Three Appearance Fastball Velocity Risers and Fallers: May 16, 2023

Welcome to the first automated installment of fastball velocity risers and fallers. For reference, here are a few articles that explain both the process and the importance of increased or decreased velocity when predicting future success:

This article won’t take the place of my weekly RotoGraphs article and will not have much analysis. Instead, it will only provide data tables for your own analysis.

Relievers
Relievers only qualify to be placed in the table below if they have three appearances in the last 25 days. Though the time range is 25 days, the calculation only includes the three most recent appearances. In addition, I have isolated the table to relievers who have displayed an average change of .60 or greater in either direction (increase vs. decrease).
Reliever Three Appearance Fallers
Name Third recent Second recent Most recent Most recent increase Second recent increase Avg Change
Amir Garrett 96.3 95.0 93.4 -1.63 -1.22 -1.43
Bryse Wilson 94.9 94.3 92.4 -1.90 -0.59 -1.24
Félix Bautista 99.8 99.4 97.7 -1.67 -0.39 -1.03
Brent Honeywell 95.5 95.2 93.8 -1.40 -0.30 -0.85
Carl Edwards Jr. 93.9 93.7 92.3 -1.36 -0.24 -0.80
Andre Pallante 96.6 95.5 95.0 -0.52 -1.04 -0.78
Pete Fairbanks 97.7 97.4 96.2 -1.20 -0.34 -0.77
Keegan Thompson 93.8 93.7 92.3 -1.37 -0.06 -0.72
Austin Pruitt 92.1 91.9 90.7 -1.28 -0.15 -0.72
Dylan Floro 93.0 92.7 91.6 -1.12 -0.26 -0.69
Dinelson Lamet 95.3 94.5 94.0 -0.50 -0.80 -0.65
Jordan Hicks 101.8 101.5 100.5 -0.97 -0.28 -0.62
* Among all starting pitchers with three appearances in the last 25 days.
**>= -.60 Average Change

 

Reliever Three Appearance Risers
Name Third recent Second recent Most recent Most recent increase Second recent increase Avg Change
Bryan Abreu 95.6 98.3 99.0 0.70 2.72 1.71
Erik Swanson 92.4 92.6 94.6 2.00 0.18 1.09
Jason Adam 92.4 93.1 94.3 1.23 0.65 0.94
Tyler Rogers 82.2 82.4 84.0 1.57 0.27 0.92
Anthony Banda 93.0 93.1 94.9 1.73 0.08 0.90
Ryan Thompson 90.9 91.0 92.6 1.65 0.05 0.85
Brock Stewart 95.6 96.1 97.2 1.12 0.51 0.82
Anthony Bass 93.7 94.9 95.3 0.35 1.20 0.77
Reiver Sanmartin 89.5 90.9 91.0 0.10 1.38 0.74
Nick Anderson 93.0 94.0 94.5 0.51 0.95 0.73
Jhoan Duran 100.5 101.2 101.8 0.68 0.65 0.67
Richard Bleier 87.9 89.0 89.3 0.28 1.03 0.66
* Among all starting pitchers with three appearances in the last 25 days.
**>= .60 Average Change

 

Starters

Starters only qualify to be placed in the table below if they have three appearances in the last 25 days and threw in at least the first inning in each of those appearances. The 25-day range should be wide enough to include three consecutive starts, but I may alter that time period in the future. Like in the above relievers table, I have isolated the table to starters who have displayed an average change of .60 or greater in either direction (increase vs. decrease). One final note, I do not remove pitchers who were recently injured. I think it’s advantageous to see how a pitcher’s velocity changed prior to injury. In today’s post, Drew Rasmussen is a good example.

Starter Three Appearance Fallers
Name Third recent Second recent Most recent Most recent increase Second recent increase Avg Change
Jake Woodford 94.3 92.0 90.7 -1.30 -2.27 -1.78
Michael Kopech 96.5 95.3 94.3 -1.05 -1.22 -1.13
Tyler Anderson 91.2 89.9 89.3 -0.58 -1.32 -0.95
Colin Rea 94.1 92.6 92.5 -0.07 -1.48 -0.77
Joe Musgrove 94.6 93.6 93.2 -0.47 -0.93 -0.70
Jack Flaherty 93.4 92.2 92.1 -0.10 -1.28 -0.69
Taijuan Walker 94.2 93.4 92.8 -0.57 -0.78 -0.68
Miles Mikolas 93.9 93.3 92.6 -0.76 -0.54 -0.65
Tanner Houck 94.6 93.8 93.4 -0.35 -0.85 -0.60
* Among all starting pitchers with three appearances in the last 25 days.
**>= -.60 Average Change

 

Starter Three Appearance Risers
Name Third recent Second recent Most recent Most recent increase Second recent increase Avg Change
Jordan Lyles 89.3 90.8 92.1 1.29 1.53 1.41
Grayson Rodriguez 94.6 95.4 97.4 2.01 0.75 1.38
Tony Gonsolin 91.5 93.2 93.6 0.40 1.67 1.03
Eduardo Rodriguez 90.9 91.6 92.9 1.34 0.67 1.00
Nestor Cortes 90.8 91.9 92.8 0.87 1.14 1.00
Julio Urías 92.7 93.4 94.7 1.29 0.67 0.98
Kyle Freeland 88.6 89.4 90.5 1.07 0.83 0.95
Edward Cabrera 95.5 96.1 97.3 1.21 0.59 0.90
Dean Kremer 94.3 94.3 95.9 1.56 0.07 0.82
Kyle Gibson 91.5 91.8 93.1 1.32 0.31 0.81
Mitch Keller 94.6 95.4 96.2 0.79 0.79 0.79
Merrill Kelly 켈리 91.6 92.6 93.1 0.48 0.96 0.72
Dylan Cease 95.1 95.8 96.4 0.56 0.77 0.66
Justin Steele 91.2 92.2 92.5 0.33 0.99 0.66
Drew Rasmussen 95.1 95.3 96.4 1.11 0.17 0.64
Shane McClanahan 96.2 96.8 97.5 0.64 0.62 0.63
Tyler Wells 92.2 92.2 93.4 1.25 0.01 0.63
Griffin Canning 94.1 94.2 95.3 1.16 0.10 0.63
* Among all starting pitchers with three appearances in the last 25 days.
**>= .60 Average Change





11 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
rnegliamember
10 months ago

Grayson got shelled once again, so obviously velocity is not the end-all-be-all.

rnegliamember
10 months ago
Reply to  rneglia

I just happened to be watching the extra innings in the Twins-Dodgers game last night (Monday), and Eric Karros was on commentary while Phil Bickford was mowing the Twins down for three innings (once he found the zone). Bickford does not have top-end velo. But he was hitting his spots, and commanding the fastball in top of the zone (and just above). Karros was like, “if it’s location vs. velocity, give me location all day long.” Not sure I even agree with this fully, but just passing along what I heard.

Anon
10 months ago
Reply to  rneglia

Pitchers have been saying that since the game was invented 150 years ago. It’s the reason guys like Rich Hill and Greinke are still getting guys out throwing 89. They might not be as good as they were when they threw 92+, but they can still put it where they want often enough to be productive major league starters. Kyle Hendricks damn near won a CY throwing 89. In 2008 Jamie Moyer threw 196 IP with a 3.71 ERA with an 81 mph fastball.

weekendatbidens
10 months ago
Reply to  Anon

a margin of error situation. Low velo gotta keep it tight. High velo has forgiveness.

slim_scsi
10 months ago

High velo’s easier to yank out of the ballpark, too. MLB hitters aren’t the least bit intimidated by 94-100+ MPH.

Last edited 10 months ago by slim_scsi
slim_scsi
10 months ago
Reply to  Anon

Greg Maddux won multiple Cy Youngs throwing high 80s cheese with perfect location and calculated movement.