Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 2/19/2019
by Brad Johnson
February 19, 2019
A transcript of today’s chat is available. We argued about the merits of rankings.
| 3:55 |
: We’ll get this thing going in a few minutes. I got lost in the news of the day and forgot to put this post together.
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| 3:56 |
: If you didn’t vote in this morning’s poll, I’d appreciate the info. https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/highly-custom-leagues-a-desirability-pol…
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| 4:01 |
: Do you buy into the Conforto breakout I’ve seen in numerous publications in 2019?
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| 4:01 |
: Wasn’t really a breakout. He was good. Then he played injured for half a season. Then he was good again. So I think he’s still a good player
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| 4:02 |
: You should expect more than his 2018 production but a little less than his second half production. That’s a very useful fantasy asset and better than his current ADP.
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| 4:02 |
: What does Padres infield look like now? Does this delay Tatis?
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| 4:02 |
: I don’t think so, but I always assumed Tatis would get Vladitoed unless the Padres need him for contention
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| 4:03 |
: In that sense, Tatis may be closer to the majors now
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| 4:03 |
: It doesn’t much matter where Machado/Urias play between SS/3B
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| 4:04 |
: Brad Keller is either your relative or your favorite player. You dont find that having someone throw 120 innings of 6.5k/9 a huge hole to dig out of? Yes you can use 10K+ relievers, but so does everyone else
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| 4:04 |
: I’m not even the highest on Keller. Talk to Jeff Zimmerman if you want to chat with somebody in dripping love with him.
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| 4:05 |
: I only think he’s a playable late draft guy, a spot which will probably turn into a streamer in most 12-team formats
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| 4:05 |
: I’ve been trying to trade a 34th round pick for him in a 20-team dynasty
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| 4:05 |
: These are hardly outlandish valuations
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| 4:06 |
: That said, I do see about 7.7 K/9 with positive value ERA and WHIP in 12-team (and no wins)
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| 4:06 |
: The stuff was better than the strikeout rate last year
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| 4:06 |
: Are you buying the Nick Senzel possibility of breaking camp with the Reds? And if so, expectations for a full season in his rookie year?
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| 4:06 |
: Not really, he needs some injury help at this point
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| 4:06 |
: Can Glasnow finally reach his projected phenom status in year 2 post Pittsburgh?
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| 4:07 |
: Nah, at best he’s bad Lance McCullers
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| 4:07 |
: I’m not confident he’ll average over 5 IP per start
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| 4:07 |
: or follow
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| 4:07 |
: Do you think the scarcity of top round 1B options is a blip or a real baseball trend that will last for a long time? I dont see too many young 1B sluggers on the horizon.
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| 4:07 |
: Blip
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| 4:08 |
: What you’ll see is some of these big slugging middle infielders sliding to 1B. Like Daniel Murphy.
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| 4:08 |
: As a White Sox fan, talk me off the ledge
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| 4:09 |
: At least you’re not a Phillies fan?
Bryce or bust now for #Phillies? Here’s Matt Klentak’s take on that idea:
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| 4:09 |
: So much for stupid money
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| 4:09 |
: I never really thought Reinsdorf would pony up the $300MM. Sounds like he at least made a competitive offer in the end.
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| 4:10 |
: Dealt an expensive JTR and Snell and a fair market value Correa for ultra cheap Scherzer/Clevinger/DeJong. 12 tm 5×5 Dynasty. I did okay, no?
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| 4:11 |
: That’s a complicated swap…
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| 4:11 |
: In that you accomplished your goal of cutting costs, I think you did well
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| 4:12 |
: You seem to give up both present and future production to accomplish it, but we’re missing the players you buy with the savings
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| 4:12 |
: I’m in the Dodgers’ system now. Will they be the ones to let me mash, Brad?
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| 4:12 |
: Hey, if anybody can teach you how to mash, it’s the Dodgers
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| 4:12 |
: That’s an automatic 5 point increase to power on the 20/80 scale
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| 4:13 |
: Who are you targeting in the Screw Cancer draft tonight? Asking for a friend
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| 4:13 |
: Have you looked at my roster? I’m picking like 13 $1 players or something
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| 4:13 |
: I’ll do the prep during the draft while y’all bid like animals
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| 4:13 |
: What are some post 250ADP arms (besides Brad Keller) you like as SP depth?
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| 4:13 |
: hah
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| 4:15 |
: In no particular order: Zach Eflin, Steven Matz, Trevor/Taylor Williams, Kyle Gibson, Trevor Cahill, Marco Gonzales, Anibal Sanchez, Mike Soroka, Luke Weaver, Michael Fulmer, Touki, Stroman, Woodruff…
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| 4:15 |
: It goes on, that’s just the guys rated 250 to 325
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| 4:16 |
: There’s no shortage of back end patches this year. Looks like a deep post-Glob to me
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| 4:16 |
: For those of us dealing with innings cap the low k rates make otherwise decent pitchers unplayable. May be some source of disagreements.
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| 4:17 |
: True, though this all depends on your roster. If you have a bunch of 10 K/9 SP, you can protect your ratios with a 6.5 K/9 guy and still lead Ks.
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| 4:17 |
: Nimmo and Arrieta or Porcello in a 14 team dynasty points league? Thanks!
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| 4:17 |
: Nimmo and cut those SP?
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| 4:17 |
: Seriously though, Nimmo is an asset. The other two are just veteran guys.
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| 4:17 |
: All this talk of Manny arriving in SD, how about some catcher talk? What are your thoughts on a full season of Francisco Mejia?
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| 4:17 |
: Not what you want to hear.
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| 4:19 |
: He had serious contact issues last year. He got WAY worse as a batter.
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| 4:19 |
: There’s a reason the Indians sold
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| 4:19 |
: The good news is I think he probably just over-sold out for power
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| 4:19 |
: and that should be fixable
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| 4:19 |
: But it could take years
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| 4:20 |
: Take a flier anyway since catcher is a wasteland
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| 4:20 |
: 5yr of Mondesi for 5 years of Puig & 1yr of Bogaerts. 6×6 (walks). $$ immaterial. Which side do you like?
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| 4:20 |
: If you’re contending, gimme the Bogaerts side
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| 4:20 |
: Otherwise, gamble on Mondesi
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| 4:20 |
: Sooooo….. is there a possibility of ZERO current suitors for Harper now?
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| 4:21 |
: Nah. He’ll get $320MM or so from the Phillies when the dust clears
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| 4:21 |
: How high would you bump up Gallo in an OPS roto league? 2 rounds? Thanks!
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| 4:22 |
: Um…
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| 4:22 |
: I have a link for you. Find Gallo’s name.
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| 4:22 |
: That’s not an optimized assessment. I just used the base inputs.
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| 4:22 |
: But you’re going to find Gallo is a top 10 hitter in most permutations you run.
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| 4:23 |
: Dynasty Question: How do you handle awful trade offers from the same team repeatedly, even in spite of feedback that you’re not interested? (For example, received an offer of Tanner Roark and Tim Anderson for Mookie, which was one of the better offers haha).
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| 4:23 |
: No comment rejections for about 3 times
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| 4:23 |
: Then just leave it open
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| 4:24 |
: And if you’re feeling like a real ass, make them think you’re close to pulling the trigger
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| 4:24 |
: Honestly, I’d probably do more of that if I had the time.
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| 4:24 |
: What are your thoughts on Eddie Rosario’s 1st half/2nd half splits last year?
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| 4:25 |
: I wouldn’t fuss about them. There’s no obvious explanations like with Conforto or Cesar Hernandez. So it’s probably just statistical noise
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| 4:25 |
: He *looks* like a streaky player to me, so don’t be surprised if he has ups and downs again
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| 4:25 |
: keep forever, keep all league. In trying to simplifying a 10×10 league. Best category to drop in given todays game (opener strategy), IP, W, or QS?
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| 4:26 |
: Keep IP and maybe combine W and QS into W+QS
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| 4:26 |
: There are various formulas you can use if you’re on FanTrax
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| 4:26 |
: 12 team points, pick 2: $11 Conforto, $11 Gallo, $21 Albies, no negatives for strikeouts.
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| 4:26 |
: EZ Conforto+Gallo
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| 4:26 |
: Super EZ
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| 4:26 |
: dump that Albies noise.
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| 4:27 |
: D.Jansen or F.Mejia as starting catcher in a 15-team league?
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| 4:27 |
: EZ Jansen
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| 4:27 |
: does it kind of make sense to handcuff ryu and stripling?
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| 4:27 |
: Absolutely, I love both of them as targets because they’ll likely give you playable IP when on the field
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| 4:27 |
: I’d rather have 80 very good IP than 190 decent IP
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| 4:27 |
: How would you tackle pitching in a startup dynasty?
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| 4:27 |
: Generally I ignore it for the early portion of the draft
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| 4:28 |
: If I’m trying to contend early, I’ll build a rotation out of guys like Anibal, Derek Holland, and Mike Minor
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| 4:28 |
: i.e. late no-value picks
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| 4:29 |
: The spots you would usually use on guys like Snell and Nola go to elite position player prospects like Tatis, Royce Lewis, etc.
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| 4:29 |
: Use pop up middle relievers like Ryan Pressly to trim the fat off the ratios and add k’s
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| 4:29 |
: Why are people doubting Chapman? Should I keep Gleybar over him in a ten team H2H?
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| 4:30 |
: Matt Chapman? There’s some concern about the various injuries he’s recovering from. Seems like a slow start is possible.
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| 4:30 |
: So…just did a draft yesterday and punted pitching early and ended up with CMart as my #2…how screwed am I?
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| 4:30 |
: It doesn’t look good.
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| 4:31 |
: If you work hard on managing your pitchers and using good RP, you might be able to salvage things. Especially with the right opening/follower plays
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| 4:31 |
: It won’t be easy, and you might make things worse rather than better
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| 4:31 |
: Trying to decide 5 keepers. When I run the auction values tool, it makes Gary Sanchez look super valuable. Based on ADP, Rendon, Buehler, Hoskins all look like better choices. What’s up?
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| 4:31 |
: Catchers get a big boost for position scarcity
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| 4:32 |
: I’d take the 3 you mentioned over Sanchez
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| 4:32 |
: They’re super high floor plays
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| 4:32 |
: Aside from injury scenarios
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| 4:32 |
: Sanchez could match Hoskins as a C which is hugely valuable. He might also hit .190 again.
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| 4:33 |
: Can you characterize those poolies who favor slow draft vs quick pick drafts
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| 4:33 |
: Which is better for newbies?
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| 4:33 |
: I’m not sure what the first question means.
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| 4:34 |
: I prefer slow drafts as it lets me prep during the draft. I think it’s an easier format for every circumstance.
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| 4:34 |
: I prefer any snake draft to be slow. Auctions should be fast because otherwise they’re interminable.
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| 4:34 |
: Hey. Re your desirability poll – as a non-twitter user, I wasn’t able to vote. Just FYI.
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| 4:35 |
: Yea, that’s a drawback to my various polling tools. Better Twitter than Patreon.
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| 4:35 |
: What’s the time?!?! It’s time to get IL!
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| 4:35 |
: Pssh
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| 4:35 |
: MLB is absurd sometimes. They can change the disabled list, but the Braves fans still tomahawk chop
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| 4:35 |
: Vogelbach interesting?
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| 4:36 |
: In super deep leagues. I picked him for my Spring Training league. He led in hitting last year.
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| 4:36 |
: Can you contend in a league where starting pitching is an afterthought? Build a solid offense, solid RP, but try & skate on mid-tier/low-tier starting pitching. Roto league
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| 4:36 |
: Absolutely. It’s the not the easy way to roster building in this era of ultra-deep offense
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| 4:36 |
: Yandy Diaz… do you think he has a mini breakout this season and becomes useful for fantasy?
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| 4:36 |
: In a sufficiently deep league
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| 4:37 |
: I think for 12-team, his best use is as a AVG streamer
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| 4:37 |
: Since he lacks HR or SB
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| 4:37 |
: I don’t think the Rays will teach him to hit fly balls.
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| 4:37 |
: In fact, I think they want him around to pair against fly ball pitchers which are pretty common in the AL East.
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| 4:38 |
: In which case they’ll want him to keep the GB swing
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| 4:38 |
: 20 team Keep forever categories. Is my JD for Chapman and Eloy a fair deal? Which side wins? Is JD and McCullers for Chapman and Eloy too much?
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| 4:38 |
: Matt Chapman? Aroldis?
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| 4:39 |
: Assuming Matt, I really like that kiddie side of the swap. Either scenario.
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| 4:39 |
: JDM is obviously incredible so I could see passing for 2019 purposes
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| 4:39 |
: Psst, this is the kind of offer I want for JDM in Devil’s Rejects
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| 4:39 |
: Follow-up: are large swings in perception over classes of players (prospects vs. vet pitchers vs. vet hitters) a common occurrence in dynasty leagues?
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| 4:40 |
: Not really, unless you’re starting with a league of newbies
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| 4:40 |
: Then they might learn to adjust their redraft preferences en masse
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| 4:40 |
: But the idea that young hitters are everything and all else is noise is pretty firmly entrenched
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| 4:40 |
: To a way over-extreme
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| 4:40 |
: Will Fangraphs be hosting the SaberSim DFS projections again?
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| 4:41 |
: I hope so. I haven’t heard otherwise.
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| 4:41 |
: Would you rather have Xander or Blackmon in a 12 team OPS roto? Thanks!
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| 4:41 |
: Blackmon for 2019
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| 4:41 |
: Maybe that makes me less of a human, though, so no biggie?
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| 4:41 |
: Or more? (re: no twitter account)
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| 4:42 |
: I hate Twitter. I wouldn’t have any social media if not for work.
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| 4:42 |
: Think Reyes gets the open rotation spot now? Thoughts on his value if yes?
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| 4:42 |
: I think they’ll acquire a guy. Reyes maybe has 100 IP to give this year
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| 4:42 |
: Jose De Leon have any impact this season? He was pretty big prospect before TJ.
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| 4:43 |
: Overhyped. He was a fringe swingman/reliever whose MiLB stat line confused a bunch of folk
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| 4:43 |
: Was never actually a good fantasy prospect
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| 4:44 |
: I think he’s out until May/July if memory serves
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| 4:44 |
: Maybe a follower once he’s back?
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| 4:44 |
: Struggling with my last keeper between Albies in the 8th and Carpenter in the 11th. Other keepers are Betts, JDM, Bregman, 12 team.
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| 4:45 |
: I’d do Carp.
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| 4:45 |
: Do you believe Nelson Cruz is good for 30hr and 100rbi this year?
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| 4:45 |
: More or less
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| 4:45 |
: Can you list your favorite of these 3 in order for fantasy purposes, please. Bunes, Paddack, Keller.
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| 4:45 |
: Who did you mean by Bunes. My brain isn’t autocorrecting that for some reason.
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| 4:45 |
: Paddack is miles ahead of Keller.
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| 4:46 |
: Can you justify targeting de Grom over Scherer or Sale in an auction?
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| 4:46 |
: If you take a shrug approach to pitching, they’re similar enough to not fuss about which one you get
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| 4:47 |
: You could torture an argument that he’s less risky because he’s not as old as Scherzer and doesn’t have a recent scare like Sale
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| 4:47 |
: But that’s pretty specious.
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| 4:47 |
: Any bold predictions for fantasy this year?
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| 4:48 |
: Oh yea. We’ll be posting those in the coming weeks
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| 4:48 |
: Whitley, or Luzardo – bigger fantasy impact in 2019?
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| 4:48 |
: Flip a coin
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| 4:48 |
: Same asset class, similar opportunity
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| 4:48 |
: Where do you fall on the Mondesi spectrum? Avoiding him entirely b/c he’s an expensive Villar or will you be sure to pay the premium to grab a few shares?
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| 4:48 |
: Does Mondesi have more value by the end of 2019 than Segura?
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| 4:48 |
: So I wrote about this ages ago.
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| 4:49 |
: I think the crux of it is that my interest is entirely situational
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| 4:50 |
: Usually, we’ll get to the point of the draft when it’s Mondesi’s turn to go and I won’t see his name
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| 4:50 |
: If I have a ton of AVG/OBP and a need for speed, he might be my top target
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| 4:50 |
: I’m more willing to throw the dice in keeper/dynasty scenarios
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| 4:50 |
: Do you have an overarching strategy for SP this year? Are you a barbell method purist of grab’em at the extremes of top & bottom to avoid the middle?
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| 4:50 |
: I have 17 rosters so my approach is diversification
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| 4:51 |
: What’s the most overrated trend in fantasy? Any that you look to exploit in drafts and leagues?
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| 4:51 |
: Some of my colleagues are FINALLY realizing that tiers are nonsense sauce
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| 4:51 |
: We’ll see how much longer until they join me on the “rankings are horseshit” bandwagon
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| 4:52 |
: ANY form of groupthink you can identify is exploitable
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| 4:52 |
: When you go against the grain, you can afford to be a little inefficient because you aren’t competing identically for resources
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| 4:52 |
: And if you manage to go contrarian AND efficient, you’ll crush
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| 4:53 |
: The young kid Poche in camp for Tampa Bay – early spring hype? Nothing else to write about, or legit under the radar bullpen arm?
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| 4:53 |
: Is he under the radar? He’s the most talked about relief prospect since Seranthony.
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| 4:54 |
: How many picks should go between Andujar and Castellanos in a redraft?
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| 4:54 |
: :slowgrin:
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| 4:54 |
: Nick Castellanos should be picked before Miguel Andujar
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| 4:54 |
: The old Marlins regime wouldn’t be scared to move a young pitcher quickly through the minors – that said, any chance we see Sixto in 2019?
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| 4:55 |
: Seems unlikely.
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| 4:55 |
: Just became a patreon subscriber…really enjoy your work!
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| 4:55 |
: Awesome, great to have you. Be sure to check out the Discord community. Everybody there is friendly and helpful. They know their stuff too.
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| 4:55 |
: Do you know of any new stats similar or more advanced than wrc+?
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| 4:56 |
: Are you trying to get a FanGraphs writer to say DRC+?
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| 4:57 |
: My main gripe with BPro stats is they do these one week blitzes where all you hear on twitter is DRC+ this and that, then they’re never referenced again
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| 4:57 |
: They’ll tell us it’s a good stat, but they won’t tell us exactly how it’s formulated.
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| 4:58 |
: I’m mistrustful of hidden math.
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| 4:58 |
: trying to trade jon gray and yu darvish in dynasty…what hitter or pitcher could i reasonably move them for>
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| 4:58 |
: You might get something reasonable for Gray from the right opponent
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| 4:58 |
: I think you should hold Darvish
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| 4:59 |
: Because right now you can get like maybe Jonathan Schoop or another similarly busted player
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| 4:59 |
: But if he rebounds, he’s a top 15 pitcher in a pitching starved league
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| 4:59 |
: (I actually like Schoop’s rebound potential if that’s on the table)
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| 4:59 |
: NL only keeper league. Pick 6 to keep Ozzie Albies, David Dahl, Wil Myers, Michael Conforto, AJ Pollock, Corey Seager, Miles Mikolas, Patrick Corbin, German Marquez. Thanks!
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| 5:00 |
: Oof, that’s a lot of nice names
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| 5:00 |
: Albies, Conforto, Pollock, Seager, Corbin and choose your favority
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| 5:00 |
: I left off Myers because I think a trade to the AL could come this season
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| 5:00 |
: Marquez is lovely but Coors Field is not
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| 5:01 |
: Mikolas is maybe a little too command dependent for my liking (see Hendricks)
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| 5:01 |
: And I’m a renowned Dahl Doubter
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| 5:01 |
: Is David Dahl going to break out this year or will I continue to live with broken dreams?
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| 5:01 |
: He’ll be fine if they let him play
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| 5:01 |
: I expect him to fall well short of lofty expectations
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| 5:01 |
: If you don’t use rankings or tiers, what do you use? ADP? Isn’t that just a form of rankings?
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| 5:02 |
: I draft stats
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| 5:02 |
: and optimize for needs once those become apparent
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| 5:02 |
: Any chance Buxton becomes something of what was expected?
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| 5:02 |
: He could be pretty similar to what everybody is drafting Adalberto Mondesi to do
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| 5:02 |
: or not remotely playable
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| 5:03 |
: At their costs, I’ll prefer Buxton to Mondesi most times
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| 5:03 |
: Though you don’t have the luxury of knowing you’ll get Buxton when it’s time to pick Mondesi
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| 5:03 |
: I know…
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| 5:03 |
: Are you out on Kershaw and MadBum?
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| 5:03 |
: I’m in on Kershaw
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| 5:03 |
: Super in
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| 5:04 |
: Out on MadBum
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| 5:04 |
: Kershaw is like SP10 and still has SP1 potential. There’s a good 20-25% of outcomes that involve a full healthy season and huge stats
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| 5:05 |
: And all but the worst outcomes are still top 30
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| 5:05 |
: Hi Brad. I give my Harper for Baez/Severino? 12 team OBP keeper, thanks!
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| 5:05 |
: Nooo
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| 5:05 |
: Keep Harper in OBP
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| 5:05 |
: Baez is a landmine
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| 5:05 |
: Which Padres OF are you hyped on? Seems like everyone has a pet cat in that outfield
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| 5:05 |
: I’m big on Travis Jankowski personally
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| 5:06 |
: Actually, I would bet that I own the record for most mentions of Travis Jankowski on the internet, excluding Padres beat writers.
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| 5:06 |
: In all seriousness, it’s an interesting collection of players, but it’s tough to tell which is a starter and which is a backup
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| 5:07 |
: they might all be backup quality. They might all be starter quality.
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| 5:07 |
: Can you explain your take on rankings? You say you draft stats, but are guys listed in an order? Curious as to what you mean.
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| 5:08 |
: That’s more of a full article, one I’ve written several times but I don’t recall a corresponding title
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| 5:09 |
: In short, I’ll identify what I need, identify the players that fit the need, then sometimes I’ll use perceived ADP (I expect industry insiders to pick differently than my old college teammates) as a tiebreaker when considering multiple options
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| 5:10 |
: I understand this no rankings approach can be a point of contention. I’m basically suggesting you become a full time fantasy professional so that all this information is internalized
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| 5:10 |
: I’d continue providing rankings if I was one of 5 guys doing it
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| 5:11 |
: You have HUNDREDS of alternatives so I see no need to anchor myself to a flawed process.
|
| 5:11 |
: (I do get nightmarishly anchored to my rankings if I make them)
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| 5:11 |
: Does Franchy have a chance in hell to be anything worth rostering?
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| 5:11 |
: Definitely a chance. I’d treat him as a $1 flier for now. Be prepared to jump ship
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| 5:11 |
: Musgrove
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| 5:12 |
: And his replacement level twin Joe Must Groove
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| 5:12 |
: If I don’t have tiers to draft from, how can I draft drunk?
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| 5:12 |
: How can you see tiers drunk?
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| 5:13 |
: “You have HUNDREDS of alternatives so I see no need to anchor myself to a flawed process.” What do you think we’re asking for? We aren’t asking for your rankings, we’re asking what your draft organization is. Do you just have an alphabetized list of available players and do a “ranking” in your head for the specific need you’re after?
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| 5:14 |
: I don’t really understand. I pick the players who fit my needs. I don’t need them organized, the platform does that fine. I just search the name of the player I want.
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| 5:14 |
: Have you noticed any glaring market inefficiencies so far this year? People reaching too high on 1B? Avoidance of SPs on teams that may use openers? Curious what your zigs have been to the relative zags thus far.
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| 5:14 |
: I’m heavy on dynasty leagues
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| 5:15 |
: So the main thing I’m seeing is too many people drafting scrubby volume vets or hellishly young prospects
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| 5:15 |
: There’s a middle ground between 14-year-olds and 35-year-olds
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| 5:15 |
: It’s a pretty big middle ground…
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| 5:16 |
: On the redraft side, there is a danger of completely missing SP if you pick in the back end of a 15-team draft and don’t take a SP in the first 2 rounds
|
| 5:16 |
: You almost have to
|
| 5:16 |
: Or plan to go without.
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| 5:16 |
: Which I do think is possible if you’re into enormous risks.
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| 5:17 |
: What language should I learn to develop algorithms for baseball analytics and/or get a job with an MLB analytics department ?
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| 5:17 |
: I never really finished this step. I recommend asking Alex Chamberlain and/or Jeff Zimmerman. At the very least, you need SQL.
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| 5:17 |
: Jon Gray for Pivetta?
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| 5:17 |
: Seems pretty fair. I prefer Pivetta.
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| 5:17 |
: Ok, time to wrap it up.
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| 5:18 |
: Been a big baseball fan for a long time, but would like to start playing fantasy. What’s a good first step?
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| 5:19 |
: Ideally, you find an active league with people you know. That’s easier said than done. I recommend something simple like 10-team classic 5×5 roto or H2H
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| 5:20 |
: There are various places on the internet that could help you find a friendly home. We usually have a league matchmaker spun up around this time of year. I have a channel on my Discord devoted to matchmaking and league formation. Reddit has a sub for that too.
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| 5:20 |
: In the long run : Bieber,Lucchesi,F.Peralta,Keller…???
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| 5:20 |
: Bieber? They’re similar asset class, but I think Biebs has the best shot to turn into an actual ace
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| 5:20 |
: not saying it’s likely, the path is just more visible than with the others
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| 5:21 |
: Inre: missing out on top arms. That’s what happened to Sporer in LABR draft last week. So you think that will be the trend this year…how do you you think that team did without a pitcher drafted above pick 75 and Wheeler/Price leading their rotation?
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| 5:21 |
: I don’t recall the LABR rules, but they have their work cut out for them
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| 5:21 |
: The Tout Wars Draft and Hold I’m in right now allows NO post-draft moves so I nabbed three SP in the first five rounds.
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| 5:22 |
: What’s wrong with using rankings or tiers to estimate how much your opponents value players during draft or starting trade negotiations?
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| 5:22 |
: Nothing wrong with rankings. I can’t imagine a good way of using tiers for that except as misinformation
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| 5:23 |
: I do run into some trouble in trade chats since I approach them from a “I can afford to trade these stats” perspective
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| 5:23 |
: Not everybody appreciates the non-standard approach
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| 5:23 |
: Do you have a link for that draft?
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| 5:23 |
: Keeper? Hoskins or Correa? How is Correa’s back?
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| 5:24 |
: I haven’t heard any updates on Correa. I’d lean Hoskins.
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| 5:24 |
: Ok so you need a player that fits your needs, say you need HRs, how do you choose which player to draft?
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| 5:26 |
: This is a complicate flow chart. For one, it’s not about one category. It’s more like “I need 5+ HR above average with +.010 OBP and no more than -5 SB or equivalent.”
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| 5:26 |
: Then I’ll queue up everybody who fits the profile or offers comparable value in a different package. For example, I might also consider Joey Gallo and Kenley Jansen.
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| 5:27 |
: Then I whittle down to a pick
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| 5:27 |
: That’s if it’s a slow draft and I can afford to put 10 minutes into it
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| 5:27 |
: For a normal draft, it’s the same process but with more ADP awareness
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| 5:28 |
: Nearly all of my snake drafts are slow
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| 5:28 |
: Chance that Rafael Devers gets to 30/100 this year? last year in 75% of a year he was 21/66…
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| 5:28 |
: Seems low. Those are huge numbers.
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| 5:28 |
: More of a 75-90th percentile outcome
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| 5:29 |
: Alright, time to sign off. Good game folks.
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| 5:29 |
: Thanks! Great start! Lindor and Flaherty could be huge steals! If a second rounder can be a huge steal…but that’s an awesome start!
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| 5:29 |
: Grazi. Definitely couldn’t pass Lindor there. I was thrown.
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