Bye Week Bliss

I sat down to write this article at the start of the Cubs-Reds game on a sunny Sunday afternoon. It matched my disposition. Earlier in the day, I’d clinched an enviable first round bye in my home league. But the final game of the day was a game of consequence for a few of my league mates in a less privileged playoff position. 

Their two teams were separated by just a game in our head-to-head categories league. 

Both were in matchups where Cubs hitters had the chance to make or break their seasons. A run scored by Michael Busch or Nico Hoerner would send a surging Cinderella story packing and let a team that looked to be a shoo-in a few months ago limp into the playoffs. A stolen base by Ian Happ would have had the same effect, but was not really much of a consideration.  

As is typical while watching a Sunday afternoon game, my mind wandered as Joey Votto and Anthony Rizzo provided some colorful commentary and Shota Imanaga allowed a trio of homers. 

I was struck by how much more fun it is to watch a game when your playoff ticket has already been punched, especially when you sit in the enviable position of a first round bye, compared to my friends who were in states of respective anxiety and hopelessness. And not in an abstract way. My buddies were texting me to make sure I was watching. As commissioner, I of course was expected to be tuned in. They were relaying their fears, casting dispersions on their opponents, and sighing (which is hard to convey over text) with an understanding that this may not be their year. 

In the midst of all of this consternation, I had work to do. 

With a first round bye secured, it was time to prepare for next week. Or really, to think about next week’s moves to be made with an eye towards Week 24, my league’s penultimate. 

For those of you in similar positions, this article is for you. And for those of you who are steeling yourselves for a playoff matchup, or worse, getting ready for football season, maybe you can live through this thought process and take a bit of “what if” bliss away. Or just enjoy being annoyed at someone who’s gotten a bit luckier. 

During a bye week, between sipping piña coladas and kicking your feet up, you won’t have too much time to get ready for next week. But in the time you do have, it’s worth checking in on a few things: which teams have the best Week 24 matchups, which pitchers are lined up for two-start weeks, and perhaps most importantly, what your potential opponent’s roster construction looks like in relation to your own. 

We’ll start with the things you can control – preparing to add players with advantageous Week 24 (Monday, September 7 – Sunday, September 13) matchups and pitchers with two-start weeks.

My colleague Jack Martin covered the best matchups for hitters and pitchers a few weeks back, so rather than do all new analysis, we’ll start there.

He identified combinations of opponent FIP (split by home/away) and park factors that would either benefit hitters or pitchers.

Starting off with the best hitting options, the Boston Red Sox have six games at home against the lowly Angels and Royals. If you’ve been benching Adley Rutschman, waiting patiently for Willson Contreras to bounce back, or waiting even more patiently for Roman Anthony or Trevor Story, this should be a good week for you. Caleb Durbin has gone 16 consecutive games without a home run, but has identical walk and strikeout rates (11.7%) over that span. He could just need a healthy dose of mediocre pitching to get going. 

The Mariners and Jays will be party to a week of games in West Sacramento for the A’s. This could be a chance for a few key players to provide big power outputs. If Dominic Canzone gets to face lefties, he could be interesting, but he sat in his most recent opportunity to face a southpaw, and the Rangers and A’s have a slew of lefties he’ll likely face, including Cody Bradford, Jeffrey Springs, and Gage Jump. However, Canzone will have already had the chance to see both Springs and Jump this week, so perhaps familiarity will help Dan Wilson choose to play Canzone? 

Otherwise, run with Lawrence Butler and Henry Bolte in the outfield for the Athletics. And start George Springer if you have him, he’s got multi-hit games in six of his last eight starts for the Jays. 

Looking around the the National League, the Diamondbacks will take on the Royals and Rangers, though there are few D-backs bats to add given their platoon tendencies of late, other than Tim Tawa. The first baseman will wrap up August with five homers, six steals, and a .288/.342/.462 slash while racking up multi-hit games. He’s hitting over .300 this season against changeups, which he could see a steady supply of from Noah Cameron, Michael Wacha, and company. 

Wrapping up the hitters, the Brewers will have the Cubs and Reds come to town, and there are not many opportunities to add hitters here. Garrett Mitchell has just two career homers against lefties and he’s lined up to face David Peterson, Shota Imanaga, and Nick Lodolo. Conversely, Andrew Vaughn has seen his playing time disappear of late with the return of Jake Bauers from injury, but facing those lefties could mean he gets the call. 

Focusing on Tawa in leagues where he’s still available could be the safest bet. 

On the pitching side, the pickings are particularly slim. The Giants and Padres have two of the friendliest matchups by Jack Martin’s aforementioned tracker. These two teams will face each other after facing the Nationals and Cardinals, respectively. The most likely available arms from these two rotations are Walker Buehler and Blade Tidwell. I think it’s safe to avoid stashing them. 

Now for the more fun and customizable component: opponent roster construction. 

Throughout the week, you’ll be able to track your opponents’ matchups to see who it is you’re likely to play. From there, you see how your lineup will stack up. 

Does your opponent have more closers? Maybe you add Mason Montgomery or Grant Taylor in shallow leagues. 

Does your opponent line up for a few two-start weeks, even more rare during the final month of the season? You may want to plan ahead and stream yourself.

If they have speedsters, maybe you drop some of your own speedsters if you’re typically less competitive in steals in favor of some hitters with a favorable series on the docket. 

Your ability to throw out a season’s worth of doubt and not wanting to cut top-end talent that has underperformed can be put to rest. If you somehow secured a bye while dragging Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Kyle Tucker into the playoffs, and you see Ezequiel Duran or Daylen Lile on the wire, maybe now is the time to pull the trigger. You only get so many chances at the big prize. May as well go down swinging.