Good morning! Sorry I missed you all this weekend, so let’s get caught up on what went down. I won’t cover every save this weekend, but just the situations worth monitoring moving forward since there were a lot of saves.
Today the San Diego Padres dealt closer Fernando Rodney to the Miami Marlins for farmhand Chris Paddack — the 17th best prospect in the Marlins’ system according to MLB Pipeline. Entering today, Paddack was 2-0 in six starts with a 0.95 ERA (1.55 FIP) and a 46.9% K-BB% in 28.1 IP for the Greensboro Grasshoppers of the South Atlantic League. For the Padres, that means Ryan Buchter and Brandon Maurer will likely battle it out for ninth-inning duties. Word on the street suggests that Ryan Buchter will get the first crack at the closer role, but General Manager A.J. Preller indicated via conference call that he will defer to manager Andy Green to formally name a replacement for Rodney.
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• As some brilliant readers pointed out last night, we likely had the grid wrong for Tampa Bay and boy was that poor timing as Alex Colome was placed on the DL with biceps tendinitis. According to Marc Topkin “the DL move is retroactive to June 19, and Colome said he hopes to be ready to pitch again when eligible on Monday.” That might be a bit optimistic but it doesn’t look like Colome’s stay on the DL will be particularly lengthy. As the readers noted, Erasmo Ramirez has struggled so expect Xavier Cedeno to get the first look at saves but this could be a committee of sorts with Danny Farquhar and Matt Andriese in the mix as well.
• One closer gets hurt and another is on the mend. We gave a quick update on Jonathan Papelbon last night and he said he felt great after his outing last night, likely only needing one more simulated game before being ready to go. I would feel free to activate Papelbon as he’s likely to pitch this weekend for Washington and should return to his familiar role in the ninth.
• Welp, it looks like Trevor Rosenthal has officially lost his job as closer. As for the possible replacements, Kevin Siegrist, Seung-hwan Oh and Jonathan Broxton have all been named. However, Derrick Goold suggests that Oh was warming up for the possible save last night and that he will get the “first crack” at the ninth. Accordingly, we have placed Oh as the closer in the grid below with Siegrist and Broxton behind him. I’ve added Rosenthal to the injured column, not that he’s injured but to keep him on our minds. I expect he’ll pitch in very low-leverage innings (he threw a scoreless inning allowing two hits and one strikeout down four runs in the ninth today) and if he’s able to turn it around it’s possible that he could reclaim the ninth inning. That would also imply that Rosie is pitching well, something he hasn’t really done at all this year with a 7.88 BB/9 and ERA estimators above four.
As far as relievers are considered – it doesn’t get much better than Oh this year as he’s been the 5th most valuable reliever, has a top 15 strikeout rate, a walk rate just outside the top 20 and a K%-BB% of 29.5%, 7th best in the league. Whether or not Oh gets the majority of save chances in Rosenthal’s absence, he’s worth getting excited about and using a claim on immediately.
Things have been tough for Trevor Rosenthal lately, to put it nicely. Tonight’s game certainly did not help the Cardinals confidence in him, as he blew a two-run lead in the 9th. Rosenthal didn’t retire a batter after giving up a lead-off double, a walk, and then a walk-off three run homer by Adam Lind to seal the deal. Rosenthal has blown four of his last seven opportunities, and has not thrown a clean full inning since June 9th. His ERA is now up to 5.63 after this latest appearance. For more on Rosenthal’s struggles, check out this article by Paul Swydan. Regarding the current situation in St. Louis, nothing has been said whether or not he will lose the closer role just yet, but if I owned him, I would be prepared for a change coming up soon.
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With A.J. Ramos unavailable to the Marlins following appearances in four of the last five days, David Phelps took the bump for Don Mattingly in the home half of the final frame against the Cubs. Phelps worked around a pair of hits in the ninth, fanned two and induced a flyout on 24 pitches (14 strikes) to seal the deal for Miami. That’s the third save on the year for the 29-year-old right-hander and the fourth in his career. For the better part of Phelps’ career he took the hill as a starter, but the Marlins have exclusively called on him out of the bullpen this season. The result? Career marks in ERA (2.48), FIP (2.37), K-BB% (22.6%), SwStr% (9.6%), a spike in velocity on each of his offerings and a lot less hard contact allowed (20.6% Hard% vs. career 32.2% Hard%) entering this evening’s effort. Rumblings around the interwebs indicate the Marlins could be buyers around the trade deadline considering their relative success without Dee Gordon, but if by chance they turn into sellers, David Phelps could be an interesting candidate for those seeking bullpen depth.
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Since it’s a slow day on the mound for relievers, here’s a brief rumor roundup:
• We mentioned Fernando Rodney’s success earlier today and it seems like his performance is “not going unnoticed by contenders” according to Peter Gammons. The Padres have about three trade pieces – Wil Myers, Drew Pomeranz and Fernando Rodney. It’s unlikely they trade the first two and maybe increasingly likely that Rodney goes. If Rodney is moved, expect breakout lefty Ryan Buchter to replace him in the ninth. Although 29 years old, Buchter has a history of striking out batters with iffy control in the minors and so far this year he’s supporting a 1.74/2.51/3.49 ERA/FIP/xFIP pitching line with a fantastic 37% strikeout rate and a walk rate of 10.7% which is above the league average of 8.2%.
Sorry for a belated Bullpen Report as one forgot to click the submit button last night. Anywho, onto the updates…
• The Twins closing situation has largely been a bit of a circus but current closer Brandon Kintzler came in for a four out save last night and nailed down his second save of the season. He also allowed a solo shot but considering how poorly Kevin Jepsen and co. have been, that goes down as a fairly clean save in Minnesota. Fernando Abad didn’t enter the game and he has struggled of late allowing three earned runs on Saturday after allowing a home run on Thursday as well. He’s still a high leverage lefty but is firmly behind Kintzler at the moment. Kevin Jepsen blew the lead on Saturday but it was the first runs he allowed in his last five appearances and if Kintzler were to struggle, Jepsen could re-enter the mix along with Michael Tonkin who has been successful this year with a 3.09/3.47/3.78 ERA/FIP/xFIP line. Trevor May is still recovering from a sore back and had his bullpen session moved to Tuesday. Read the rest of this entry »
Reports today indicate that Twins’ closer Glen Perkins will likely miss the remainder of the 2016 season. In addition to experiencing rotator cuff issues, the former All-Star will need to go under the knife to repair a torn labrum. After numerous attempts to improve the condition via a throwing program, the southpaw finally shut it down and sought multiple medical opinions on the severity of the injury. Brandon Kintzler and Fernando Abad figure to share the closing duties in Minnesota with Kevin Jepsen being recently removed from the position. Abad features the better peripherals (0.79 ERA/1.99 FIP) and strikeout rates (18.8% K-BB%) at this time, so if you’re deciding between the two, he’s the one I’d be adding. Edit: Just after typing those very words, Abad surrendered a first-pitch three-run homer to Didi Gregorious in the seventh inning. My opinion hasn’t changed, but leaving the grid as is for the time being.
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I was mistaken yesterday in thinking this version of the Bullpen Report would come out early the next morning. Sorry if this caused any confusion, but this is good news for those night owls who will get the BR earlier than expected. Read the rest of this entry »