Bullpen Report: August 3, 2017

• Pitching in the top of the ninth inning in a tie game, Wade Davis allowed homers to Paul Goldschmidt and J.D. Martinez and ended up taking his first loss for the Cubs. It’s tough to blame any pitcher for allowing long balls to those two (Goldy had two more in the game) but he’s been a little off of late, for him. Davis hasn’t been blowing games but since July, he has thrown eight innings with four earned runs and a 9/7 K/BB. After tonight’s game, Davis has a 9.1% HR/FB which is below average but he’s always been pretty terrific at home run suppression. He’s missing bats as well which is a good sign but his 11.6% BB% would represent a career high. I’m certainly picking nits here as Davis still qualifies as a fantastic option for saves but if I was making a deadline move I would be slightly weary to pay top dollar for Davis over others in his tier.

Of more concern however might be Carl Edwards Jr. who walked the only batters he faced in the eighth. Those guys happened to be Goldschmidt and Martinez, so again, it’s tough to blame the pitcher here but control has been an issue of his of late. After tonight’s outing, Edwards still supports a fantastic 13.19 K/9 but it’s paired with a 5.86 BB/9 which is a little troublesome. If Edwards can’t find the strike zone and keeps allowing free passes at that rate, an untimely homer or two could do some damage to your ratios and with Justin Wilson in Chicago, he’s likely not the guy to own if something were to happen to Davis.

• We have heard the Hildenberger calls and I have added him to the grid in Minnesota. Their situation is so red that really anyone could claim it if they put up some consistent zeros but Trevor Hildenberger might have the most talent in the group so he’s worth keeping an eye on. He’s only thrown 17.1 innings across 10 games in his major league career but he’s missing a lot of bats without many walks (19/3 K/BB) which is something he’s done throughout his time in the mionrs.  Eric Longenhagen ranked him as the 18th best prospect in the Twins system and  in 30.2 innings in AAA this year Hildenberger had a 2.05 ERA and a 27.8% strikeout rate and 6.4% walk percentage.

In spite of all that, he’s not the closer which could now be Matt Belisle. Ervin Santana finished what he started yesterday but Belisle was warming up in the ninth, indicating he’s first in line for the next opportunity that arises. Taylor Rogers, Hildenberger and Tyler Duffey could all be considered in the late innings as well but consider Belisle in the lead, for now.

• I’m sorry for doubting you, Fernando Rodney! Rodney saved his 25th game tonight and since his rough April he’s pitched to a 1.82/2.12/3.65 ERA/FIP/xFIP line closing 17/20 saves. The 40 year old is not as good as that line might suggest and he isn’t the most talented guy in the pen but he’s closing games on a solid team and should continue to rack up decent saves moving forward.

• Corey Knebel allowed two baserunners but also struck out a pair for his 20th save.  Knebel’s 42.4% stirkeout rate is second only behind Craig Kimbrel and although he doesn’t have pinpoint control his 28.1% K-BB% ranks 11th in the league. Whatever your preferred measurement, Knebel likely ranks among the best in the league.

• Matt Bush entered the game in the eighth with a 4-1 lead a threw a scoreless frame with two strikeouts and could be moving his way back in the to the saves situation. Keone Kela, Jose Leclerc and Alex Claudio are currently in a committee of sorts but with Bush throwing 6 consecutive scoreless appearances it’s possible he enters the fray again. Jose Leclerc had thrown in the previous two games so he was likely unavailable. Claudio is getting more opportunities than the other committee members including tonight where converted his fifth save. Leclerc has traditional closer quality stuff but his 15.7% walk percentage leaves a lot to be desired. One could say the same for Claudio and his 15.7% strikeout percentage though too. Saves are saves so Claudio is the one to own right now but I’d prefer Kela and Leclerc for their strikeouts considering Claudio could be one poor outing away from leaving the committee.

Closer Grid:

	Closer	First	Second	DL/Minors
ARI	Fernando Rodney	Archie Bradley	David Hernandez
ATL	Arodys Vizcaino	Jim Johnson	Jose Ramirez
BAL	Zach Britton	Mychal Givens	Brad Brach
BOS	Craig Kimbrel	Addison Reed	Matt Barnes	Carson Smith
CHC	Wade Davis	Justin Wilson	Carl Edwards Jr.
CWS	Tyler Clippard	Gregory Infante	Jake Petricka	Nate Jones
CIN	Raisel Iglesias	Michael Lorenzen	Drew Storen
CLE	Cody Allen	Joe Smith	Bryan Shaw	Andrew Miller
COL	Greg Holland	Pat Neshek	Adam Ottavino
DET	Shane Greene	Alex Wilson	Daniel Stumpf
HOU	Ken Giles	Chris Devenski	Luke Gregerson	Will Harris
KC	Kelvin Herrera	Joakim Soria	Brandon Maurer
LAA	Bud Norris	Cam Bedrosian	Blake Parker	Huston Street
LAD	Kenley Jansen	Tony Watson	Pedro Baez
MIA	Brad Ziegler	Junichi Tazawa	Drew Steckenrider	Kyle Barraclough
MIL	Corey Knebel	Anthony Swarzak	Jacob Barnes
MIN	Matt Belisle	Taylor Rogers	Trevor Hildenberger	Glen Perkins
NYM	A.J. Ramos	Paul Sewald	Jerry Blevins	Jeurys Familia
NYY	Aroldis Chapman	Dellin Betances	David Robertson
OAK	Blake Treinen	Ryan Dull	Santiago Casilla
PHI	Hector Neris	Luis Garcia	Jesen Therrien
PIT	Felipe Rivero	Juan Nicasio	Joaquin Benoit
STL	Trevor Rosenthal	Brett Cecil	Seung Hwan Oh
SD	Brad Hand	Kirby Yates	Phil Maton
SF	Sam Dyson	Hunter Strickland	George Kontos	Mark Melancon
SEA	Edwin Diaz	David Phelps	Nick Vincent
TB	Alex Colome	Tommy Hunter	Steve Cishek
TEX	Alex Claudio	Jose Leclerc	Keone Kela
TOR	Roberto Osuna	Ryan Tepera	Joe Biagini	Danny Barnes
WSH	Sean Doolittle	Brandon Kintzler	Ryan Madson	Koda Glover

[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]