Bullpen Report: April 23, 2013
• Colin said it last night, and I don’t really have all that much to add so, “All aboard the Edward Mujica bandwagon!” Adam Wainwright couldn’t quite complete what he started and Mujica came on for the two out save, his third of the year. I’d be interested in betting some gummy bears or Jelly Beans on Trevor Rosenthal finishing the year with the ninth inning role but sometimes a pitcher can just run away with the job once he gets a hold of it and for now, Mujica has that opportunity. Mujica has always had fantastic control (career 4.1% BB%) and this year he’s striking out a few more batters than he has in years past (28.6% K%) on the heels of an increased SwStr% of 14.9%, which would be a career high. Small sample size warnings obviously apply, but if Mujica maintains any improvement in missing bats, it will go a long way in cementing him not only as the closer in St. Louis, but a particularly good one for fantasy.
• Viva Papa Grande! I’ll admit that I didn’t think the Tigers were going to have Jose Valverde closing games in Detroit anytime soon (if at all) when news first broke that he was signing with Detroit, but clearly I was wrong as Valverde will now be used as the teams closer. Valverde posted a decent 3.78 ERA last year but was a little lucky with the long ball, with an unsustainable 3.3% HR/FB%. His production last year and what we can expect in 2013 is probably better seen through the lens of his 5.01 xFIP. Valverde still threw the ball pretty hard last year (93.4 mph) but batters just weren’t missing much as Valverde posted his lowest SwStr% of his career (7.1%). Without good control (career 3.78 BB/9) and an inability to get swings and misses at a league average rate it’s hard to suggest Valverde will be all that good in 2013. Still, as a teams closer, Valverde is a must own.
• The Cubs brought in Carlos Marmol for the save tonight and naturally, he blew it. Unnaturally, the ghost of Kevin Gregg came in and recorded the save in 10th inning. Yes, that Kevin Gregg. James Russell had pitched 2.1 innings over the last two games and although Dale Sveum said he won’t use Russell as the team’s (primary) closer, I wonder if he would have gotten the nod in the 10th if he was fresh. Russell is a lefty but he’s also yet to allow a run this season with a 9.0 K/BB while Shawn Camp (5.59 FIP) and Marmol (6.55 FIP) have struggled mightily. Kevin Gregg is, well, Kevin Gregg but at this point it would be hard to be surprised to see him jump right into the meat of the closer competition. I’ll wait to hear word from Chicago before updating the Cubs Grid, but consider Gregg a decent speculative add if you are desperate for saves or just have a fondness for pitchers with eye gear.
• Fernando Rodney allowed five earned runs in 2012. In 2013 Rodney has now allowed four, including one tonight against the Yankees. Before 2012, Rodney’s career BB/9 was 4.9, last year that dropped to 1.81 and this year it’s 8.1. I’m not sounding the alarm on Rodney quite yet, but his control is certainly something to look out for. If it doesn’t improve and Rodney reverts closer to his pre-2012 form, it’s unlikely that he’ll hold onto the job all year. Joel Peralta is worth owning for his ratios and with Rodney’s seemingly under the radar problems thus far this year, I’d take a flier on Peralta.
Closer Grid:
[Green light, yellow light, red light: the colors represent the volatility of the bullpen order.]
When he's not focusing on every team's bullpen situation, Ben can be found blogging at Ben's Baseball Bias and on Twitter @BensBias
I really think you’re wrong on Mujica. He pounds the zone, has the splitter working, gets some strikeouts tied to zero walks, and induces a lot of ground balls. Rosenthal’s arsenal is more electric, okay, but what has Mujica done wrong since joining the Cardinals? Watch him pitch, he looks very good.
Apologies if the tone makes it seem like I dislike Mujica. I actually think he’s a very solid reliever. However, someone with Rosenthal’s pedigree and stuff generally doesn’t avoid the ninth inning all year.
Even if you’re understandably enthralled with Rosenthal’s arsenal, Mujica appears as if he’d have to fumble the job away. I think Mujica pitches well enough all year to retain the role.
Ryan Franklin and Jason Motte were in a similar situation a few years ago under LaRussa, and there are countless other examples. Nobody liked Franklin as the closer, but he just wouldn’t fumble the job away despite pressure from Motte. I just think it’s wiser to approach it with a “Mujica has to play his way out of the role” mindset than a “Rosenthal can play his way into the role” mindset.
You didn’t update the grid for Papa Grande……Kind of defeats the purpose no?
Sorry about that, thanks for the reminder. It should be updated now!
As was discussed last night, the Marlins one should probably be updated.
Jon Rauch is not the guy to own if Cishek falters.
I understand they’re not a Major League team, but we might as well get it right.
Rauch/Webb should probably be replaced with Ramos/Dunn.
Thanks, I’ll take a look into this.
Do you think Fujikawa gets the job back when he comes off the DL? Dale said that if they haven’t settled on a closer by then, Fujikawa could get the job back.
The Cubs mess is so bad I think Fujikawa gets it back. There isn’t all that much time left until he comes back for someone to run away with the job.
im sick of putz blowing saves. is papa better than putz?
thanks!
Putz > Papa Grande. But, I don’t love Putz — consider Hernandez a good trade target as it likely wouldn’t cost much and he has a decent chance of getting the job at some point, especially given Putz’s somewhat shoddy injury history. However, Heath Bell can be pretty sneaky.
No mention of Rondon being called up yesterday either? Should I snap him up as an upside play for if/when Valverde falters??
Benoit didn’t really lose the job as much as Valverde just came and conquered without throwing a single pitch. Rondon’s a good enough speculative add, because I do think Valverde won’t hold the job all season but I’d bet on Benoit getting the nod in that situation. However, if Rondon is lights out, that obviously changes the equation as the Tigers liked him enough preseason to name him closer.
It seems strange that Rondon gets called up at the same time they name Valverde the closer. Almost like they want Rondon there when Valverde fails, so they can give it to him next and let him run with it. No more debating about Benoit or Coke or whoever. Rondon is up, so he’s next! Right?
You guys are using logic when trying to breakdown the Tigers bullpen, when instead you need to think like Leyland.
As a Detroiter who remembers the Todd Jones years (when we had better young arms, like Zumaya) I can tell you Rondon WILL NOT get an opportunity this year.
The Tigers DID NOT like Rondon to close this preseason. Dombrowski wanted Rondon this spring, not Leyland. Leyland does not want to manage a bullpen, he wants a veteran he can throw out there every 9th inning.
Valverde is the closer. If he fails, Benoit likely goes back. If that fails, they’ll make a trade for a closer around the AS Break. Hell, even Alburqurque would likely get a shot before Rondon. Rondon is not in the equation.
Thanks again for the reply.
any of these guys better over JJ putz?
can you please rank these closers in my FA pool:
street, perkins, perez, parnell, cishek
Thank you!
I normally wouldn’t pick the lefty but I like Perkins the best out of those. I’d go Perkins, Perez, Street, Parnell, Cishek.
I’d say that Perkins/Perez/Street are on par with Putz. Perkins seemingly has less of a threat behind him but given the last few years it’s tough to rank those guys higher than JJ. Putz has been one of the better closers for a while, but he’s obviously a little brittle.
thanks alot!!
I’d go with Perkins, hands down. I see warts with all of the other guys, and Perkins is entering his third consecutive season of excellent relief pitching with peripherals that support it after washing out as a starter.
Inside source tells me Francisco may be inserted right back into closer role to build his trade value before the deadline.
Parnell hasn’t been mentioned much on these pages but he’s been incredible: 6.2 IP, 1ER, 9K, 1 BB. His FIP is 0.35
That seems like an interesting idea in theory but if Parnell is pitching well, wouldn’t it be completely transparent to other teams? If Francisco plays well in the 8th innings he should become mildly attractive to teams regardless if he’s closing as he already has the “closing experience” under his belt.
I don’t expect the Mets to be competing for a playoff spot necessarily in July, but they will try to be competitive. I’m struggling to see how that scenario plays out if Parnell is pitching like he has thus far.
Yeah, I agree with that logic but some teams (Tigers?) are still willing to pay for the “proven closer,” just ask the A’s, they seem to flip a guy with saves on his résumé for added value every couple of years.