Archive for Catchers

George Kottaras, Brewers (Owned in 1% of Yahoo Leagues)

With Gregg Zaun (torn labrum) possibly done for the season, Kottaras is drawing the bulk of starting assignments behind the dish for Milwaukee.

The former Padres and Red Sox prospect owns a career .269/.367/.444 line in the minor leagues, including a .239/.331/.424 showing in Triple-A. Kottaras, 27, displayed good patience (13.3 BB%) and pop (.175 ISO) on the farm as a backstop, but he was often panned for his lack of defensive prowess — Sean Smith’s Total Zone system rates Kottaras as 18 runs below average during his minor league tenure.

Milwaukee is apparently willing to stomach Kottaras’ adventurous D in exchange for his bat, and with a strong showing in 2010, the lefty batter now has a .230/.353/.443 line and a .350 wOBA in 215 career major league plate appearances. Kottaras has rarely gotten himself out, swinging at just 15.6% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (25-27% MLB average recently).

Kottaras will have to contend with prospect Jonathan Lucroy for playing time, but he’s worth a roster spot if he continues to get penciled into the lineup. ZiPS projects a .237/.341/.412 triple-slash for the rest of the year, with a .338 wOBA.

Kris Medlen, Braves (10%)

Eno Sarris mentioned the 24-year-old as a potential steal last month, and since then, Medlen has continued to deal.

A 10th-round pick out of Santa Ana Junior College in the 2006 draft, Medlen murderized minor league batters, first as a reliever and then out of the starting rotation. In 227 total innings (79 ‘pen appearances, 23 starts), the 5-10, 190 pound righty punched out 10.4 batters per nine innings, issuing just 2 BB/9.

In the majors, Medlen has 8.38 K/9, 3.03 BB/9 and a 3.69 xFIP in 116 innings (46 relief stints, nine starts). In its 2009 Prospect Handbook, Baseball America said that the converted shortstop featured a 92-94 MPH fastball and a plus curveball that reached the high-80’s, as well as a solid slider and changeup. His repertoire in the big leagues has looked decidedly different: Medlen’s sitting about 90 MPH with his heater, relying heavily upon an 81 MPH changeup while adding in some high-70’s curves.

That might not scream “power pitcher,” and Medlen has predictably whiffed fewer batters as a starter. But, according to Trip Somers’ texasleaguers site, Medlen hasn’t lost zip on his fastball while facing lineups multiple times, and he’s doing an outstanding job of locating the fastball, change and curve for strikes.

Everyone wanted it to happen except for the Giants, or at least it seemed that way. San Francisco finally called on top prospect Buster Posey today, and will start him at first base against the Diamondbacks tonight. He’s best known as a catcher and he’d provide the most value to the team from behind the plate, but for fantasy purposes, the more first base Posey plays, the better.

It’s Fantasy 101: he has catcher eligibility but will play at least part of the time at a less demanding position, which translates not only more at-bats in general, but (theoretically) better offensive production given the decreased wear and tear. It’s a win-win.

The Florida State product simply annihilated the minors during his season-plus stint there, racking up a .333/.427/.552 batting line in 750 plate appearances, almost all of them while squatting behind the plate. Baseball America ranked Posey as the 7th best prospect in the game coming into the season, calling him “a pure hitter with terrific strike-zone awareness, and his clean, unfettered swing allows him to drive pitches from pole to pole,” though they acknowledge that power isn’t his game. It’s not hyperbole to say he has the best plate approach of anyone in the organization, big leagues included.

CHONE projects a .329 wOBA in 2010, while ZiPS pegs him for .333. Both of those obliterate the .309 wOBA starting catcher Bengie Molina has put in 40 games this year, nevermind the .308 wOBA he fashioned last season. His homerun power might be minimal at the outset considering his home park and some of the parks in the NL West, but Posey should contribute solid AVG and OBP (if your league counts that) while surely chipping in a few RBI as well.

Posey is owned in just 15% of Yahoo! leagues, and right now he’s only eligible at catcher. He’ll pick up 1B eligibility in a week or so, and while it’s not terribly important, a little flexibility never hurt anyone. If your struggling to find production from the catcher’s spot – perhaps you’re stuck with an injury fill in like Francisco Cervelli – then there’s probably no better option on the waiver wire right now.

Minnesota Twins recalled SS Trevor Plouffe from Triple-A Rochester.

Plouffe, who will turn 24 in June, was the 20th overall pick in the 2004 draft. The California prep product touched the low-90’s on the mound, but the Twins liked his potential to develop into a quality defender at a premium position and handed him a $1.5 million bonus.

During his first three years in pro ball, Plouffe scuffled at the plate. He hit .283/.340/.380 in the Rookie-Level Appalachian League in ’04, then followed up with a .223/.300/.345 triple-slash in the Low-A Midwest League in 2005 and a .246/.333/.347 line in the High-A State Florida State League in 2006. Plouffe showed a decent eye in A-Ball, walking in about 10 percent of his plate appearances, but he didn’t hit with much authority.

Upon reaching the upper levels of the minors, Plouffe has taken more of a grip-it-and-rip-it approach. At the Double-A level, he batted .272/.326/.410, walking just 6.7 percent and bumping his Isolated Power to a still-modest .129. In Triple-A, Plouffe has an overall .267/.317/.427 line. He has drawn a walk 6.5 percent, with a .160 ISO.

While he has mostly played shortstop, Plouffe has also dabbled at second and third base to improve his appeal as a big league utility man. With Minnesota, Plouffe will provide an extra infield glove while J.J. Hardy (wrist) continues his rehab. The odds of Plouffe becoming a solid every day starter appear slim at this point, as his shortstop D hasn’t been as advertised and his bat projects as below-average–CHONE and ZiPS both had sub-.300 wOBA forecasts for him prior to 2010.

Milwaukee Brewers placed C Gregg Zaun (strained right shoulder) on the DL; purchased the contract of C Jonathan Lucroy

The Brew Crew’s third-round pick in the 2007 draft, Lucroy has generally shown fantastic plate discipline and mid-range pop during his minor league career. The Louisiana-Lafayette product, who will also turn 24 in June, beat up on less experienced pitching in the Rookie-Level Pioneer League in 2007. He then hit a combined .301/.377/.495 between the Low-A South Atlantic League and the High-A Florida State League in 2008, walking in 10.6 percent of his PA with a .194 ISO.

Last year, Lucroy moved up to the Double-A Southern League and posted a .267/.380/.418 line. His power declined against more advanced hurlers (.151 ISO), but he drew a free pass 15.4 percent of the time while lowering his K rate from 17.7 in ’08 to 15.6 in ’09.

He began 2010 back at Huntsville, but earned a promotion to the Triple-A Pacific Coast League after getting off to a .452/.500/.524 start in 47 PA. With Nashville, Lucroy has struggled in a small sample (.238/.265/.363 in 83 PA). If there’s any concern, it’s that he hasn’t shown his typically discerning eye: he has walked just 5.3 percent between the two levels. Given his track record, it’s probably just a blip on the radar.

Lucroy’s defense has drawn mixed reviews–before 2010, Baseball America said he “needs to improve his game-calling skills,” and that “scouts are divided over whether Lucroy projects as a regular or a backup in the majors.” For what it’s worth, Lucroy’s D rates well according to Sean Smith’s Total Zone system.

Prior to the season kicking off, CHONE projected a .250/.337/.382 line (.322 wOBA) in the bigs for Lucroy, while ZiPS envisioned a .245/.326/.378 (.316 wOBA) triple-slash. With Zaun out, Lucroy will get whatever playing time doesn’t go to George Kottaras. The former Padres and Red Sox prospect has a .237/.336/.402 rest-of-season ZiPS projection, with a .331 wOBA.

The Yankees and fantasy owners will be without the services of Jorge Posada for at least 3-4 weeks, as the switch-hitting backstop has a hairline fracture in his right foot. Posada suffered the injury on a Michael Cuddyer foul tip this past Sunday.

The 38-year-old was off to a scorching .326/.406/.618 start in 2010, with a .441 wOBA. Sans Posada, New York won’t turn to uber-prospect Jesus Montero, a prodigious power hitter in Triple-A who’s just 20 years old and elicits unfavorable scouting reports behind the dish. Francisco Cervelli will get the bulk of the starts until Posada is healed.

Cervelli, 24, was signed out of Venezuela back in 2003. Prior to 2009, though, he was known mostly as “the dude that Elliot Johnson crushed at home plate in spring training ’08” (somewhere in Cleveland, Shelley Duncan just got all twitchy). During his minor league career, the 6-1, 210 pound righty batter posted a .273/.367/.380 triple-slash. Cervelli had a 9.4 percent walk rate, striking out 20.6 percent and rarely driving the ball with a .107 Isolated Power.

Baseball America ranked Cervelli 23rd in the Yankees’ system prior to 2008 and 21st before 2009, but left him off the 2010 top 30 as the club accumulated an embarrassment of riches at the catching position (Montero, Austin Romine, Gary Sanchez and J.R. Murphy all made New York’s top 10 according to BA). Cervelli’s catch-and-throw skills were touted in his ’08 and ’09 write-ups, but BA questioned his offensive ceiling:

2008 (John Manuel)

While he has a good swing, he lacks the premium bat speed or strength to hit for power. The ball doesn’t jump off his bat. He does draw some walks, but more advanced pitchers will be more likely to challenge him without fear of reprisal.

2009 (Manuel)

Cervelli lacks the bat speed and strength to produce more than below-average power, and while he has shown good plate discipline in the minors, he’ll have to earn the respect of pitchers at higher levels.

Over the 2008-2010 seasons, Cervelli has logged 187 plate appearances. His line sits at .319/.358/.410, with little in the way of secondary skills (4.8 BB%, .090 ISO) but a high contact rate (13.3 K%) and a .359 batting average on balls in play that’s going to regress (his minor league mark is .336).

Cervelli hasn’t been a hacker, as his 26.2 outside swing percentage is close to the big league average. But, as Baseball America’s Manuel alluded to, major league pitchers are challenging him–Cervelli has gotten a fastball 66.4 of the time, with 52.4 percent of his pitches seen being thrown within the strike zone (48-51% MLB average).

Coming into 2010, CHONE projected a .257/.311/.376 line (.300 wOBA), while ZiPS had a .255/.307/.380 forecast (also a .300 wOBA). Cervelli’s fast start this season has his rest-of-season ZiPS line up to .282/.337/.423 (.334 wOBA), which seems like an awfully large jump, particularly in the power department (.141 ISO). Personally, I would take the “under” on that projection.

Cervelli is relatively young, and his development has been delayed by some kooky injuries (a broken wrist in the Johnson collision that torpedoed his ’08 season and a concussion sustained on a backswing in ’09 among them). But .413 wOBA start aside, he’s probably more of an adequate offensive catcher than any sort of breakout star. Those in mixed leagues might want to turn to someone like L.A.’s Mike Napoli (owned in 47% of Yahoo leagues) or Arizona’s Chris Snyder (13%) instead.

Aloha, America! Another week means another look at the catcher rankings. Just like last week, wOBA numbers are listed as “(Current, ZiPS Updated).”

The Big Three
Joe Mauer (.409, .416)
Brian McCann (.362, .374)
Victor Martinez (.278, .339)

Victor has lowered his strikeout rate, but that has come with a decrease in his walk rate, as well. He still has a .227 BABIP, and with a 22% LD rate, Victor’s batting average will rise sometime soon.

Happy to Have
Matt Wieters (.317, .335)
Geovany Soto (.426, .378)
Russell Martin (.331, .340)
Jorge Posada (.433, .380)

Geo Soto, consider yourself moved up! Last week, commenter “hamandcheese” said that he would “rather have Soto than any of the other guys in his group.” While I didn’t go as far as to move him ahead of Wieters, I did reevaluate his ranking and decided to move him up to number five. Which reminds me to remind you, the reader, to continue challenging these rankings in the comments. For the most part, I do my best to read through them and do some extra thinking about the player(s) in question.

Name That Molina
Bengie Molina (.375, .340)
Yadier Molina (.320, .332)
Ryan Doumit (.339, .340)
Kurt Suzuki (.368, .340)

Suzuki should be back in the next couple of days, but I want to see him come out of the gates and hit before I move him up any higher.

I Am Jack’s Catcher
Ivan Rodriguez (.371, .318)
Miguel Olivo (.392, .338)
Carlos Ruiz (.418, .366)

Olivo snapped out of a small slump, and Pudge is still showing life. Ruiz is slightly hampered by a knee issue, so keep an eye on that over the next week.

Problem Children
A.J. Pierzynski (.241, .300)
Chris Snyder (.340, .352)
Miguel Montero (.498, .360)
Mike Napoli (.392, .338)

It sounds like the White Sox may be open to dealing Pierzynski, and while leaving The Cell may not be the best thing, getting traded to Texas wouldn’t be a bad idea.

The Rest of ‘Em
Jeff Clement (.247, .323)
John Buck (.389, .349)
Chris Iannetta (.244, .334)
Rod Barajas (.361, .327)
Ronny Paulino (.350, .328)
Carlos Santana ( – , .348)
Jake Fox (.261, .317)

I can’t even look at Iannetta’s name without shaking my head, turning towards Denver, and making an obscene gesture.

Authors Note: I know there has been some interest in this, and I’ve never stated a public policy on it, so I figured I’d make it known. Feel free to send me an email with a question about your team, using the email address hyperlinked below this post. Of course, you can also send it to the RotoGraphs Mailbag, if that is more your cup of tea.

Back after a week lost to illness, here are your catcher rankings. wOBA numbers are listed as “(current wOBA, ZiPS ROS)”. If the wOBA numbers are a couple of points off, don’t sweat it, because it’s just me writing these things up ahead of time.

Big Three
Joe Mauer (.388, .414)
Brian McCann (.347, .370)
Victor Martinez (.316, .364)

Victor had himself a week. He still has a nice LD%, unlucky BABIP and bad HR/FB%, but they are getting closer to normal. Enjoy the rest of your season with one of the games top catchers.

Happy to Have
Matt Wieters (.334, .341)
Russell Martin (.309, .340)
Jorge Posada (.406, .351)
Geovany Soto (.484, .366)

Half of the time Wieters puts the ball in play, it’s on the ground. Not good. If Jorge wasn’t so old, I’d be more excited about his start. Oh, and a HR/FB% of 27.8% doesn’t help his cause, either. Geo Soto has been tearing it up, and he’s walking more than he’s striking out thus far.

Name That Molina
Bengie Molina (.369, .324)
Yadier Molina (.358, .337)
Ryan Doumit (.364, .346)

Bengie’s average will go down, but he should show more power than he’s displayed thus far. If Ryan Doumit wouldn’t get injured every year, he’d be so much cooler.

I Am Jack’s Catcher
Kurt Suzuki (.367, .336)
Carlos Ruiz (.388, .339)
Ivan Rodriguez (.400, .299)
John Baker (.301, .320)

Suzuki wasn’t all that impressive early on, and an intercostal strain seems like something that could bother him when he comes back. I’m not overly worried yet, so let’s wait before pronouncing him dead.

Problem Children
A.J. Pierzynski (.253, .319)
Jeff Clement (.231, .340)
Miguel Olivo (.348, .313)
Chris Snyder (.372, .354)
Miguel Montero (.497, .351)
Mike Napoli (.321, .362)

When Pierzynski’s .202 BABIP regresses to the mean, it’s going to be glorious. Glorious! For someone who is supposed to be a power hitter, Jeffy likes to hit the ball on the ground. Is it okay if I call him Jeffy?

The Rest of ‘Em
Chris Iannetta (.243, .343)
Rod Barajas (.355, .308)
Jake Fox (.247, .326)
John Buck (.353, .317)
Carlos Santana

Welcome Fox and Buck to this list. And as far as Iannetta goes, getting sent to the minors is a good thing, right?

Joe Mauer owners received some bad news on Sunday, as Minnesota Twins manager Rod Gardenhire said that Mauer (bruised left heel) may be week-to-week as opposed to day-to-day. With Mauer ailing, the Twins summoned prospect Wilson Ramos from Triple-A Rochester.

Ramos, 22, signed out of Venezuela in 2004 and ranked as the second-best talent in the Minnesota system (per Baseball America and Marc Hulet) entering the season. BA also named Ramos as its Winter Player of the Year after he mashed as a member of the Tigres de Aragua.

The 6-0, 220 pound righty batter has a career .288/.336/.441 line in the minors, including a .317/.341/.454 triple-slash during a 2009 season spent mostly at Double-A. Ramos is very aggressive at the dish (career six percent walk rate), but he makes a good deal of contact and has some pop, as his 18.1 percent K rate and .153 ISO attest.

While Ramos seems capable of becoming a quality starting catcher in the majors one day, he has struggled to stay healthy: he broke the tip of his left middle finger and injured his hamstring last year, missing nearly three months total. Also, Ramos doesn’t have much experience in the upper levels of the minors. He took 214 trips to the plate at Double-A last year and was off to a slow start at Triple-A this season (.179/.214/.328 in 70 PA, with three walks and 15 punch outs). CHONE projected a .263/.303/.394 line prior to 2010, and ZiPS had a .256/.297/.369 forecast. Four-for-five start aside, Ramos might not hit the ground running.

Here are some other backstops with relatively low ownership rates who may be available in your league:

Mike Napoli, Angels (owned in 51% of Yahoo leagues)

Some fantasy players abandoned Napoli due to his anemic showing so far (.184/.298/.265, .271 wOBA). However, Jeff Mathis (fractured right wrist) is on the shelf and Bobby Wilson (concussion, ankle) got hit by a freight train named Teixeira. ZiPS projects a .356 rest-of-the-season wOBA for Napoli.

Chris Snyder, Diamondbacks (23%)

With Miguel Montero (left knee surgery) out, Snyder is getting the bulk of the starts behind the plate for the D-Backs. Snyder suffered a back injury and had some lousy luck on balls put in play in 2009 (.237 BABIP). In 2010, however, he’s off to a .262/.357/.508 (.373 wOBA) start. He is projected to post a .352 wOBA for the rest of the season.

Nick Hundley, Padres (6%)

Hundley has received 16 starts to Yorvit Torrealba’s nine thus far, and he’s slashing .273/.365/.418 (.344 wOBA). Hundley won’t continue to boast a .350+ BABIP, so expect that average to drop. Even so, he hit a decent .238/.313/.406 in ’09 and possesses solid secondary skills for a catcher (career 8.3 BB% and a .147 ISO). ZiPS isn’t all that optimistic, though, with a .300 wOBA projected from here on out.

After posting a .368 wOBA with 34 homers over the last two season, Rockies’ catcher Chris Iannetta finally appeared to be free from the shackles of Yorvit Torrealba and on his way to a full-time starting job in 2009. He was a top 15 fantasy catcher coming into the season, but things have hardly gone according to plan.

Iannetta woke up this morning with a .243 wOBA with more strikeouts (11) than times on base (8), and his playing time greatly reduced. The Rockies’ are close to putting him out of his April misery, as indications are that the team is ready to send him back to the minors. That means their catching job belongs to none other than Miguel Olivo .

Olivo has started seven of Colorado’s last ten games, and he’s quietly leading all big league backstops with five homers. The guy has yet to meet a pitch he didn’t like, and he’s very much a known quantity at this point; if given 400 or more plate appearances, you’ll get about 15 long balls, 50 RBI, and a terrifyingly bad OBP. Thankfully, in standard 5×5 leagues, that last part isn’t a concern. Coors Field still boosted homers by a little more than 8% last season, so there’s another plus.

Olivo is still available in 49% of Yahoo! leagues at the moment, and is worth the pickup if you’re in a two catcher setup, or are dealing with some injuries. His .311 AVG (.375 BABIP) isn’t going to last obviously, but you can enjoy it while it does. The HR and RBI are where it’s really at with Olivo.

Here are your catcher rankings. Being a day late and a dollar short is a good thing, right? Numbers are still preseason FANS projections, unless otherwise noted.

Big Three
Joe Mauer (.409 wOBA)
Brian McCann (.378)
Victor Martinez (.373)

I didn’t think I would ever consider it, but V-Mart needs to get his act together or he’s in danger of moving down the list. Consider yourself on notice, Victor.

Happy to Have
Matt Wieters (.364)
Russell Martin (.346)
Jorge Posada (.361)
Geovany Soto (.354)

No changes in this order. I wouldn’t expect much change for the rest of the year, either. Soto is still heating up, and I’m really glad I have him right now.

Name That Molina
Kurt Suzuki (.332)
Bengie Molina (.305)
Yadier Molina (.330)

I was considering moving Suzuki down in actual rank this week, but hitting three homers keeps him afloat. He’s only hit three line drives all year, so that’s not a good sign going forward.

I Am Jack’s Catcher
Carlos Ruiz (.331)
Ryan Doumit (.330)
John Baker (.333)
Ivan Rodriguez (.286)

You all should be ashamed of yourselves for making fun of the great Edward Norton. Just for that, you will have the privilege of reading my posts with references from his movies all year long. You did it to yourself, America.

Wait and See
A.J. Pierzynski (.313)
Jeff Clement (.350, ZiPS and CHONE)

A.J. and Clement are both better than they are playing thus far, so just hang back and let lady luck get back on their side.

Problem Children
Chris Snyder (.331)
Chris Iannetta (.366)
Mike Napoli (.363)
Miguel Olivo (.312)
Miguel Montero (.352)

Olivo makes his debut on the list. I like the power he’s shown, but a 41.7% HR/FB rate is ridiculous. You really don’t expect him to slug .707 this year, do you? Once he starts cooling off, Iannetta will get more at bats and will shine.

The Rest of ‘Em
Carlos Santana (.348, CHONE)
Rod Barajas (.296)
Jeff Mathis (.276)
Kelly Shoppach (.341)

Can anyone call The Tribe and beg them to call up Santana? Please? Also, Jason Kendall falls all the way off of the list because he sucks.

Angels’ catcher Jeff Mathis will miss the next six to eight weeks with a broken wrist, bringing joy to all of you Mike Napoli owners out there. I wrote about Mike Scioscia’s inexplicable and continued loyalty to Mathis last week, advising you to just hold tight to Napoli and wait for a switch to be made or an injury to occur. Well, the injury has occurred.

Napoli’s only competition for playing time now is Bobby Wilson, who was only on the roster as the third catcher because he’s out of the options and the team doesn’t want to lose him to waivers. Hard to blame them. The 27-year-old Wilson has appeared in one game and has gotten just one plate appearance this year, though he has a reputation of being a solid defensive catcher. Never underestimate the power of Nichols’ Law, so don’t be surprised that the less Wilson hits, the more he plays because of his defense.

For you Napoli owners, you’ve finally got a chance to enjoy into some of that power. He started behind the dish tonight, but he’s batting ninth, so the RBI opportunities might be a little scarce at the outset. A homerun is a homerun though, and homeruns from catchers in fantasy is always a boost. Napoli is still available in 45% of Yahoo! leagues, so run out and grab him if you need an upgrade behind the plate.