOBA)
5. Matt Wieters, Baltimore (.330 wOBA)
6. Miguel Montero, Arizona (.357 wOBA)
7. Russell Martin, Los Angeles NL (.307 wOBA)
8. Mike Napoli, Los Angeles AL (.362 wOBA)

Clearly, Posada had an outstanding year in ’09 but he appeared in just 111 games and the 38-year-old can’t swim in the fountain of youth forever (although New York should obviously try bottling whatever Posada, Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera are drinking). On the complete opposite end of the spectrum, Wieters is just coming into his own. You even might be able to draft the catcher in a favorable spot if your fantasy baseball owners are still feeling let down by his ’09 season. Wieters had an encouraging debut for a 23-year-old catcher, but expectations were incredibly (and unfairly) high for him.

Montero seized the starting gig away from Chris Snyder in ’09 thanks to an injury but fantasy managers would probably feel a little bit better if Snyder was off-loaded to another club in spring training (after proving his health). Martin appeared to be on the cusp of fantasy greatness a couple years ago, but his power has dried up. Still, there aren’t many backstops that can steal you 10-20 bases in a season and he’s reportedly bulked up a bit in an effort to hit more taters. Napoli would perhaps be more deserving of a higher ranking if A) Jeff Mathis projected to have fewer at-bats, or B) The club would give more at-bats to Napoli at DH. Unfortunately, the addition of former Yankee Hideki Matsui will eat up most of the DH opportunities.

The Leftovers:
9. Geovany Soto, Chicago NL (.310 wOBA)
10. Chris Iannetta, Colorado (.346 wOBA)
11. Kurt Suzuki, Oakland (.321 wOBA)
12. Bengie Molina, San Francisco (.308 wOBA)
13. Yadier Molina, St. Louis (.337 wOBA)
14. Ryan Doumit, Pittsburgh (.306 wOBA)
15. A.J. Pierzynski, Chicago AL (.326 wOBA)

Of the “leftovers,” the highest potentials come from Soto, Iannetta, and Doumit. Soto was not in great playing shape last season and he’s reportedly motivated to recapture his past Rookie of the Year glory. Iannetta has the offensive bonus of playing in Colorado, but the free agent signing of Miguel Olivo could mean fewer at-bats, unless the youngster breaks out in a big way. Doumit’s ’09 season was ruined by injuries and he appeared in 75 games. He has good power for a catcher but he’s also hurt by a below-average offense in Pittsburgh.

Up Next: The First Basemen

Remember J.R. Towles? A few years back, Towles was the cream of a rather barren crop of Astros prospects. Baseball America rated the backstop as Houston’s top farm talent prior to the 2008 season, praising his diverse skill set and noting that the Astros envisioned Towles becoming the club’s first All-Star catcher since 1991, when Craig Biggio was blocking pitches instead of turning two.

Entering 2010, however, Towles’ career prospects are considerably dimmer. He made his big league debut in September of 2007, but two bitter cups of coffee in 2008 and 2009 have soured Houston’s opinion of its former prized pupil. And, if you listen closely, you can hear 2008 first-round pick Jason Castro breathing down Towles’ neck.

The Astros have received precious little from the catching position. In 2008, Houston had a collective .256 wOBA from those donning the tools of ignorance (29th in the majors). The team “improved” to .276 in 2009, rocketing up to 28th in the big leagues. Offensive ciphers like Brad Ausmus, Humberto Quintero and Ivan Rodriguez have been penciled into the lineup, as Towles toiled in Triple-A, on the bench or on the DL.

So, what’s going on here? Is Towles a bust, or have the Astros shot themselves in the foot by preferring veterans with slack bats? Who shot J.R.’s career? Let’s examine Towles’ history to figure out who done it.

Selected in the 20th round of the 2004 draft out of North Central Junior College, Towles basically spent the first three seasons of his pro career bashing and getting banged up.

He struggled in rookie ball during the summer of ’04, but batted a combined .327/.402/.534 in the Low-A South Atlantic in 2005 and 2006. Towles didn’t draw many walks (7.2 BB%) but he made frequent, loud contact (14.6 K%, with a .207 Isolated Power). Unusually agile for a catcher, Towles also earned some Jason Kendall comps by swiping 24 bases between ’05 and ’06 (he was caught 12 times, however).

However, Towles couldn’t answer the bell with any frequency. According to Baseball America, he needed surgery in 2004 after taking a foul tip off of his right index finger, slowing him at the start of 2005, and he dealt with right knee tendinitis in 2006.

Two-thousand seven turned out to be J.R.’s breakout campaign. He started slowly in the High-A Carolina League, but mashed after getting bumped up to the Double-A Texas League following Lou Santangelo’s 50-game PED suspension. He also logged some games in the Triple-A Pacific Coast League.

In 422 combined PA, spent mostly in Double-A, Towles hit .287/.393/.447. J.R. drew ball four 8.8 percent of the time, whiffing 13.5 percent with a .160 ISO. Towles stole 14 bags, but he did far more harm than good by getting nabbed 13 times. A late-season stint in Houston was fruitful (a 157 wRC+ in 44 PA).

Towles looked poised to ease the anguish of Astros fans subjected to way, way too much Ausmus and Quintero behind the plate. From ’07 to 2009, he compiled .289/.375/.455 triple-slash with Round Rock, walking 9.3 percent, striking out 15.5 percent and posting a .166 ISO.

Yet, after two dismal stints with Houston, Towles’ career line in the majors would make Ausmus puff out his chest: .188/.280/.329 in 268 PA, a performance which rates as 38 percent worse than average, once park and league factors are accounted for (62 wRC+).

Those numbers probably make fantasy owners want to run and hide. But those willing to give Towles a chance could snag a quality offensive catcher at a dirt cheap price.

Chill out about the major league performance. We’re talking about half of a season’s worth of PAs, spread over three years. Even if you want to slice and dice such a small sample (not a good idea), there are positives to be found. Towles has drawn a walk 8.2 percent, with a .141 ISO. His BABIP in the majors is unsustainably low, at .218.

The career .299/.390/.473 minor league hitter is projected by CHONE to bat .252/.332/.409 for the Astros in 2010. For reference, the overall line for MLB backstops last season was .254/.320/.395.

The 26 year-old has little star potential, and Castro (ranked as Houston’s top prospect) isn’t far off. Also, injuries remain a problem: according to the Fantasy Pitch F/X DL Tool, J.R. was sidelined in both 2008 and 2009 with a strained hamstring, while missing time in ’09 with a fractured nose, too. But Towles figures to get the bulk of the playing time to start 2010.

Towles is far from a sure thing, given his propensity to get dinged up and Castro’s close major league ETA. Still, he has an interesting bat at a position where offense is often scarce. J.R. might not be long for Houston, but his career isn’t shot, either.

San Diego Padres signed C Yorvit Torrealba to a one-year, $1.25 million contract with a $3.5 million mutual option for the 2011 season.

Torrealba, 31, is expected to split time behind the dish with Nick Hundley. Dusty Ryan, designated for assignment by the Tigers and picked up by the Padres in a December trade, is likely ticketed for Triple-A Portland.

In part-time play last year, Torrealba turned in his best offensive season since he was a Giant back in 2004. He batted .291/.351/.380 in 242 plate appearances with the Rockies. However, there’s little reason to believe that he’ll replicate that production in 2010.

Torrealba’s BABIP was .355 in 2009, compared to a .298 career mark in the majors. And clearly, the change in home ballparks is massive. When you take Coors Field into account, Torrealba’s ’09 production at the plate was still 16 percent worse than average (84 wRC+). His career wRC+ with Colorado is 77.

So, with plenty of extra hits dropping in and the benefit of Coors, Torrealba was still a tepid batter. Now, he’s going to cavernous Petco, anathema to all things offense. CHONE projects a .242/.301/.353 line in 2010, with a 73 wRC+.

Oakland Athletics traded LHP Dana Eveland to the Toronto Blue Jays for a PTBNL or cash.

A husky left-hander, Eveland has now been traded three times during his career. The Brewers’ 16th-round pick in the 2002 draft was swapped to the Diamondbacks in November of 2006, and then headed to Oakland in December of 2007 as a sweetener in the Dan Haren deal.

In four seasons at the Triple-A level, the 26 year-old punched out 7.7 batters per nine frames, with 3.4 BB/9. He struggled in three cups of coffee in the majors from 2005-2007.

But Eveland tossed 168 frames in 29 starts with the A’s in 2008, with 6.32 K/9, 4.13 BB/9 and a 4.55 xFIP. There’s nothing awe-inspiring about that line, and he did often back himself into hitter’s counts (54.7 first-pitch strike percentage, compared to the 58-59% MLB average).

However, Eveland’s four-pitch mix garnered ground balls 48.7 percent of the time. His 90 MPH fastball was worth -0.31 runs per 100 pitches, with his high-70’s curve (-0.18) and low-80’s changeup (-0.49) also in the red. But Eveland’s bread-and-butter offering was a low-80’s slider, thrown over 23 percent of the time with a +1.76 run value per 100 tosses.

2009, by comparison, was a disaster. In 44 frames with Oakland, Eveland struck out just 22 batters and issued 26 free passes. He wasn’t 7.16 ERA-level bad, but that 5.20 xFIP was still plenty grim. Eveland’s fastball velocity dipped to 88.7 MPH. At Triple-A Sacramento, the southpaw posted rates of 6.7 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9, with a 4.33 FIP in 124 innings.

There’s little downside from Toronto’s perspective, as they pick up the recently DFA’d Eveland at little cost. If he can find the form that allowed him to pitch at a league-average level in ’08, Eveland could fight for a spot at the back of the Blue Jays’ rotation. It’s an awfully crowded competition, however. His CHONE forecast for 2010? A 4.59 FIP in 144 innings, with 5.44 K/9 and 3.94 BB/9.

Washington Nationals signed INF Adam Kennedy to a one-year, $1.25 million contract with a $2 million club option for the 2011 season.

Kennedy will man second base for the Nationals, meaning that Cristian Guzman will remain at shortstop for the time being and that Ian Desmond does not have a defined role with the club at the outset of the 2010 season.

Signed to a minor league deal by the Rays last year, Kennedy was traded to the A’s and split his time between second and third base. In 587 PA, Kennedy batted .289/.348/.410 with a 108 wRC+. He nabbed 20 bases in 26 attempts to boot.

Kennedy didn’t come anywhere near that offensive level from 2006 to 2008 (a combined 77 wRC+), and he turned 34 in January. It’s not surprising, then, that the projection systems aren’t too fond of him: CHONE calls for an 89 wRC+, as does Marcel. Given his multi-position eligibility and ability to swipe some bags, Kennedy could have a tiny bit of value in NL formats early next season. Just don’t expect an ’09 repeat.

Once again a fantasy freak is allowed out into the light, and, well, I feel the pressure to be… fantastic. But how better to represent what we’ve been doing on RotoGraphs than to continue a series that gets right at the heart of what FanGraphs’ beautiful numbers can do for you in fantasy? That’s right, we’re checking out players from our tiered ranking series that are likely to outperform their Average Draft Position (ADP) as determined by MockDraftCentral.com.

It’s a mouthful, but remember, in the words of the immortal Black Sheep, “You can get with this, or you can get with that, I think you’ll get with this, for this is where it’s at.” It’s all about choosing the right player at the right spot.

For example, Victor Martinez is a fine young man. He’ll probably hit twenty home runs and have a nice batting average. His runs and RBI should be elite for a catcher, given the lineup surrounding him and his home ballpark. His ADP (24.19) reflects all of these things by placing him at the end of the second round. You could get with this.

On the other hand, there’s Brian McCann, who is also a fine young catcher. The fans have him hitting a couple more home runs, though, probably because his ISO has been much steadier and more impressive (.183, .222, .205 since 2007) than Martinez has shown (.205, .086, .177 over the same time period). Of course, picking McCann may come with a little more risk in the batting average department. There is the matter of his .270 batting average in 2007 in some minds. But McCann had a sub-.300 BABIP that year for the only time in his career, despite also owning a .307 xBABIP that year. It looks like he’s at least a reasonably solid bet to give similar value to Martinez… and he’s going as much as two rounds later according to his ADP (42.37). Among the top-tiered catchers, this is where it’s at (for value).

Once the top three catchers go, the ADPs plunge into the 100s, and for good reason. Because of the way the average catcher is used, the top 12 catchers by at-bats averaged 490 at-bats compared to 586 average at-bats for the top 12 first basemen last year. That’s 16.4% fewer at-bats. So before you use any pick on a catcher, remember that he’s going to get 15% fewer chances than the average position player – and also that his poor batting average will be 15% less hurtful than a bad batting average on a player at a different position.

In the next tier, Miguel Montero and his emerging game make for a good value given his draft position (149.78). He’s shown a .173+ ISO three seasons running, and seems to have finally reigned in the strikeouts to a reasonable level (18.6% last year). He’s also twelve years younger than the more expensive Jorge Posada (116.53 ADP). Catcher-years can catch up to a catcher in his late thirties. (Catch that?)

I could certainly get with Kurt Suzuki (131.37 ADP), but Russell Martin is cheaper (137.89) and more likely to offer a handful of extra steals. In the end, I’m probably just going to bypass the lot of them and go for end-game sleepers like the always-solid never-exciting AJ Pierzynski (246.68). As commenter Bas noted on our Check the Position: Catcher piece, AJ and Suzuki have similar high-contact, low-walk-rate, medium-power approaches – why you would pay almost ten rounds more for Suzuki? Certainly not for those five steals.

Finally, a word for a deep league ADP value guy. John Baker was first made famous for his inclusion in Billy Beane’s wishlists in Money Ball, and won’t hurt you with his low ADP (318.62). Jesus Flores, on the other hand, has an ISO that’s going in the right direction and is even cheaper (332.92). Provided Flores is healthy, both are fine late-round additions in deep leagues.

The Cleveland Indians enjoyed the services of switch-hitting dynamo Victor Martinez until his trade to Boston last summer. Soon enough, another power-hitting backstop who takes cuts from both sides of the plate (Carlos Santana) figures to pick up where V-Mart left off.

Until then, Lou Marson will try to establish himself as more than just Santana’s placeholder. The 23 year-old came to Cleveland from Philadelphia in last July’s Cliff Lee trade, along with INF Jason Donald, RHP Carlos Carrasco and RHP Jason Knapp.

Philly’s 4th-round pick in the 2004 draft, Marson was a premium high school quarterback prospect in Arizona. He broke his collarbone as a senior, however, and decided to focus on baseball.

The 6-1, 200 pound righty batter didn’t light up the box scores in the Gulf Coast League in 2004 (.257/.333/.389 in 126 PA) or the Short Season New York-Penn League in 2005 (.245/.329/.391 in 252 PA). Still, Marson controlled the strike zone (10.6 BB%, 18.5 K% between the two stops), and Baseball America said he was capable of becoming “an intelligent, dependable receiver with an above-average arm and solid power.”

It was more of the same in Marson’s 2006 full-season debut. He hit a mild .243/.343/.351 in 410 PA in the Low-A South Atlantic League. While he showed little pop (.109 ISO) and his K rate crept up (23.4 K%), Marson drew walks at a 12.3% clip. That advanced eye, coupled with Marson’s blossoming receiving skills, led BA to gradually nudge him up Philly’s prospect list (27 in 2005, 23 in 2006, 19 in 2007). However, there were holes in his offensive game: “his swing can become very long at times, and breaking balls give him fits.”

In 2007, Marson made significant progress at the plate in the High-A Florida State League. Batting .288/.373/.407 in 457 PA, he maintained a patient approach (11.7 BB%) while paring down his whiff rate (20.4 K%) and lacing a few more extra-base hits (.120 ISO). Marson moved up to 8th in the Phillies farm system prior to the 2008 season. BA noted a shift in hitting philosophy: he “shortened his swing and developed a much more consistent two-strike approach.”

Bumped up to AA Eastern League in 2008, Marson did nothing to dent his improved prospect status. He hit .314/.433/.416 in 395 PA, taking a free pass a whopping 17.4% of the time and punching out 21.7%. Marson’s ISO (.102) was down somewhat, and a .389 BABIP no doubt played a big role in the batting average spike. Even so, he earned a September call-up and climbed to third on Philly’s list of farm products before the 2009 campaign. Though they considered his power ceiling low, Baseball America lauded Marson’s advanced plate discipline and “professional approach.”

Marson actually spent much of April in the majors in 2009, helping to fill in for a banged-up Carlos Ruiz. He was sent to the AAA International League once “Chooch” was healthy. In 241 PA with Lehigh Valley, Marson posted a .294/.382/.370 triple-slash, with a 12.4 BB%, a 19 percent K rate and a .076 ISO.

After the Lee swap, Marson was sent to AAA Columbus, where he batted a bland .243/.319/.340 in 116 PA. He walked 8.8%, whiffed 18.4% and had a .097 ISO. Lou’s overall AAA line in ’09 was .277/.361/.360. Marson got some starts in Cleveland in September. In 72 total big league PA between the Indians and Phillies, he hit .246/.347/.361, with a 14.4 BB%, 34.4 K%, and a .115 ISO.

Kelly Shoppach is now a Tampa Bay Ray. Santana thrashed AA pitching last year (.290/.413/.530), but he underwent surgery to remove a broken hamate bone in his right hand in December. The needed recovery time might push back Santana’s major league ETA, and he’ll likely open 2010 with Columbus. The only other catcher on the 40-man roster is 27 year-old Wyatt Toregas.

As such, Marson has a short window to avoid being cast as a backup at the major league level. He’s definitely not going to hold off Santana’s impact bat for long, and perhaps Cleveland will prefer to keep Marson as a capable second-string option. But he could become trade bait again if he shows promise.

CHONE has Marson hitting .255/.342/.349 in 2010, while ZiPS envisions a .247/.338/.325 line. He reminds me of Cincinnati’s Ryan Hanigan (good eye, little power), though he doesn’t have Hanigan’s contact skills. Marson has a shot at being a starting catcher in some other city later on, but he may be best utilized as Santana’s caddy in the long term.