Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 4/23/2019
by Brad Johnson
April 23, 2019
We chatted. Past tense. Here’s a transcript.
| 4:00 |
: Welcome folks, we’ll get started in a moment |
| 4:01 |
: Who is your preference in 12-team 5×5 H2H: Kepler or Franmil? Franmil’s impressive x-stats are intriguing but I’m not sure how to weigh them.
|
| 4:01 |
: I’d bet on Franmil hitting the jackpot
|
| 4:02 |
: because the prize is far tastier and you can always re-roll later
|
| 4:02 |
: How many members of the Twins’ and Phillies’ bullpen will record 10+ saves |
| 4:02 |
: Three each feels reasonable
|
| 4:02 |
: Probably set the line at 2.5 apiece
|
| 4:02 |
: Now where it gets really interesting is at the 5 saves level
|
| 4:03 |
: I feel it in my gut that Flaherty is about to take a step towards ace status this season. What do you think about him?
|
| 4:03 |
: I sent out “buy low” offers in every league prior to yesterday’s start |
| 4:03 |
: His velocity is up, his stuff is dead filthy
|
| 4:03 |
: All he needs to do is cure the homeritis
|
| 4:04 |
: He’s a fringe top 5 pitcher for me right now
|
| 4:04 |
: Happy with my Chris Bassitt pick up. Who else (SPs) on waivers in most 15 team leagues is worth a look?
|
| 4:04 |
: Homer Bailey and Erik Swanson spring to mind
|
| 4:04 |
: Do you think Max Fried is a legit top-50 arm? More than that? Less? |
| 4:05 |
: That’s around where I’d have him right now
|
| 4:05 |
: The Glob has devolved into a glob
|
| 4:05 |
: which encompasses basically all pitchers
|
| 4:05 |
: Ask me a week from now and I could be completely out. Or all in
|
| 4:06 |
: What do you think is going on with Travis Shaw and do you think he’ll turn it around? I heard he had an early HBP on the hand so maybe he’s hurt?
|
| 4:06 |
: Shaw is very weird |
| 4:06 |
: His SwStr% and K-rate are way worse than his norms. But everything else is the same.
|
| 4:06 |
: And it’s almost impossible to maintain hard contact, batted ball distributions, and plate patience while also getting MUCH worse at making contact.
|
| 4:07 |
: One of those peripheral areas will either eventually show an issue. Or he’ll strikeout normally.
|
| 4:07 |
: Devers for Bieber in a dynsasty points league, which side would you prefer?
|
| 4:07 |
: I almost always side with the bat. It depends on league depth though
|
| 4:07 |
: do you think Michael Chavis and Darwinzon Hernandez stay with the big league club, or are they heading back to the minors soon? |
| 4:08 |
: Injuries and performance could prop the door open, but they’re temporary patches at the moment. In particular, Pedroia is due back any day
|
| 4:08 |
: Thank you for your bravery this week, you are correct.
|
| 4:08 |
: Who do you like better in a 12 teamer: Clint Frazier, Vogelbach, or The Franimal?
|
| 4:08 |
: Frazier short term, Franmil season
|
| 4:08 |
: With D.Murphy close to returning, is Hampson on his way down?
|
| 4:08 |
: It’s quite possible. I don’t pretend to have any insight into the Rockies thought processes |
| 4:09 |
: During most weeks, who would you start more often as OF #5, Pinder or A Frazier?
|
| 4:09 |
: Frazier for me
|
| 4:09 |
: Though maybe not if Tucker starts taking leadoff starts from him. So far, it looks like Frazier will retain the role.
|
| 4:09 |
: Do you share Paul’s optimism on Syndergaard? He ranked him SP7. The commentariat, uh, disagreed.
|
| 4:09 |
: I’m the resident Thor-doubter
|
| 4:10 |
: My concern relates to how the game has changed while he was mostly injured |
| 4:11 |
: His early career success was mostly fueled by iffy command fastballs overpowering hitters.
|
| 4:11 |
: Hitters have adjusted to those. He also had that issue with throwing inside.
|
| 4:12 |
: Just by eyeballs, he seems to be doing better with that this year
|
| 4:12 |
: But I could be wrong.
|
| 4:12 |
: I’ll say this though, I’m not any more concerned about his health as the next pitcher
|
| 4:12 |
: That’s a false narrative. |
| 4:13 |
: Please tell me something good about Tim Anderson. Is he really gonna end up batting .240?
|
| 4:13 |
: I really can’t. I don’t see any sign he’s not the same swing-at-anything hitter. Maybe opposing pitchers forgot they don’t have to pitch to him to get him out
|
| 4:13 |
: How worried should we be about Rafael Devers? Are his lack of power and low launch angle are serious concerns or still in the realm of sss?
|
| 4:13 |
: Probably a mechanical funk
|
| 4:13 |
: I’m not too concerned in a dynasty setting.
|
| 4:14 |
: In redraft, you may want to explore options |
| 4:14 |
: Dynasty keep forever. Mikolas and Eaton for Nate Lowe and Verdugo. Which side do you prefer?
|
| 4:14 |
: The youths
|
| 4:14 |
: I got my first live look at Lowe recently
|
| 4:14 |
: I understand why scouts aren’t enamored. He’s got 20 grade speed and doesn’t try to hide it.
|
| 4:15 |
: I doubt he’ll age well. That said, EASY super low effort hard contact to all fields
|
| 4:16 |
: He’s going to hit
|
| 4:17 |
: Christian Walker or Muncy ROS?
|
| 4:17 |
: EZ Muncy
|
| 4:17 |
: I’m unconvinced Walker should be in the majors
|
| 4:17 |
: You like Brandon Nimmo, Stephen Piscotty, or Brandon Lowe as the best OF option?
|
| 4:18 |
: I’d probably take Nimmo, but they all have different category profiles so it depends on what you want.
|
| 4:18 |
: Is Hunter Dozier here to stay with that new plate discipline profile?
|
| 4:18 |
: I think in a sense, yes
|
| 4:18 |
: Obviously there’s some regression ahead based on extreme outcomes and also opponents adjusting
|
| 4:18 |
: Trade stripling for caleb in qs?
|
| 4:18 |
: Can do. But Smith has so many tough matchups
|
| 4:19 |
: I really like that Marlins staff, but I’m avoiding all of them
|
| 4:19 |
: How are you handling David Robertson in a 15-team mixed? In addition to being currently hurt with a flexor strain, he’s also pulled 0 saves out of the Philly bullpen swamp..Any reason to hold?
|
| 4:19 |
: Depends on your opportunity cost
|
| 4:20 |
: If you can stash him without really losing out on anything, I probably would
|
| 4:20 |
: But if he’s costing you a chance to accrue some stats you otherwise won’t get, I see no reason to cling
|
| 4:20 |
: How long before Ty Buttrey takes over at closer in LA?
|
| 4:20 |
: The million dollar question
|
| 4:20 |
: We have to wait for Allen to fold first
|
| 4:21 |
: And honestly, the Angels need to win some games too
|
| 4:21 |
: If they’re out of it in mid-May, they have no reason to make Buttrey more expensive in the future.
|
| 4:21 |
: I’m kind of hoping Allen keeps scuffling and we see Buttrey promoted within a week or two
|
| 4:22 |
: Wong or Semien for IF slot?
|
| 4:22 |
: Semien
|
| 4:22 |
: Keep 2…..Montas, Rodon, or Lester?
|
| 4:22 |
: Montas and Rodon
|
| 4:22 |
: 12t H2H, winker or polanco ROS
|
| 4:22 |
: Winker. But I also want Polanco…
|
| 4:22 |
: Is Tauchman gonna get enough PT (and be good too) to roll with for a while in an AL Only? I like that he was on y’alls’ not-fringe-five list.
|
| 4:22 |
: I think he could be a passable play for the short term
|
| 4:23 |
: Hicks is back soon though
|
| 4:23 |
: Remind me why do people think KGibson is a breakout candidate every spring?
|
| 4:23 |
: Nobody thought Kyle Gibson was a breakout candidate this year
|
| 4:23 |
: He already had his breakout by improving upon his slider
|
| 4:23 |
: Profar back to frustrating all over again. Cut or hold?
|
| 4:24 |
: Depends on league depth
|
| 4:24 |
: 12 team, move on. Deep or dynasty, hold.
|
| 4:24 |
: Josh Naylor… he see SD at all this year? What position?
|
| 4:24 |
: Considering he’s pretty locked in at 1B, I don’t foresee it
|
| 4:25 |
: The Padres have been pretty bold with their prospects. Do you think they’ll be bold enough to bench Hosmer?
|
| 4:26 |
: Is Elias Diaz worth holding since Cervelli will probably leave next year in free agency, or maybe dealt at the deadline if PIT struggles? Deep dynasty, contending next yr…
|
| 4:26 |
: I don’t think Diaz is a special talent in any sense of the word
|
| 4:26 |
: Since Cervelli is playing so badly, he might be reasonably decent this year though
|
| 4:27 |
: We should at least get enough looks to form a better sense of if he should be kept
|
| 4:27 |
: So, as it so often does, it comes down to opportunity cost
|
| 4:27 |
: Who are you not rostering to keep Diaz?
|
| 4:27 |
: Ryan O’Hearn has been disappointing, even if his BB/K numbers are good. Is a turnaround o’coming or should I be o’dropping him in my AL only?
|
| 4:27 |
: I think you have to hold in AL Only
|
| 4:27 |
: Who will hit fewer HR in 2019: Miggy or Votto?
|
| 4:27 |
: Let’s ask!
|
| 4:28 |
:
Fewer HR?
Votto (41.2% | 54 votes)
Miggy (58.7% | 77 votes)
Total Votes: 131
|
| 4:28 |
: You like Kingery?
|
| 4:28 |
: Not really. Besides actual good outcomes, I didn’t see a change worth getting excited about
|
| 4:29 |
: Yordan Alvarez is absolutely crushing in AAA. Chances he leapfrogs Tucker and is the Astros’ first call up? And is he worth stashing over TJ arms like Honeywell and Put in 15-team mixed?
|
| 4:29 |
: Definitely worth stashing
|
| 4:29 |
: I don’t think the Astros really view him as a playable OFer
|
| 4:29 |
: So his time table is more dependent on offensive need at 1B/DH
|
| 4:29 |
: Drop Seranthony for Hansel Robles? Not desperate for saves
|
| 4:29 |
: You can do better
|
| 4:30 |
: Will Dereck Rodriguez always perform better than his peripherals?
|
| 4:30 |
: Over the winter, I came to the conclusion he’s probably a true low-BABIP pitcher
|
| 4:30 |
: toss in Oracle Park and you’ve got yourself a stew
|
| 4:30 |
: Leclerq has been horrific lately. Trade him away while the gettin’s good and people still remember the hype?
|
| 4:31 |
: I think you’re too late. Go ahead and ask around.
|
| 4:31 |
: Remember Leclerc is a splitter guy
|
| 4:31 |
: They ALWAYS lose feel once or twice a season
|
| 4:31 |
: Then they usually rediscover it and go ham
|
| 4:31 |
: So I’d buy low on Leclerc or hold
|
| 4:32 |
: How much do you believe in Puig? Would you drop him for Hicks?
|
| 4:32 |
: I like Hicks more, but I want to see him healthy first
|
| 4:32 |
: and I’d be willing to risk losing Hicks to be sure he’s good to go
|
| 4:33 |
: Is Nick Margevicius good enough to stay in the rotation all year or is he just a placeholder until one of the more highly regarded prospects step up?
|
| 4:33 |
: Placeholder imo
|
| 4:33 |
: The stuff is just so pedestrian
|
| 4:33 |
: By profile, I’m reminded a little of Brent Suter
|
| 4:34 |
: Is Buttrey even next in line? Seems like Robles has been seeing a lot of the 8th, while Buttrey has been deployed all over.
|
| 4:34 |
: It’s hard to say. I still prefer to bet on best reliever over the long term
|
| 4:34 |
: Buttrey is maybe a top 10 reliever leaguewide.
|
| 4:34 |
: Robles is just a guy
|
| 4:35 |
: Do you like Bauer or Thor more in a dynasty setup?
|
| 4:35 |
: Bauer
|
| 4:35 |
: How much pop do you think Jeff McNeil has? What would be your over/under for RoS HR’s?
|
| 4:35 |
: Not a ton
|
| 4:35 |
: Maybe around 10 or 12
|
| 4:35 |
: Assuming 600 PA or so
|
| 4:36 |
: There’s just not much lift or hard contact
|
| 4:36 |
: But he does get to visit CBP
|
| 4:36 |
: I have to cut B Dozier, H Dozier, Laureano or Kepler to activate polanco. which scrub goes to the wire?
|
| 4:37 |
: Not Hunter is about as far as I’ve gotten in a minute of contemplation
|
| 4:37 |
: Probably Kepler since Polanco is a OFer too
|
| 4:37 |
: Do you think Nico Hoerner has a chance to come up and be deep league relevant this year?
|
| 4:37 |
: It’s always hard to say with the Cubs
|
| 4:38 |
: They’re extra careful with some guys then rush others
|
| 4:38 |
: I like his contact skills though. Seems like they play immediately
|
| 4:38 |
: Kind of a better Jeff McNeil maybe
|
| 4:38 |
: (better in a real world sense)
|
| 4:38 |
: Verdugo someone you targeting at all?
|
| 4:39 |
: He’s not the right fit for any of my rosters
|
| 4:39 |
: I like him though
|
| 4:39 |
: Frustrated right now with my combo of Acuna (no frustration there), Benintendi, Winker, F.Reyes, Hampson & Bauers in my 3 OF spots/DH. Whoever i continually switch out they go cold, & then the benched players heat up. Who are you everyday plays (besides Acuna)
|
| 4:39 |
: Hampson and Bauers are the bench
|
| 4:39 |
: Use the other 4 whenever they’re starting. Can bench Winker against tough LHP.
|
| 4:40 |
: Correct answer re: LAA closer is Hansel Robles.
|
| 4:40 |
: If you say so. That lasts 10 days? He’s better than Allen, but he’s still only a middle reliever
|
| 4:40 |
: Which soft tosser has the better year : Marco Gonzalez or Wade Miley?
|
| 4:41 |
: I’ll guess… well let’s ask!
|
| 4:41 |
:
Soft Tosser of the Year
Marco Gonzales (78.4% | 69 votes)
Wade Miley (21.5% | 19 votes)
Total Votes: 88
|
| 4:41 |
: Other than Vlad Jr, best prospect to stash for near call up?
|
| 4:41 |
: I might be overthinking this…
|
| 4:41 |
: I want to say Cavan Biggio
|
| 4:42 |
: The Jays have donkey dung at 2B, Biggio is lighting up Triple-A, and they might as well try to figure out who is a building block along with Vladito. No reason to not get a head start on it
|
| 4:43 |
: You said you were trying to buy low on Flaherty — what type of offers have you put out there for him?
|
| 4:43 |
: $5 Forrest Whitley in ottoneu FGpts
|
| 4:44 |
: I forget most of them. I honestly have too many teams so I can’t be thoughtful about anything I put out there
|
| 4:44 |
: Some of my leaguemates are getting grumpy about it already
|
| 4:44 |
: Who has your favorite name in the league currently? Any prospects coming up with 70+ grade names?
|
| 4:44 |
: You’ll never top Makesiondon Kelkboom.
|
| 4:44 |
: Is Harrison Bader going to be 12 team worthy? Or is he just a guy?
|
| 4:45 |
: Guy
|
| 4:45 |
: Lovely real world core performer
|
| 4:45 |
: Still believe in Voit?
|
| 4:45 |
: Yes, as long as you’re only holding me to believing in a 125 wRC+ or so
|
| 4:45 |
: Which is about what I believed
|
| 4:46 |
: With Bichette breaking his hand, drop for C. Tucker, C. Kieboom or stash Y. Alvarez? Who will have most ROS impact in 10 team H2H Points League? Or hold Bichette, with hopes he is up to The Show after All-Star Break?
|
| 4:46 |
: Grab the immediate production (Tucker)
|
| 4:46 |
: Thoughts on Dylan Cease?
|
| 4:46 |
: He appears to be very good
|
| 4:47 |
: Maybe a better pitching prospect than Whitley and Luzardo (they were fringe top 200 picks this draft season). And he might beat ’em to the majors.
|
| 4:47 |
: Any immediate thoughts on Miggy? I don’t think he looks all that bad, really! Hard Hit% is great. Starting to get more XBH. Think he can still knock out 20 taters by end of year?
|
| 4:48 |
: We’ll see I suppose. There’s still the memory of a very good hitter trapped in that decaying body.
|
| 4:48 |
: Hansel Robles has an all-time great walk up hype video fwiw
|
| 4:48 |
: Would you trade Votto and Stripling for Flaherty?
|
| 4:48 |
: Yes
|
| 4:48 |
: In most formats anyway
|
| 4:48 |
: Trammel or Pache?
|
| 4:48 |
: Trammell
|
| 4:48 |
: Pache is a real world guy
|
| 4:48 |
: Elite defense will hold up bad AVG/OBP
|
| 4:49 |
: Do you think Carter Kieboom gets the call this year?
|
| 4:49 |
: Probably
|
| 4:49 |
: Just depends on team need at this point
|
| 4:50 |
: I hate that all the Win-Now guys are cratering. Dynasty leagues suck when the rebuild-centric prospects outperform the Votto’s, Nellie’s and JA Happs of the league.
|
| 4:50 |
: Haha, it’s all askew
|
| 4:51 |
: And my inquiry into Votto was met with an ask for my 2 best prospects “and it’s probably still a no”
|
| 4:51 |
: Can Gallo sustain these contact gains or is it time to sell high?
|
| 4:51 |
: It’s unclear. Gallo does have a long track record of successful adjustments. I’m hopeful.
|
| 4:51 |
: But new adjustments means potential for new exploits
|
| 4:51 |
: Please hold me and whisper that my team will get healthy.
|
| 4:52 |
: Be patient. Fantasy leagues are only lost in April when you give up
|
| 4:52 |
: The best thing you can do for your place in the standings is try to win during the months of July, August, and September
|
| 4:52 |
: Sale for Flaherty?
|
| 4:52 |
: Now we have ourselves a CO NUN DRUM
|
| 4:52 |
:
?
Sale (61.8% | 47 votes)
Flaherty (38.1% | 29 votes)
Total Votes: 76
|
| 4:53 |
: fwiw, my votes on the first two would have been Votto and Marco
|
| 4:53 |
: Pretty close to pushes though
|
| 4:53 |
: In general, if I make it a poll, I think a coin flip is a reasonable way to answer the question
|
| 4:54 |
: Laureano was my super sleeper for 2019 and I just can’t let go…have him riding the fantasy pine after I scooped Polanco. Bench batters is bad juju in a 12 team league…think he’s still got 15/30 upside? Please!
|
| 4:54 |
: The 30 swipes is a stretch. It was always obvious he’d probably have some issues with his bat. What I liked is his defense ensures he remains on the field so he can work through things
|
| 4:55 |
: He’ll get hot at some point
|
| 4:55 |
: I have to wrap up a little early today. We’ll go another 5 minutes or so
|
| 4:55 |
: Which slumping Brewer ends up having a better year – Aguilar or Shaw?
|
| 4:55 |
: Shaw
|
| 4:55 |
: Better Tampa surger to hold for later, Lowe, or Diaz?
|
| 4:56 |
: For later, probably Lowe. I’ve always found myself fascinated by Diaz though
|
| 4:56 |
: And the division does have plenty of fly ball pitchers – I think that’s the main reason they acquired him
|
| 4:56 |
: How certain are you that the Angels turn to Buttrey instead of Robles?
|
| 4:56 |
: In the short term, not at all
|
| 4:56 |
: Probably not even 50/50 anymore
|
| 4:57 |
: But I’d still bet on him finishing the year with the most saves on their roster
|
| 4:57 |
: And more importantly, the ratios play even without any saves
|
| 4:57 |
: Who is Cordell? The scouting reports are intriguing. He may have all the tools?
|
| 4:58 |
: Except plate discipline or contact? It’s possible the White Sox have some insight into picking out ideal matchups for him. So maybe he’s a good DFS guy
|
| 4:58 |
: Are they going to fully turn loaisiga loose? Or will they keep monitoring his innings?
|
| 4:58 |
: I’m sure they will monitor closely
|
| 4:58 |
: The only players who aren’t treated with kid gloves are the fringe types
|
| 4:59 |
: How soon is Keston Hiura going to push a struggling bat to the bench in Milwaukee?
|
| 4:59 |
: Well, he has a 1.4% BB rate and 33.8% K rate so I’m going to say it’ll be a while
|
| 5:00 |
: Hey Vlad Guerreto debut today? Really??
|
| 5:00 |
: Not today. I think Friday is the latest rumor. Unless I missed something this afternoon.
|
| 5:00 |
: morton for flaherty in a QS league?
|
| 5:01 |
: EZ Flaherty
|
| 5:01 |
: Would you still be holding Kyle Tucker in a 16 team, Keep 5 Forever? Or move on to someone like Cease?
|
| 5:02 |
: Feel free to cast a net. I know that probably feels like a deep format, but if you screw up by cutting bait on a slow start like Tucker too soon, you can always find somebody almost exactly as good
|
| 5:02 |
: I’d probably give Cease a try
|
| 5:02 |
: Do you vote in your own polls? Do you often side with the majority?
|
| 5:02 |
: I do not vote, and I have no collected any data
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| 5:03 |
: And on that note, goodnight folks. I have adventures to adventure.
|
You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam