Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 4/23/2019

by Brad Johnson

April 23, 2019

We chatted. Past tense. Here’s a transcript.

4:00	Brad Johnson: Welcome folks, we’ll get started in a moment

4:01	Franmillionaire: Who is your preference in 12-team 5×5 H2H: Kepler or Franmil? Franmil’s impressive x-stats are intriguing but I’m not sure how to weigh them.

4:01	Brad Johnson: I’d bet on Franmil hitting the jackpot

4:02	Brad Johnson: because the prize is far tastier and you can always re-roll later

4:02	Vic: How many members of the Twins’ and Phillies’ bullpen will record 10+ saves

4:02	Brad Johnson: Three each feels reasonable

4:02	Brad Johnson: Probably set the line at 2.5 apiece

4:02	Brad Johnson: Now where it gets really interesting is at the 5 saves level

4:03	Tommy La Sort of: I feel it in my gut that Flaherty is about to take a step towards ace status this season. What do you think about him?

4:03	Brad Johnson: I sent out “buy low” offers in every league prior to yesterday’s start

4:03	Brad Johnson: His velocity is up, his stuff is dead filthy

4:03	Brad Johnson: All he needs to do is cure the homeritis

4:04	Brad Johnson: He’s a fringe top 5 pitcher for me right now

4:04	Vic: Happy with my Chris Bassitt pick up. Who else (SPs) on waivers in most 15 team leagues is worth a look?

4:04	Brad Johnson: Homer Bailey and Erik Swanson spring to mind

4:04	Dean: Do you think Max Fried is a legit top-50 arm? More than that? Less?

4:05	Brad Johnson: That’s around where I’d have him right now

4:05	Brad Johnson: The Glob has devolved into a glob

4:05	Brad Johnson: which encompasses basically all pitchers

4:05	Brad Johnson: Ask me a week from now and I could be completely out. Or all in

4:06	Pine Tar Monster : What do you think is going on with Travis Shaw and do you think he’ll turn it around? I heard he had an early HBP on the hand so maybe he’s hurt?

4:06	Brad Johnson: Shaw is very weird

4:06	Brad Johnson: His SwStr% and K-rate are way worse than his norms. But everything else is the same.

4:06	Brad Johnson: And it’s almost impossible to maintain hard contact, batted ball distributions, and plate patience while also getting MUCH worse at making contact.

4:07	Brad Johnson: One of those peripheral areas will either eventually show an issue. Or he’ll strikeout normally.

4:07	Jimmy: Devers for Bieber in a dynsasty points league, which side would you prefer?

4:07	Brad Johnson: I almost always side with the bat. It depends on league depth though

4:07	Home Alonso: do you think Michael Chavis and Darwinzon Hernandez stay with the big league club, or are they heading back to the minors soon?

4:08	Brad Johnson: Injuries and performance could prop the door open, but they’re temporary patches at the moment. In particular, Pedroia is due back any day

4:08	Striking out the side : Thank you for your bravery this week, you are correct.

4:08	OddBall Herrera: Who do you like better in a 12 teamer: Clint Frazier, Vogelbach, or The Franimal?

4:08	Brad Johnson: Frazier short term, Franmil season

4:08	BringBacktheBrown: With D.Murphy close to returning, is Hampson on his way down?

4:08	Brad Johnson: It’s quite possible. I don’t pretend to have any insight into the Rockies thought processes

4:09	Vic: During most weeks, who would you start more often as OF #5, Pinder or A Frazier?

4:09	Brad Johnson: Frazier for me

4:09	Brad Johnson: Though maybe not if Tucker starts taking leadoff starts from him. So far, it looks like Frazier will retain the role.

4:09	Matt W: Do you share Paul’s optimism on Syndergaard? He ranked him SP7. The commentariat, uh, disagreed.

4:09	Brad Johnson: I’m the resident Thor-doubter

4:10	Brad Johnson: My concern relates to how the game has changed while he was mostly injured

4:11	Brad Johnson: His early career success was mostly fueled by iffy command fastballs overpowering hitters.

4:11	Brad Johnson: Hitters have adjusted to those. He also had that issue with throwing inside.

4:12	Brad Johnson: Just by eyeballs, he seems to be doing better with that this year

4:12	Brad Johnson: But I could be wrong.

4:12	Brad Johnson: I’ll say this though, I’m not any more concerned about his health as the next pitcher

4:12	Brad Johnson: That’s a false narrative.

4:13	Guest: Please tell me something good about Tim Anderson. Is he really gonna end up batting .240?

4:13	Brad Johnson: I really can’t. I don’t see any sign he’s not the same swing-at-anything hitter. Maybe opposing pitchers forgot they don’t have to pitch to him to get him out

4:13	Andrew: How worried should we be about Rafael Devers? Are his lack of power and low launch angle are serious concerns or still in the realm of sss?

4:13	Brad Johnson: Probably a mechanical funk

4:13	Brad Johnson: I’m not too concerned in a dynasty setting.

4:14	Brad Johnson: In redraft, you may want to explore options

4:14	Simba : Dynasty keep forever. Mikolas and Eaton for Nate Lowe and Verdugo. Which side do you prefer?

4:14	Brad Johnson: The youths

4:14	Brad Johnson: I got my first live look at Lowe recently

4:14	Brad Johnson: I understand why scouts aren’t enamored. He’s got 20 grade speed and doesn’t try to hide it.

4:15	Brad Johnson: I doubt he’ll age well. That said, EASY super low effort hard contact to all fields

4:16	Brad Johnson: He’s going to hit

4:17	Dr. Funk: Christian Walker or Muncy ROS?

4:17	Brad Johnson: EZ Muncy

4:17	Brad Johnson: I’m unconvinced Walker should be in the majors

4:17	Ryan: You like Brandon Nimmo, Stephen Piscotty, or Brandon Lowe as the best OF option?

4:18	Brad Johnson: I’d probably take Nimmo, but they all have different category profiles so it depends on what you want.

4:18	The Other Dozier: Is Hunter Dozier here to stay with that new plate discipline profile?

4:18	Brad Johnson: I think in a sense, yes

4:18	Brad Johnson: Obviously there’s some regression ahead based on extreme outcomes and also opponents adjusting

4:18	Torn: Trade stripling for caleb in qs?

4:18	Brad Johnson: Can do. But Smith has so many tough matchups

4:19	Brad Johnson: I really like that Marlins staff, but I’m avoiding all of them

4:19	NotBurtReynolds: How are you handling David Robertson in a 15-team mixed? In addition to being currently hurt with a flexor strain, he’s also pulled 0 saves out of the Philly bullpen swamp..Any reason to hold?

4:19	Brad Johnson: Depends on your opportunity cost

4:20	Brad Johnson: If you can stash him without really losing out on anything, I probably would

4:20	Brad Johnson: But if he’s costing you a chance to accrue some stats you otherwise won’t get, I see no reason to cling

4:20	Tommy Sells: How long before Ty Buttrey takes over at closer in LA?

4:20	Brad Johnson: The million dollar question

4:20	Brad Johnson: We have to wait for Allen to fold first

4:21	Brad Johnson: And honestly, the Angels need to win some games too

4:21	Brad Johnson: If they’re out of it in mid-May, they have no reason to make Buttrey more expensive in the future.

4:21	Brad Johnson: I’m kind of hoping Allen keeps scuffling and we see Buttrey promoted within a week or two

4:22	JP: Wong or Semien for IF slot?

4:22	Brad Johnson: Semien

4:22	Daz: Keep 2…..Montas, Rodon, or Lester?

4:22	Brad Johnson: Montas and Rodon

4:22	bob: 12t H2H, winker or polanco ROS

4:22	Brad Johnson: Winker. But I also want Polanco…

4:22	skee ba ba ba da bo: Is Tauchman gonna get enough PT (and be good too) to roll with for a while in an AL Only? I like that he was on y’alls’ not-fringe-five list.

4:22	Brad Johnson: I think he could be a passable play for the short term

4:23	Brad Johnson: Hicks is back soon though

4:23	Mario Mendoza: Remind me why do people think KGibson is a breakout candidate every spring?

4:23	Brad Johnson: Nobody thought Kyle Gibson was a breakout candidate this year

4:23	Brad Johnson: He already had his breakout by improving upon his slider

4:23	Mario Mendoza: Profar back to frustrating all over again. Cut or hold?

4:24	Brad Johnson: Depends on league depth

4:24	Brad Johnson: 12 team, move on. Deep or dynasty, hold.

4:24	Pumba: Josh Naylor… he see SD at all this year? What position?

4:24	Brad Johnson: Considering he’s pretty locked in at 1B, I don’t foresee it

4:25	Brad Johnson: The Padres have been pretty bold with their prospects. Do you think they’ll be bold enough to bench Hosmer?

4:26	Weenie: Is Elias Diaz worth holding since Cervelli will probably leave next year in free agency, or maybe dealt at the deadline if PIT struggles? Deep dynasty, contending next yr…

4:26	Brad Johnson: I don’t think Diaz is a special talent in any sense of the word

4:26	Brad Johnson: Since Cervelli is playing so badly, he might be reasonably decent this year though

4:27	Brad Johnson: We should at least get enough looks to form a better sense of if he should be kept

4:27	Brad Johnson: So, as it so often does, it comes down to opportunity cost

4:27	Brad Johnson: Who are you not rostering to keep Diaz?

4:27	O’Hearn, O’Mores: Ryan O’Hearn has been disappointing, even if his BB/K numbers are good. Is a turnaround o’coming or should I be o’dropping him in my AL only?

4:27	Brad Johnson: I think you have to hold in AL Only

4:27	Joh: Who will hit fewer HR in 2019: Miggy or Votto?

4:27	Brad Johnson: Let’s ask!

4:28	Brad Johnson: Fewer HR? Votto (41.2% \| 54 votes) Miggy (58.7% \| 77 votes) Total Votes: 131

4:28	Pumba: You like Kingery?

4:28	Brad Johnson: Not really. Besides actual good outcomes, I didn’t see a change worth getting excited about

4:29	Travioli: Yordan Alvarez is absolutely crushing in AAA. Chances he leapfrogs Tucker and is the Astros’ first call up? And is he worth stashing over TJ arms like Honeywell and Put in 15-team mixed?

4:29	Brad Johnson: Definitely worth stashing

4:29	Brad Johnson: I don’t think the Astros really view him as a playable OFer

4:29	Brad Johnson: So his time table is more dependent on offensive need at 1B/DH

4:29	Ser Anthony of House Dominguez: Drop Seranthony for Hansel Robles? Not desperate for saves

4:29	Brad Johnson: You can do better

4:30	Diehard G-Men: Will Dereck Rodriguez always perform better than his peripherals?

4:30	Brad Johnson: Over the winter, I came to the conclusion he’s probably a true low-BABIP pitcher

4:30	Brad Johnson: toss in Oracle Park and you’ve got yourself a stew

4:30	Skooter: Leclerq has been horrific lately. Trade him away while the gettin’s good and people still remember the hype?

4:31	Brad Johnson: I think you’re too late. Go ahead and ask around.

4:31	Brad Johnson: Remember Leclerc is a splitter guy

4:31	Brad Johnson: They ALWAYS lose feel once or twice a season

4:31	Brad Johnson: Then they usually rediscover it and go ham

4:31	Brad Johnson: So I’d buy low on Leclerc or hold

4:32	Larry: How much do you believe in Puig? Would you drop him for Hicks?

4:32	Brad Johnson: I like Hicks more, but I want to see him healthy first

4:32	Brad Johnson: and I’d be willing to risk losing Hicks to be sure he’s good to go

4:33	Mark: Is Nick Margevicius good enough to stay in the rotation all year or is he just a placeholder until one of the more highly regarded prospects step up?

4:33	Brad Johnson: Placeholder imo

4:33	Brad Johnson: The stuff is just so pedestrian

4:33	Brad Johnson: By profile, I’m reminded a little of Brent Suter

4:34	Dave: Is Buttrey even next in line? Seems like Robles has been seeing a lot of the 8th, while Buttrey has been deployed all over.

4:34	Brad Johnson: It’s hard to say. I still prefer to bet on best reliever over the long term

4:34	Brad Johnson: Buttrey is maybe a top 10 reliever leaguewide.

4:34	Brad Johnson: Robles is just a guy

4:35	Mark: Do you like Bauer or Thor more in a dynasty setup?

4:35	Brad Johnson: Bauer

4:35	AF: How much pop do you think Jeff McNeil has? What would be your over/under for RoS HR’s?

4:35	Brad Johnson: Not a ton

4:35	Brad Johnson: Maybe around 10 or 12

4:35	Brad Johnson: Assuming 600 PA or so

4:36	Brad Johnson: There’s just not much lift or hard contact

4:36	Brad Johnson: But he does get to visit CBP

4:36	He’s a Dahl: I have to cut B Dozier, H Dozier, Laureano or Kepler to activate polanco. which scrub goes to the wire?

4:37	Brad Johnson: Not Hunter is about as far as I’ve gotten in a minute of contemplation

4:37	Brad Johnson: Probably Kepler since Polanco is a OFer too

4:37	Mark: Do you think Nico Hoerner has a chance to come up and be deep league relevant this year?

4:37	Brad Johnson: It’s always hard to say with the Cubs

4:38	Brad Johnson: They’re extra careful with some guys then rush others

4:38	Brad Johnson: I like his contact skills though. Seems like they play immediately

4:38	Brad Johnson: Kind of a better Jeff McNeil maybe

4:38	Brad Johnson: (better in a real world sense)

4:38	Pumba: Verdugo someone you targeting at all?

4:39	Brad Johnson: He’s not the right fit for any of my rosters

4:39	Brad Johnson: I like him though

4:39	OF Depth: Frustrated right now with my combo of Acuna (no frustration there), Benintendi, Winker, F.Reyes, Hampson & Bauers in my 3 OF spots/DH. Whoever i continually switch out they go cold, & then the benched players heat up. Who are you everyday plays (besides Acuna)

4:39	Brad Johnson: Hampson and Bauers are the bench

4:39	Brad Johnson: Use the other 4 whenever they’re starting. Can bench Winker against tough LHP.

4:40	dprat: Correct answer re: LAA closer is Hansel Robles.

4:40	Brad Johnson: If you say so. That lasts 10 days? He’s better than Allen, but he’s still only a middle reliever

4:40	Big Tuna: Which soft tosser has the better year : Marco Gonzalez or Wade Miley?

4:41	Brad Johnson: I’ll guess… well let’s ask!

4:41	Brad Johnson: Soft Tosser of the Year Marco Gonzales (78.4% \| 69 votes) Wade Miley (21.5% \| 19 votes) Total Votes: 88

4:41	Wayne Garrett: Other than Vlad Jr, best prospect to stash for near call up?

4:41	Brad Johnson: I might be overthinking this…

4:41	Brad Johnson: I want to say Cavan Biggio

4:42	Brad Johnson: The Jays have donkey dung at 2B, Biggio is lighting up Triple-A, and they might as well try to figure out who is a building block along with Vladito. No reason to not get a head start on it

4:43	MikeZ: You said you were trying to buy low on Flaherty — what type of offers have you put out there for him?

4:43	Brad Johnson: $5 Forrest Whitley in ottoneu FGpts

4:44	Brad Johnson: I forget most of them. I honestly have too many teams so I can’t be thoughtful about anything I put out there

4:44	Brad Johnson: Some of my leaguemates are getting grumpy about it already

4:44	Name Game: Who has your favorite name in the league currently? Any prospects coming up with 70+ grade names?

4:44	Brad Johnson: You’ll never top Makesiondon Kelkboom.

4:44	Cosmo: Is Harrison Bader going to be 12 team worthy? Or is he just a guy?

4:45	Brad Johnson: Guy

4:45	Brad Johnson: Lovely real world core performer

4:45	Tom: Still believe in Voit?

4:45	Brad Johnson: Yes, as long as you’re only holding me to believing in a 125 wRC+ or so

4:45	Brad Johnson: Which is about what I believed

4:46	Infinite Wisdom: With Bichette breaking his hand, drop for C. Tucker, C. Kieboom or stash Y. Alvarez? Who will have most ROS impact in 10 team H2H Points League? Or hold Bichette, with hopes he is up to The Show after All-Star Break?

4:46	Brad Johnson: Grab the immediate production (Tucker)

4:46	Homers : Thoughts on Dylan Cease?

4:46	Brad Johnson: He appears to be very good

4:47	Brad Johnson: Maybe a better pitching prospect than Whitley and Luzardo (they were fringe top 200 picks this draft season). And he might beat ’em to the majors.

4:47	desperately clinging to the past: Any immediate thoughts on Miggy? I don’t think he looks all that bad, really! Hard Hit% is great. Starting to get more XBH. Think he can still knock out 20 taters by end of year?

4:48	Brad Johnson: We’ll see I suppose. There’s still the memory of a very good hitter trapped in that decaying body.

4:48	Matt W: Hansel Robles has an all-time great walk up hype video fwiw

4:48	Pine Needles: Would you trade Votto and Stripling for Flaherty?

4:48	Brad Johnson: Yes

4:48	Brad Johnson: In most formats anyway

4:48	Timone : Trammel or Pache?

4:48	Brad Johnson: Trammell

4:48	Brad Johnson: Pache is a real world guy

4:48	Brad Johnson: Elite defense will hold up bad AVG/OBP

4:49	Cosmo: Do you think Carter Kieboom gets the call this year?

4:49	Brad Johnson: Probably

4:49	Brad Johnson: Just depends on team need at this point

4:50	Anonymous: I hate that all the Win-Now guys are cratering. Dynasty leagues suck when the rebuild-centric prospects outperform the Votto’s, Nellie’s and JA Happs of the league.

4:50	Brad Johnson: Haha, it’s all askew

4:51	Brad Johnson: And my inquiry into Votto was met with an ask for my 2 best prospects “and it’s probably still a no”

4:51	Joe: Can Gallo sustain these contact gains or is it time to sell high?

4:51	Brad Johnson: It’s unclear. Gallo does have a long track record of successful adjustments. I’m hopeful.

4:51	Brad Johnson: But new adjustments means potential for new exploits

4:51	Brood550: Please hold me and whisper that my team will get healthy.

4:52	Brad Johnson: Be patient. Fantasy leagues are only lost in April when you give up

4:52	Brad Johnson: The best thing you can do for your place in the standings is try to win during the months of July, August, and September

4:52	Dave: Sale for Flaherty?

4:52	Brad Johnson: Now we have ourselves a CO NUN DRUM

4:52	Brad Johnson: ? Sale (61.8% \| 47 votes) Flaherty (38.1% \| 29 votes) Total Votes: 76

4:53	Brad Johnson: fwiw, my votes on the first two would have been Votto and Marco

4:53	Brad Johnson: Pretty close to pushes though

4:53	Brad Johnson: In general, if I make it a poll, I think a coin flip is a reasonable way to answer the question

4:54	TJ: Laureano was my super sleeper for 2019 and I just can’t let go…have him riding the fantasy pine after I scooped Polanco. Bench batters is bad juju in a 12 team league…think he’s still got 15/30 upside? Please!

4:54	Brad Johnson: The 30 swipes is a stretch. It was always obvious he’d probably have some issues with his bat. What I liked is his defense ensures he remains on the field so he can work through things

4:55	Brad Johnson: He’ll get hot at some point

4:55	Brad Johnson: I have to wrap up a little early today. We’ll go another 5 minutes or so

4:55	marichal: Which slumping Brewer ends up having a better year – Aguilar or Shaw?

4:55	Brad Johnson: Shaw

4:55	B: Better Tampa surger to hold for later, Lowe, or Diaz?

4:56	Brad Johnson: For later, probably Lowe. I’ve always found myself fascinated by Diaz though

4:56	Brad Johnson: And the division does have plenty of fly ball pitchers – I think that’s the main reason they acquired him

4:56	Travis: How certain are you that the Angels turn to Buttrey instead of Robles?

4:56	Brad Johnson: In the short term, not at all

4:56	Brad Johnson: Probably not even 50/50 anymore

4:57	Brad Johnson: But I’d still bet on him finishing the year with the most saves on their roster

4:57	Brad Johnson: And more importantly, the ratios play even without any saves

4:57	Z : Who is Cordell? The scouting reports are intriguing. He may have all the tools?

4:58	Brad Johnson: Except plate discipline or contact? It’s possible the White Sox have some insight into picking out ideal matchups for him. So maybe he’s a good DFS guy

4:58	Brood550: Are they going to fully turn loaisiga loose? Or will they keep monitoring his innings?

4:58	Brad Johnson: I’m sure they will monitor closely

4:58	Brad Johnson: The only players who aren’t treated with kid gloves are the fringe types

4:59	RJ: How soon is Keston Hiura going to push a struggling bat to the bench in Milwaukee?

4:59	Brad Johnson: Well, he has a 1.4% BB rate and 33.8% K rate so I’m going to say it’ll be a while

5:00	Gustavo: Hey Vlad Guerreto debut today? Really??

5:00	Brad Johnson: Not today. I think Friday is the latest rumor. Unless I missed something this afternoon.

5:00	sasha: morton for flaherty in a QS league?

5:01	Brad Johnson: EZ Flaherty

5:01	I Used To Be Mel Clarke: Would you still be holding Kyle Tucker in a 16 team, Keep 5 Forever? Or move on to someone like Cease?

5:02	Brad Johnson: Feel free to cast a net. I know that probably feels like a deep format, but if you screw up by cutting bait on a slow start like Tucker too soon, you can always find somebody almost exactly as good

5:02	Brad Johnson: I’d probably give Cease a try

5:02	Sam : Do you vote in your own polls? Do you often side with the majority?

5:02	Brad Johnson: I do not vote, and I have no collected any data

5:03	Brad Johnson: And on that note, goodnight folks. I have adventures to adventure.

Bullpen Report: April 23, 2019

Pitcher Spotlight: The Curious Case of Trevor Williams

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