Archive for Catchers

Erik Kratz, Pirates (Owned in 0% of Yahoo leagues)

With Ryan Doumit looking lost behind the plate and the since-demoted Jason Jaramillo trotting down the first base line less often than Jalapeno Hannah, the Pirates decided to call up the 30-year-old Kratz.

A monster of a man at 6-foot-4 and 255 pounds, Kratz is a former 29th-round pick from the Toronto Blue Jays’ organization who latched on with the Pirates as a minor league free agent prior to the 2009 season. The right-handed hitter posted a .273/.337/.470 line in 353 Triple-A PA last season, and he batted .296/.396/.550 in 225 trips to the plate in 2010 before getting the big league promotion.

It’s hard to say how much the organizational soldier will play, but he’s expected to garner more starts than Jaramillo did and caddy for the switch-hitting Doumit against lefties. During his career, Doumit has a .342 wOBA as a lefty versus RHP and a .309 wOBA against left-handers as a RHB. Using the method outlined here for estimating platoon skill, I get a .346 estimated wOBA for Doumit vs. RHP and a .322 estimated wOBA against lefties. Can Kratz match that? Overall, CHONE projects Kratz as a slightly below-average MLB hitter (.253/.318/.443, roughly a .322 wOBA). Assuming he shows a typical platoon split for a RHB (better against LHP), Kratz should be a bit of an upgrade over Doumit against lefties.

Depending upon the Pirates’ level of disgust in Doumit’s D, Kratz could get penciled into the lineup more frequently. He’s got some power, and that could make him an option in NL-only leagues.

Drew Stubbs, Reds (34%)

Cincy’s first-round pick in the 2006 draft is easing concerns that his bat won’t play well at the big league level. A 6-4, 205 pound center fielder known for wheels allowing him to cover lots of ground and swipe bases at a high percentage clip (77.1% in the minors), Stubbs never really stand out at the plate as a prospect. He hit a collective .269/.364/.401 in 1,847 plate appearances, with a good eye (11.9 BB%) but little in the way of pop (.132 ISO). Stubbs also whiffed 27.3% of the time, raising questions about his contact ability.

The former Longhorn’s defensive chops figured to make him an acceptable starter even if his offense was below-average, but happily, he’s holding his own with the lumber. In 546 major league PA over the past two years, Stubbs has a .257/.322/.434 line and a .337 wOBA. Sure, he’s coming up empty more than most — his contact rate is 73.4% (81% MLB average) and his K rate is 29.3% — but that hasn’t precluded him from succeeding. Stubbs has walked an acceptable 8.4% of the time, and he’s hitting with the authority that once led Baseball America to claim he possessed “plus raw power.” Stubbs has a .177 ISO in the majors, with 21 homers. He’s also contributing plenty on the base paths. After going 10-for-14 in SB attempts last season, Stubbs has been successful in 18 of 21 tries in 2010.

Given Stubbs’ mild numbers in the minors, both ZiPS (.240/.311/.378 rest-of-season projection) and CHONE (.246/.323/.379) are skeptical that the 25-year-old can keep up the pace. Personally, I think he’s capable of hitting at a level closer to his current mark. He’s not a hacker, he’s tapping into his power potential and he’s taking his home swings in a park that increases HR production by 35 percent for righty batters.

This edition of catcher notes focuses on three young backstops who could help your team now, and in the future.

Carlos Santana | Indians | 64% owned

Santana had huge expectations hoisted on his shoulders when he was called up, and he has exceeded them. Mark my words: Carlos Santana will be the best fantasy catcher for the rest of the year. Seriously, I’d be willing to put money (er, gummy bears) on it. Since he only owned in 64% of leagues, it’s worth your time to check the waiver wire and add him if he’s available.

Matt Wieters | Orioles | 66% owned

One of the most hyped catchers on draft day has been a major disappointment, but there is still hope. In the past 30 days, Wieters has hit .304 while driving in 11 runs. Keep in mind, during the past 30 days, Wieters has missed time due to injury and the All-Star break, so his sample size is small. Still, you can color me optimistic. He has a great offensive pedigree, and when he returns to the bigs when his DL stint is up at the end of the month, I expect great things. I’ve seen him dropped in some leagues (even a keeper league), so he could be a good buy-low guy if you are looking to build for the future.

Jonathan Lucroy | Brewers | 1% owned

The Brewers “catcher of the future,” Lucroy has hit well in his first big league season. Lucroy wasn’t supposed to see a lot of time in the majors this year, but Gregg Zaun’s injury opened up playing time for the youngster. Marc Hulet rated Lucroy as the Brewers 5th best prospect coming into the year, noting his offensive reputation. Lucroy is hitting .280/.316/.376 right now, so he isn’t a good value in OBP or OPS leagues, but could deserve a pickup in keeper and NL-only leagues. He won’t play every day, but he plays enough to justify a roster spot.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.

A sour season for Matt Wieters owners got even more frustrating on Friday, as the switch-hitting would-be savior was placed on the DL (retroactive to July 10th) with a strained right hamstring. Wieters has been battling the bad hammy since tripping while rounding second base during a July 9th game against the Texas Rangers.

The fifth overall pick in the ’07 draft laid waste to minor league pitching in 2008 (a combined .355/.454/.600 between High-A and Double-A) and 2009 (.305/.387/.504 in Triple-A) before the O’s called him up last May. Wieters turned in a very impressive rookie season — while not reaching the hyperbolic expectations set by some, he hit .288/.340/.412 with a .331 wOBA in 385 plate appearances. League-average offense from 23-year-old backstop in the AL East is nothing to scoff at.

Wieters was supposed to take several steps forward in 2010, with both ZiPS (.282/.346/.427, .342 wOBA) and CHONE (.289/.355/.460, .356 wOBA) predicting improvement at the plate. Instead, the former Georgia Tech star has stung those who used a prime draft pick on him — Wieters holds a sluggish .245/.315/.357 line in 298 PA, with a .298 wOBA.

While Baseball America lauded the 6-5, 230 pound Wieters’ 30-homer potential, that pop has not yet been on display in the majors. He had a .124 ISO last season, and that mark has fallen slightly in 2010, to .112. For comparison, ZiPS projected a .145 ISO and CHONE had a .171 ISO.

Part of the problem is an increase in ground balls hit. Wieters hit grounders 41.9% in 2009, and that ground ball rate has climbed to 46.4% this year. It also doesn’t help that the quality of pitches that he’s swinging at has declined. Here are Wieters’ swing rates on pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (O-Swing) and within the zone (Z-Swing) in 2009 and 2010. I also included Wieters’ O-Swing and Z-Swing rates as a proportion of the MLB average:

Wieters is chasing a slightly higher percentage of pitches thrown off the plate (relative to the MLB average), but the big change is his swing rate on pitches over the plate. He’s taking more offerings thrown within the zone, which has contributed to his getting behind in the count more often. Wieters’ first pitch strike percentage was 53 last season, but it has climbed to 60.7% in 2010 (58-59% MLB average). According to StatCorner, Wieters took a pitch for a strike 29.5% of the time in ’09. This year, he’s taking a pitch for a strike 33.8% (31% MLB average).

Our Pitch Type Run Values suggest that Wieters is struggling on a per-pitch basis against fastballs — his runs/100 value against the heat is -0.49 this season, compared to +0.71 in 2009. According to Pitch F/X data from TexasLeaguers.com, Wieters swung at 45.8% of fastballs seen in ’09, and 41.3% in 2010. When Wieters got a fastball on the first pitch of an at-bat in 2009, his strike percentage was 54.4. This season, he’s got a 62.2 strike% when a pitcher throws him a fastball to begin an AB. It seems as though he’s having a hard time distinguishing balls from strikes against the gas.

Despite his struggles, Wieters is still one of the most valuable properties in the game. ZiPS has a .274/.343/.407 rest-of-season projection for him, and CHONE predicts a .276/.341/.431 line. Even if the power doesn’t manifest when he returns, Wieters isn’t a sub-.250 hitter. His .317 expected BABIP is 26 points higher than his actual .291 BABIP.

I can’t stress this enough — please, please do not trade this guy for fifty cents on the dollar right now. That goes ten-fold for keeper leagues — you’ll be kicking yourself later if you let the aggravation caused by Wieters’ tepid 2010 overshadow his superb track record and prospect pedigree.

A little later in the day than you’re used to, but it will be worth the wait. I promise.

My Hero
Carlos Santana

That’s right. Santana has been tremendous, and while our sample size is small, I have no worries about his ability to keep it up. I’d like the K-rate to drop a couple percent, but I suppose we can live for only league average in one category. Personally, I am going to love paring him with Pujols in my keeper league.

Big Three
Joe Mauer
Victor Martinez
Brian McCann

Victor’s injury hampers his value, so he slides to number three.

Power. So Much Power
Miguel Olivo
Mike Napoli
John Buck

I’ve given up on trying to predict a batting average drop for John Buck. He had a BABIP below .300 in June, yet hit .270. Looks like he’s for real, and I’m buying in.

Happy to Have
Kurt Suzuki
Jorge Posada
Miguel Montero
Buster Posey
Geovany Soto

Montero may have a small sample, but it’s a great one. He’s hitting over 30% line drives, and has cut his K-rate while raising his BB-rate. He’s not going to hit .394 all year (.441 BABIP), but his line will be better than it was last year.

I am Jack’s Catcher
Ryan Doumit
Matt Wieters
John Jaso
Rod Barajas
Ivan Rodriguez
Ronny Paulino

Jack isn’t very picky when it comes to his catchers. Jaso was getting calls to move up, but as our sample grew we learned more and more, and my expectations didn’t really change.

The Rest of ‘Em
Bengie Molina
Russell Martin
Carlos Ruiz
Nick Hundley
Yadier Molina
Jason Kendall
A.J. Pierzynski

Bengie’s arrival in Texas should help his numbers a bit, so don’t be afraid to give him a shot. I considered Jason Castro, but I don’t see him doing much this year. He’s a better option in NL-only keeper leagues, but that’s the only place I’d give him a shot.

Trading season is just waiting to explode, and the Rangers made the first strike yesterday by acquiring Bengie Molina. The deal doesn’t have much impact in the grand scheme of things, but in the world of fantasy baseball it does give the elder Molina brother a little bit more value.

Obviously, he’s going from one extreme to the other in terms of run environment. The Giants as a team have a .320 wOBA and play in a park that’s been pretty neutral over the last three seasons offensively (using ESPN’s park factors), while the Rangers boast a .343 wOBA while playing a park that’s inflated offense about 12.4% over that same three year time period. That alone is going to help his fantasy offensive output, which currently stands at .257-3-17.

After three straight seasons of 80+ RBI, fantasy gold for a catcher, (R) ZiPS sees just 36 more steaks with a .265 AVG coming Molina’s way. Believe it or not, that’s the sixth highest predicted RBI total for a catcher by the system, behind the usual cast of characters (Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez, Brian McCann, Geovany Soto, Kurt Suzuki), and ahead of guys like Jorge Posada and Matt Wieters and Yadier Molina. If nothing else, at least the spreadsheets are on Bengie’s side.

I wouldn’t recommend relying on Molina as your top backstop (unless you’re in an exceptionally deep league, or something) just because the guy’s less that three weeks away from his 36th birthday and has one foot in the batter’s box and one in the glue factory. If you’re dealing with an injury (say, to Martinez), then Bengie will help you keep your head above water for the time being. He’s not a top fantasy backstop, but there are worse emergency options.

As if the Red Sox didn’t have enough injury issues with Josh Beckett, Dustin Pedroia, and basically their entire outfield on the disabled list, they lost Victor Martinez to a fractured thumb over the weekend. A top tier fantasy catcher is impossible to replace, so hopefully he’ll be back after the required 15 days and all you V-Mart owners won’t have to suffer too long.

In the meantime, here’s a few backstops you can find on the waiver wire to help keep your head above water, starting with Martinez’s replacement…

Jason Varitek | Red Sox | 6% owned

Varitek has a very strange stat line this season. He has only 23 hits in 98 PA (.258 AVG), but he’s got seven homers and a .303 ISO. Those seven bombs come with only 14 RBI too. Yeah, it’s just small sample size noise, but it’s still kinda funny. (R) ZiPS projects a .227 AVG with a .178 ISO, and realistically that’s about the best you can hope for out of Varitek for the next two weeks or so.

Ronny Paulino | Marlins | 16%

Very quietly, Paulino has posted a respectable .343 wOBA this season, though he’s hit .322/.373/.435 in his last 126 plate appearances. He’s an absolute horse behind the dish, perhaps to the point that you have to worry about him turning into a pumpkin in the second half. Paulino’s started the team’s last 19 (!!!) games, though he did have the benefit of three off days during that stretch. (R) ZiPS sees a regression back to .274/.332/.397 the rest of the way, but at least he won’t kill you in AVG during V-Mart’s absence.

John Jaso | Rays | 6%

Tampa has been platooning Jaso with Kelly Shoppach ever since they decided to send Dioner Navarro to the minors, and six of Tampa’s next seven games come against righthanded pitchers. Jaso is a must own in OBP leagues (.398 OBP), but his .271 AVG and 25 RBI still have value elsewhere. I’m a sucker for guys who walk more than they strikeout, though (R) ZiPS seems him falling to .269/.354/.368 the rest of the way.

Ownership rates based on Yahoo! leagues.

You comment, and I listen. Seriously, your input is very important. I’m only one person with one vantage point, and challenging my rankings makes me revisit them and rethink my evaluations. We’re going to continue on without including any stats, so without further ado…

The Big Three
Victor Martinez
Joe Mauer
Brian McCann

Victor holds on to the number one spot, and that shouldn’t change (barring injury). McCann continues to try remedies for his vision, so we may see his batting eye improve sometime soon.

Happy To Have
Jorge Posada
Mike Napoli
Kurt Suzuki
Miguel Olivo

Want power without completely killing your batting average? You’re going to have to pay for it. Olivo will always have to look over his shoulder, but I think the Rockies will give him the benefit of the doubt and stick with him as long as they possibly can.

The Prospects
Carlos Santana
Buster Posey

I am loving Santana going forward. While our sample is small, he is showing signs of being worth all of the hype. And more. Posey may not show much power right away, but he should develop more as his career progresses.

I am Jack’s Catcher
Ryan Doumit
Miguel Montero
Geovany Soto
Matt Wieters
John Jaso

I think Sweet Lou just likes to screw with fantasy owners. Jaso seems to be the real deal, while Montero and Doumit could be higher if I trusted them to stay healthy.

Buckaroos
Russell Martin
John Buck
Ivan Rodriguez
Rod Barajas
Carlos Ruiz
Ronny Paulino
Nick Hundley

Martin drops way down, as does Ruiz. Pudge is back and started hitting right away, and he is fitting in nicely with the Nationals. Hundley continues to impress me, and his added playing time has been nice.

The Rest of ‘Em
Bengie Molina
Yadier Molina
Chris Iannetta
Jason Kendall

I’ll always love Iannetta, and am looking forward to someone taking him off the Rockies hands in the offseason (if not the trade deadline).

Houston is trying to fix their problem. [/ lame]

The Astros shook up a bit of their roster earlier today, designating three mediocre at best players for assignment and replacing them with younger players that at the very lost offer hope. One of those players is catcher Jason Castro, the team’s consensus top prospect and the 10th overall pick in the 2008 draft.

Usually teams will look for stars when they’re picking in the top ten, but the general belief is that the Astros reached a bit and instead landed themselves a rock solid, every day backstop. There’s nothing wrong with that, productive every day catchers are damn valuable players, but when a (theoretically) rebuilding team has a pick that high, you’d like to see shoot for the moon a little more. But I digress.

As predicted, Castro has climbed the minor league ladder very quickly, shooting from High-A to Double-A in 2009 before starting this season in Triple-A. His combined batting line last year sat at .300/.380/.446, and he’s followed that up with a .265/.365/.355 (.301 BABIP) effort in 244 plate appearances this year. The data at MinorLeagueSplits.com suggests that Castro has been beating the ball into the ground with season (48.6 GB%, 17.9 LD%, 33.5 FB%), which certainly helps explain the sub-.100 ISO. Last year those totals were 37.9%, 17.3%, 44.5%, respectively.

CHONE projects a .249/.313/.351 batting line 382 plate appearances this year, which isn’t terrible for a rookie catcher. Castro’s a lefty batter that will be playing in a park better known for aiding righthanders, and there’s certainly no help to be found in the lineup around him (.276 team wOBA). The Astros have announced that it’s his job on a full-time basis, and playing time certainty counts for something. I wouldn’t expect Castro to drastically outproduce his CHONE projection, so the majority of his value comes in NL-only or deeper mixed leagues.

If you’re looking for a young and productive catcher, grab Carlos Santana if he’s still available in your league (owned in 45% of Yahoo! leagues). Dude’s got five doubles, two homers, four singles, seven walks, and three strikeouts in his nine games so far. Hard to argue with that. John Jaso (7% owned) is still hitting at a .291/.413/.425 clip and has been getting playing time at DH recently, so he’s another option as well. I’d target either before Castro, even in keeper leagues.

Another summer weekend, and another couple of players for your pleasure. Enjoy!

Miguel Montero, Arizona (45%)
If you’ve been reading these Waiver Wire pieces, you know we usually talk about players owned in fewer leagues than Montero. In fact, we’ve even started specializing in single-digit players, to the consternation of some shallow-league owners. Well, here’s a player that, though he’s owned in a fair amount of leagues, should be owned in at least twice as many leagues as he is. Montero put up 670+ plate appearances from 2008 to 2009, and in those PAs, he showed a strikeout rate right at 20%, an ISO above .180, and a strong batting average for a catcher. Put those pieces together and he’s easily a top-twelve catcher and should be owned in all mixed leagues. Now that he’s due back this weekend and is practically begging his team to activate him, it’s time to make sure he’s not on the wire in your league.

David Hernandez, Baltimore (6%)
Don’t fall over yourself to pick up the latest Oriole to accrue a save – it doesn’t seem that others are either. They might have heard that Alfredo Simon was called Shutdown Sauce and that Hernandez couldn’t overcome a nickname like that. There’s even the forgotten footnote Michael Gonzalez rattling around in that bullpen too. Here’s the thing, though. There’s a new sherriff in town – “interim” manager Juan Samuel – and he just recently reported that Gonzalez only hit the mid-80s in his rehab start. Simon’s K/9 in the minor leagues was a mediocre 7.4, so he’s not an obvious candidate for the role. Of course, he racked up those numbers as a starter, and could be expected to bump them up in a short relief role, but still. He was more of a fill-in guy than a person being groomed for the role. So finally we get to Hernandez, who racked up a save and has been pushed to the bullpen by the better prospects coming up behind him. With his gaudy strikeout rates in the minors (10.4 K/9), and his inability to translate those rates to the majors (6.02 K/9 career), Hernandez was a conundrum wrapped in an enigma. He’s certainly a fly ball pitcher in the wrong park (29.2% groundball rate career), and he’s really not showing it as a starter. Here’s thinking that he can recover that nice strikeout rate in short stints and actually step forward as the closer of the future. If Gonzalez truly is only hitting the mid-80s in his rehab, it wouldn’t surprise anyone to hear surgery in his future. Again.

After a short hiatus, here are your catcher rankings. I’m going to experiment with not including any numbers next to the players names, for various reasons. If you really feel like you need them, let me know in the comments.

The Big Three
Victor Martinez
Joe Mauer
Brian McCann

Things change, people. I never thought Mauer would show the power like he did last year, but he has fallen way back. Martinez will give you a more balanced attack, so he gets the number one spot.

Happy to Have
Jorge Posada
Geovany Soto
Kurt Suzuki
Ryan Doumit
Mike Napoli

Even though Jorge is fresh off a DL stint, I had to give him the number four slot. Kendry Morales getting hurt was a godsend for Napoli. He won’t have to play behind the plate all of the time, and his bat sticks in the lineup. The Angels may look to trade for a first baseman, but until then, Napoli has great value.

I am Jack’s Catcher
Matt Wieters
Russell Martin
Miguel Olivo
Yadier Molina

What’s up, Wieters?

Buckaroos
Carlos Ruiz
John Buck
Buster Posey
Bengie Molina
Rod Barajas
Miguel Montero

Miguel Montero should be back soon, so keep an eye on him. He was in my top-10 before he got injured, and he’s only this low because he’s not back yet and knee injuries scare me when it comes to catchers.

The Prospect
Carlos Santana

Santana should be up within the week.

The Rest of ‘Em
Ronny Paulino
Ivan Rodriguez
Chris Snyder
Chris Iannetta
A.J. Pierzynski
Jeff Clement
Nick Hundley

I still have a little hope left for Clement. Just a little. I’ve heard the name Ryan Hanigan thrown around a lot in the comments, but he just doesn’t get enough AB’s to justify a spot. Hundley gets slightly more playing time, and the two are probably interchangeable.