Can We Trust These Five Breakout Hitters From 2026?

Today we’re looking at hitters who earned $10 in value that broke out in 12-team leagues. A breakout is a player who drastically outperformed their projected value, with some being drafted in the final round of 12-team leagues or going undrafted. We’re using those arbitrary cutoffs to find players who provided solid fantasy value but somewhat came out of nowhere. I imagine if we filtered by dates, some of these draft prices would change, so take that with a grain of salt.

Draft price aside, are those breakouts legitimate? Should we buy or sell those performances as an early look toward 2027? Is there something that could have predicted those breakouts to help us in the future? We hope to answer those questions when analyzing these players. Given the large sample, we’ll break this up into multiple articles.

We won’t discuss Jake Bauers, Jake McCarthy, and Jordan Walker, because we covered them in an earlier article on hitters who drastically outperformed their projected value this season. That said, Kazuma Okamoto, Munetaka Murakami, and Kevin McGonigle were highly sought-after hitters, but they don’t have an ADP listed on the Player Rater. In most 12-team leagues, Okamoto, Murakami, and McGonigle had an ADP around pick 200 or earlier.

Carter Jensen, C, Royals

Projected: 398 PA, 12 HR, 4 SB

Earned: 603 PA, 27 HR, 2 SB

Most of these breakouts came from additional volume. Jensen hit leadoff in 56.7% of his plate appearances, boosting his counting stats and fantasy value. That said, Salvador Perez played mostly at designated hitter with the second-most plate appearances at catcher. Besides Jensen serving as the catcher, he also slotted into the DH role.

In Jensen’s tiny 2025 rookie sample of 69 plate appearances, he teased us with a 14.5% barrel rate per plate appearance and the 6th-highest (105.7 mph) Exit Velocity 50 (EV50) among hitters with 25 batted ball events in 2025. Jensen’s continued to hit the ball hard for barrels (46). That led to a 7.6% barrel rate per plate appearance. Though Jensen’s EV50 fell to 102.1 mph (No. 43), he crushes the ball when he hits it.

Jensen’s underlying exit velocity data supports his home run boost, as a hitter who pulls the ball into the air. For context, Jensen had a 23.1% pulled air rate this season, a couple of points above his career average. If Jensen maintains consistent playing time and power, it’s hard to avoid being excited about him in 2027.

Kazuma Okamoto, 3B, Blue Jays

Projected: 523 PA, 22 HR, 2 SB

Earned: 636 PA, 33 HR, 1 SB

When debating Okamoto and Munetaka Murakami, Okamoto was supposed to have more safety and a better hit tool grade. Among qualified Blue Jays hitters, Okamoto led the team in home runs. Behind Okamoto were George Springer (15), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (9), Alejandro Kirk (10), and Nathan Lukes (10) (minimum 150 plate appearances).

Okamoto uses a pull-heavy (52.8%), flyball (47.4%) approach, supported by his 26.8% pulled-air rate. Okamoto’s pull-heavy approach aligns with an 8% barrel rate per plate appearance and a 101.3 mph EV50 (No. 67). His batting average could be a problem since he hits most of his balls into the air. Though hitters who hit the ball hard tend to have higher expected batting averages, Okamoto’s 69.8% contact rate is on the 70% fringe of where it raises concern.

If the Blue Jays’ hitters regress positively after a 94 wRC+ (No. 24), Okamoto could replicate his 2026 season with slightly more counting stats. Okamoto’s skills support his performance, and we can expect a similar projection for 2027.

Munetaka Murakami, 1B, White Sox

Projected: 547 PA, 28 HR, 8 SB

Earned: 553 PA, 35 HR, 1 SB

Though Murakami hasn’t dominated in the MLB playoffs, we could see a postseason ADP bump. Murakami missed over a month with a hamstring injury in late May. Before the hamstring injury, he hit 20 home runs with a .240 batting average and a 158 wRC+. After returning in early July, Murakami hit 15 home runs, with a .181 batting average and 107 wRC+.

Before the injury, Murakami had a 71.8% contact rate, 16.2% swinging-strike rate, and a 35.7% HR/FB rate with 25 barrels (10.2% per plate appearance). After the injury, Murakami had a slightly lower 67.5% contact rate, 16.2% swinging-strike rate, and a 24.6% HR/FB rate with 28 barrels (9.1% per plate appearance). Though Murakami’s home run rate regressed, he still hit the ball hard while struggling to make contact.

Murakami’s .204 xBA incorporates the exit velocities and contact issues. We already saw the floor with the home run upside after his hamstring injury. The pre-season projections were spot on for playing time, but he exceeded home run expectations. Similarly, projections had Murakami with a .217 batting average, within 10 points of his actual output.

Murakami crushes fastballs with a .390 xwOBA, 96.3 mph average exit velocity, and 10.3% barrel rate per plate appearance. Unfortunately, Murakami struggles to make contact against breaking and offspeed pitches. That’s evident in Murakami’s 20.2% swinging-strike rate against offspeed pitches and an 18% swinging-strike rate against breaking balls. Murakami had a .159 xBA against offspeed pitches and a .193 xBA against breaking pitches. He still whiffed against fastballs (15.8% swinging-strike rate), yet had a better xBA (.225).

Since 2021, Murakami has the 2nd-lowest contact rate (60.2%), ahead of Joey Gallo from 2023 (58.9%). Like Gallo, Murakami doesn’t chase (24.1%), leading to walks and higher on-base percentages. That boosts Murakami’s value in leagues with OBP categories and points, though strikeouts might outweigh them in some points-league scoring formats.

Carson Benge, OF, Mets

Projected: 381 PA, 10 HR, 8 SB

Earned: 654 PA, 20 HR, 22 SB

From mid-May to early July, around when Francisco Lindor returned from his injury, Benge often hit leadoff. Benge was the only rookie hitter who went 20/20 this season. Sal Stewart (32/15) was the only other rookie who was close. Benge earned fantasy value with his power and speed. Plus, he had volume in his favor, with the 3rd-highest plate appearances among rookies.

Benge’s 5% barrel rate per plate appearance aligns with the league average, suggesting he needs volume to compile 15-20 home runs in the future. He boasts a strong hit tool, with a 79.9% contact rate and a 9.3% swinging-strike rate. That can raise Benge’s floor with a strong batting average and the potential to sustain a higher BABIP (.341). With Benge’s 82nd-percentile Sprint Speed and 70th-percentile Outs Above Average, he can use his speed and athleticism to boost his BABIP and plate appearances if the bat struggles.

Benge had a solid 15% stolen base opportunity rate and converted 81% of his chances. He has the skills and tools to post another 20/20 season, with above-average plate discipline to keep his batting average floor high. Benge should be a 2027 outfield draft target, assuming he isn’t overpriced.

Zack Gelof, 2B/3B/OF, Athletics

Projected: 164 PA, 5 HR, 5 SB

Earned: 435 PA, 22 HR, 16 SB

Gelof was left for dead after a wrist, rib, and shoulder injuries impacted his 2025 season. That drove a low plate appearance projection, though he was efficient in home runs and stolen bases.

Gelof’s career-best bat speed (73.8 mph) aligns with a bounce-back in barrels, as he posted a 7.1% barrel rate per plate appearance. He continued pulling batted balls into the air (17.9%), helping him tap into his pull-side power. It helped that Gelof and the Athletics played in the best home run park for right-handed hitters last season.

Interestingly, Gelof improved his plate discipline, with a career-best 72.9% contact rate and 12.6% swinging-strike rate. He swung less often, lowering his swing rate to 46.5%, down three points from his career norm. Gelof was more patient, though the whiffs could return. It helps boost Gelof’s floor if he isn’t a volatile hitter with plenty of whiffs and power. Gelof had a 20% stolen base opportunity rate and converted 84% of his chances. That aligned with his career averages.

If you believe Gelof’s plate discipline improved, he should be a target in 2027, especially with the multi-positional flexibility. There might be enough skeptics to expect Gelof’s numbers to regress with the historically poor plate discipline.