Bullpen Report: August 3, 2017
• Pitching in the top of the ninth inning in a tie game, Wade Davis allowed homers to Paul Goldschmidt and J.D. Martinez and ended up taking his first loss for the Cubs. It’s tough to blame any pitcher for allowing long balls to those two (Goldy had two more in the game) but he’s been a little off of late, for him. Davis hasn’t been blowing games but since July, he has thrown eight innings with four earned runs and a 9/7 K/BB. After tonight’s game, Davis has a 9.1% HR/FB which is below average but he’s always been pretty terrific at home run suppression. He’s missing bats as well which is a good sign but his 11.6% BB% would represent a career high. I’m certainly picking nits here as Davis still qualifies as a fantastic option for saves but if I was making a deadline move I would be slightly weary to pay top dollar for Davis over others in his tier.
Of more concern however might be Carl Edwards Jr. who walked the only batters he faced in the eighth. Those guys happened to be Goldschmidt and Martinez, so again, it’s tough to blame the pitcher here but control has been an issue of his of late. After tonight’s outing, Edwards still supports a fantastic 13.19 K/9 but it’s paired with a 5.86 BB/9 which is a little troublesome. If Edwards can’t find the strike zone and keeps allowing free passes at that rate, an untimely homer or two could do some damage to your ratios and with Justin Wilson in Chicago, he’s likely not the guy to own if something were to happen to Davis.
• We have heard the Hildenberger calls and I have added him to the grid in Minnesota. Their situation is so red that really anyone could claim it if they put up some consistent zeros but Trevor Hildenberger might have the most talent in the group so he’s worth keeping an eye on. He’s only thrown 17.1 innings across 10 games in his major league career but he’s missing a lot of bats without many walks (19/3 K/BB) which is something he’s done throughout his time in the mionrs. Eric Longenhagen ranked him as the 18th best prospect in the Twins system and in 30.2 innings in AAA this year Hildenberger had a 2.05 ERA and a 27.8% strikeout rate and 6.4% walk percentage.
In spite of all that, he’s not the closer which could now be Matt Belisle. Ervin Santana finished what he started yesterday but Belisle was warming up in the ninth, indicating he’s first in line for the next opportunity that arises. Taylor Rogers, Hildenberger and Tyler Duffey could all be considered in the late innings as well but consider Belisle in the lead, for now.
• I’m sorry for doubting you, Fernando Rodney! Rodney saved his 25th game tonight and since his rough April he’s pitched to a 1.82/2.12/3.65 ERA/FIP/xFIP line closing 17/20 saves. The 40 year old is not as good as that line might suggest and he isn’t the most talented guy in the pen but he’s closing games on a solid team and should continue to rack up decent saves moving forward.
• Corey Knebel allowed two baserunners but also struck out a pair for his 20th save. Knebel’s 42.4% stirkeout rate is second only behind Craig Kimbrel and although he doesn’t have pinpoint control his 28.1% K-BB% ranks 11th in the league. Whatever your preferred measurement, Knebel likely ranks among the best in the league.
• Matt Bush entered the game in the eighth with a 4-1 lead a threw a scoreless frame with two strikeouts and could be moving his way back in the to the saves situation. Keone Kela, Jose Leclerc and Alex Claudio are currently in a committee of sorts but with Bush throwing 6 consecutive scoreless appearances it’s possible he enters the fray again. Jose Leclerc had thrown in the previous two games so he was likely unavailable. Claudio is getting more opportunities than the other committee members including tonight where converted his fifth save. Leclerc has traditional closer quality stuff but his 15.7% walk percentage leaves a lot to be desired. One could say the same for Claudio and his 15.7% strikeout percentage though too. Saves are saves so Claudio is the one to own right now but I’d prefer Kela and Leclerc for their strikeouts considering Claudio could be one poor outing away from leaving the committee.
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
When he's not focusing on every team's bullpen situation, Ben can be found blogging at Ben's Baseball Bias and on Twitter @BensBias
It’s worth noting that, according to the Indians TV broadcast, Francona has said that he may be using Cody Allen similarly to how he used Andrew Miller, depending on situation, while Miller is on the DL. This would leave Joe Smith and Bryan Shaw in position to pick up saves, so if you’re desperate for them, it might be worth a look.
This is good info, thanks!
Happened after this column was posted but Cam Bedrosian was brought into the 6th inning tonight in a 4-3 game (angels trailing). That doesn’t sound a whole lot like closer in waiting.
It’s definitely Blake Parker now.
http://www.therotosaurus.com/closer-depth-chart/
Yep, you look correct here, we will have the chart updated for tonight.
Would you raver have Belisle, Ziegler, Claudio, or Norris?
Norris easily. I don’t see Belisle taking over in MIN, Ziegler isn’t very good, and Claudio won’t hold that job the rest of the season with Kela Leclerc and Bush there
Yeah. Has to be Norris. Bird in the hand, as he’s had the job for months, and he’s also perhaps the best pitcher of the bunch.
I would take Norris. Belisle is in the lead for saves because he was warming up for the ninth, not the highest of praise. Claudio and Ziegler are getting saves but neither is particularly good or the best in their respective pens.
Just to offer a counter perspective …
First things first, of those three, only Norris helps your strikeout ratio (all stats are ratios in innings-capped leagues.) But he’s been struggling for quite a long time now and may be out of a job soon.
I hate arbitrary end points, and so excuse me for throwing this out there, but if you split Norris’s season in two, from May 21 to today, his walk rate’s 13.8%, his walk minus strikeout is also 13.8, and he’s allowing 1.69 HRs per 9–for a FIP of 4.98. Which is to say, he’s been bad for a long time, and his early-season success might’ve been an aberration.
Closers are not just saves machines. Gotta avoid the so-called Focusing Illusion to see closers are ultimately just pitchers. Many can help you in all five categories. Trevor Rosenthal, for instance, easily bests guys like Jeff Samardzija and Jose Quintana for wins per inning pitched (1 per 16 v 1 per 23.9 and 1 per 21.4 respectively.) Those are freebie stats, not able to be easily anticipated, of course, but an unsettled situation plus a good reliever who can throw multiple innings like Claudio, is the right set of circumstances to vulture wins. So to know who’s best for you, it really depends on your league’s rules and what you need.
Strictly saves: Ziegler. Mattingly prefers defined roles, and Z’s competition is weakest among the three. Strikeouts: Norris. Wins, ERA and WHIP: Claudio.
Food for thought, Mobsters.
The Bullpen Report has been outstanding in the last few weeks, in a very important time of the season with all the trades taking place. Keep up the good work.
Wade Davis has a 4.58/4.17 ERA/FIP over his last 20 appearances. K’s are good over that time at 31.9% but BB are way up to 13.2%. But more worrisome is his velo. He’s at 94.3 for the year which is down about 1.6 MPH from 2 years ago and he has dipped below 94 in 3 of his last 4 appearances and 4 of his last 7. Of Davis’ 7 worst months by velo since becoming a reliever in late 2013, 1 was last October and 5 of them are this year (the other was April 2016).
All good information. These problems aren’t glaring but it’s worth noting. If his next few appearances are more of the same then I would be legitimately worried, especially given his cranky forearm from last year.
This, and how he helps in all other categories besides saves, is why I’ve either stuck with Wilson or picked up Wilson in leagues he’s been dropped. Wouldn’t be surprised if the Cubs DL or spell Davis just as a precautionary measure.
No mention of Shane Greene locking down three saves in three days this week? 🙁
I have no doubt it will be covered in tonight’s Report but the Nats brought in Kintzler in the 7th with 1 out and 2 runs already in with pinch-hitter (Happ (B)), Jay (L) and Bryant (R) due up. Madson then got the 8th with Rizzo (L), Contreras (R), Zobrist (B) and Schwarber (L) due up. Doolittle got the 9th with Heyward (L), Baez (R), and Happ (B). He got out of it but next was going to be a pinch-hitter (has to be either Almora (R) or Avila (L) since they are the only ones left).
There was some speculation that Dusty might play matchups but kind of hard to tell anything from that lineup.
(Doolittle owner here, hoping he keeps the 9th. . . .)