Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 5/28/2019

by Brad Johnson

May 28, 2019

The chat is complete.

3:57	Brad Johnson: Hey folks, we’ll get started in a few moments.

3:58	Brad Johnson: A word of warning, I’m going to be a little extra deliberate in my answers today. I’ve been unplugged from anything that’s happened since Thursday. Still catching up.

4:01	Vic: Will Keller get more well deserved opportunities to start?

4:01	Brad Johnson: Like this, I completely missed this.

4:02	Brad Johnson: The Pirates seemingly have a spot for Keller in place of Steven Brault

4:02	Brad Johnson: Or he could take Kingham’s slot

4:02	Brad Johnson: The Pirates are known to be extremely conservative with promotion plans

4:03	Brad Johnson: Now that they’ve called him up, I’ll say he’ll get at least 10 starts

4:03	Matt: Gotta drop one of either JA Happ (and eat $6 of $10) or Pablo Lopez (at $1). I have a few good SP options, and trying to decide if waiting on Lopez’s upside is the right move…12 team roto dynasty.

4:03	Brad Johnson: Lopez is the cut

4:04	Brad Johnson: As much as I think he’s a relatively talented pitcher, the Marlins have shown no sign or aptitude towards building a complete roster

4:04	Brad Johnson: I’m inclined to believe their starting pitching depth is more happy coincidence than actual developmental plan

4:05	Brad Johnson: Happ at least could salvage some immediate wins with similarly rough ratios

4:05	Brad Johnson: Ultimately, I think you want to replace both if you can

4:05	Brad Johnson: I’ll add, Happ is only a 2019 play at this stage of his career. No need to look further down the line.

4:05	Big Tuna: Are you holding Jose Martinez in a 12 tm OPS league? Statcast numbers are good but results and PT aren’t great. Could drop him for JD Davis (now starting) and Piscotty.

4:05	Brad Johnson: I’d make one of those swaps

4:06	Donjuan: Which side of this trade do you prefer, all things being equal: Machado for Marquez and H Dozier? Is it a close call for you?

4:06	Brad Johnson: Not close, preference for Machado

4:06	Kitch Meller: Chad Pinder- he waiver wire fodder?

4:06	Brad Johnson: For 12-mixed? Always was

4:06	Brad Johnson: Guy you CAN roster but always look to replace with better

4:06	Averagejoe: Should I be holding Maeda in a 14 teamer or is he streamable? I’d be eyeing a guy like Canning as a streamer.

4:07	Brad Johnson: I’d probably hold for now

4:07	Brad Johnson: Reassessing every week or two

4:07	Kdog: Sup Brad. I have stashed Yordan Alvarez. I am waiting for word he comes up to replace, if anyone, White. I have been offered Robles and/or Domingo Santana for him. What to do?

4:07	Brad Johnson: I assume there are some keeper considerations. Robles is a better-looking asset both now AND long term

4:08	Brad Johnson: I wouldn’t take Santana who’s just a streaky league average guy

4:09	Brad Johnson: It’s also fine to wait. The Astros are running out of reasons to keep him down.

4:09	Billy: What’s your preference between Musgrove, Lyles, and Archer in H2H pts

4:09	Brad Johnson: Probably Archer

4:09	Griss: Wanna try to acquire trout 12 team redraft. JV + Gallo for Trout and Barnes? Which side

4:09	Brad Johnson: Depends entirely on needs

4:10	Brad Johnson: it’s a taut offer

4:10	Nate: Thoughts on Martin Perez? Velocity has dipped on average over the last five starts. Are you selling or holding in dynasty?

4:10	Brad Johnson: Was always selling

4:10	Brad Johnson: Still selling

4:10	Brad Johnson: An improved Perez isn’t the same as a good Perez

4:10	Brad Johnson: He’s merely usable. I’ll always turn that into something I want long term if the opportunity arises

4:10	Tito: Is Cron going to get a real chance with the DBacks?

4:11	Brad Johnson: Given their experience with Paul Goldschmidt, they really should

4:11	Brad Johnson: Goldy, if you’ll recall, was a minor league masher who wasn’t really well-regarded as a prospect

4:11	Brad Johnson: A lot of lazy comps to Mark Reynolds at the time

4:12	Brad Johnson: btw, this is Kevin Cron we’re discussing.

4:12	Brad Johnson: A 26-year-old who was promoted after hitting 21 home runs in 199 plate appearances.

4:13	Brad Johnson: in Triple-A

4:13	Danny: In redrafts, is Paddack really a sell? Maybe only 100 innings but they’re probably really good and he might get September starts

4:13	Brad Johnson: He’s a shop

4:13	Brad Johnson: I think you have to see what’s available, but at the same time, there really isn’t much out there pitching at the same level

4:13	Brad Johnson: And selling guys with innings caps is a dated strategy

4:14	Brad Johnson: For all but maybe 5 or 10 pitchers, you’re trying to squeeze 120 good innings then figuring out the rest from pop-up guys like Corbin Martin and Mitch Keller

4:14	Brad Johnson: And hoping to find the next big thing in the process

4:14	Jones: Matt boyd or woodruff ros?

4:14	Brad Johnson: EZ Boyd for me

4:15	Brad Johnson: There’s a little bit of JA Happ in the profile to me in that I’ve grown to expect him to outperform his stuff

4:15	Brad Johnson: Maybe that’s a mistake, maybe it’s not

4:16	Kitch Meller: Franchy still intriguing stash for 20 team league?

4:16	Brad Johnson: Yea, still talented

4:16	Brad Johnson: Might take a long time for the right opportunity to emerge

4:16	John: With regular playing time, do you think Jacoby Jones could get to 15hr and 20 steals Ros?

4:16	Brad Johnson: He has the speed. The power feels ambitious

4:17	Brad Johnson: I think he could get to 15 HR total

4:17	Brad Johnson: Maybe

4:17	Brad Johnson: Also, he’ll crush your AVG

4:17	Corbin Martin: How long is Martin’s leash after a pair of dud outings where his control looked so erratic?

4:17	Brad Johnson: Not long

4:17	Pitching sucks: Are you picking up Plesac for tonight’s game?

4:17	Brad Johnson: Looks like a rainout to me

4:18	Brad Johnson: I missed because I was travelling, but I would only stash him, not use him

4:18	kobrien: Someone dropped Josh Donaldson in my league. I snagged him, do you expect a decent return moving forward?

4:18	Brad Johnson: Yes, “decent” being the operative word

4:19	Manny: What range of player can be used to acquire Judge? Offered pete alonso to no avail. I expect judge back after all star break

4:19	Brad Johnson: Alonso is already a ballsy offer

4:19	Brad Johnson: It sounds like Judge simply isn’t available at a reasonable price

4:19	Fred Rick: Reanato Nunez — Hunter Renfroe — same person?

4:19	Brad Johnson: No…

4:19	Brad Johnson: I mean, I’ll do some due diligence

4:21	Brad Johnson: Ok, I see what you’re getting at

4:22	Brad Johnson: The difference is Hunter Renfroe is a 3 or 4 win outfielder and Nunez is a rep level 3B. There are certain similarities

4:23	Brad Johnson: I’ll also congratulate Nunez for improving from one of the very worst players in the league to merely bad. Adding actual power to his profile is an important achievement

4:23	Brad Johnson: Previously, he hadn’t shown enough aptitude for contact to make more than 20 HR realistic

4:24	KC: Are you taking the wait a see approach with Nick Pivetta?

4:24	Brad Johnson: Yes. Probably a stash and see approach technically

4:24	kobrien: JD Davis seems to be crushing the ball. Is he worth a pickup as he gets more of a role?

4:24	Brad Johnson: Yes, let’s see if he turns into something

4:24	Connor Joe Buck: How high do you go on Matt Manning? Dynasty ottoneu league

4:24	Brad Johnson: $1

4:25	Brad Johnson: Always $1 for pitching prospects

4:25	Brad Johnson: If for some reason you actively want to add pitching prospects, just go to the next guy until you get one

4:25	Brad Johnson: There are basically 3 types of prospects

4:26	Brad Johnson: 1. $1 guys 2. Overpriced guys 3. Guys who fell through the cracks and are now MLB contributors

4:26	Brad Johnson: You can bid more for category 3

4:26	Brad Johnson: and there are certainly exceptions to the rules

4:27	baseballdude: who is the most droppable out of these batters in a points league format: franmil, puig, meadows, eloy, hunter dozier?

4:27	Brad Johnson: Puig seems to be waking up

4:28	Brad Johnson: Dozier’s still going

4:28	Brad Johnson: Meadows shows no signs of slowing

4:28	Brad Johnson: Franmil has a top 10 HR projection despite some PT limits

4:29	Brad Johnson: Jimenez, despite possibly the most physical ability of the batch, is clearly the weak link right now

4:29	Brad Johnson: You should be able to trade him though

4:29	BigTuna: DJ stewart was crushing AAA. You adding in 12 tm leagues? Or watching?

4:29	Orioles: If he gets full PT for ROS, what kind of upside (in terms of HR/OBP/SB) does DJ Stewart offer owners?

4:30	Brad Johnson: So, I think this is a case of a mature hitter feasting on weaker competition. I’m offput by a high swinging strike rate and merely decent HR total despite all the favorable conditions

4:31	Brad Johnson: I think for 12-team, he’s not more than a streamer

4:31	Brad Johnson: Maybe watchlist him

4:31	NotBurtReynolds: I’d been planning on packaging Austin Meadow to acquire an ace in my dynasty H2H points league. But he just keeps hitting and producing and his pts/g has been top-10 all year. Has he reached his peak trade-value or can his value still rise?

4:31	Brad Johnson: He’s probably peaked

4:31	Brad Johnson: The bigger issue is finding a pitcher of comparable value

4:31	Brad Johnson: I’d be hard pressed to identify one right now

4:32	Bring Back DeSpaniel Hair: Try and trade for Bauer while he is all out of sorts? Banking on him tinkering back to studly?

4:32	Brad Johnson: We exist in pitcher hell

4:32	Brad Johnson: It’s as good a bet as any

4:32	Brad Johnson: I’d love to offer a more proactive and positively phrased answer

4:33	Brad Johnson: But I’ve come to believe the answer to pitching this year is to close your eyes and pray to Willians

4:33	Random : Fwiw I got judge for cutch

4:33	Brad Johnson: This is light but much more in line with my expectations

4:34	Brad Johnson: Previously somebody asked what to pay for Judge in redraft and said his offer of Alonso was already rejected.

4:34	Moelicious: You were right about Christian Walker. That is all

4:34	Brad Johnson: I’m going to take this victory lap because it’s become damned hard to be right about anything for predictable reasons

4:35	Brad Johnson: Everything is squirmy this year. There are no truths

4:35	Michael: What are the chances of Will Smith (LAD) staying in the majors for more than two weeks? I have a lot of injuries in my NL-only roster and could fit him into the lineup easily. Is it worth spending ~20% FAAB on him?

4:36	Brad Johnson: I think the odds are pretty low, but that’s entirely based on uncertainty about the Dodgers plans

4:36	Brad Johnson: Long term, they obviously have to decide what they have in Smith and Keibert

4:36	Brad Johnson: So they have incentive to give Smith a long look while the division is relatively under control

4:37	Brad Johnson: And they could have also decided to press eject on Barnes

4:37	Brad Johnson: fwiw, Ruiz is merely treading water in Double-A

4:37	Brad Johnson: And Smith is the better-regarded receiver

4:37	abelwingnut: is there really anything different with scherzer this season? all the underlying stats i see look roughly the same. it’s just that damn babip is completely insane.

4:38	Brad Johnson: Something is probably different. This happened a few years back for an extended stint

4:38	Brad Johnson: He was very homer prone then

4:38	Brad Johnson: I agree it’s something not easily found on a FG page

4:38	Brad Johnson: And I haven’t dug deeper as I personally own only 1 share

4:38	darren: whats touki’s role next season ?

4:39	Brad Johnson: Well, long term, I’m confident he’s a reliever

4:39	Brad Johnson: Whether that’s next year remains to be seen

4:39	Brad Johnson: And is he a good reliever or just a guy? That’s also unclear.

4:39	Kristen Stewart: Is Christin Stewart…. Going to hit again?

4:40	Brad Johnson: The Tigers jumped started Jeimer with a quick demotion

4:40	Brad Johnson: He’s expected to be recalled any day now

4:40	Brad Johnson: I think Stewart could also use a restorative demotion

4:40	Brad Johnson: He sort of had one while rehabbing, but that was in High-A

4:41	Brad Johnson: Triple-A would be a better place for him to work on making more consistent contact

4:41	Brad Johnson: The good news is his combo of pulled fly balls can turn hot very fast

4:41	Brad Johnson: I mostly advise patience, subject to your league depth

4:42	Bring Back DeSpaniel Hair: Regarding pitcher hell, I have Luis Castillo, Degrom, G. Cole, and I am afraid to watch every start… I practically expect one of them to implode every week. I hate this juiced ball.

4:43	Brad Johnson: I’m afraid of Lyles, Turnbull, and Thornton on my rosters. Can I trade them to you?

4:44	Tommy La Sort of: Let me ask another way…I guess what I’m more interested in…what do you expect from Didi in his return?

4:44	Brad Johnson: Well, injured guys sometimes are rusty, or not rusty, or still kinda injured, or playing very carefully and thus less-well.

4:45	Brad Johnson: Mean/median expectation should be 2018 Didi. And honestly, I’d throw out his April data.

4:46	Matt: Re Pivetta: Are you more so hoping some time down will have helped him reach what potential he always had, or is there something different that might indicate that as an outcome?

4:46	Brad Johnson: I regret to report I have no new information related to a reason why now Pivetta might be better than April Pivetta

4:46	Brad Johnson: His command seems to be back in 2017 mode which is to say in the area of a 40 to 45 grade on the 20/80 scale

4:46	Brad Johnson: Last year he was more 55/60 which was a huge surprise

4:47	Brad Johnson: Somebody, maybe Alex Chamberlain, wrote about how very frequently command gainers immediately relinquish it in the next season

4:49	Brad Johnson: Which frankly surprised me. I personally went from 25 to 30 grade command in college, took 5 years off, and magically came back with legit 65-grade spot-sniping. It’s stuck for five years. I figured pitchers just aged into command and held it.

4:49	Mike: Musgrove an easy sell at this point?

4:49	Brad Johnson: Ha, good luck selling him to anybody

4:49	Kitch Meller: Top 5 fantasy pitchers right now?

4:49	Brad Johnson: Do relievers count?

4:49	Brad Johnson: I’d probably draft it as Verlander, Cole, Scherzer, deGrom, and Berrios

4:50	Brad Johnson: Corbin, Snell, Grienke, Castillo, Strasburg, and a few others on the short list

4:50	Mike: Ottoneu 5×5 – 74$ Trout for 9$ Corbin, 8$ Alex Reyes, 3$ Jose Martinez. Thoughts?

4:50	Brad Johnson: Gimme Trout!

4:51	Brad Johnson: Literally nothing I want to keep in the other side

4:51	Brad Johnson: If we’re talking Trout for keepers

4:51	Brad Johnson: You should be getting like a $3 Eloy or Hiura plus at least 2 more nice pieces

4:51	Brad Johnson: Assuming you’re the one selling Trout

4:52	Brad Johnson: If it’s the other direction, you’re in heist mode

4:52	Brian Collins : Trade Rizzo and Canning for P. Corbin. Have Smoak and Gallo to replace Rizzo at 1B. Thoughts on this trade? Thanks Brad

4:52	Brad Johnson: It’s an aggressive attempt to solve a pitching issue with one of the 10 guys who’s supposed to be good and IS good.

4:52	Brad Johnson: I have no problem with it

4:52	Mortimer Smith: Do you think the Dodgers would try to move Pollack’s contract now that Pederson and Verdugo are going crazy?

4:53	Brad Johnson: Nope

4:53	Brad Johnson: I think they’ll juggle everything like they always do

4:53	Kitch Meller: Still like Yandy Diaz or is he just a replacement level player?

4:53	Brad Johnson: He’s better than rep level

4:53	Brad Johnson: More like 2 wins

4:53	Brad Johnson: And yes, I like him

4:53	Brad Johnson: I’d like him if he was rep level because he’s damned interesting

4:54	Kitch Meller: Christian Stewart is, and always has been JAG. He had a hot streak….. that’s it

4:54	Brad Johnson: That raw power, decent contact skills, and 50% fly ball rate are just too promising to label him as a guy

4:55	Brad Johnson: If you’re referring to his total set of tools, they’re bland

4:55	Brad Johnson: I agree

4:55	Brad Johnson: But for fantasy purposes, they’re bland in a 30 HR kind of way

4:55	RJ: FYI – the Tigers have just recalled Candelario

4:55	Brad Johnson: boom

4:55	Connie Mack & Cheese: My team this year includes Judge, Stanton, T. Turner, Blackmon and Springer. Just needed to get that out.

4:55	baseballdude: to your suggestion of trying to trade eloy…what kind of SP could i reasonably try to get back in return? points league

4:56	Brad Johnson: My goto target is Charlie Morton

4:56	Brad Johnson: Because he’s typically undervalued.

4:57	Brad Johnson: The challenge with pitchers is… well

4:57	Brad Johnson: We’ve coined and talked about The Glob plenty on FanGraphs

4:57	Brad Johnson: If you don’t grab above The Glob, then it’s a dart throw

4:57	Brad Johnson: Some of the spots are regarded as better than others, but actual value is still roughly the same

4:58	Brad Johnson: So, you can probably grab one of the better-regarded Glob Guys

4:58	Brad Johnson: but he’ll still be a Glob Guy

4:58	Al Reyes: Which side you like in trade? Kris Bryant for Devers and Mike Minor?

4:58	Brad Johnson: Bryant, unless you really need the pitching

4:58	Von Hayes: Is Renato Nunez a 30 HR guy now?

4:58	Brad Johnson: Who isn’t?

4:59	Kirk: The time you take and the quality of your response in these chats is great. I’m really appreciative of your input here, and without it I doubt I’d still be on this website for fantasy baseball help (regular baseball articles aside)

5:00	Brad Johnson: Hey Kirk, I appreciate it. I did, however, edit your comment to be friendlier.

5:00	James: What’s your overall policy on trading for injured players? Do you view these as a “buy low”, or do you steer clear?

5:00	Brad Johnson: I definitely approach them opportunistically

5:01	Brad Johnson: I pretty much only approach trading from an arbitrage perspective. I’m looking for divergences of valuation.

5:01	Brad Johnson: I’m not shy about admitting it to anybody, but some people take it the wrong way.

5:02	Pat: If my IL spot is full should I drop guys like Clevinger and Upton

5:02	Brad Johnson: depends on opportunity cost. i.e. who are you picking up and what will the provide compared with a future healthy guy

5:02	Cameron: J.D. Davis or Bryan Reynolds RoS?

5:02	Brad Johnson: Davis

5:02	Brad Johnson: Time to wrap it up. I’ve been informed I must attend a wine sale asap

5:02	Ben: Who is a roughly equal value pitcher for Josh Donaldson at the moment?

5:03	Brad Johnson: Uh, I find myself going back to Charlie Morton again

5:03	Pike Trout: Why did the Yankees sign Stanton instead of JD Mart?

5:03	Brad Johnson: They didn’t really. They traded for Stanton because Derek Jeter waved him in front of their noses for peanuts. At the time, Stanton was a better asset than JDM. Shit happens as they say

5:03	Brew Ha Ha: In a roto redraft are you dropping Hiura for Jeimer or C. Stewart?

5:04	Brad Johnson: Not Stewart right now

5:04	Brad Johnson: Probably not Jeimer yet either

5:04	Brad Johnson: I’d rather hope Keston figures it out

5:04	Voldemort: Where would you rank Matt Chapman ROS? Top 30 hitter?

5:04	Brad Johnson: Yes, somewhere up there

5:04	Jim: …are the Dbacks really going to play Alex Avila over Carson Kelly even after dumping JR Murphy?

5:05	Brad Johnson: I guess so. It’s kind of irresponsible for Avila to be catching given his concussion issues

5:05	Voldemort: You can edit our comments???

5:05	Brad Johnson: :slow grin:

5:05	Tony: Does Devers have 40hr potential or does his low FB rate make it unlikely he’ll reach that potential?

5:06	Brad Johnson: No, 40 is massively aggressive for a lefty at Fenway

5:06	Ant: Rank these 3rd basemen in a keeper setting: Sano, Vladdy, Devers

5:06	Brad Johnson: Vladdy, Devers, Sano

5:06	Mike: Are you buying that Hunter Dozier can hit .280avg with 30 homers?

5:06	Brad Johnson: Maybe more like .272 and 28 HR?

5:06	darren: live & die with j-ram… right?

5:06	Brad Johnson: Yes

5:06	eD: Muncy or H. Dozier? ROS?

5:06	Brad Johnson: Oh, that’s tricky

5:07	Brad Johnson: I’d poll it if I wasn’t about to press End Chat

5:07	Brad Johnson: Gonna say Dozier only because of assured playing time

5:08	Brad Johnson: Ok folks, that’s it. You should join today’s The Daily Grind Invitational on FantasyDraft. It’s a $2 no rake GPP which means the site isn’t taking a slice. And it’s guaranteed prize so maybe the site will end up paying more than the entries.

5:08	Brad Johnson: Brad Johnson @BaseballATeam We’re running a healthy overlay in today’s TDGI GPP on @FantasyDraft. direct link: fantasydraft.com/contest/133351… article: fantasy.fangraphs.com/the-daily-grin… 28 May 2019

Who is Being Dropped & Why

A Real Buy Low Team

You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam

Comments are closed.