Archive for Catchers

Lost in the Jason Bay, Marlon Byrd and Kelly Johnson signings, Miguel Olivo has agreed to a deal and will be joining the Rockies next year. The thought is that Olivo will be the Rockies backup catcher, but could he challenge incumbent Chris Iannetta for playing time?

After hitting .264/.390/.505 with 18 homers in 407 plate appearances in 2008, Iannetta was penciled in as the Rockies starting catcher going into the 2009 season. He started the ’09 campaign slowly, hitting .174/.333/.391 during the first month of the season. He bounced back in May, hitting 5 homers with a .276 average in 66 plate appearances. Late in the month of May, Iannetta hit the DL with a thigh strain. After his return from the DL, Iannetta’s batting average did not please the Rockies, and he lost playing time to Yorvit Torrealba. Iannetta played only 9 games in September and October, and ended the year with a .228/.344/.460 line with 16 homers in 350 plate appearances.

Iannetta’s LD% dropped from the 21.4% mark he posted in 2008, down to 16% in 2009. He also hit less grounders, focusing on getting the ball elevated in an attempt to hit more homers. His 14% HR/FB rate was down from his 18.2% mark he had in 2008.

While a drop off in LD% is not a good thing, most of Iannetta’s problems came from a fluky BABIP. His stats suggest an xBABIP around .306 last year, while his actual BABIP came in at a low .253 mark. Fans are currently projecting a .255 average with 21 homers for Iannetta, who is currently the 11th catcher being taken off the board according to Mock Draft Central’s ADP reports.

Olivo is another power hitting catcher, but doesn’t walk like Iannetta does. Olivo posted a .249/.292/.490 line playing for the Royals last year, adding 23 homers to the mix in 416 plate appearances. A career big league line of .243/.278/.423 is disgusting, but his raw power potential has attracted many teams to Olivo and given him a career for the last eight years. Right now he is the 16th catcher off the board according to ADP, but that is likely to decline now that he is no longer a starting catcher.

It seems that the Rockies intend for Iannetta to hold onto the starting role next year, but have a backup plan just in case. They don’t trust Iannetta for some reason, but if he can manage to keep Lady Luck off his back next year, Iannetta should be able to hold onto the starting catchers job and give good value to fantasy owners.

With Christmas just a day away, it’s time for some last minute gift shopping. However, not everything that a fantasy baseball owner may want is available for purchase. Here is a list of items that all fantasy owners want, but are outside of their control.

1. A starting job for Scott Podsednik

Steals are always a problem in fantasy baseball. But if Scott Podsednik can find a starting job this offseason, there may be one more source of steals out on the market. In 587 trips to the plate for the White Sox last year, Podsednik stole 30 bases in 43 attempts, and hit .304 with 75 runs scored. Now that the White Sox have acquired Juan Pierre, Podsednik is out of a gig. Surely someone will have a home for the man who stole 70 bags in 2004, but will that home include a starting gig? One can only dream.

2. Russell Martin to get his act together

In 2007, Martin hit .293 with 19 homers and 21 steals, making him one of the most hyped catchers going into 2008. He took a small step back in ’08, hitting .280 with 13 homers and 18 steals. While it was a down year, he was still well liked going into drafts last year. But, in 2009, he hit .250 with 7 homers and 11 steals, making his fantasy season a forgetful one. To be fair to Martin, his line drive rate has increased in both 2008 and 2009, and his .285 BABIP in ’09 says he should bounce back in 2010. But, the loss of power is concerning, even if he can post a solid average and steal some bases.

3. Adrian Beltre to sign with the Red Sox

With the Mike Lowell deal falling through (for now), this looks like a pipe dream. He never got along with Safeco field, never hitting more than 26 homers in his 5 years in Seattle. If he moves to Fenway, one can only imagine the numbers he would put up. I’d be willing to bet on a 30 HR, .280 year from the third baseman.

What else would you like for Christmas this year that you can’t control?

Tampa Bay Rays traded Mitch Talbot to Cleveland Indians as the PTBNL in the Kelly Shoppach deal

26 years old and out of minor league options, Talbot gets a fresh start in going from the pitching-rich Rays to the Indians. After mid-season deals that landed Cliff Lee in Philly and Carl Pavano in Minnesota, Cleveland lacked a big league starter with an xFIP under 4.50.

Originally taken in the 2nd round of the 2002 draft by the Houston Astros, Talbot was swapped to Tampa (along with Ben Zobrist) in July of 2006 for Aubrey Huff.

The 6-2, 200 pound righty doesn’t overwhelm with stuff. Baseball America says his fastball sits 88-91, though with tailing action. Talbot also possesses a cut fastball, a curveball and a changeup. In the minors, the Utah prep product has whiffed 7.4 batters per nine innings, with 2.6 BB/9. He’s not known for blowing batters away, but Talbot limits the walks and keeps the ball on the ground (career 53.9 GB% in the minors).

Talbot toiled at AAA Durham from 2007-2009, though his ’09 season was shortened by an elbow injury. Courtesy of Minor League Splits, here are his major league equivalent lines:

2007: 5.11 FIP, 5.82 K/9, 4.57 BB/9
2008: 3.76 FIP, 6.45 K/9, 2.59 BB/9
2009: 3.58 FIP, 6.46 K/9, 3.16 BB/9

CHONE projects a 4.91 big league ERA for Talbot in 2010, with 5.65 K/9, 3.35 BB/9 and 1.15 HR/9. He could work his way into the back of Cleveland’s rotation.

Detroit Tigers traded Dusty Ryan to San Diego Padres for a PTBNL or cash

Detroit’s 48th round selection in the 2003 draft, Ryan barely made a peep at the plate until 2008. The 6-4, 220 pound righty batter missed three months with a knee injury in 2007. Baseball America’s scouting report on Ryan mentions that the Tigers nearly moved him to the mound after he failed to crack the Mendoza Line in ’07.

Dusty’s career prospects bounced back in ’08, however, as he hit a combined .266/.346/.491 in 419 PA between AA Erie and AAA Toledo. He also made his major league debut and cracked a couple of homers. Ryan spent most of 2009 back in the International League, batting .257/.359/.455 in 235 PA.

The 25 year-old backstop displayed strong secondary skills the past two seasons. He walked in 10.5% of his plate appearances with a .225 ISO in 2008, then walked 12.3% with a .198 ISO this past year. Contact, however, has been elusive (29.1 K% in 2008, 27.2 K% in 2009). BA called Ryan “vulnerable to breaking balls.”

Due to those issues with breaking stuff and subsequently high punch out rates, Ryan’s MLE’s aren’t that sunny. Minor League Splits translated his 2008 work to a .212/.273/.370 big league triple-slash, with 2009’s minor league hitting equating to a .225/.308/.383 line. CHONE forecasts a .219/.299/.367 showing in 2010.

In San Diego, Ryan will likely back up Nick Hundley. The 26 year-old Hundley has a similar skill set to Ryan, with some plate discipline and pop but also a hearty whiff rate. In 505 career PA, Hundley holds a 90 wRC+, which means his offense has been 10 percent worse than average once league and park factors are taken into account.

Last year Bengie Molina was the ninth-best fantasy catcher, according to final dollar numbers from the RotoTimes Player Rater. He finished with a $2.62 value, just behind Miguel Olivo ($2.65) and ahead of A.J. Pierzynksi ($2.50). But what should fantasy owners expect from Molina in 2010?

First, let’s start by breaking down Molina by category. Here are his ranks by position in each category, along with his raw numbers in parentheses:

HR – T6th (20)
R – 12th (52)
RBIs – 6th (80)
AVG – 14th (.265)
SB – T 30th (0)

It is pretty clear that Molina derives most of his fantasy value from HR and RBIs, so to continue to be a worthwhile fantasy player, he needs to come close to matching those numbers next season.

Last year, Molina was the cleanup hitter for most of the season for the Giants, as 487 of his 520 PA came in the fourth spot in the order. Now a free agent, Molina is unlikely to return to San Francisco, as the Giants want to open the position for top prospect Buster Posey sooner rather than later, while Molina is looking for a long-term deal.

Molina is not likely to hit cleanup for any other team in the majors, so his RBI totals are going to fall off wherever he ends up, as he bats lower in the order, comes to the plate fewer times and sees fewer runners on base.

But we also have to consider that Molina will be hitting in a new park. Last year he had the following home/road splits:

H: .309/.324/.532
R: .225/.250/.360

The previous two seasons in San Francisco, Molina had been fairly neutral in his home/road splits. Last year’s numbers were in part caused by a big BABIP split. He had a .300 BABIP in home games compared to a .234 mark in road games. For the year he had a .273 BABIP, compared to a lifetime mark of .281 in the category.

Another factor to consider when projecting Molina’s 2010 HR output is that last season he had a 52.5 FB%, by far the highest mark of his career. After five seasons of FB% in the mid to upper 30s, Molina has seen increases the last three seasons, culminating in last year’s mark, which was the third-highest in the majors.

Meanwhile, his HR/FB rate was 8.8 percent, which matched his career average.

Another important thing to consider is that Molina will be 35-years old in 2010. Catchers take more abuse than any other position player and normal aging patterns do not necessarily apply to those who don the tools of ignorance. Among 34-year-old backstops, Molina’s 2009 HR output ranked tied for sixth while his RBI totals ranked eighth. Here’s how the top 10 in both categories fared in their age 34 and age 35 seasons, starting with HR:

Read the rest of this entry »

Ryan Doumit’s battled a slew of injuries since he began his professional career with the Pirates as a second round pick in 1999. He was mentioned in each of Baseball America’s first prospect handbooks until he lost prospect eligibility in 2005.

In 2008 Doumit put it all together and appeared in a career high 116 games and registered 465 at-bats for the Pirates. He’s appeared exclusively as a catcher for the Bucs’ since 2008 began after spending some time at first base and the outfield.

Healthy and playing regularly in 2008 Doumit turned in one of the leagues finer lines from the catcher position. He hit .318/.357/.501 which is good for a .367 wOBA and a nifty 4.0 WAR score.

Encouraged by the results the Pirates locked up the 28 year old to a long term deal that guaranteed Doumit $11.5 million over three years before the 2009 season. The Pirates also hold a unique two year option for $15.5 over the 2012 and 2013 seasons that the club must decide to accept or decline after 2011.

Towards the end of April the injury bug bit Doumit again. This time he fractured his wrist in April after 45 at-bats. He returned from injury on July 19 after a dissapointing minor league rehab stint where he only registered two hits in 24 at-bats across two levels. This continued upon his return to the big leagues (he hit .246/.261/.431 in July and .176/.231/.329 in August over 150 at-bats) and some frustration began to mount for Doumit. After his agent cleared up some misconceptions early in September he took off and finished the season strong with a .346/.424/.481 showing in 81 September at-bats.

Despite his hot finish Doumit finished the year with a .250/.299/.414 line (.306 wOBA) in 75 games and 280 at-bats. The tricky wrist injury didn’t seem to help his production at all but Doumit should be reporting to spring training at full health. Doumit has generated some trade interest this off season and he has a relatively friendly contract but his value is down and the Pirates likely won’t sell on him at a severely discounted rate.

Doumit’s career year in 2008 was aided by a robust .338 BABIP. This helped pad his slash line and especially his batting average. His BABIP plummeted to .271 in 2009 and for his career Doumit has a slightly above average .307 BABIP. Doumit’s 2009 walk rate (6.7%) remained in line with his 2008 rate (5.1%) but he struck out more often in 2009 (17.5%) compared to a lesser 12.8% in 2008. Doumit had struck out in 20+% of his at-bats in each year with the big league club prior to his breakout 2008 so some of the regression we saw in 2009 shouldn’t be seen as stunning.

Although the classification of line drives can be tricky (per scorer in different ballparks) Doumit did see his line drive percentage slip to 17.9% in 2009 compared to 23.4% in 2008. This implies that he wasn’t hitting the ball as hard in 2009 as he did in 2008. For the first time in his career he struggled mightily with fastballs (-0.77 run value per 100 pitches) and breaking stuff (-2.62 run value per 100 pitches against sliders and -0.96 versus curve balls).

With the help of the expected BABIP calculator from The Hardball Times, we can get a clearer picture of Doumit’s expected BABIPs (XBABIP) based on his batted ball profile. Here are the XBABIPS for the past three years for Doumit:

2009 (280 at-bats): .314
2008 (431 at-bats): .314
2007 (251 at-bats): .320

Interestingly enough, Doumit’s XBABIPS for 2008 and 2009 are exactly the same despite the very different line drive percentages. If we apply the XBABIPS to each of Doumit’s slash stats over the past three seasons we end up with these revised triple slashes assuming that all hits added or subtracted were singles:

2009 (280 at-bats): .293/.342/.457
2008 (431 at-bats): .294/.333/.477
2007 (251 at-bats): .262/.329/.460

Interesting. It’s evident that Doumit underperformed in 2009 (and yes the injury likely played a role) but he over performed in 2008. The abnormally high BABIP helped him a lot in 2008 and with some regression over the past three seasons we get a better idea of where Doumit’s true skill set stands.

Doumit is entering his age 29 season and it appears that he will report to spring training healthy. Doumit has been anything but durable and healthy over his career but freak injuries like his wrist injury in 2009 could happen to any player.

I’d project Doumit to hit for a solid batting average and he’s going to get on base at an above average clip and also slug at an above average rate. The Bill James 2010 projection of .285/.341/.471 with 15 home runs seems very accurate. If Doumit stays on the field you could expect closer to 20 long balls.

Doumit is coming off of a down year and you’ll need to closely monitor his health but the systems are pointing at him to be a top ten catching option next season. He’s going to slip in drafts but don’t wait too long to take him. Gamble a little earlier around rounds six through nine. He has the potential to really be worth it and make a noticeable difference in your fantasy league.

According to ESPN’s Buster Olney, free agent catcher Gregg Zaun signed a one-year, $1.9M pact with the Milwaukee Brewers. The deal includes a $2.25M option for the 2011 season ($250K buyout). Since the Rays offered Zaun (a type B free agent) arbitration, they’ll pick up a supplemental first-rounder.

The switch-hitting Zaun has taken ball four and popped an occasional base hit for 15 years now. The man once dubbed “The Practically Perfect Backup Catcher” will turn 39 years old in April, but he’s coming off of a productive 2009 campaign split between the Orioles and the Rays.

In 296 PA, Zaun posted a .334 wOBA. He continued to take his walks (10.6 BB%, 16.9 Outside-Swing%) and managed a .156 ISO. That might not quicken your pulse, but the average MLB catcher authored a .310 wOBA in 2009, with a .141 ISO.

Much like he did when he joined the O’s last year, Zaun will probably provide a helping hand as a rookie catcher breaks into the big leagues. The Brewers have two catching prospects at the upper levels of the farm system: Jonathan Lucroy and Angel Salome.

A 3rd round pick in the ’07 draft, Lucroy compiled a .267/.380/.418 line at AA Huntsville last season. The 23 year-old likely won’t be a huge power threat at the highest level. But he possesses exceptional strike-zone discipline, having taken a free pass 15.7% of the time at Huntsville in 2009 (his career minor league walk rate is 11.6 percent).

Salome, also 23, spent the ’09 campaign at AAA Nashville. His future is murky if he can’t remain behind the dish, however. Built like Barney Rubble at 5-7 and 200 pounds, Salome is considered a fringy defensive catcher. Baseball America said he “often gets his footwork messed up behind the plate.” If he can’t cut it at catcher, where does he play?

Salome has bashed to the tune of a .316/.364/.483 line in the minors, including a .286/.334/.413 performance at Nashville last year. Salome’s career BABIP on the farm is .354: not exactly what one would expect from a catcher about as tall as Yogi Berra.

Here’s how CHONE projects the Brew Crew’s catching troika in 2010:

Zaun: .228/.323/.353
Lucroy: .247/.335/.379
Salome: .270/.321/.408

CHONE sees Zaun’s numbers regressing to a wOBA around .303. Bill James gives us a .316 projection, and the fans (194 people have weighed in on Zaun already? Whoa) call for a .318 wOBA.

Zaun looks like an intelligent, low-cost addition for Milwaukee, if not a terribly exciting fantasy option. Lucroy and Salome both have enough offensive skills to be of interest down the road, though Salome will have to prove he has the defensive chops to remain at the position.

On Tuesday, the Tampa Bay Rays picked up arbitration-eligible catcher Kelly Shoppach from the Cleveland Indians for a PTBNL.

With switch-hitting force Carlos Santana knocking on the big league door and Lou Marson having been snagged from the Phillies at last year’s trade deadline, the Indians are still sitting pretty behind the dish.

Dan Budreika covered Shoppach’s fantasy value a few days back. Shoppach’s lines were aided by exceptionally high BABIP figures from 2006-2008, before coming back down to earth in 2009. He still projects to be a quality backstop, with CHONE calling for a .229/.322/.422 line in 2010. For reference, the average MLB catcher batted .254/.320/.395 in 2009.

The addition of Shoppach in Tampa leaves incumbent Dioner Navarro looking like a prime candidate to change zip codes this offseason. The former Yankee and Dodger had a nice season at the plate in 2008, but he tanked in ’09. What happened, and what can we expect from Navarro going forward?

The switch-hitter’s BABIP has been all over the place over the past three seasons: .253 in 2007, .321 in 2008 and just .233 in 2009. As a guy who doesn’t walk all that much (career 7.6 BB%) or hit for much power (career .111 ISO), Navarro is subject to the caprices of his batting average. His wOBA figures from ’07 to ’09 reflect this: .280 in ’07, .330 in ’08 and .258 in ’09.

Using an expected BABIP calculator from The Hardball Times, we can get a better picture of what Navarro’s BABIP projects to be based on his batted ball profile.

According to the tool, here are Navarro’s XBABIP figures over the past three seasons:

2007: .304
2008: .311
2009: .292

The XBABIP tool portrays Navarro as having a BABIP around the .300 mark over the past three years, compared to an actual figure of .271. His career BABIP is .279. Perhaps Navarro has been somewhat unlucky. But he does possess two traits of a low BABIP hitter: he runs like a catcher (career 2.5 Speed Score-the MLB avg. is around five) and he pops the ball up a lot (career 13 infield/fly ball percentage). In fact, Navarro’s IF/FB% has skyrocketed:

2007: 10.5%
2008: 14%
2009: 18%

Another negative trend for Navarro is his plate discipline. He walked in over 10 percent of his PA between the Dodgers and Rays in 2005 and 2006, but has progressively become more of a hacker:

Navi drew ball four 7.8% of the time in ’07, 7.4% in ’08 and just 4.6% in ’08. Not surprisingly, his outside swing percentage spiked this past year. He went fishin’ out of the strike zone 28.4% of the time, compared to the 25% MLB average and Navarro’s career 23.4% mark.

Clearly, Navarro was a mess in the batter’s box in 2009. It’s reasonable to expect his BABIP to bounce back up next year, though a number in the .270’s might be more reasonable than the .300 that the XBABIP tool suggests. Bill James projects a .254/.315/.367 line in 2010. CHONE gives a similar .254/.312/.377 triple-slash.

Twenty-six in February, the arbitration-eligible Navarro is a good bet to be traded or non-tendered in the near future. If he lands in a spot where playing time is plentiful, he’s going to have to rediscover his strike-zone judgment to be of use to his new employers and fantasy owners alike.

The Mets made a couple of minor moves yesterday, signing Alex Cora and Chris Coste to deals.

As of now, Cora will be the backup middle infielder for the Mets. When Jose Reyes went out with a leg injury, Cora stepped in and ended up playing 82 games for New York last year. In his 308 plate appearance, Cora hit .251/.320/.310 and only scored 31 runs. He stole 8 bases in 11 tries, adding in a single homer and 18 RBI. Cora swings at less than 40% of the pitches he sees, but has an astounding 93.7% contact rate. Simply put, when the man swings, he puts a bat on the ball.

By signing Cora, the Mets are giving themselves an option if they can find a taker for Luis Castillo. Cora would likely step in and start at second base if Castillo is gone, but his fantasy value is minimal, even in deep mixed and NL-only leagues. He isn’t much of a hitter, and won’t contribute much (if anything) to your fantasy squad. Stay far away from Cora, even if he ends up starting.

Coste will likely fight for the backup catcher role with Omir Santos, who is already on the Mets roster. Coste last played for Houston in 2009, but spent the first part of the year with the Phillies. Coste hit .224/.301/.317 with 2 homers in 230 plate appearances last season. The lack of homers from Coste was a surprise, as his previous career low was 5 (in 137 PA’s), and is reflected in his 3.4% HR/FB%. This is likely to rise a bit, but playing in Citi Field won’t help anything.

The Mets are looking at Bengie Molina to fill their starting catcher role, but may stay away from him if the Giants offer him arbitration. Regardless, the Mets will look to bring in another catcher, and may hand the role over to prospect Josh Thole if it comes to it. However, Coste is a great guy to have on a major league roster because he smacks lefties around (.294/.345/.476 with 9 homers in 254 career PA). While he isn’t someone you draft as-is, if the Mets end up handing Coste the starting gig he may be worth a late draft pick in deep leagues if you have room to carry two catchers on your roster, allowing you to play him against southpaws.

Both of the moves the Mets made don’t have a great fantasy impact, but it does show their intentions for the rest of the offseason. And that, my friends, could have quite the impact on your roster.

Catcher A.J. Pierzynski will enter his free agent walk year in 2010 as one of the Top 10 catchers in fantasy baseball. The soon-to-be 33-year-old backstop had a solid offensive season in ’09 by hitting .300/.331/.425 in 504 at-bats. One of the nice things about Pierzynski is his reliability, which is something you do not often get from catchers in fantasy baseball. He’s appeared in 130+ games in seven of the last eight seasons and he’s hit at least 11 homers in each season during that time frame, save for 2002 when he managed just six. He also made contact 8% more often than the league average last season.

On the negative side of Pierzynski, he does not drive in many runs with fewer than 70 RBIs in each of the past five seasons, bottoming out at just 49 in ’09. As well, he won’t help you if your league rewards players for walks (24 in ’09) or on-base percentage (He’s been below .320 in two of the past three seasons).

The biggest threat to Pierzynski is not injury; it is Tyler Flowers. The youngster is one of the club’s top prospects and he just happens to be a catcher. Like Pierzynski, Flowers is an offensive-minded catcher, who hit .286/.364/.438 in 105 triple-A at-bats before receiving a cup of coffee in the Majors with 16 big-league at-bats. Earlier in the season, Flowers hit .302/.445/.548 in 248 at-bats. His 18.7% walk rate and .246 ISO were encouraging numbers and neither was out of line with what he’s produced in the past. Flowers, who was obtained from Atlanta in the Javier Vazquez deal, needs to trim his strikeout rates (30.6% in double-A) if he’s going to hit for average in the Majors.

Is probably safe to assume Pierzynski will be gone from Chicago in 2011, if he wants a guaranteed full-time job. Flowers is one of those prospects that you make room for… surely even Kenny Williams can realize that. For 2010, Pierzynski should continue to gain plenty of playing time with Cole Armstrong as the only other catcher currently on the 40-man roster. Flowers should see significant time behind the dish in triple-A unless Pierzynski is injured or the White Sox tank and the veteran is flipped at the trading deadline.

It’s an interesting situation in Chicago because Pierzynski should remain a solid fantasy player in 2010, while Flowers is one of best fantasy catching prospects in the game. If you have a keeper league squad, snap him up for 2011. If you’re looking for a solid, reliable offensive catcher for 2010 in regular leagues, and don’t want to waste a premium pick on a catcher, consider Pierzynski.

One year after capturing the N.L. Central division crown by a sizeable margin, the Chicago Cubs limped to a deflating 83-78 mark in 2009. There were a number of reasons for the downturn, outside of the usual hocus-pocus about goats and an overeager fan with questionable taste in lime green turtlenecks.

Aramis Ramirez missed considerable time with a shoulder injury. Milton Bradley left his power stroke at the airport baggage claim. Alfonso Soriano turned in a sub-replacement-level campaign.

Another oft-cited reason for Chicago’s mild performance was the “sophomore slump” of catcher Geovany Soto. Geo crushed pitchers in 2008 for a .371 wOBA, displaying secondary skills that most backstops could only dream of.

But in 2009, the injury-wracked Soto posted a .310 wOBA. His bat declined by nearly two and a half wins: Soto compiled +17.1 Park-Adjusted Batting Runs in ’08, but he declined to -7.7 Batting Runs in ’09. Slowed by shoulder and oblique problems, Geovany lost playing time to Koyie Hill down the stretch. What gives? Was Soto a flash in the pan?

The answer would appear to be a resounding “no.”

Soto drew walks in 11.2% of his PA in 2008, while offering at 20.1% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (25% MLB average). In 2009, he walked 13.1%, while showing even more restraint on out-of-the-zone offerings (17.8 O-Swing%).

Geo’s K rate was largely unchanged. He punched out 24.5% in ’08, and 23.3% in ’09. Soto actually did a better job of making contact this past season. The soon-to-be 27 year-old put the bat on the ball 83.4% of the time on pitches within the zone in 2008. In ’09, his Z-Contact% climbed to 87.3% (87.8% MLB average).

Granted, Soto didn’t hit for as much power in 2009. But how many catchers not named “Piazza” can hold a near-.220 ISO year in and year out? We should have expected that number to regress in 2009. And it’s not like Soto was a weakling this past year: he had a .163 ISO.

So, Soto posted a higher walk rate, swung at fewer pitches off the plate, punched out less often, made more contact on in-zone pitches and still displayed plenty of pop for the position that he plays. How is it that his line tumbled so badly?

In 2008, Geovany had a .337 BABIP. In ’09, his BABIP fell off a cliff, down to .251.

As a catcher who runs like he has a piano strapped to his shoulders (2.0 career Speed Score, compared to the 5.0 MLB average), Soto won’t beat out many close plays at first. But his career minor league BABIP was .359, and his career BABIP in the majors is .310.

We can use Derek Carty’s Expected BABIP tool to get a better idea of Soto’s BABIP range, based upon his rate of HR’s, K’s, SB’s, line drives, fly balls, pop ups and groundballs.

Carty’s tool is based upon the excellent research of Peter Bendix and Chris Dutton. Their work found a positive relationship between BABIP and batter’s eye (BB/K rate), line drive percentage, Speed Score and P/PA. Dutton and Bendix’s XBABIP model does the best job of predicting future BABIP.

Based on his 2008 numbers, Soto’s XBABIP was .316, compared to his actual .337 mark. In 2009, Geovany’s XBABIP was .314. Remember, his actual BABIP was .251, a staggering 63 points lower. Even assuming all additional hits were singles, Soto’s line would have been .281/.384/.444 instead of his actual .218/.321/.381 triple-slash.

Soto had some extra bounces go his way in ’08, and then appeared to have terrible luck on balls put in play in 2009. His core skills, however, scarcely changed. His XBABIP numbers in 2008 and 2009 were nearly identical, and match up quite nicely with his career .310 BABIP.

Bill James’ projections peg Geo for a .273/.361/.469 line in 2010, good for a .362 wOBA. Sean Smith just released his CHONE 2010 projections, and he has Soto at .265/.354/.456. That equates to a wOBA around .355.

For reference, only six catchers with 300+ PA posted a wOBA better than .350 in 2009. The average wOBA at the position was .310.

Don’t forget Soto’s name on draft day. Some may have soured on him, but the Cubs backstop looks like a prime bounce-back candidate.