Building a 2021 $251 NFBC Offense, A Review

Last week, I reviewed my imaginary cheapie NFBC hitting rosters, including the $14 offense, and the offense composed of hitters not even bought in auctions. Today, let’s now review the incredible $251 offense I built. This exercise was probably even harder, as it’s more difficult to differentiate between top three round values than it is to pick out the best of the worst. Let’s see how this roster ended up performing.

I’ve never been more embarrassed. My $251 bought me an astounding $116 of value. That seems nearly impossible to do! It’s like the worst possible outcome. I’m honestly not sure there was a worse way to spend $251. An amazing four hitters didn’t just fail to earn their average auction value (AAV), but earned negative value! Only four hitters earned any sort of profit, and two of those four profited less than a buck. Only one hitter profited by a double digit amount, while four hitters lost double digit amounts given the wayyyyy into the negative their earnings were. I’m not sure how many other ways I could describe how bad this roster turned out! Naturally, I was crushed by everything under the sun — injuries, suspensions, and minor league demotions.

My best pick, and really, only good pick, was Paul Goldschmidt. He earned about $11 more than his AAV, as his home run power rebounded somewhat off last year’s low, and he decided to steal more bases than he had from 2018-2020 combined. He was a perfect “buy established veteran cheaper off a disappointing short 2020 season” target who came through.

Aaron Judge profited a couple of bucks, but I’m surprised it wasn’t even more as he stayed healthy and recorded the most PAs since his first full season in 2017. The big change this season was his improved strikeout rate, which set a new career best. As usual, his performance when on the field is never in question, so it remains a matter of health.

Ozzie Albies and Christian Vazquez earned just barely more than their AAV, essentially performing as expected. I’m surprised that a 30/20 season from Albies wasn’t enough to earn him a much greater profit. Despite just six homers, Vazquez’s eight steals were enough to earn him what fantasy owners paid.

Mike Yastrzemski likely would have at least broken even for his owners if he hadn’t missed time to injury, but it would have been a close call. It was all about the BABIP for him, as it plummeted to just .254, bringing his batting average well below expectations.

Now onto the losers. The biggest bust by virtue of his high price was undoubtedly Adalberto Mondesi who once again battled injuries and finished with just 136 plate appearances. It’s too bad, because a 600 PA pace would have put him at an absurd 26 homers and 66 steals! It’s why he’s been so highly coveted in fantasy leagues despite his inability to stay healthy. The Royals made remarks that next year, he’s not going to play every day in an effort to keep him healthy. It’s going to be a tough situation, especially for weekly leaguers. A lot will depend on his cost in your league, but even in 500 PAs, he could be a fantasy force.

Marcell Ozuna battled injury and was arrested, which got him placed on administrative leave (I sure know how to pick ’em!). But before that, he had a disappointing 208 plate appearances.

Moving along to the pair of minor league demotions who were big busts this year — Keston Hiura and Victor Robles. Hirua just couldn’t tame the strikeouts. While they had been an issue previously, they hadn’t become an alarming situation until this season. His strikeout rate surged even higher to 39.1%, while his SwStk% was a ridiculous 23.7%. Previously, Hiura was able to offset his contact issues with lots of power. But even the power went missing this year, as his HR/FB rate dropped to just 10% and his ISO fell to just .133. It led to just a .250 wOBA, which was enough for the Brewers to give up on him this season. Now his future is up in the air despite the fact he’s just 25 years old. With his power and speed potential, you shouldn’t give up on him just yet, but he’ll have to fight his way back and possibly dramatically improve his contact skills before getting a chance.

On the other hand, Robles’ struggles are much more baffling to me. His walk rate jumped to a career best, his strikeout rate came right back down after last season’s spike, and he hit line drives at a far above league average clip. While his BABIP did fall to a career worst .271, a big issue here was the complete loss of any semblance of power. He homered just twice for a puny 2.4% HR/FB rate and his ISO stuck below .100 for the second straight year. We knew he wasn’t a big power guy, but power this limited is usually reserved for slap-hitting speedsters who steal 40 bases a year (you know, the Juan Pierres and Dee Gordons). That now makes it over 550 PAs in the last two seasons with a wOBA of about .274. It’s not surprise the Nationals lost patience. Robles is still just 24 though so it would be shocking if he wasn’t given another chance at regular playing time.

Finally, a chunk of veterans in J.T. Realmuto, Matt Chapman, Anthony Rizzo, Charlie Blackmon, and Eddie Rosario failed to earn their cost. Rosario missed time to injury, but was disappointing before that, and then surged with the Braves. The others had no such excuse. I’m surprised at how quickly Blackmon has fallen, but maybe age has taken its toll. Now with two straight disappointing fantasy seasons, he’ll probably come at a price that makes him a potentially good value. For as long as he remains a regular playing half his games at Coors Field, I’m interested.