Breakout Breakdown: First Base
Last spring, I wrote up a group of first basemen who I saw as valuable picks in the draft. Let’s review the initial projection, see what happened, and grade these suckers!
1B
Wil Myers | CIN
- My Projection: .265/.343/.493, 24 HR, 66 R, 71 RBI, 7 SB in 505 PA
- Final Result: .189/.257/.283, 3 HR, 11 R, 12 RBI, 2 SB in 141 PA
What Happened: OK, we’re starting off hot!! Well, hot vomit. Let’s not beat around the bush, this is a massive F-. Myers completely flamed out and was eventually run out of Cincinnati altogether as they called up a bevy of premium prospects, most of whom clicked upon arrival. He managed a meager 43 wRC+ in his tiny sample and was let go in late-June.
Why I Liked Him: I knew he was risky coming in because of his health profile and the fact that he had played just 77 games in 2022, but I didn’t expect a full-scale meltdown. I was betting on the health coming together for at least 130 games and hoped that his 110 career wRC+ could play up in Cincinnati’s excellent ballpark. I was hoping that even a downside playing time outlook of 70-90 games or so would still yield league average or better work, but it just didn’t happen.
What’s Next: I’m not 100% out, but it will obviously depend on his landing spot and playing time outlook. His price is quite literally nothing right now with a 723 ADP as he’s only been drafted 4 of 23 drafts so far. I’m not taking him unless he lands somewhere as I don’t expect his price to rise all that much even in a friendly landing spot.
Triston Casas | BOS
- My Projection: .255/.355/.466, 24 HR, 64 R, 72 RBI, 3 SB in 560 PA
- Final Result: .263/.367/.490, 24 HR, 66 R, 65 RBI, 0 SB in 502 PA
What Happened: I showed my amazing humility by dropping that Myers one first before showcasing this A+ gem! “So humble!” “So brave!” Thank you for saying that. What do you mean I typed that myself and just put quotes around it pretending they were quotes from someone? This might end up being the best of the entire bunch and he’s a good lesson in not making a definitive statement on a player too quickly. He took just a .193/.308/.359 line into June before reeling off a .299/.397/.556 line over the final four months with 18 HR and 49 RBIs (34/93 full season paces).
Why I Liked Him: Loved the big-time power and the fact that it came with a strong plate profile (25% K, 15% BB). His underlying skills said he was a hold during the early month struggles, too. I understand if you moved on in shallower leagues because you have to churn the backend of your rosters a bit more, but those who stayed patient were handsomely rewarded.
What’s Next: He’s up to pick-106 in early drafts, slotting as the 10th 1B off the board. That’s pricy, but all the skills I liked last year are there and now we have 597 career PA of a 128 wRC+ flexing those skills. He has .270-30-100 upside.
Dominic Smith | WAS
- My Projection: .265/.327/.447, 17 HR, 59 R, 66 RBI, 1 SB in 517 PA
- Final Result: .254/.326/.366, 12 HR, 57 R, 46 RBI, 1 SB in 586 PA
What Happened: Honestly, he was fine. I overstated the return of his power. I need to let go of his 2019-20 power (.271 ISO in 396 PA) and accept this new reality in the low-.100s. Outside of that, everything else was fine, but of course that isn’t a whole lot for fantasy.
Why I Liked Him: Obviously 2019 was the Rabbit Ball year so I knew he wasn’t getting all the way back, but I was shooting for an upper-.100s ISO. He was a super-cheap pick up and had some value in NL-only formats. This feels like an easy C+. He wasn’t fundamentally altering your outcome and certainly wasn’t hurting you.
What’s Next: Probably more of the same, a CI/UT fill-in for deep leagues. His range of outcomes still offers some upside, but probably via AVG more than HR at this point.
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Not too bad overall. An F, an A, and C. At least you weren’t stuck with Myers and could move on relatively easily. Conversely, you did have to remain patient with Casas and in some shallower leagues, I can see why someone would’ve let him go. Smith was boring-but-viable for the deep league formats where you’d even consider him.
Who’s Next: Some candidates I could see filling this space later in spring include Kyle Manzardo (CLE), Ryan Noda (OAK), and Spencer Horwitz (TOR), or perhaps someone else blossoms during my research. Who do you like to sneak up at 1B next year? (Current ADP, select Draft Champions from the drop-down menu to get the most useful results)
It was so humble and so brave to put Myers first on your list. For Dom Smith, even though the results weren’t amazing, they did very closely mirror your projection so I would give you a B instead of a C.
For deep picks, CJ Cron (450 ADP) doesn’t have a team but isn’t far removed from being a legitimate fantasy asset albeit he’ll likely be outside COL. If Votto (680 ADP) signs on a team that has available PT, he play at a 30HR/162 pace. Luke Raley at 340 ADP is very late as well considering how good he was this year.
I appreciate the grade boost! I also can’t quit Cron and almost name checked him as well. Raley is surprisingly cheap after his season bc I think there’s some realness to it and he’s at least a strong side platoon stud
I’m a Nats Fan and I was unhappy all season with Dominic Smith. A .270 batting average is fine, but powerless at first base should hit for far more average and get on base more.
And Dom Smith gets DFA at the same time this article is published. If the Nationals don’t want him I can’t see any other team giving him a major league deal.
The Nats dumped him because he wouldn’t agree to an arb settlement and they didn’t want to get stuck paying him something in the neighborhood of $4M+ if the award went in his favor.
He may very well end up getting a lesser (but still MLB) deal somewhere else.
Yeah, I drafted Dom too so I’m not throwing shade on the concept … but I think his season line overstates his productivity simply because he had 6 of his bombs in Sept/Oct. By which point I (and presumably many others) had long since cut him.
Dom Smith was a low-key solid+ contributor in a very very specific type of league. Drafted him super late in a very deep H2H where batter Ks are a category. He provided no power but got on base, didn’t K, and unlike most of the options at that depth he was rarely a net negative at the end of the week.
I’m not sure if Encarnacion-Strand qualifies as relevant here, but he finished the season rather strong, is still young with room to develop, looks to have enough room to get a lot of PT, and could get lost in the plethora or sexy young Reds at draft time. There’s a .280/35 HR hitter in there (prorating, he was not far from that last year).
I love CES!! Since these aren’t exactly sleeper pieces, he can qualify, just as more of a high-end breakout bc his 136 ADP is a mid-round pick regardless of league size. He can definitely earn top-75 or better value!
I’m curious to see if Matt Mervis gets another chance this spring. He got very unlucky in his small cup of coffee. The Cubs giving Morel reps there doesn’t bode well but perhaps he gets traded to a team that can start him right away (Nationals please).
I am very interested to hear your take on the young 1B who hit 19 hrs last spring at Florida Atlantic, in just 197 ab’s, registering a cool 1.483 ops. First in his draft class to make the show, Nolan Schanuel …is he the next Dave Magadan? or is the power coming this season?
I like Luke Raley as a value pick (388 ADP), even with the typical Rays platooning. Hard to find that kind of HR +SB juice late in the draft. His numbers were depressed because he was playing through injury in the 2nd half.
Decent chance Hoskins beats his 208 ADP.
Unless there is bad news between now and the Spring, I would take a chance on Hoskins almost every time in a fantasy draft. 208 ADP is very low for a player with his track record prior to the injury.
Soderstrom might not yet qualify for 1B but he could be similar to Casas, at least in terms of power, breaking out by squaring up to straighten out his wonky BABIP.
The Rockies might just move Bryant to 1B full-time but if they don’t the Rockies have a few guys who might settle in at 1B and put up good numbers – all of Jones, Goodman, Toglia and Montero played 1B this year and have hit well at times.
Is Torkelson’s ADP too high (I don’t look this early), because he could be a good one for this list in ’24.
Really enjoyed this article, Paul. I just wanted to make a quick note to point out that 2020 was also a bouncy ball year (by MLB’s own admission) and that 2021 and even 2022 also used some of the bouncy balls. I think it’s pretty well understood now that 2019 and 2020 were both mostly bouncy balls, with 2021 and 2022 having only a few.
Paul, I might be the only guy who has noticed, but Joey meneses hits only when he fields. His DH penalty is so massive it was mind boggling he dh’d last season. However, this season he is penciled in as the everyday first basemen, so he should have much more value than last year. Keep an eye on him.