Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 8/27/2019

Mark: I know SS is deep but can Bo Bichette be a top 5 contributor at the position as early as next year?

Brad Johnson: That’s his ceiling, but it’s not a likely outcome

Brad Johnson: As you mentioned, there are just so many good SS in the league. You even have guys like Marcus Semien kicking around. You don’t think of him as a Top 10 SS even but he’s one of the best this season

Brad Johnson: I think Bichette can be safely expected to perform like a typical Semien year

Brad Johnson: (and let’s not forget the .416 BABIP)

Evan: Domingo German has had a great year; however, his HR issues seem out of control. How do you think he can go about limiting the long ball and what do you think the likelyhood of him taking a step forward in that regard in 2020 is?

Brad Johnson: For me, this is a a little bit of a random number generator scenario. Shane Bieber looked like he was going to have huge HR problems and they suddenly vanished. Other guys looked safe and fell apart

Brad Johnson: I would hazard there’s a solid chance – somewhere in the 20-50% range – he’ll regress to the mean

Brad Johnson: I should add “all the way to the mean”

Sum: Brad, I had this idea while in the shower last night – Shadow Fantasy Baseball. You set up a parallel league where all the rosters start out the same as your regular league, after the draft, and the scoring is all the same. Except you start out with another team’s roster. You know whether you won or lost that week, or your position in the cats, but you don’t know which other teams are ahead/behind, and you can’t see their rosters or moves; you can only see which players are available/on rosters. you can see all players’ stats, just not for which team they’re playing. what do you think? do you know of any platforms that are capable of this type of blindness?

Brad Johnson: I’m not sure I follow it completely, but I do like the idea of playing blind to your opponents. I think you’d have to start from scratch platform-wise. Maybe FanTrax would support it if you paid them for the dev time

Ryan: Devers has had a breakout season at the dish, but Adell’s fantasy stock has seemed to rise this year. Who do you prefer in 14-team, keep forever dynasty league?

Brad Johnson: Gimme the proven guy over the prospect 9 times out of 10

Brad Johnson: If Devers were 26, it’d be a different conversation

Snowy: Thoughts on Senzel possibly returning to 2nd base next year?

Brad Johnson: If he does, it’s probably in a platoon role. VanMeter is legit, although they’re doing too good a job of hiding him from LHP. He needs experience against southpaws to be a true full timer

Brad Johnson: Personally, I prefer VM at 2B and Senzel in the OF

Brad Johnson: They could disagree with me 🙂

Jonesing for Andruw: Am I being myopic in looking to NOT keep Sale in a keeper league (6 keepers for 2 more years, with draft round penalty in 12 team mixed league, keeping Contreras, Bryant, Greinke, Soto, Arenado) and supplanting him with one of Bichette, W. Smith (the catcher), Sano, Suarez?  And if I replaced, what would your order be?

Brad Johnson: I assume you can’t trade him.

Brad Johnson: Personally, of the guys you listed, I’d keep Soto, Arenado, Bryant, Suarez, Smith, and Bichette as of today. Things could change over the next month which is why….

Brad Johnson: …try not to send too many keeper related questions today. The standard response is: let’s wait and see.

Brad Johnson: wrt Sale in particular, let’s wait and see.

Get Rich Or Die Tryin’: Who are some of your fav buy-low candidates right now?

Brad Johnson: For keeper/dynasty, anybody injured

Brad Johnson: For redraft, gimme a moment to digest this

Brad Johnson: Maybe JUpton, Nate Lowe, Emanuel Clase, I can’t think of a SP

Brad Johnson: Tried to give a scattering of choices

Jeet: I’ve lost JRam and there are no good replacements on the wire.  Any 3B prospects you can see being  a September callup and given decent playing time?

Brad Johnson: I assume Toro-Hernandez is out?

Brad Johnson: The Phillies *might* be desperate enough to call up Alec Bohm. I’d say that’s a 5% outcome at best.

Brad Johnson: I’ll have to research this more later because I find I’m more unaware of potential answers than I should be. All the guys I thought might be September guys (like Toro) are already active.

Sara Yost: What you take on Julio Urias the 2020 starter? Seems to be a wide range of takes on where he stacks up.

Brad Johnson: Yes, he’s a volatile asset

Ryan: Do you think Toro is fantasy relevant in a 15 team 5×5?

Brad Johnson: So long as it’s also a CI league

Brad Johnson: And only until Correa is back. It’s a short window

hi: Are you still starting Bauer at every turn or is it worth playing matchups with Matz/Heaney (12 TM H2H QS league)

Ryan: fgpnts: I was offered a 15$ Bauer for my 4$ Semein and 1$ Luke Weaver.  That’s a little steep for Semein no?

Brad Johnson: I’m kinda out on Bauer right now

Brad Johnson: Looks like a nearly full reversion to the previous version

Brad Johnson: Chad Young (formerly of RotoGraphs and currently an Indians fan) has always said Bauer’s overly addicted to tinkering

Ryan: What are the chances Luis Robert gets called up in Sept?

Brad Johnson: White Sox fans seem to think it’s likely. I just don’t see the incentive for them to start his clock. Not unless he signs an extension like Eloy

Rocco: What to do with Hoskins and Puig who’ve gone very cold?  Still start them?

Brad Johnson: I’m still in on Hoskins. Puig, less so.

Brad Johnson: I’ve gotten used to hiding from Puig slumps though. Hoskins slumps are rarer (though not unprecedented)

KitAndCanoodle: With Laureano’s activation seemingly around the corner, approximately what type of OF should get the boot to make room in a 12-tm OBP/AVG (separate cats) dynasty? Adam Eaton-ish?

Brad Johnson: I really like Adam Eaton so when we talk about him, we’re probably imagining very different players

Brad Johnson: I’ll say guys like Calhoun, Choo, LoCain, Puig

Rocco: Best sources for SB’s on the wire who won’t kill my other categories?

Brad Johnson: Laureano?

Brad Johnson: Kiermaier and Margot aren’t empty in other categories

Brad Johnson: If you need to reach deeper, then you’re SHOL

Brad Johnson: SHOOL? I dunno

Tim: Alarming comparison the other day on Twitter between Jose Peraza, Phil Ervin and Nick Senzel (admittedly over a small sample size). Is there any reason to be concerned about Senzel’s bat and fantasy long-term?

Brad Johnson: No need to worry over-much

Brad Johnson: I do think he’s not going to be a generational talent which is what many people seemed to be hoping

Brad Johnson: He’s probably just a core contributor with a good lineup role

Mookie: In redraft 2020 mookie goes pick ______?

Brad Johnson: 4?

Brad Johnson: Pretty high still

Brad Johnson: If we drafted today, it would be lower

Brad Johnson: But once we have an offseason to relax, everyone will agree he had an excellent season.

Nolan: Mauricio Dubon just got called up. How deep does a redraft league need to be before he is fantasy relevant the rest of this year?

Brad Johnson: I almost forgot he got traded. My first instinct was to say he’s not going to play much in MIL

Brad Johnson: tbh, I’m not really on the Dubon bandwagon as more than a utility guy. That said, the Giants are so terribad that he’s liable to lead off for them

Brad Johnson: I’m guessing 12-team mixed with MI could find a role for him

Matt: Starling Marte’s Exit Velocity has increased month over month to over 91mph in August. Is he turning into a 30HR/20SB guy?

Brad Johnson: I think he’s just climbed his way back to normal Starling Marte

Trout Cannons: If Sale comes out looking normal in the spring, how many SP are you taking ahead of him? Assuming this is a one year blip, hard to drop him below 5 after Cole/JV/Max/Degrom right?

Brad Johnson: Correct

Brad Johnson: A probably-healthy Sale is a candidate for Top 1 pitcher off the board

Brad Johnson: Don’t forget Kershaw

Brad Johnson: For all the whining about his decline, he’s carrying his owners

Guest: Is Gallen a fantasy #1? Four elite pitches by whiffs. Command+ shows the walks could come down.Throwing a sexy change a lot more. Gallen or Grienke in 2020?

Brad Johnson: Easy Grienke for me

Brad Johnson: I don’t see Gallen as an ace yet, but he might play his way into something like Mike Clevinger territory if he finishes strong.

PJ: Tarik Skubal has exploded in AA. Is there anything he is doing differently that caused the spike in Ks? Would you rate him above Mize as a dynasty keeper?

Brad Johnson: I don’t have any particular insights except that Mize is still much more valuable

Brian: Any suggestions for how to fill vacancies in a long-running dynasty league?

Brad Johnson: There are various communities you could join including my Discord channel (via my Patreon)

Brad Johnson: Here’s the shameless plug: https://www.patreon.com/BaseballATeam

Brad Johnson: The Discord community has a League Openings channel. Most spots are filled.

Seeds: Julio Rodriguez is 3 months older than Wander Franco and also tearing up A ball. Granted it’s more of a power profile but does he also have fantasy star upside? As soon as late 2020 or is 2021 more realistic?

Brad Johnson: 2020 is very much a stretch

Brad Johnson: Even 2021 is ambitious

Brad Johnson: But yes, Rodriguez is very much a top prospect

Feller: We’re debating league set-up for next season. Do you have a preference for keeper vs. redraft, number of keepers, snake vs., auction, etc.? What does your perfect league look like?

Brad Johnson: The answer has more to do with the mix of owners than any platonic ideal

Brad Johnson: The lower the skill, the better it is to stick to redraft

Brad Johnson: Similarly, if there’s a wide distribution of skill, stick to redraft

Brad Johnson: Owner skill is already an advantage in a 1-year format. When you add a keeper or dynasty element, it compounds that advantage.

Brad Johnson: Snake drafts are more balanced than auctions.

Brad Johnson: That said, if you have a great group of active, capable owners, I love me a deep keeper and auction format.

angels: Hey Brad, had a trade in my league yesterday that was initially vetoed. It is a 12 team weekly H2H category scoring  keep forever league with 28 keeper slots. Team Deep Rebuild sent Soroka, B Reynolds, and Biggio to Team Compete this Year for Jon Gray, F Whitley, B. Lowe, and Domingo Santana. From my perspective, Team Compete gave up supreme value down the road but lost nothing in production this year (all players traded are injured) as it goes for the title. Team Rebuild splits the risk of Soroka being a pitcher into two pitchers of similar or greater potential value and gets solid upside back in Lowe/Santana. Does this look like it needed a veto to you/seem fair? See a winner here?

Brad Johnson: This doesn’t look like a veto, but I think it’s heavily lopsided in favor of the Soroka package.

Brad Johnson: imo, Soroka, Biggio, and Reynolds are the 3 best players in the trade

Guest: Where are you on Chris Paddack in 2020? People seem really high on him….I don’t get it

Brad Johnson: He’s good.

Brad Johnson: He’s not an ace

Brad Johnson: He’s not stuck to the GLOB

Brad Johnson: So that puts him around SP 15 to 20

Percy Miracles: Is it time to cut guys like E-Rod and Lynn? H2H playoffs start next week and E-Rod vs MIN and Lynn at NYY don’t look very favourable

Brad Johnson: I’d probably roll the dice with Lynn personally

Brad Johnson: And I’ve been pretty skeptical of him all year

Brad Johnson: In general, if you can find anything you think is an upgrade on the wire, take it.

baseballdude: how much do september call-ups affect pitching schedules?  do most teams go with 6 man rotations or throw in extra off days for their starters?  trying to line up starts for the next round of the fantasy playoffs.

Brad Johnson: It’s highly individualized. At least some teams will spell out exactly what they’re doing so their fans don’t throw a fit

Brad Johnson: It’s “safer” to have players on contending teams. Too bad more than half of teams aren’t contending.

Nolan: Are you taking Aquino or Senzel higher in a 2020 redraft?

Brad Johnson: If I had to pick today, I might go Aquino

Brad Johnson: It’s not the “correct” answer, but it is the one that makes me happiest 🙂

Brad Johnson: By projection, there are too many scenarios where Aquino takes a bow and vanishes from the viewfinder

Jeremy: Re: Bauer, if you look at his last few starts he does well in matchups you wouldn’t start him and dominates tough matchups so “playing the matchups” is *shrug*
I know because I never pick the right day to start him or Matt Boyd.

Brad Johnson: This has been a bad year for playing matchups

Brad Johnson: Not just these 2 guys

Cousin Greg: What’s Will Smith’s outlook in a dynasty league? Curious where you would rank him as a catcher in a keeper league

Brad Johnson: He’s Top 3 as of today

Brad Johnson: The only concern is that Keibert Ruiz is also a very legit catching prospect

Brad Johnson: So it’s not hard to imagine them splitting time by 2021

Brad Johnson: And this being the Dodgers, they don’t mind having really good players working half the time

Stephen: Brian, I’m searching for a new dynasty league. I’m getting bored with my league where half the teams don t really try after June

Brad Johnson: I guess you two can try to use the article comments to communicate?

Brad Johnson: It’s nigh on impossible to design a dynasty league where everybody tries through most of the season

Brad Johnson: There’s too much incentive/draw to rebuild

Ryan: Kyle Seager or Eduardo Escobar ROS?

Brad Johnson: I just ran Seager through my HR calculator last Saturday and had him spitting out 10 more HR

Brad Johnson: That’s up around the top RoS projections

Brad Johnson: That’s based on him maintaining his recent gains – which look an awful lot like vintage Seager

Brad Johnson: Escobar is probably the better pick though.

Brad Johnson: I don’t think you’re going wrong with either if you’re leaning one way.

So Cal Craig: Long term, Civale or “The Punisher “??

Brad Johnson: Boy, you sure presented some comparable assets.

Brad Johnson: I like them both as high risk, high reward fliers

Brad Johnson: There’s a lot of bust risk involved

Brad Johnson: And I’ll always lean hitter over pitcher

Brad Johnson: So… gimme Aquino

Guest: Ketel Marte or Starling Marte in 2020?  Both are borderline 2nd rounders right?

Brad Johnson: I think they’ll both prove rather confusing when it comes to rankings

Brad Johnson: You’re going to have a cohort of analysts who think Ketel will regress

Brad Johnson: And you’ll have a general ageist penalty to Starling

Brad Johnson: There’s a third dimension to consider too. Both Martes figure to be disproportionally affected by an unjuiced baseball

Brad Johnson: And, as I’ll write over the winter, I’m planning to gamble on an unjuiced ball in many of my leagues.

Sam Yost: If Khris Davis doesn’t rebound by the end of the year could be outside the top 150?

Brad Johnson: I don’t think so. Everybody believes he’s playing hurt.

Brad Johnson: He’ll be discounted, but not ludicrously so

fed: but its still safe to start almost anyone against baltimore right?

Brad Johnson: Baltimore has a surprisingly not-terrible offense

Brad Johnson: And it tends to be volatile

Brad Johnson: It’s definitely safe to start just about anyone against the Tigers or Marlins though

Brad Johnson: yeesh

TJ: Rest of season, how would you rank Ahmed, Alberto and Toro?

Brad Johnson: I think you have it. But I’d take Toro over them if we’re only concerned about the next 2 weeks.

Angus: Thoughts on Gavin Lux.  Does he get the call next month?

Brad Johnson: It comes down to if the Dodgers want him on their playoff roster

Brad Johnson: If not, they have no incentive to start his clock

Brad Johnson: While they’re not penny pinchers by any means, they do carefully manage their assets

Turgid: Trevor Richards has thrown a couple good starts with the rays. Next week has a 2-start against Bal and Tor. Like those matchups over Lamet vs Ari or Col?

Brad Johnson: Yes, I’d lean Richards

Balked: Would rather be starting Voit or Abreu at 1B in September? OBP league.

Brad Johnson: I’m very concerned about Voit’s health holding up

Brad Johnson: I’m not really buying that he didn’t need surgery

Brad Johnson: I would definitely prefer a healthy Voit. But if you have to choose today, Abreu is likelier to make all his starts by a wide margin

Brad Johnson: Call it 16 games for Voit and 30 for Abreu. Projections

Chipper: Is there any reason to keep Edwin Diaz on my roster?

Brad Johnson: You want a shot at saves with big strikeout totals and your best waiver options look like Sergio Romo or Mychal Givens

Brad Johnson: It really just depends on league depth. I can’t imagine cutting Diaz in any of mine, but they skew quite deep.

Fanstasy Football: What the hell is wrong with AZ and refusing to play Cron?

Brad Johnson: I see somebody read the latest Peripheral Prospects

Cousin Greg: ‘unjuiced baseball’? Can you give a teaser of your winter article? Is there belief we’ll see an altered ball to reduce homeruns ?

Brad Johnson: So MLB purchased the means of production for their baseballs a few years ago. One of the first things they did was improve quality control. That’s led to this current batch of juicy balls.

Brad Johnson: We call them juiced, but they’re really just higher quality and more consistent

Brad Johnson: There’s a lag between production and when a ball is used – typically 6 to 18 months

Brad Johnson: So if the league decided to say roughen the leather back in May, it probably wouldn’t show up until next season.

Edwin Diaz: which one of me do u prefer in dynasty: the mets pitcher or A’s shortstop

Brad Johnson: Fun question, but I haven’t seen anything to indicate that the shortstop is a future major leaguer. Maybe he’s a utility guy

Tim: Thames getting enough playing time to roster in 12-teamers?

Brad Johnson: He’s a streamer imo

Frank: Which Nolan you prefer? Jones or Gorman

Brad Johnson: Jones in OBP, Gorman elsewise

Brad Johnson: Jones if I’m averaging between all scenarios.

Brad Johnson: The skill set is more actualized at this time

Brad Johnson: Gorman’s at least half hopes and dreams

Mark: Is Will Smith the next Buster Posey?

Brad Johnson: Not the comp I’d go with, but in terms of being a defensive ace with a goodly stick, he could be in that asset class

Brad Johnson: The hitting profile is far more power-centric

Brad Johnson: Alrighty, I started early because I need to wrap up early

Honey: Is Waguespack a serviceable SP ROS in a deep league?

Brad Johnson: I prefer to target players with at least one positive category

Brad Johnson: Wagues doesn’t have one

Brad Johnson: Usually for these fringy-type pitchers, we’re looking for matchups where the win is projected ~40% or higher

Brad Johnson: He’ll never have that

Phil: Who’s a better keeper at C – Will Smith or Contreras?

Brad Johnson: Smith

Pat’s Bat: More H2H value next season: Austin Riley or Bryan Reynolds?

Brad Johnson: I’m pretty anti-Riley. He’s clearly going to play in the majors, but another team could hide him in Triple-A and no one would complain

Brad Johnson: He’s getting the max benefit from his prospect status

Ken: General thoughts about Dylan Carlson in a dynasty league? Think he can be a 20/20 guy in a few seasons?

Brad Johnson: I own a couple shares and I’m excited about the buzz

Brad Johnson: Cuz now I can sell him for a haul!

Brad Johnson: I get the sense he’ll be a better real world than fantasy guy

Brad Johnson: I’m told his speed won’t hold up for long, the power is more good than great, and he’s got enough swing and miss to be a little worried

Brad Johnson: Alrighty, thanks for playing everyone. See ya next week.