Bullpen Report: June 9, 2015

Sorry for the delay on this folks, but here’s a recap from last night…

• In case you felt that the Cubs bullpen situation wasn’t confusing enough, the Cubs decided to bring Rafael Soriano into the mix. We are less interested in the contract particulars here at the Bullpen Report and instead are curious how he will play out in Chicago’s pen. Soriano has yet to pitch this season so he will start off in the minors but speculation is he could be in Chicago around July 1st.  Rafael Soriano wasn’t particularly thrilling last year for Nationals, which helps explain why he wasn’t picked up this offseason but a 3.19/3.08/3.92 ERA/FIP/xFIP pitching line last year is useful. It’s also similar to what Hector Rondon and Pedro Strop have done this year. When Soriano is ready the Cubs are looking at three similarly talented right-handed relievers with Jason Motte lingering as well. However, it should be noted that Soriano seemed to break down towards the end of last year. Whether that’s a sign of what to expect from Soriano moving forward or whether the time off should help him, we will have to wait and see to find out.

I’m inclined to think that while Soriano is toiling in the minors, one of Rondon, Strop or Motte will grab a hold on the ninth inning but maybe this is setting up to be a real committee.

Carson Smith was called on for his second save of the year and although it wasn’t a clean inning, he secured the win for the Mariners. Fernando Rodney‘s struggles this year are well documented and closers with an ERA above six generally don’t last too long unless you are Shawn Chacon over a decade ago. Lloyd McClendon’s loyalty to Rodney and Experienced Closers is of course well known too. If Carson Smith keeps giving up homers in the ninth, Rodney could find himself back in his familiar role, even if Smith is the far better pitcher. As strange as this might sound, if you own Carson Smith and are able to trade him as a closer with a top tier stirkeout rate, you might be able to get great value out of him considering Rodney will always be in the rear window.

Zach Britton recorded a 5-out save for the Orioles for his 16th save on the year. Britton is well known for his ridiculous worm killing ways (68.3% GB%) but he’s really had a breakout this season increasing his strikeouts and limiting his walks. Britton has a 1.14 SIERA in 2015 and it’s not really on the heels of any batted ball or LOB% luck. After 37 saves and a 1.65 ERA, Britton’s managed to improve and ranks as one of the best closers in the league. Looking back on our relief rankings, there are a few tweaks I would, including moving Britton up a few slots.

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Greg Holland got his 11th save of the year after pitching on three consecutive days. He also hit over 96 mph on his fastball and could be turning a corner. I was weary of Holland’s health when doing the ranks, and I still am a bit but I wouldn’t be too shocked to see him perform at more Holland-ian levels in the second half.

• Quick Hits: It wasn’t pretty but Axford now has 11 saves on the season. David Robertson gave up a hit and a strikeout for his 12th save. It wasn’t pretty again for Grilli either but he closed the game, a day after blowing the lead.  K-Rod  probably deserves more respect around these parts (1.23 ERA with above average strikeouts) and he picked up his 12th save on the year. With the Brewers firmly out of the race, he’s a name that should pop up in trade rumors as we approach July.  Kenley Jansen continues to dominate upon his return from the DL, tossing a perfect ninth for save number seven and he now supports a -0.39 FIP. Woah.

Closer Grid:

Closer First Second DL/Minors
Arizona Brad Ziegler Addison Reed Daniel Hudson Enrique Burgos
Atlanta Jason Grilli Jim Johnson Luis Avilan
Baltimore Zach Britton Darren O’Day Tommy Hunter
Boston Koji Uehara Junichi Tazawa Alexi Ogando
CHI (NL) Hector Rondon Pedro Strop Jason Motte Rafael Soriano
CHI (AL) David Robertson Jacob Petricka Zach Duke
Cincy Aroldis Chapman Tony Cingrani J.J. Hoover Sean Marshall
Cleveland Cody Allen Bryan Shaw Zach McAllister
Colorado John Axford Rafael Betancourt Boone Logan Adam Ottavino
Detroit Joakim Soria Joba Chamberlain Angel Nesbitt Joe Nathan
Houston Luke Gregerson Chad Qualls Pat Neshek
KC Greg Holland Wade Davis Kelvin Herrera
LAA Huston Street Joe Smith Fernando Salas
LAD Kenley Jansen Yimi Garcia Chris Hatcher Pedro Baez
Miami A.J. Ramos Bryan Morris Carter Capps Steve Cishek
Milwaukee Francisco Rodriguez Jeremy Jeffress Will Smith
Minnesota Glen Perkins Blaine Boyer Casey Fien
NY (NL) Jeurys Familia Carlos Torres Sean Gilmartin Jenrry Mejia
NY (AL) Andrew Miller Dellin Betances Justin Wilson Chris Martin
Oakland Tyler Clippard Evan Scribner Dan Otero Sean Doolittle
Philly Jonathan Papelbon Ken Giles Luis Garcia
Pittsburgh Mark Melancon Tony Watson Arquimedes Caminero
St. Louis Trevor Rosenthal Seth Maness Matt Belisle Jordan Walden
SD Craig Kimbrel Joaquin Benoit Dale Thayer
SF Santiago Casilla Sergio Romo Jeremy Affeldt
Seattle Carson Smith Fernando Rodney Mark Lowe
TB Brad Boxberger Jake McGee Kevin Jepsen
Texas Shawn Tolleson Tanner Scheppers Keone Kela Neftali Feliz
Toronto Brett Cecil Roberto Osuna Steve Delabar Miguel Castro
Wash. Drew Storen Aaron Barrett Casey Janssen Casey Janssen

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]





When he's not focusing on every team's bullpen situation, Ben can be found blogging at Ben's Baseball Bias and on Twitter @BensBias

34 Comments
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Raysfan01
11 years ago

What is going on with the Rays closer situation? Why hasn’t Cash given McGee the recent save opportunities instead of Jepsen?

francis
11 years ago
Reply to  Raysfan01

Good question. Perhaps it’s just because they decided to give McGee a certain number of innings, appearances, or days before using him as a closer “no matter what”, and they are sticking to the plan.

FeslenR
11 years ago
Reply to  Raysfan01

McGee hasn’t exactly pitched lights out, or well since his return. I am guessing that the sooner McGee rights his ship, the more save chances he’ll get.

jgordon
11 years ago
Reply to  FeslenR

McGee had one game where he pitched .1 of an inning and gave up 3 earned runs.

McGee had 8 other appearances where he pitched 6.2 innings gave up 0 runs on 2 hits and 0 BB and struck out 12

We should all pitch so poorly…

Jackie T.
11 years ago

If FIP is Fielding Independent Pitching, or a measure of how many runs a pitcher would allow regardless of how defense has played behind him, how can that number go into the negative?

danny c
11 years ago
Reply to  Jackie T.

the equation for FIP is “FIP = ((13*HR)+(3*(BB+HBP))-(2*K))/IP + constant”

so if kenley’s not allowed a homer or walk and posting more than a k per inning, it comes out to a negative number.

Stuck in a Slump
11 years ago
Reply to  Jackie T.

Extreme examples tend to break models. Since we’ll never see a pitcher actually pitch in a world without fielding being a factor it’s just a model. Kind of like Camelot.

Gaborchat
11 years ago

Seems like a weird model to use in fantasy. Jansen pitches in front of the Dodgers defense, why analyze independent of that piece of reality?

Stuck in a Slump
11 years ago

Because you never know who could get hurt or traded away. It can also point to regression, positive or negative. It’s just a measure of the skill that the pitcher actually possesses, which is something I want to know before I try to acquire or sell a player.

Mike W.
11 years ago

Curious about your take on Boxberger as well. Is this a true wait and see or are you concerned the tide could be changing in the Rays bullpen even though Boxberger has been pretty damn good overall this year?

Jon L.
11 years ago

Surprising, and not very sympathetic, that you were fed up with Greg Holland’s health.

Mike
11 years ago
Reply to  Jon L.

I also was surprised to see that. Didn’t realize the Bullpen Report writers felt so close to the action as to literally get worn down by the health of guys like Holland. May your weary soul find comfort, Ben

Jon
11 years ago
Reply to  Mike

I thought it was pretty clear he meant to write “wary”. Y’all commenters are ruthless.

KobraCola
11 years ago

“Looking back on our relief rankings, there are a few tweaks I would, including moving Britton up a few slots.”

I think you a word.

Atreyu Jones
11 years ago

Should I have any optimism that Parnell enters the closing picture for the Mets?

Mike
11 years ago
Reply to  Atreyu Jones

Uh, probably not

francis
11 years ago
Reply to  Mike

Only if Familia gets hurt, and Black and Mejia don’t make it back. Parnell is 3rd or 4th in line right now.

mattmaison
11 years ago

Bryan Morris sent to DL in MIA. Also, AJ Ramos blew a save. Carter Capps moving up fast with a 15.75 K/9.

I think Hunter Strickland is #3 in SF.

Justin Grimm pitching really well in CHI. Any talk of him moving to the rotation?

francis
11 years ago

If you had to keep either Rondon or Carson Smith, which one would you keep ?

mattmaison
11 years ago
Reply to  francis

I’d go with the hot hand, Carson Smith.

Jason B
11 years ago
Reply to  mattmaison

Agreed, that Cubs bullpen situation appears to be a quag. Just not worth shuffling or rostering 18 guys in the hopes that you picked the right one.

francis
11 years ago
Reply to  francis

Oh well. I decided to keep Rondon.

I just gave zero probability to Strop, Motte, or Soriano lasting longer than a week or two as closer, while I gave Rodney a better than zero chance of doing the same.

Smith could very well be better, but his competition is more accomplished.

Jason B
11 years ago
Reply to  francis

Methinks your zero probabilities (on Strop, Motte, and Soriano) were a tad low. Give it a shaky appearance or two by Rondon and they may be looking to one of their other 37 in-house options.

johnnycuff
11 years ago

shawn tolleson is just killin’ it out there. time to move him to green or are you worried about feliz coming back?

mattmaison
11 years ago
Reply to  johnnycuff

#TollesonToGreen

pbmax
11 years ago

Anyone figure out how Rondon lost the job? He’s been decent, no way Strop or Motte has been better. Weird

BranchRickey11937
11 years ago
Reply to  pbmax

My question too. In his four appearances prior to losing the closer’s job, Rondon pitched 4.1 innings, allowing no runs, 2 hits, 1 walk, and picking up a W and a S. Then he comes in on June 6, walks the leadoff hitter, and loses the closer’s job? That is definitely weird. The guy has 33 saves over the past calendar year. There must be more to the story than has been reported…..

Pouss-Pouss
11 years ago

Siegrist has been the primary setup man in St. Louis, and he’s not even on your chart.

Bob
11 years ago

I think Will Smith is ahead of Jeffress in MIL….for what it’s worth.

(I also see Strickland as #3 in SF – closer of the future)

mattmaison
11 years ago
Reply to  Bob

Jeffress was the 7th inning guy before Broxton was removed from the 8th and has been pitching in higher leverage situations than Smith.

Timbooya
11 years ago

So Andrew Miller just went DL on us… Betances will take over in the mean time. Should Betances’ innings load so far still be of concern, or will he pitch fewer innings as the closer and make us feel better?

Brian
11 years ago

I just hope Soriano can be one of those relievers useful in terms of ratios and strikeouts. Hopefully, he can snag a couple of vulture wins and saves along the way.