Bullpen Report: June 9, 2015
Sorry for the delay on this folks, but here’s a recap from last night…
• In case you felt that the Cubs bullpen situation wasn’t confusing enough, the Cubs decided to bring Rafael Soriano into the mix. We are less interested in the contract particulars here at the Bullpen Report and instead are curious how he will play out in Chicago’s pen. Soriano has yet to pitch this season so he will start off in the minors but speculation is he could be in Chicago around July 1st. Rafael Soriano wasn’t particularly thrilling last year for Nationals, which helps explain why he wasn’t picked up this offseason but a 3.19/3.08/3.92 ERA/FIP/xFIP pitching line last year is useful. It’s also similar to what Hector Rondon and Pedro Strop have done this year. When Soriano is ready the Cubs are looking at three similarly talented right-handed relievers with Jason Motte lingering as well. However, it should be noted that Soriano seemed to break down towards the end of last year. Whether that’s a sign of what to expect from Soriano moving forward or whether the time off should help him, we will have to wait and see to find out.
I’m inclined to think that while Soriano is toiling in the minors, one of Rondon, Strop or Motte will grab a hold on the ninth inning but maybe this is setting up to be a real committee.
• Carson Smith was called on for his second save of the year and although it wasn’t a clean inning, he secured the win for the Mariners. Fernando Rodney‘s struggles this year are well documented and closers with an ERA above six generally don’t last too long unless you are Shawn Chacon over a decade ago. Lloyd McClendon’s loyalty to Rodney and Experienced Closers is of course well known too. If Carson Smith keeps giving up homers in the ninth, Rodney could find himself back in his familiar role, even if Smith is the far better pitcher. As strange as this might sound, if you own Carson Smith and are able to trade him as a closer with a top tier stirkeout rate, you might be able to get great value out of him considering Rodney will always be in the rear window.
• Zach Britton recorded a 5-out save for the Orioles for his 16th save on the year. Britton is well known for his ridiculous worm killing ways (68.3% GB%) but he’s really had a breakout this season increasing his strikeouts and limiting his walks. Britton has a 1.14 SIERA in 2015 and it’s not really on the heels of any batted ball or LOB% luck. After 37 saves and a 1.65 ERA, Britton’s managed to improve and ranks as one of the best closers in the league. Looking back on our relief rankings, there are a few tweaks I would, including moving Britton up a few slots.
• Greg Holland got his 11th save of the year after pitching on three consecutive days. He also hit over 96 mph on his fastball and could be turning a corner. I was weary of Holland’s health when doing the ranks, and I still am a bit but I wouldn’t be too shocked to see him perform at more Holland-ian levels in the second half.
• Quick Hits: It wasn’t pretty but Axford now has 11 saves on the season. David Robertson gave up a hit and a strikeout for his 12th save. It wasn’t pretty again for Grilli either but he closed the game, a day after blowing the lead. K-Rod probably deserves more respect around these parts (1.23 ERA with above average strikeouts) and he picked up his 12th save on the year. With the Brewers firmly out of the race, he’s a name that should pop up in trade rumors as we approach July. Kenley Jansen continues to dominate upon his return from the DL, tossing a perfect ninth for save number seven and he now supports a -0.39 FIP. Woah.
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
When he's not focusing on every team's bullpen situation, Ben can be found blogging at Ben's Baseball Bias and on Twitter @BensBias
What is going on with the Rays closer situation? Why hasn’t Cash given McGee the recent save opportunities instead of Jepsen?
Good question. Perhaps it’s just because they decided to give McGee a certain number of innings, appearances, or days before using him as a closer “no matter what”, and they are sticking to the plan.
McGee hasn’t exactly pitched lights out, or well since his return. I am guessing that the sooner McGee rights his ship, the more save chances he’ll get.
McGee had one game where he pitched .1 of an inning and gave up 3 earned runs.
McGee had 8 other appearances where he pitched 6.2 innings gave up 0 runs on 2 hits and 0 BB and struck out 12
We should all pitch so poorly…
If FIP is Fielding Independent Pitching, or a measure of how many runs a pitcher would allow regardless of how defense has played behind him, how can that number go into the negative?
the equation for FIP is “FIP = ((13*HR)+(3*(BB+HBP))-(2*K))/IP + constant”
so if kenley’s not allowed a homer or walk and posting more than a k per inning, it comes out to a negative number.
Extreme examples tend to break models. Since we’ll never see a pitcher actually pitch in a world without fielding being a factor it’s just a model. Kind of like Camelot.
Seems like a weird model to use in fantasy. Jansen pitches in front of the Dodgers defense, why analyze independent of that piece of reality?
Because you never know who could get hurt or traded away. It can also point to regression, positive or negative. It’s just a measure of the skill that the pitcher actually possesses, which is something I want to know before I try to acquire or sell a player.
Curious about your take on Boxberger as well. Is this a true wait and see or are you concerned the tide could be changing in the Rays bullpen even though Boxberger has been pretty damn good overall this year?
Surprising, and not very sympathetic, that you were fed up with Greg Holland’s health.
I also was surprised to see that. Didn’t realize the Bullpen Report writers felt so close to the action as to literally get worn down by the health of guys like Holland. May your weary soul find comfort, Ben
I thought it was pretty clear he meant to write “wary”. Y’all commenters are ruthless.
Yes, I mistakenly wrote weary instead of wary.
His health concerns me, less so now.
I suppose I am also tired of his questionable health, hurting his ratios?
“Looking back on our relief rankings, there are a few tweaks I would, including moving Britton up a few slots.”
I think you a word.
Should I have any optimism that Parnell enters the closing picture for the Mets?
Uh, probably not
Only if Familia gets hurt, and Black and Mejia don’t make it back. Parnell is 3rd or 4th in line right now.
Doubtful, Familia is pitching great.
Bryan Morris sent to DL in MIA. Also, AJ Ramos blew a save. Carter Capps moving up fast with a 15.75 K/9.
I think Hunter Strickland is #3 in SF.
Justin Grimm pitching really well in CHI. Any talk of him moving to the rotation?
If you had to keep either Rondon or Carson Smith, which one would you keep ?
I’d go with the hot hand, Carson Smith.
Agreed, that Cubs bullpen situation appears to be a quag. Just not worth shuffling or rostering 18 guys in the hopes that you picked the right one.
Oh well. I decided to keep Rondon.
I just gave zero probability to Strop, Motte, or Soriano lasting longer than a week or two as closer, while I gave Rodney a better than zero chance of doing the same.
Smith could very well be better, but his competition is more accomplished.
Methinks your zero probabilities (on Strop, Motte, and Soriano) were a tad low. Give it a shaky appearance or two by Rondon and they may be looking to one of their other 37 in-house options.
shawn tolleson is just killin’ it out there. time to move him to green or are you worried about feliz coming back?
#TollesonToGreen
Anyone figure out how Rondon lost the job? He’s been decent, no way Strop or Motte has been better. Weird
My question too. In his four appearances prior to losing the closer’s job, Rondon pitched 4.1 innings, allowing no runs, 2 hits, 1 walk, and picking up a W and a S. Then he comes in on June 6, walks the leadoff hitter, and loses the closer’s job? That is definitely weird. The guy has 33 saves over the past calendar year. There must be more to the story than has been reported…..
Siegrist has been the primary setup man in St. Louis, and he’s not even on your chart.
I think Will Smith is ahead of Jeffress in MIL….for what it’s worth.
(I also see Strickland as #3 in SF – closer of the future)
Jeffress was the 7th inning guy before Broxton was removed from the 8th and has been pitching in higher leverage situations than Smith.
So Andrew Miller just went DL on us… Betances will take over in the mean time. Should Betances’ innings load so far still be of concern, or will he pitch fewer innings as the closer and make us feel better?
I just hope Soriano can be one of those relievers useful in terms of ratios and strikeouts. Hopefully, he can snag a couple of vulture wins and saves along the way.