Can Michael Saunders Meet His Potential?
It seems like Michael Saunders has been tantalizing fantasy managers with his annual seven weeks of quality hitting for the better part of this century. Even for a Mariner fan, it’s surprising to look up and realize The Condor really only has two full seasons under his belt, and he is entering his age 27 season, having a birthday just three days ago. When Saunders is going good, he can be a handy fantasy player. The problem is, of course, all of the bad that he mixes in between those stretches.
Even in 2012, when there was some reason to be optimistic after his .247/.306/.432 line with 19 home runs and 21 stolen bases, Saunders had unbearable ups and downs. This has become the Saunders modus operandi in his brief major league career, unfortunately, as that trend carried over into 2013:
It seems like there are less circuitous routes to take to achieve league average, but as a fantasy owner, this is incredibly difficult to manage. It’s likely that there were many managers who picked Saunders up after his decent April only to have him serve as a black hole for two months. He was no doubt waiver fodder by July, and then he performed well above league average for the rest of the year. Maddening.
All told, Saunders hit .236/.323/.397 with 12 home runs and 13 stolen bases over 468 plate appearances. Not a player you want to build around. He did demonstrate a great eye in 2013 with an 11.5% walk rate but he continues to struggle against left handed pitching, and may be entering the 2014 season as a platoon player for the Seattle Mariners, depending on how their winter goes.
There’s a glimmer of hope in his batted ball and plate discipline numbers. He swung at only 22% of pitches outside the strike zone, which is among the likes of traditionally stingy Jose Bautista and Shin-Soo Choo. His swinging strike rate also fell to a career low 10.4%, not that he should be particularly proud of that figure. But Saunders also managed a career high line drive rate at 22%, which ain’t half bad. It seems like the pieces are at least laying around in the general vicinity of each other to be put together into one solid player.
The Steamer projection doesn’t see much in the way of improvement going forward: .231/.317/.383 with 17 home runs, 80 runs (!), and 18 stolen bases over 641 plate appearances. For context, nobody on the Mariner roster scored 80 runs in 2013, so this would be quite an achievement. And I’m not so sure I’d bank on 600+ plate appearances unless the Mariners come up completely empty in their search for outfielders this winter, but I suppose anything is possible.
There’s still some upside in Saunders that is difficult to shake, but until he demonstrates that he can be more of a consistent contributor, he doesn’t provide enough in the way of counting stats to weather the down times. The risk of the dreaded platoon makes him too risky to carry unless you’re in a league-specific or particularly deep league.
Michael was born in Massachusetts and grew up in the Seattle area but had nothing to do with the Heathcliff Slocumb trade although Boston fans are welcome to thank him. You can find him on twitter at @michaelcbarr.
I assume you mean SB not RBI
fixed. Thanks.
If he were 22…..although he turns what, 27 this year? So, it’s a possibility for him to have a breakout year.
To answer the question in the title: Not as long as he remains a Mariner. Pitchers may be different, but position players get worse when they don the Teal of Shame.
Yes. I’ve owned him for the past 2 years in ottoneu and he drives me nuts. I just dropped him at $5 and may pick him up again this year, but only if I can get him for $1 or $2. He is easy to dream on. The year I don’t pick him up he’ll finally put it all together.
Michael Saunders is better than his Steamer. 2013 has to be taken as a disappointing ‘what if’ season. Michael tore it up in Spring Training and the WBS; this was going to be his breakout year, and he was putting the bat on the ball well. . . . Then just a few games into the season, he injured his right shoulder making a leaping catch up against the wall. I believe it was a mild separation, though the Mariners’ coyly gave no details. He was rushed back into the lineup with waaaay ahead of time and with scarcely any rehab because the Mariners’ 25-man didn’t even have another CFer on it and included Raul Ibanez and Mike Morse starting in the corners at that point. ( . . . Yeah . . . .) Michael couldn’t really swing for the next two months because he couldn’t pull through with his bottom hand, but he was trundled out to play two-thirds of the time anyway. His power vanished; his contact plunged. It was sick to watch, but he played through it. By summer when the shoulder was really healed, he put up the better numbers we see via the charts: THAT is the real Michael Saunders.
I don’t normally buy the ‘he was injured’ spiel . . . but in fact, Saunders WAS injured in a way that severely and negatively drove his performance down. So what is Michael, really? He has a very good eye at the plate and will always walk. He is a good percentage basestealer who was under-utilized in that regard by the Mariners’ idjit ex-manager who didn’t work teh running game at all. Saunders is stretched in center, and should only go there as a back-up, but he is above average in either corner with enough arm for RF. Michael IS vulnerable to lefties as far as contact and power, though he still draws walks. Michael Saunders could be a productive, near full-time corner outfielder who sits down against a few tough lefties. The real problem for him is that he’s played in an organization so talent thin he’s been pushed into more prominent roles.
If we plan on Michael Saunders as the 3rd OFer patrollig a corner on a balanced squad, he could play for nearly any team, really. By the time the Mariners are that, he may be past his best years. I would still stay, take the over on Michael Saunders, he does have the talent.
Nice piece Balt. I’ve been watching him from afar for a bit now. I think I’ll color him green on my spreadsheet. As in moving up not stopping.
Thanks.
And who said this wasn’t a fantasy site?
Saunders spent the offseason BEFORE the 2012 year working with Josh Bard’s brother (who is a hitting instructor.) He broke some really bad habits and started the 2012 season like a brand new hitter. Unfortunately he fell back into some of his bad habits and probably should be made to spend his entire offseason with Bard’s brother this year to see if he can “break through.” Everyone agrees….he looks like he should be a 4 1/2 tool player (arm is average+) but just can’t seem to get it together. Also, he is a superb corner OF and just a so-so CF (certain metrics stay he is a horrible CF, but I watch with the eyes every day and he is doing about as well as the “average” CF in terms of reads, range etc.) Frustrating for Seattle fans along with a variety of other players who just have not been able to sustain their “promise.” Hanson hopefully will get the heave-ho. Shame that George Brett’s heritage is not with the Mariners as his one month as KC’s instructor seems to have helped them enormously. Amazing what some good coaching, good scouting (use of BATS video and data) can do for motivated hitters and team. Doubt if Lloyd McClendon is going to have the Mariners walking around with iPads loaded up with the last 100 pitches from the next day’s starter to LH or RH hitters etc.