The Daily Grind: Overlay Alert

UPDATE 2: Here’s the aforementioned podcast.

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. Click Bait

1. The Daily Grind Invitational

Well, the good news is Jaymcstell didn’t win three days in a row (sorry Jay). He only finished ninth. Instead, roc-pile took home the gold by combining Max Scherzer, Jose Urena, and mostly non-terrible hitters. Congrats and Leaderboard.

I’m quite confident there will be an overlay for today’s contest. Yesterday, I recovered $10 via the Invitational on otherwise crappy rosters – all because of an overlay. Anyway, I’ll see you tonight for a 52-entry contest on FantasyDraft.

If you have not signed up for FantasyDraft, please use this referral link for tracking purposes. If I understand properly, by using the referral, you will receive a 10 percent return on any rakes you pay.

2. Weather Reports

Baltimore and St. Louis have a chance for storms tonight. Monitor accordingly.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Main Slate: Nine games are in the main slate tonight. Not too shabby for a Thin Thursday. It’s a shame we can’t use Andrew Heaney at Detroit. They’re playing a day game.

The top name on the board is Clayton Kershaw ($22,900). Honestly, I don’t foresee myself ponying up the cash for what could be a restricted outing. He’s returned value in only one of six starts this season. While he should be favored opposite Aaron Nola ($21,300), I doubt anybody will be surprised if the Phillies ace wins the duel.

Jack Flaherty is next most expensive at $18,000? I guess the price is fine. With pitchers, I’m generally looking for a good shot at one point per $1,000. I think Flaherty delivers albeit with very little upside for more.

Let’s skip straight to the oh-so-obvious bargain. Jordan Lyles for $13,900 is a steal opposite the Miami Minnows. Of course, since posting nearly 40 points against the Rockies a couple weeks ago, Lyles has managed fewer than 10 points combined across two starts. If you have balls – the metaphorical kind –  Wei-Yin Chen ($12,000) could offer the same production without a hefty ownership rate. The Padres are shockingly strikeout prone.

Shane Bieber ($14,500) may carry the highest ownership – at least in our contest. I worry he’ll throw a few too many strikes, but that’s an easy adjustment to make if it’s a problem. For now, this is supposedly a spot start. I could see him punting Adam Plutko from the rotation.

Jose Quintana ($14,600) is a solid veteran opposite a macerated Mets lineup. That’s right – the Mets were nice and crisp and then some fool soaked them in liquid. Now they’re all soggy and gross. Except for Brandon Nimmo.

There is no shortage of playable alternatives. Lance McCullers ($16,900) always has top starter upside. I’m not thrilled about a matchup against the Red Sox. If Mookie Betts sits again, I’ll be a little more likely to use McCullers. Sean Newcomb ($16,200) has his good days. So does his opponent Tanner Roark ($15,200).

Stack Targets: Seth Lugo, Andrew Cashner, Mike Minor, Wade LeBlanc, Chen, Drew Pomeranz, Sonny Gray

Honestly, would it shock me if all the stack targets pitched relatively well? No. To be fair, I’m not easily shocked.

4. SaberSim Says…

Kershaw, Quintana, Nola, LeBlanc, and Newcomb are the top rated pitchers. LeBlanc is projected for nearly seven innings which is just flat out incorrect. He’s also the top value along with Lugo, Minor, and Quintana.

Top bats include Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Freddie Freeman, Jose Ramirez, and Trea Turner. Yea, that all adds up. The Braves are quite stolen base prone re: Turner. Derek Dietrich, Franmil Reyes, Justin Bour, Hunter Renfroe, and Jose Pirela are listed as the five best bargains. Something ’bout that Marlins-Padres game.

5. Click Bait

Let’s play a game. You can:

1. Guess the hitter who is nearly an exact clone of Brandon Nimmo. Or…
2. Join my Patreon and read about it (tiny paywall warning). I’m $1 shy of starting a reader mailbag.

By the way, Nimmo is very good. Or perhaps not so much.