Bullpen Report: May 6, 2019
I’m sorry, Luke Jackson, wasn’t sure you were for real.
But you sealed the Braves’ Sunday win.
Now you’re at the head of the closer grid.
This is why I write fantasy columns and not parody songs.
While A.J. Minter has not notched a save since April 24, Jackson has now converted two saves in eight days, and he was unavailable for the one save opportunity that the Braves have had in that span that he didn’t get. On Sunday, Jackson took care of the Marlins in the bottom of the 10th inning to complete a 3-1 win, while Minter did not appear in the game. Brian Snitker did use Minter in the next-closest thing the Braves had to a save situation this past week, having him pitch the ninth inning against the Padres with a 5-1 lead on Wednesday. For his part, Minter pitched an perfect inning.
So for now, I am designating both Jackson and Minter as part of a closer tandem, but Jackson would seem to have the upper hand for future saves.
Raisel Iglesias is still leading off the Reds’ portion of the closer grid, but his grip on the role is getting increasingly tenuous. Entering Sunday’s game against the Giants, Iglesias had allowed a run in back-to-back appearances, and Brandon Crawford’s two-run homer extended the streak to three. It also broke a 4-4 tie and ultimately proved to be the winning run for the Giants. Will Smith did give up a solo homer to Kyle Farmer in the bottom of the inning, but he had enough cushion to earn his ninth save, while Iglesias fell to 1-5.
The combination of a 20.5 percent ground ball rate and a bandbox of a home park is not serving Iglesias well, as opponents have posted a .352 ISO against him at home. The bigger problem, though, is that Iglesias is getting hammered by left-handed hitters. All four homers he has allowed have come against lefties, and they have racked up a .296/.387/.815 slash line against him.
Iglesias is still avoiding the “Hot Seat” tag in the grid, because David Bell assured reporters after the game that he will remain as the team’s closer. If there were a category between “Not Very Stable” and “Hot Seat,” Iglesias would be in it. At least in deeper leagues, now would be a good time to start making bids on Amir Garrett. If nothing else, maybe Bell will start using Garrett in save situations that feature multiple lefties.
Kenley Jansen is yet another flyball-prone closer who got burned by the long ball on Sunday. The Padres led off the bottom of the ninth inning by loading the bases with three straight singles off Jansen. The Dodgers’ closer nearly escaped by striking out Greg Garcia and getting Francisco Mejia to hit an infield fly, but then Hunter Renfroe walked it off with a grand slam.
Even though Eric Hosmer and Renfroe both scorched Jansen with hits traveling at exit velocities exceeding 106 mph, it’s probably an exaggeration to say that he got hit around. The second and third singles he allowed both came on bunts, the first of which rolled away from the base line while Justin Turner waited for it to roll the other way. Jansen is not as dominant as he was as recently as two years ago, but he is a good bet to rebound from Sunday’s debacle. He was even on nice brief roll prior to Sunday’s game, having allowed only one hit over this previous three innings with six strikeouts and a 21.8 percent SwStr%.
For much of his career, Ian Kennedy’s flyball tendencies have made him a risky fantasy proposition, but a greater reliance on his curveball has helped to boost his ground ball rate in his first season as a reliever. However, even Kennedy got burned by a home run on Sunday, as he coughed up a two-out, three-run shot to Brandon Dixon. The walk-off homer gave the Tigers a 5-2, 10-inning win over the Royals and left Kennedy with his first loss of the season.
It was a good news/bad news Sunday for Blake Treinen. He was unavailable to pitch against the Pirates due to a sore right elbow, but he was feeling better than he did on Saturday. At least in the interim, Lou Trivino will be the Athletics’ closer. In Sunday’s game, Trivino pitched scoreless seventh and eighth innings, keeping the game knotted at 1-1. However, the Pirates walked it off in the bottom of the 13th inning on — you guessed it — a three-run homer from Starling Marte. Fernando Rodney, who gave up the homer, had a chance for his first save of the season, as the A’s scored twice off Tyler Lyons in his Pirates’ debut in the top of the inning.
One reliever whom Clint Hurdle did not call on during this tight game was Keone Kela, who was unavailable as a result of tightness in his right shoulder. Kyle Crick will be the Pirates’ primary setup reliever until more is known about Kela’s status.
Archie Bradley faced five batters in his quest to help the Diamondbacks hold on to a 7-3 lead over the Rockies in the eighth inning, but he did not retire any of them. He allowed two singles, a triple and a walk, though he would likely have gotten one out, if not for a throwing error by Eduardo Escobar. A bases-clearing triple by Raimel Tapia tied the game and led to Bradley getting removed in favor of Andrew Chafin.
Over his last five appearances covering four innings, Bradley has exhibited poor control (37.5 percent Zone%) and been amenable to contact (7.5 percent SwStr%). Normally, hitters don’t swing much at his pitches in the strike zone, but over this span, Bradley has an inflated 73.3 percent Z-Swing%.
Quick hits: Josh Hader (9), Aroldis Chapman (7), Wade Davis (5) each recorded a save on Sunday…The Padres placed Trey Wingenter on the 10-day IL on Sunday with a right shoulder strain…Kelvin Herrera allowed the Red Sox to undo a 2-2 tie in the top of the eighth inning, and after having allowed two runs, he was lifted due to a stiff lower back. The White Sox have listed him as day-to-day.
Al Melchior has been writing about Fantasy baseball and sim games since 2000, and his work has appeared at CBSSports.com, BaseballHQ, Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster and FanRagSports. He has also participated in Tout Wars' mixed auction league since 2013. You can follow Al on Twitter @almelchiorbb and find more of his work at almelchior.com.
At what point is Nick Anderson going to be a threat to Romo’s job? He looks like by far the best option they have in that bullpen.
Anderson is the best option, but he’s on the fringe of even being in the setup mix. I think it’s going to be awhile…maybe around the ASB?
Wouldn’t shock me if MIA holds him back from closing to keep future arb salaries down.
I’d agree if he were hitting arb next season, but his clock just started this year.
Yeah but it’s the Marlins. They’re the definition of cheap and have nothing to play for. If losing a few more games with Romo means not paying a few extra bucks down the line, you can bet they’ll do it.
Teams try to keep saves down in the pre-arbitration years moreso than in the arbitration years. The first arbitration salary is the most important in terms of monies because it sets the baseline for all future years or arbitration.
It’s hard to see Trivino as next-man-up after Treinen based on yesterday’s usage. Soria got the 9th in a tie game and Rodney was saved for the (blown) save. Trivino came in for the 7th inning of a tie game, which is not how you use your closer. You can make a case that Trivino would eventually force himself into saves if Treinen had a long absence, but it looks to me like they would first give the veteran “closer experience” guys a chance (maybe being cheap with arb. $).
I mean he’s so skilled though that it’s kind of irrelevant — you want him rostered no matter what now
I posted in comments about this the other day. There really are not many good examples of teams giving saves to a veteran over a pre-arbitration or arbitration guy to save money in arbitration. I think it’s a great theory, there just aren’t any examples of it actually happening.
Your analysis didn’t really look at it from the right perspective though… Instead of looking at the guys that are closing, and whether they’re pre-arb./arb./salaried, you need to look at the guys that aren’t closing, but probably should be, and why. You want to look for if a team has a pre-arb./arb. reliever that’s better than their closer (i.e., should be their closer but isn’t). Or a team that’s kind of already tagged someone as their “closer of the future” but aren’t using them to close yet. And then the question is why is this reliever blocked? Typically it’s on bad teams that don’t have much to lose if a save gets blown (and don’t really have much to gain if the save gets converted).
There aren’t a whole lot of examples this season – and even in previous seasons, like service time manipulation a team can always find *a* reason to do whatever. I might point to Joe Jimenez, who’s already been tagged as Detroit’s closer of the future, a team that isn’t expecting to be good this season and wouldn’t have anything to lose by letting him go through some growing pains. Ty Buttery was the Angels’ closer at the end of 2018, but they made the choice to sign Cody Allen to be their closer. (That has not worked out.) You can typically always point to the Marlins; every day or two there’s a question about Nick Anderson. He’s blocked by… Sergio Romo? Over the past few years it was the same story with Kyle Barraclough. I couldn’t tell you the name of the closer(s) that were always blocking him offhand. (None of these examples are perfect in any way, shape or form; which means there’s always going to be a justification if you want to find one.)
But Shane Greene is in arbitration himself with another arbitration year next year. It doesn’t make sense to let him keep piling up saves if your goal is to reduce pay in arbitration. As to the Angels, you don’t save any money by signing a free agent to a big deal ($8.5M for Allen) in order to save a few dollars in arbitration on Buttrey. This would apply to a lesser extent with the DBacks with Bradley/Holland as well, though Holland’s deal is only $3.5M.
As for Romo – his projections are better than anyone else in that bullpen other than Anderson who has a whole 14.2 IP in the majors at this point. I suspect if Anderson keeps mowing guys down, he’ll be closing before too long but you can’t begrudge them wanting him to get at least a little experience under his belt 1st. Also, ROmo wasn’t blocking Barraclough last year, that was Ziegler, another high-priced free agent that doesn’t save you any money in the supposed arbitration saves shell game. (Furthermore, Barraclough is more blocked by his inability to limit walks than anything).
I looked at every team when I prepared that comment the other day. Over a quarter of the guys closing right now are pre-arb guys. I’m just not seeing it myself.
It does make sense to roll with Greene if you plan on trading him. There were rumors last year but he had a sort of meh season. Next year is Arb 3 and they likely see their window of competing as possibly starting next year but definitely 2021.
I think that yeah, they are riding with the hot hand who is higher in Arb who has legit trade value. I imagine Greene can command significant value since he’s still in Arb and a legit closer.
Aka I don’t think they plan on keeping Greene long enough to go through Arb again
Could you rank these guys in a S/H points league?
Buttrey, Parker, Pagan, Lugo, Guerra, Beeks, Jackson
The first 4 are rostered by me, but Guerra and Beeks have intriguing points totals and Jackson is still there.
Beeks just intrigues me overall
This is probably my favorite fantasy column! Unfortunately I drafted Leclerc and Kimbrel so I need to stay a step ahead of my league finding fresh hot saves.
Do you like Luke Jackson more than Shawn Kelley? Do you think Jacks has a better chance of holding onto the job long-term?
Thanks for the help!!