The Closer Thoughts for 2022 Drafts Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Strategy Section

• Closer thoughts for 2022 drafts
  • Don’t play the waiver wire for 2 closers
  • ‘Safe’ closers
  • Economics of closers in drafts
  • Paying up for closers
  • Relative market pricing vs. absolute market pricing
  • The exaggerated case of zigging and zagging
  • Spreading your closer picks throughout the draft
  • Market premium

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The Projections & Corner Infield Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Dan Szymborski

Strategy Section

• Projections
  • What goes into creating a projection system?
  • ZiPS
    • How does ZiPS set itself apart from other projections?
    • How does ZiPS handle multi-year projections?
    • How does ZiPS deal with free agents?
    • How does ZiPS handle rookies?
    • How does ZiPS handle the possible NL Designated Hitter for 2022?
    • How does ZiPS handle uncertain items (nature of the ball, run environment, sticky substances, etc.)?
    • How does ZiPS take into account positions [Question asked in mailbag]?
    • What is new for 2022?
  • Projecting playing time – Should projection systems attempt to do this?
    • ZiPS DC
    • FanGraphs Depth Charts

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The Player Pool & Catcher Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Todd Zola

Todd’s Mastersball Projections

• What’s new?
• Assuming a DH in the National League
• Adjusting for the Camden Yards’ new dimensions
• Adjusting for the Blue Jays irregular home park in 2021

Strategy Section

• Player Pool
  • Starting Pitchers
    • Is there more risk at the very top?
    • Is this the year to wait and grab pitchers in the early middle rounds?
  • Closers
    • Where is the value?
    • How many saves do you really need to be competitive?
  • Corner infielders
    • Bargains in the first base position
      • Pass on top talent?
    • The drop in talent at third base
      • How to attack/address the 3B position
  • Middle infielders
    • Do you need to obtain steals from the middle infield position?
    • Setting hotspot values and budgeting for the middle infield
  • Outfielders
    • At what price points should one purchase outfielders?
      • Early, middle, late, or spread them out?
      • The $1 outfielder conundrum
      • The effect of multiple position eligilibity on the OF pool

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The NFBC Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Jenny Butler

First Pitch Arizona mishaps

Strategy Section

• Playing in the NFBC
  • What is the NFBC?
  • How Jenny got into the NFBC and how you can get your start
    • Tools that a first time player should use
  • Differences between home leagues and the NFBC
  • Differences between standalone leagues and leagues with an overall prize
  • The value of multi-positional players in the NFBC
    • Ben Zobrist tribute
  • KDS selection preferences
• Should we pay the market premium for saves and for speed?
• Roster Construction
  • General principles
  • Should you create a “Do Not Draft” list?
• Draft preparation tips
• Incorporating risk into drafting decisions
• Jacob deGrom – What to make of the current Steamer IP projection?
• Power Drafters
  • Should you incorporate a “deGrom share” into your fantasy portfolio?
  • Should you diversify your player selections on your fantasy teams?
• How to find fantasy baseball sleepers

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The Format Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Frank Stampfl

Tout Wars Congratulations

Strategy Section

• Drafting Strategy based on fantasy format
  • Rotisserie leagues vs. Head-to-Head Points leagues vs. Head-to-Head Category leagues
    • One win vs. full category score
  • Waiver wire leagues vs. Draft Champion/Draft & Hold Leagues
  • Roto leagues vs. Best ball leagues
  • Trading leagues vs. non-trading leagues
  • Deeper leagues vs. shallow leagues
  • 1-Catcher leagues vs. 2-Catcher leagues
  • Large vs. small bench size
    • Having IL slots vs. no IL slots
  • Daily lineups vs. weekly lineups
    • How to best use Shohei Ohtani
  • Overall competition vs. standalone leagues

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The Streaming Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Michael Simione

Joes vs. Pros Congratulations

Strategy Section

• Streaming Players
  • Definition of streaming
  • Long-term holding of players streamed
  • Streaming hitters
  • Should you stream players in-season from the very beggining?
    • Should you set aside roster spots in your draft for streaming?
• Streaming Starting Pitchers
  • Advice for first-time players
  • How to determine which starting pitchers to stream
    • What stats to consider?
    • Can you avoid getting “Gombered?”
  • Budgeting FAAB for Streaming
    • How much should you pay per week in FAAB on starting pitcher streamers?
  • How to manage your bench in-season for streamers?
    • How many slots should you allocate?

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The Healing Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Ron Shandler

LABR Congratulations

Strategy Section

• Dealing with the current injury frequency level in baseball
  • Roster construction
  • Risk management
    • Broad Assesment Balance Sheet (BABS)
  • Reasons for injury frequency by team
  • Risk-adjusted pricing vs. managing to a risk budget
  • First round picks
    • Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Ronald Acuna Jr.
• How to think about Binary Risk
  • Jacob deGrom
• Playing fantay against “Power Drafters” who take on more risk
• Is the market still right to draft risky elite starting pitching?
• Is the market overpricing stable closers in early drafts?
• How to value prospects in drafts?
  • Bobby Witt Jr.

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The Understanding Statistics Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Mike Podhorzer

Bar Mitzvah Talk

• Coke & Pepsi

Projections

• Pod Projections
• Manual vs. automated projections
• Where do automated projections fail / blind spots?

In-Season

• At what point in the season should you rely on in-season statistics vs. pre-season projections?
  • Francisco Lindor 2021

Understandings Statistics Section

• Hitting Statistics
  • BA
  • OBP
  • SLG
  • OPS
  • BB%
  • K%
  • HR/FB%
  • Barrel%
• How can you tell if a YOY increase in a statistic is real skill, or if it was a fluke?
• BABIP
• Using Statcast to identify pockets of value / undervalued players
• What in-season statistics should you use when setting waiver wire pickups for hitters?
• Pitching Statistics
  • ERA
  • WHIP
  • Swing Strike %
• How to adjust for a potential universal DH in 2022?
• Strand Rate (LOB%)
• ERA Estimators
  • FIP vs. xFIP vs. SIERA
    • Descriptive vs. Predictive
• What in-season statistics should you use when setting waiver wire pickups for pitchers?
  • K% is superior to K/9
  • K-BB% or K% – Which is more valuable to track in-season?
• What statistics should one track to tout relievers for saves in 2022?
• Scouting for saves in 2022
• Other important statistics to track
  • Plate discipline metrics
    • O-Swing%, Z-Swing%, O-Contact%, Z-Contact%, etc.

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The latest episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Jeremy Hefner, New York Mets

Interview

• Highlight of career
• Game preparation
  • Preparing players for the mental & physical aspects of the game
  • Is game planning more about having players pitch to their strengths, or about exploiting weaknesses of your opponents ?
  • In-game management
    • 3rd time through the order
  • Use of an “opener”
  • How “first-in” and “next-in” pitchers coming out of the bullpen are decided

• Health
  • Keeping pitchers healthy throughout the season
  • Extended rest between outings – good or bad?
• Analytics
  • How best to use analytics as a coach
    • Objective vs. subjective view
  • Analytics vs. Gut
    • Pulling Blake Snell in the World Series
    • Trusting analytics, and when to go with your gut
  • How are stats/analytics used to help players on the major league level?
    • Which are the key stats/indicators that you look at?
• Injury Guru’s Trivia of the Week
• Rule changes in baseball
  • Universal DH
  • 3 batter minimum rule for pitchers
  • Extra inning runner on 2nd base rule
• Position players pitching in baseball
  • Effectiveness of Ariel pitching in the major leagues

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The latest episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Trevor May, New York Mets

Interview

• Highlight of Career
• Game planning
  • Is about pitching to your strengths, or exploiting your opponents weaknesses?
  • Game planning team by team
  • Helping other teammates with game planning
  • Having a “default” game plan
  • Using MLB the Show
  • Learning from other teammates
• Health
  • Recovering from TJS
  • Switching from starter to reliever
  • Keeping healthy all season long
  • Extended rest between outings – good or bad?
• Injury Guru Trivia of the Week
• Analytics
  • Trevor’s own stat – Command Quality Ratio (CQR)
  • Trevor’s CQR and Ariel’s wPDI
  • Horizontal movement vs. vertical movement on pitches
  • Pitch velocity, spin rate, spin efficiency
  • Hanging out with the analytics staff
• Mailbag
  • Who do you NOT want to face with the bases loaded?
  • Why #65?
  • Day games vs. night games
  • Favorite inning to pitch in
  • Love of cats
  • Favorite podcast

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