Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 5/28/2019
by Brad Johnson
May 28, 2019
The chat is complete.
| 3:57 |
: Hey folks, we’ll get started in a few moments.
|
| 3:58 |
: A word of warning, I’m going to be a little extra deliberate in my answers today. I’ve been unplugged from anything that’s happened since Thursday. Still catching up.
|
| 4:01 |
: Will Keller get more well deserved opportunities to start?
|
| 4:01 |
: Like this, I completely missed this.
|
| 4:02 |
: The Pirates seemingly have a spot for Keller in place of Steven Brault
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|
| 4:02 |
: Or he could take Kingham’s slot
|
| 4:02 |
: The Pirates are known to be extremely conservative with promotion plans
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| 4:03 |
: Now that they’ve called him up, I’ll say he’ll get at least 10 starts
|
| 4:03 |
: Gotta drop one of either JA Happ (and eat $6 of $10) or Pablo Lopez (at $1). I have a few good SP options, and trying to decide if waiting on Lopez’s upside is the right move…12 team roto dynasty.
|
| 4:03 |
: Lopez is the cut
|
| 4:04 |
: As much as I think he’s a relatively talented pitcher, the Marlins have shown no sign or aptitude towards building a complete roster
|
| 4:04 |
: I’m inclined to believe their starting pitching depth is more happy coincidence than actual developmental plan
|
| 4:05 |
: Happ at least could salvage some immediate wins with similarly rough ratios
|
| 4:05 |
: Ultimately, I think you want to replace both if you can
|
| 4:05 |
: I’ll add, Happ is only a 2019 play at this stage of his career. No need to look further down the line.
|
| 4:05 |
: Are you holding Jose Martinez in a 12 tm OPS league? Statcast numbers are good but results and PT aren’t great. Could drop him for JD Davis (now starting) and Piscotty.
|
| 4:05 |
: I’d make one of those swaps
|
| 4:06 |
: Which side of this trade do you prefer, all things being equal: Machado for Marquez and H Dozier? Is it a close call for you?
|
| 4:06 |
: Not close, preference for Machado
|
| 4:06 |
: Chad Pinder- he waiver wire fodder?
|
| 4:06 |
: For 12-mixed? Always was
|
| 4:06 |
: Guy you CAN roster but always look to replace with better
|
| 4:06 |
: Should I be holding Maeda in a 14 teamer or is he streamable? I’d be eyeing a guy like Canning as a streamer.
|
| 4:07 |
: I’d probably hold for now
|
| 4:07 |
: Reassessing every week or two
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| 4:07 |
: Sup Brad. I have stashed Yordan Alvarez. I am waiting for word he comes up to replace, if anyone, White. I have been offered Robles and/or Domingo Santana for him. What to do?
|
| 4:07 |
: I assume there are some keeper considerations. Robles is a better-looking asset both now AND long term
|
| 4:08 |
: I wouldn’t take Santana who’s just a streaky league average guy
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| 4:09 |
: It’s also fine to wait. The Astros are running out of reasons to keep him down.
|
| 4:09 |
: What’s your preference between Musgrove, Lyles, and Archer in H2H pts
|
| 4:09 |
: Probably Archer
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| 4:09 |
: Wanna try to acquire trout 12 team redraft. JV + Gallo for Trout and Barnes? Which side
|
| 4:09 |
: Depends entirely on needs
|
| 4:10 |
: it’s a taut offer
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| 4:10 |
: Thoughts on Martin Perez? Velocity has dipped on average over the last five starts. Are you selling or holding in dynasty?
|
| 4:10 |
: Was always selling
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| 4:10 |
: Still selling
|
| 4:10 |
: An improved Perez isn’t the same as a good Perez
|
| 4:10 |
: He’s merely usable. I’ll always turn that into something I want long term if the opportunity arises
|
| 4:10 |
: Is Cron going to get a real chance with the DBacks?
|
| 4:11 |
: Given their experience with Paul Goldschmidt, they really should
|
| 4:11 |
: Goldy, if you’ll recall, was a minor league masher who wasn’t really well-regarded as a prospect
|
| 4:11 |
: A lot of lazy comps to Mark Reynolds at the time
|
| 4:12 |
: btw, this is Kevin Cron we’re discussing.
|
| 4:12 |
: A 26-year-old who was promoted after hitting 21 home runs in 199 plate appearances.
|
| 4:13 |
: in Triple-A
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| 4:13 |
: In redrafts, is Paddack really a sell? Maybe only 100 innings but they’re probably really good and he might get September starts
|
| 4:13 |
: He’s a shop
|
| 4:13 |
: I think you have to see what’s available, but at the same time, there really isn’t much out there pitching at the same level
|
| 4:13 |
: And selling guys with innings caps is a dated strategy
|
| 4:14 |
: For all but maybe 5 or 10 pitchers, you’re trying to squeeze 120 good innings then figuring out the rest from pop-up guys like Corbin Martin and Mitch Keller
|
| 4:14 |
: And hoping to find the next big thing in the process
|
| 4:14 |
: Matt boyd or woodruff ros?
|
| 4:14 |
: EZ Boyd for me
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| 4:15 |
: There’s a little bit of JA Happ in the profile to me in that I’ve grown to expect him to outperform his stuff
|
| 4:15 |
: Maybe that’s a mistake, maybe it’s not
|
| 4:16 |
: Franchy still intriguing stash for 20 team league?
|
| 4:16 |
: Yea, still talented
|
| 4:16 |
: Might take a long time for the right opportunity to emerge
|
| 4:16 |
: With regular playing time, do you think Jacoby Jones could get to 15hr and 20 steals Ros?
|
| 4:16 |
: He has the speed. The power feels ambitious
|
| 4:17 |
: I think he could get to 15 HR total
|
| 4:17 |
: Maybe
|
| 4:17 |
: Also, he’ll crush your AVG
|
| 4:17 |
: How long is Martin’s leash after a pair of dud outings where his control looked so erratic?
|
| 4:17 |
: Not long
|
| 4:17 |
: Are you picking up Plesac for tonight’s game?
|
| 4:17 |
: Looks like a rainout to me
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| 4:18 |
: I missed because I was travelling, but I would only stash him, not use him
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| 4:18 |
: Someone dropped Josh Donaldson in my league. I snagged him, do you expect a decent return moving forward?
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| 4:18 |
: Yes, “decent” being the operative word
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| 4:19 |
: What range of player can be used to acquire Judge? Offered pete alonso to no avail. I expect judge back after all star break
|
| 4:19 |
: Alonso is already a ballsy offer
|
| 4:19 |
: It sounds like Judge simply isn’t available at a reasonable price
|
| 4:19 |
: Reanato Nunez — Hunter Renfroe — same person?
|
| 4:19 |
: No…
|
| 4:19 |
: I mean, I’ll do some due diligence
|
| 4:21 |
: Ok, I see what you’re getting at
|
| 4:22 |
: The difference is Hunter Renfroe is a 3 or 4 win outfielder and Nunez is a rep level 3B. There are certain similarities
|
| 4:23 |
: I’ll also congratulate Nunez for improving from one of the very worst players in the league to merely bad. Adding actual power to his profile is an important achievement
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| 4:23 |
: Previously, he hadn’t shown enough aptitude for contact to make more than 20 HR realistic
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| 4:24 |
: Are you taking the wait a see approach with Nick Pivetta?
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| 4:24 |
: Yes. Probably a stash and see approach technically
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| 4:24 |
: JD Davis seems to be crushing the ball. Is he worth a pickup as he gets more of a role?
|
| 4:24 |
: Yes, let’s see if he turns into something
|
| 4:24 |
: How high do you go on Matt Manning? Dynasty ottoneu league
|
| 4:24 |
: $1
|
| 4:25 |
: Always $1 for pitching prospects
|
| 4:25 |
: If for some reason you actively want to add pitching prospects, just go to the next guy until you get one
|
| 4:25 |
: There are basically 3 types of prospects
|
| 4:26 |
: 1. $1 guys 2. Overpriced guys 3. Guys who fell through the cracks and are now MLB contributors |
| 4:26 |
: You can bid more for category 3
|
| 4:26 |
: and there are certainly exceptions to the rules
|
| 4:27 |
: who is the most droppable out of these batters in a points league format: franmil, puig, meadows, eloy, hunter dozier?
|
| 4:27 |
: Puig seems to be waking up
|
| 4:28 |
: Dozier’s still going
|
| 4:28 |
: Meadows shows no signs of slowing
|
| 4:28 |
: Franmil has a top 10 HR projection despite some PT limits
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| 4:29 |
: Jimenez, despite possibly the most physical ability of the batch, is clearly the weak link right now
|
| 4:29 |
: You should be able to trade him though
|
| 4:29 |
: DJ stewart was crushing AAA. You adding in 12 tm leagues? Or watching?
|
| 4:29 |
: If he gets full PT for ROS, what kind of upside (in terms of HR/OBP/SB) does DJ Stewart offer owners?
|
| 4:30 |
: So, I think this is a case of a mature hitter feasting on weaker competition. I’m offput by a high swinging strike rate and merely decent HR total despite all the favorable conditions
|
| 4:31 |
: I think for 12-team, he’s not more than a streamer
|
| 4:31 |
: Maybe watchlist him
|
| 4:31 |
: I’d been planning on packaging Austin Meadow to acquire an ace in my dynasty H2H points league. But he just keeps hitting and producing and his pts/g has been top-10 all year. Has he reached his peak trade-value or can his value still rise?
|
| 4:31 |
: He’s probably peaked
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| 4:31 |
: The bigger issue is finding a pitcher of comparable value
|
| 4:31 |
: I’d be hard pressed to identify one right now
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| 4:32 |
: Try and trade for Bauer while he is all out of sorts? Banking on him tinkering back to studly?
|
| 4:32 |
: We exist in pitcher hell
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| 4:32 |
: It’s as good a bet as any
|
| 4:32 |
: I’d love to offer a more proactive and positively phrased answer
|
| 4:33 |
: But I’ve come to believe the answer to pitching this year is to close your eyes and pray to Willians
|
| 4:33 |
: Fwiw I got judge for cutch
|
| 4:33 |
: This is light but much more in line with my expectations
|
| 4:34 |
: Previously somebody asked what to pay for Judge in redraft and said his offer of Alonso was already rejected.
|
| 4:34 |
: You were right about Christian Walker. That is all
|
| 4:34 |
: I’m going to take this victory lap because it’s become damned hard to be right about anything for predictable reasons
|
| 4:35 |
: Everything is squirmy this year. There are no truths
|
| 4:35 |
: What are the chances of Will Smith (LAD) staying in the majors for more than two weeks? I have a lot of injuries in my NL-only roster and could fit him into the lineup easily. Is it worth spending ~20% FAAB on him?
|
| 4:36 |
: I think the odds are pretty low, but that’s entirely based on uncertainty about the Dodgers plans
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| 4:36 |
: Long term, they obviously have to decide what they have in Smith and Keibert
|
| 4:36 |
: So they have incentive to give Smith a long look while the division is relatively under control
|
| 4:37 |
: And they could have also decided to press eject on Barnes
|
| 4:37 |
: fwiw, Ruiz is merely treading water in Double-A
|
| 4:37 |
: And Smith is the better-regarded receiver
|
| 4:37 |
: is there really anything different with scherzer this season? all the underlying stats i see look roughly the same. it’s just that damn babip is completely insane.
|
| 4:38 |
: Something is probably different. This happened a few years back for an extended stint
|
| 4:38 |
: He was very homer prone then
|
| 4:38 |
: I agree it’s something not easily found on a FG page
|
| 4:38 |
: And I haven’t dug deeper as I personally own only 1 share
|
| 4:38 |
: whats touki’s role next season ?
|
| 4:39 |
: Well, long term, I’m confident he’s a reliever
|
| 4:39 |
: Whether that’s next year remains to be seen
|
| 4:39 |
: And is he a good reliever or just a guy? That’s also unclear.
|
| 4:39 |
: Is Christin Stewart…. Going to hit again?
|
| 4:40 |
: The Tigers jumped started Jeimer with a quick demotion
|
| 4:40 |
: He’s expected to be recalled any day now
|
| 4:40 |
: I think Stewart could also use a restorative demotion
|
| 4:40 |
: He sort of had one while rehabbing, but that was in High-A
|
| 4:41 |
: Triple-A would be a better place for him to work on making more consistent contact
|
| 4:41 |
: The good news is his combo of pulled fly balls can turn hot very fast
|
| 4:41 |
: I mostly advise patience, subject to your league depth
|
| 4:42 |
: Regarding pitcher hell, I have Luis Castillo, Degrom, G. Cole, and I am afraid to watch every start… I practically expect one of them to implode every week. I hate this juiced ball.
|
| 4:43 |
: I’m afraid of Lyles, Turnbull, and Thornton on my rosters. Can I trade them to you?
|
| 4:44 |
: Let me ask another way…I guess what I’m more interested in…what do you expect from Didi in his return?
|
| 4:44 |
: Well, injured guys sometimes are rusty, or not rusty, or still kinda injured, or playing very carefully and thus less-well.
|
| 4:45 |
: Mean/median expectation should be 2018 Didi. And honestly, I’d throw out his April data.
|
| 4:46 |
: Re Pivetta: Are you more so hoping some time down will have helped him reach what potential he always had, or is there something different that might indicate that as an outcome?
|
| 4:46 |
: I regret to report I have no new information related to a reason why now Pivetta might be better than April Pivetta
|
| 4:46 |
: His command seems to be back in 2017 mode which is to say in the area of a 40 to 45 grade on the 20/80 scale
|
| 4:46 |
: Last year he was more 55/60 which was a huge surprise
|
| 4:47 |
: Somebody, maybe Alex Chamberlain, wrote about how very frequently command gainers immediately relinquish it in the next season
|
| 4:49 |
: Which frankly surprised me. I personally went from 25 to 30 grade command in college, took 5 years off, and magically came back with legit 65-grade spot-sniping. It’s stuck for five years. I figured pitchers just aged into command and held it.
|
| 4:49 |
: Musgrove an easy sell at this point?
|
| 4:49 |
: Ha, good luck selling him to anybody
|
| 4:49 |
: Top 5 fantasy pitchers right now?
|
| 4:49 |
: Do relievers count?
|
| 4:49 |
: I’d probably draft it as Verlander, Cole, Scherzer, deGrom, and Berrios
|
| 4:50 |
: Corbin, Snell, Grienke, Castillo, Strasburg, and a few others on the short list
|
| 4:50 |
: Ottoneu 5×5 – 74$ Trout for 9$ Corbin, 8$ Alex Reyes, 3$ Jose Martinez. Thoughts?
|
| 4:50 |
: Gimme Trout!
|
| 4:51 |
: Literally nothing I want to keep in the other side
|
| 4:51 |
: If we’re talking Trout for keepers
|
| 4:51 |
: You should be getting like a $3 Eloy or Hiura plus at least 2 more nice pieces
|
| 4:51 |
: Assuming you’re the one selling Trout
|
| 4:52 |
: If it’s the other direction, you’re in heist mode
|
| 4:52 |
: Trade Rizzo and Canning for P. Corbin. Have Smoak and Gallo to replace Rizzo at 1B. Thoughts on this trade? Thanks Brad
|
| 4:52 |
: It’s an aggressive attempt to solve a pitching issue with one of the 10 guys who’s supposed to be good and IS good.
|
| 4:52 |
: I have no problem with it
|
| 4:52 |
: Do you think the Dodgers would try to move Pollack’s contract now that Pederson and Verdugo are going crazy?
|
| 4:53 |
: Nope
|
| 4:53 |
: I think they’ll juggle everything like they always do
|
| 4:53 |
: Still like Yandy Diaz or is he just a replacement level player?
|
| 4:53 |
: He’s better than rep level
|
| 4:53 |
: More like 2 wins
|
| 4:53 |
: And yes, I like him
|
| 4:53 |
: I’d like him if he was rep level because he’s damned interesting
|
| 4:54 |
: Christian Stewart is, and always has been JAG. He had a hot streak….. that’s it
|
| 4:54 |
: That raw power, decent contact skills, and 50% fly ball rate are just too promising to label him as a guy
|
| 4:55 |
: If you’re referring to his total set of tools, they’re bland
|
| 4:55 |
: I agree
|
| 4:55 |
: But for fantasy purposes, they’re bland in a 30 HR kind of way
|
| 4:55 |
: FYI – the Tigers have just recalled Candelario
|
| 4:55 |
: boom
|
| 4:55 |
: My team this year includes Judge, Stanton, T. Turner, Blackmon and Springer. Just needed to get that out.
|
| 4:55 |
: to your suggestion of trying to trade eloy…what kind of SP could i reasonably try to get back in return? points league
|
| 4:56 |
: My goto target is Charlie Morton
|
| 4:56 |
: Because he’s typically undervalued.
|
| 4:57 |
: The challenge with pitchers is… well
|
| 4:57 |
: We’ve coined and talked about The Glob plenty on FanGraphs
|
| 4:57 |
: If you don’t grab above The Glob, then it’s a dart throw
|
| 4:57 |
: Some of the spots are regarded as better than others, but actual value is still roughly the same
|
| 4:58 |
: So, you can probably grab one of the better-regarded Glob Guys
|
| 4:58 |
: but he’ll still be a Glob Guy
|
| 4:58 |
: Which side you like in trade? Kris Bryant for Devers and Mike Minor?
|
| 4:58 |
: Bryant, unless you really need the pitching
|
| 4:58 |
: Is Renato Nunez a 30 HR guy now?
|
| 4:58 |
: Who isn’t?
|
| 4:59 |
: The time you take and the quality of your response in these chats is great. I’m really appreciative of your input here, and without it I doubt I’d still be on this website for fantasy baseball help (regular baseball articles aside)
|
| 5:00 |
: Hey Kirk, I appreciate it. I did, however, edit your comment to be friendlier.
|
| 5:00 |
: What’s your overall policy on trading for injured players? Do you view these as a “buy low”, or do you steer clear?
|
| 5:00 |
: I definitely approach them opportunistically
|
| 5:01 |
: I pretty much only approach trading from an arbitrage perspective. I’m looking for divergences of valuation.
|
| 5:01 |
: I’m not shy about admitting it to anybody, but some people take it the wrong way.
|
| 5:02 |
: If my IL spot is full should I drop guys like Clevinger and Upton
|
| 5:02 |
: depends on opportunity cost. i.e. who are you picking up and what will the provide compared with a future healthy guy
|
| 5:02 |
: J.D. Davis or Bryan Reynolds RoS?
|
| 5:02 |
: Davis
|
| 5:02 |
: Time to wrap it up. I’ve been informed I must attend a wine sale asap
|
| 5:02 |
: Who is a roughly equal value pitcher for Josh Donaldson at the moment?
|
| 5:03 |
: Uh, I find myself going back to Charlie Morton again
|
| 5:03 |
: Why did the Yankees sign Stanton instead of JD Mart?
|
| 5:03 |
: They didn’t really. They traded for Stanton because Derek Jeter waved him in front of their noses for peanuts. At the time, Stanton was a better asset than JDM. Shit happens as they say
|
| 5:03 |
: In a roto redraft are you dropping Hiura for Jeimer or C. Stewart?
|
| 5:04 |
: Not Stewart right now
|
| 5:04 |
: Probably not Jeimer yet either
|
| 5:04 |
: I’d rather hope Keston figures it out
|
| 5:04 |
: Where would you rank Matt Chapman ROS? Top 30 hitter?
|
| 5:04 |
: Yes, somewhere up there
|
| 5:04 |
: …are the Dbacks really going to play Alex Avila over Carson Kelly even after dumping JR Murphy?
|
| 5:05 |
: I guess so. It’s kind of irresponsible for Avila to be catching given his concussion issues
|
| 5:05 |
: You can edit our comments???
|
| 5:05 |
: :slow grin:
|
| 5:05 |
: Does Devers have 40hr potential or does his low FB rate make it unlikely he’ll reach that potential?
|
| 5:06 |
: No, 40 is massively aggressive for a lefty at Fenway
|
| 5:06 |
: Rank these 3rd basemen in a keeper setting: Sano, Vladdy, Devers
|
| 5:06 |
: Vladdy, Devers, Sano
|
| 5:06 |
: Are you buying that Hunter Dozier can hit .280avg with 30 homers?
|
| 5:06 |
: Maybe more like .272 and 28 HR?
|
| 5:06 |
: live & die with j-ram… right?
|
| 5:06 |
: Yes
|
| 5:06 |
: Muncy or H. Dozier? ROS?
|
| 5:06 |
: Oh, that’s tricky
|
| 5:07 |
: I’d poll it if I wasn’t about to press End Chat
|
| 5:07 |
: Gonna say Dozier only because of assured playing time
|
| 5:08 |
: Ok folks, that’s it. You should join today’s The Daily Grind Invitational on FantasyDraft. It’s a $2 no rake GPP which means the site isn’t taking a slice. And it’s guaranteed prize so maybe the site will end up paying more than the entries.
|
| 5:08 |
:
We’re running a healthy overlay in today’s TDGI GPP on @FantasyDraft.
direct link: fantasydraft.com/contest/133351… |
You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam