Bullpen Report: May 31, 2018
• On one hand, Brad Ziegler is 9/10 on save opportunities. That’s pretty good! On the other hand, he has a 7.83 ERA and 5 losses. That’s pretty bad! Ziegler entered last night’s contest in a 2-1 game in the bottom of the ninth and walked Franmil Reyes to start the inning. Raffy Lopez flied out for an out, then Freddy Galvis hit a double. With runners on first and second, Ziegler walked Manuel Margot to face Hunter Renfroe who hit the game winning, two RBI single. After the game, Don Mattingly said “you want to get something dependable at the end of the game.” At the moment, it’s clear that isn’t the case. Whether someone else sees the next save chance we don’t know, but Miami is on red alert. I would run to pick up Kyle Barraclough with Tayron Guerrero and Drew Steckenrider behind him. Barraclough has a pretty 1.48 ERA but a 4.06 FIP and 4.07 SIERA suggest some regression might come. Barraclough’s SwStr% and K% are essentially matching last year’s numbers but they’re also down from his 2016 when he was a whiff monster. A 5.55 BB/9 may not hold for too long in the ninth inning, so despite Steckenrider’s inflated 5.01 ERA he’s also someone to keep an eye on as his ERA indicators are a bit bteter with a 3.12 FIP and 2.98 SIERA, along with Guerrero ahd his 3.55 FIP/3.40 SIERA and 98 mph heater.
• Jeurys Familia pitched around two hits for a scoreless inning last night but it occurred in the eighth with Robert Gsellman pitching a perfect ninth for his second save on the year. This isn’t something that Terry Collins would ever use but coming from Cleveland with Andrew Miller and Cody Allen, using the top reliever for the better part of the lineup might be something Mickey Callaway tries out in New York. Familia faced the top of the Braves lineup in the eighth with Gsellman getting the bottom third for the easy save. I won’t catapult off of this to change the grid but it does confirm Gsellman is next in line and if Callaway continues to use Familia like this, Gsellman could see a few more saves moving forward.
• After experiencing some forearm discomfort this weekend, Felipe Vazquez pitched a scoreless ninth for his 10th save of the year last night. Vazquez threw the day before and was hitting 99 mph last night so any concerns about his arm should be alleviated for the time being.
• Mark Melancon has been on the shelf all year for the Giants but he might be returning to the team on Friday. Hunter Strickland has filled in admirably for Melancon going 11/13 on saves with a 3.28 FIP and 3.56 SIERA, including a save last night. Melancon is getting paid the big bucks so it’s likely the Giants would allow him to regain the job again but he will have to earn it. Strickland owners can’t be happy about a Melancon return but depending on how both perform, he could stand to still see several more saves.
• Carl Edwards Jr. is hitting the DL and we have moved Steve Cishek onto the grid. Edwards has been one of the top set up men this year and hopefully he’s able to return to form sooner rather than later. Justin Wilson is another name to keep tabs on behind Pedro Strop and Cishek as leading candidates for holds in Chicago.
• Quick Hits: Corey Knebel only faced one batter for his 5th save. Josh Hader threw 1.2 innings previously, striking out four but was taken out for Knebel for the final out. Hader could still see some occasional multi-inning saves but Knebel is the closer. When Max Scherzer is on the bump you likely won’t need many relievers and the Nationals only needed one inning from the pen with Sean Doolittle picking up his 13th save. Kelvin Herrera threw a perfect ninth, lowering his ERA to 0.83 and getting his 12th save in the process. He’s likely one of the top relief options that oculd be had at the deadline. Normally this would be cause for concern to lose his job but it’s possible he goes to a team where he is the closer as well. If you’re targeting him in fantasy, I would make sure to be mindful of any and all trade rumors, and acknowledge he could be moved and lose the ninth on the new team. Keone Kela allowed two hits and a run en route to his 12th save. The Rangers will also be in sell mode in July, so Kela is another name that could lose his hold on the job if he’s moved.
When he's not focusing on every team's bullpen situation, Ben can be found blogging at Ben's Baseball Bias and on Twitter @BensBias
Iglesias is back and got a save last night.
Whoops, updated!
Definitely should at least change the grid to have Gsellman ahead of Rhame.
sorry for the error, this is updated and thanks!
Thank you for all your hard work!
Britton isn’t shown on the DL for Bal and he’s nearing a return. Iglesias is shown on the DL and as the closer.
Thanks and fixed. We’ll probably write up on Britton soon as he nears a return. We’re also probably due for a rumor roundup as trades change the saves landscape quite drastically.
I wish these posts would speak more to arb dollars and their impact on who might close.
This bit about Barraclough (and Tayron)… I don’t buy it for a second. Giving him saves means he will make a lot more money, I doubt the FO will allow it.
And in general, this is a huge factor, but you essentially never mention it. I don’t think these writeups are complete without taking money into account, *especially* re: extremely cost conscious teams like the Marlins.
It’s always a thought but I lean more towards baseball reasons. In the event that Barraclough were to close, succeed, and get expensive the Marlins would just trade him for a prospect without spending much more money as he would have more value.
We have mentioned this on occasion but it’s more seldom as baseball reasons usually play out more often than not.
Mattingly couldn’t commit to a closer for the next opportunity, suggesting the FO isn’t forcing Ziegler to close.
For all we know he just said that to the media without talking to the FO first. It was a post-game comment.
Fair point about trading him after he closes.
I’m not saying ignore the on-the-field reasons, they matter the most, my point is that both matter. You can easily mention both, no?
ok… so my foot tastes good, guys. lol, only took about 24 hours for me to be proven very wrong.
This theory (teams not letting guys accumulate saves because it affects their arbitration value) has been thrown around on this site quite a bit, especially in the comments. It makes sense on some level and I put absolutely nothing past the owners but honestly, how much does it really come into play? You can point to certain situations where maybe it looks like teams are playing that game, but aren’t there a ton of other situations where teams are pretty clearly not playing arbitration games?
– Giles still has 2 more years of arbitration and the Astros committed to him 2 years ago. They clearly have other options (though most of them are also still in their arbitration years) but are sticking with Giles even though he is having some issues this year (at least with ERA, his peripherals are solid,if a bit goofy)
– Diaz was installed as the Mariners closer midway through his rookie year and they have never deviated from him. He still has 1 more year before he even reaches arbitration.
– Knebel was installed as closer last year with 4 more years of arbitration remaining. They are re-inserting him at closer after a DL stint even though they clearly have other options at present
– Kela is the Rangers’ closer this year even though he has 3 more arbitration years
– Vazquez was installed as the primary closer by the Pirates last year with multiple arbitration years left (they signed him in January this year to an extension that bought out the remaining years)
Eyeballing the list, I can see a few other guys who I think still have arbitration years left.
What evidence do we have that teams are actually holding guys back from closing specifically to deflate their salaries in arbitration?
Perhaps the economic factors are a bigger consideration for teams that are not in contention. Of course MIL and HOU will put on-field considerations first, but I could see how a Miami or some other low budget cellar dwelling club would do things strictly for monetary reasons.
Perhaps. But if playing arbitration games is such a thing, where are all the examples? I gave 5 specific examples of teams giving the closer role to guys still in arbitration (and there are another 3 with Treinen, Strickland and Tepera, though the Toronto situation is just a little weird right now).
Where can you point to a more deserving arbitration guy getting hosed by a less deserving veteran? I mean I can see Miami as being one but even there it’s not like any of the alternatives are just stud pitchers. Barraclaugh and Guerrero walk far too many guys and even Steckenrider is hardly a control artist. I watched Guerrero get a save opportunity against the Braves last week and he couldn’t find the zone to save his life. He finally had to throw a bunch of straight fastballs down the middle just to get it in there and the Braves thumped him (his line went – SB to inherited runner, walk, single, WP, walk, walkoff single (that was really a double)) He looked like he wanted no part of being on the mound at that moment.
Maybe Tampa Bay with Romo getting the last save over Alverado, but that whole situation is so new it hasn’t had a chance to play out yet.
I guess I’m just not seeing this as being a thing really. . . .
I’ll just throw this out there on the Rays’ closer situation. Rays have announced that Romo will “start” again tomorrow on Friday. Here is the Rays’ upcoming schedule for June:
@SEA (3) – 3 of 1st 4 hitters are RH (& Dee Gordon leads off – hardly fearsome)
@WSN (2) – 2 of 1st 4 are RH (assuming Matt Adams bats 4th)
SEA (4)
TOR (3) – 1 of 4 are RH (unless Donaldson is back, then it’s 2 of 4)
@NYY (4) – 3 of 1st 4 are RH (could be 2 if they stick Bird in there)
@HOU (3) – 1st 4 are RH and possibly as many as 6
NYY (3)
WSN (2)
HOU (3)
I’m seeing a lot of opportunities for Romo to “start” games there. He can’t close games if he’s starting them and he will probably not be available if he’s starting 2 of 3 games in some of those series.