Roto Riteup: June 4, 2015
Today is apparently hug your cat day. Given that this book currently graces my shelf, I guess I’ll go hug one of the cats.
On today’s agenda:
1. Lance McCullers dominates
2. Eduardo Rodriguez cruises
3. Javier Baez watch
4. Streaming Pitching Options
Lance McCullers dominates
My issues with McCullers largely stems from concerns about his control — though most 21-year-old hurlers are still in college or Single-A — and yesterday he tossed a gem. Going the full nine innings, McCullers sat down 11 Orioles batters on strikes without issuing a free pass. He allowed one run on four hits and now owns a 1.88 ERA to go with his 1.69 FIP. In a small sample size McCullers posted a modest 7.5 swinging strike rate prior to yesterday’s outing, and then coaxed 16 whiffs on 107 pitches, an encouraging tally for him to continue striking out batters. Make a move now before someone else picks him up, as he is on fantasy radars everywhere. He’s already owned in 69 percent of CBS formats, however he is available in over 70 percent of Yahoo! and ESPN leagues.
Eduardo Rodriguez cruises
Tangent time: My sophomore year of high school Spanish, we had to pick out a name. I picked the name Eduardo because of a telenovela character from a show we watched our first week. Anyways, another rookie hurler who saw big success yesterday, Rodriguez picked up his second win in as many games started. He struck out seven batters while inducing a dozen swinging strikes on 103 pitches. A .118 BABIP is helping fuel his 0.61 ERA, but it isn’t as if his 2.91 FIP is too rough either. The 22-year-old has gone at least seven innings in both of his major league starts thus far and seems to be earning his way into more than just a brief call up. Via NESN, the BoSox will be utilizing a six-man rotation at least temporarily. Justin Masterson is rehabbing in Double-A and should be back the big leagues before long, yet it doesn’t appear as though he’ll be taking Rodrigez’s rotation spot. One can find Rodriguez free to pick up in just 23 percent of CBS leagues, but he is able to be picked up in about 50 percent of ESPN or Yahoo! formats.
Javier Baez watch
Yesterday Baez went 1-for-3 with a walk in Triple-A and is up to a five game hitting streak. He also notched his first start at third base and has already played 15 games at second to go with 16 appearances at shortstop. Baez continues to punish minor league pitching to the tune of a .325/.397/.550 line before yesterday’s game, and at this point I’d be surprised if he doesn’t get a call up soon. He’s trimmed his strikeout rate from last season and is even running more. As Baez adds value to the big league club with his defensive versatility, count on him getting the nod shortly. Whether or not Addison Russell or Baez eventually takes plate appearances from Starlin Castro remains to be seen, but the Cubs can’t allow Castro to hit for an empty .267 with sub-par defense for long.
Streaming Pitching Options
If you enjoy streaming pitchers, tune into the Roto Riteup for recommendations each and every day.
A pitcher for today: Tommy Milone at BOS (Steven Wright)
It’s a pretty risky start given the ballpark, but the Red Sox haven’t hit southpaws particularly well thus far. Milone has had major league success in the past, and he is largely available as he can be streamed in more than 90 percent of the three major sites.
A pitcher for tomorrow: Chase Anderson vs NYM (Jon Niese)
Anderson got peppered in his last start, however I’m not giving up on him yet. I’d like to see a few more strikeouts and against the Mets and their 20.5 percent team strikeout rate, I think Anderson bounces back today. He’s available in over half of CBS leagues and more than 75 percent of Yahoo! and ESPN formats.
You can catch David spouting off about baseball, soccer, esports and other things by following him on twitter, @davidwiers.
Where would you have McCullers and E Rodriguez ranked ROS?
My SPs 4-6 are currently Alex Wood, Clay Buchholz, and the young Eduardo Rodriguez. I don’t have any room for an SP7, so I’d have to drop one of these gentlemen for McCullers. Thoughts?
heh, same question I was going to post. I also stashed Carlos Correa, since I am using Jimmy Rollins as shortstop.
I’d drop Wood, to be honest, for McCullers. McCullers is on the better team.
For me it’s between Salazar or Eduardo R and picking up and keeping McCullers.
I think I would still keep Wood over McCullers. A month or so ago, I probably would have agreed with you, but Wood has seemingly turned it around since then and is looking closer to the guy who was drafted pretty high.
Personally, I would lean Rodriguez between him and McCullers. Only because I think Rodriguez is slightly more polished as a pitcher at this point in his career. It’s a total coin flip for me though.
I’m not sure I’d drop anyone from that group…maybe Wood because his K’s are relatively limited.
Jumped at the chance to Add McCullers today. Great timing b/c Marlon Byrd just hit the DL so I didn’t have to agonize over who to drop.
Is the Baez/Russell taking time from Castro based on anything, or is it just speculation? I could see them displacing him if either produces at the big league leve, but Russell isn’t playing well enough to merit that right now and we’d need to see at least a few weeks (probably more) of Baez showing he’s made an adjustment to MLB pitchers before they even consider that. Plus, if Baez does light the world on fire, it would behoove the Cubs to leave Castro in place so they maintain his value in a trade.
My guess is, barring the Cubs trading for someone, that Baez could get called up and end up playing some 3B, with Bryant logging more time in LF. The Coghlan/Denorfia experiment in LF has been a disaster offensively.
Exactly. It’s no coincidence Bryant made his first start at LF yesterday and Baez made his first start at 3B. Bryant will see some time at LF, Baez will see some time at 3B (as well as possibly spot Russell and Castro of their off days). I think Bryant getting time in LF probably means they don’t make a move on their 40 man roster yet, and they let Schwarber develop some more with a promotion to AAA before a callup in September. It seems pretty clear that as the Cubs think Schwarber is ready, Castro has to be the one to get traded (hopefully) or benched. Then, maybe in September, I think you will ultimately see a defensive alignment of Baez at 2B, Russell at SS, Bryant at 3B, and Schwarber in LF, with maybe the occasional start at C.
Russell has actually looked very good since his promotion….especially for a 21 year old kid with very limited time in AA/AAA! His defense at second has been spotty and if they were smart they would move him back to short. He has struck out too much but most have either been on the swing and miss in the zone. A lot of the called third strike have been on the outside corner and technically balls…..he has a good eye but until he establishes himself he will not get those calls and needs to learn to expand the zone with two strikes and foul those balls off.
All in all, Russell has been a pleasant surprise and he looks like he will be the best of the bunch between Castro/Baez/Russell.
I agree that Russell is the best long-term option for the Cubbies at SS, but I don’t know how anyone could make the case that he’s performed objectively well. Sure, he’s performed well for a kid with very few high-level minor league ABs, but he’s got way too much swing-and-miss in his game and, once his BABIP returns to Earth, he’ll see his mid-200s AVG drop closer to the Mendoza line.
I think he’s their starting SS next year, but there’s just nothing in his game this season to make me think he (or Baez for that matter) would displace Castro at short in 2015.
The thing is…he is a 21 year old kid! He does have a lot of swing and miss in him right now, but that will change as the season progresses and as he adapts. The thing about his at bats that I love, and the reason I say he has done very well, is he doesn’t chase pitches out of the zone! That is HUGE! Unlike Baez who chases everything, and Castro to a lesser extent, Russell seems to have a very good idea of the strike zone….and he is 21 years old! He didn’t strike out a ton in the minors so I pretty comfortable saying that his strike outs will decrease significantly over the rest of the season and beyond.
As for the BABIP, I agree that as the drops so too will his average. However, the balls he does put in play are usually hit very hard so I think he will run a higher than average BABIP.
I couldn’t be more impressed with the kid to date.
Look I’m a big fan too, but we’ve got to be more realistic here.
He’s putting up roughly league average plate discipline and batted ball profile numbers, which as a 21-YO is pretty spectacular (especially at SS).
But that has very little to do with the point I raised above, which is that the author intimated that some combination of Russell and Baez could push Castro to the bench, which is not happening this season (short of a Joc Pederson-like explosion from Baez and Russell in the second half).
Russell is the guy to own in keeper leagues, but I think the best case for him this year is something like a .265/15/10 line (for the full seasons, not ROS). What’s more likely is what ZIPS and STEAMER project: .240/12/8. That – plus whatever Baez puts together – isn’t enough to displace Castro (however disappointing he may be).
Gotta disagree with you Billy. I think an infield that has Baez at 2b, Russell at ss, and Bryant at 3b is much better than one that includes the Castro of today. Castro’s defense is far from good and Russell would be an upgrade defensively over there. Baez would be an upgrade defensively over Russell at 2b. Offensively I just can’t see them missing Castro at all based on his performance THIS season. I use to be a Castro fan, but when you also take into account what they could potentially get in return for Castro…..it completely makes sense.
I’m not disagreeing with the idea that those three guys could make for a better INF than some combination of them that includes Castro. What I am disagreeing with is the idea that the Cubs will, in real life, bench Castro. He’s a 25-YO SS on a relatively cheap contract and his value is such that he should bring the club some important pieces in a trade.
If that’s the direction the Cubs elect to go (trading Castro), they can’t demote him to a part-time role in-season and expect to recoup the same package they’d get for him now, or in the offseason. Plus, this could all be moot anyway – Baez hasn’t shown anything at the MLB-level and while Russell hasn’t been anything close to a disaster, he also hasn’t been performing at a level that would merit benching Castro.
Again, Russell is clearly the guy to own in a keeper/dynasty format. But, barring a total collapse from Castro and an unforeseen explosion from both (not just one) of Baez and Russell, Starlin isn’t going to the bench this year. Even if they both put up eye-popping offensive numbers, I think they’d just move Bryant to the OF and play Baez at 3B, Russell at 2B, and Starlin at SS. They can trade Castro in the offseason for pitching reinforcements and shift those guys back around (with Schwarber presumably in LF).
Gotcha. Maybe I didn’t read everything clearly enough. There is no way the Cubs will bench or demote Castro as that will only kill his trade value.
Speculation on my part.
I got some tweets regarding my thoughts on the Cubs infield so I figured I’d weigh in.
It’s crazy that Castro is still just 25. If he gets shopped, I’d expect quite a few teams to be interested in him.
Everyone usually seems to think that the Cubs/Mets are a match made in heaven when it comes to shortstops and pitchers. Assuming the Mets have interest in Castro (and I don’t think they do) then maybe something involving DeGrom and Plawecki could get done. Cubs also need a long-term answer behind the plate (assuming Schwarber gets moved to the outfield.
Otherwise maybe they can ship him off to Toronto for one of their young pitchers.
Between Cameron Maybin and Billy Burns, who do you see being more valuable ROS? Both guys are surging right now, Burns with more speed and Maybin with a bit more power.
Burns, but it’s really close. Speed doesn’t slump like power can.
McCullers was outstanding yesterday. Watched the game vs. the Orioles and he had all of his pitches working. The Orioles are having trouble scoring runs, but he would’ve dominated plenty of teams with that stuff. In my keeper league, he was snatched up as soon as he was called up.
Question for the cognoscenti on these comment boards: With Strasburg, Smyly and Dickerson hurt, and Hughes’ fastball velocity going down almost with every start, my team in a 16 team points league is a mess going nowhere.
It is a sluggers league. Only .2 deduction for Ks. The Trumbo trade to the Mariners opens the door at some point for O’Brien to move into one of the corner OF spots. Should I stash him on my prospect list? He’s demonstrated more power this year than last and would be hitting in a hitter’s park, this year or next.
Thanks for the advice.
I’m not wild about low walk, high strikeout guys, but given his power and playing time, I’d stash him in 16-teamer.
With Wieters back tomorrow is Caleb Joseph droppable in 2-catcher leagues? He’s been great but I can’t carry him w/o getting PAs. Might roll the dice on Salty
Yep, I’d let Joseph go. Salty just got named the starter going forward, though he’ll be eased into the role.
Hmm wonder if the addition of Castillo in the trade will complicate this.
I have been offered Dexter Fowler for Starlin Castro. My other SS eligible player is Kang so I do have decent depth at SS and could use some extra OF help with Kole Calhoun scuffling a bit lately and Wil Myers being an unknown commodity regarding the health of his wrist going forward. Do we see Castro turning it on going forward where I should hold him and try and flip him later for a potentially higher impact bat or is this a fair trade?
I’d take Fowler, assuming you can handle the AVG loss.
Would any of you trade Kris Bryant for Joc Pederson?
Also have Arenado and Moustakas at 3B, with Duda/Belt/Tex at 1B. Two are sitting every day. Outfield in a 5 OF league is much shallower – McCutch, Brantley, Blackmon, JD Martinez, Jay Bruce.
or should I just wait it out and hope Bryant gets OF eligibility?
Reply fail on my part, sorry. See below!
I don’t think so. As much as I like lineup flexibility, and 3B eligibility, I’d stick with Pederson. His steals make the difference.
I enjoy that the BP Report last night was dated 2016 and today’s Roto Riteup was dated 2014.
Yeah, I’m an idiot.