Big Kid Adds (Week 5)

Jeff Curry-Imagn Images

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named Elite leagues (previously called High Stakes Leagues), and there are nine of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues.

Hitters

Nathan Church (9): Not paying up for Church may be one of my biggest regrets during this season. All arrows are pointing up with him. His Barrel% has jumped from 2% to 12%. His Contact% has increased from 73% to 78%, thereby dropping his strikeout rate from 28% to 24%. Overall, he has gone from a .504 OPS to a .713 OPS with 5 HR and 3 SB. And to top it all off, the team is looking to have him play more in centerfield.

Nathaniel Lowe (9): With Eugenio Suárez headed to the IL, Lowe has taken over the Reds’ DH duties (six straight starts). So far this season, he is batting .265/.345/.571 with 4 HR. His batting average has some upside because he has a career-low .243 BABIP (career .328 BABIP). Also, his contact rate jumped from 78% to 84%, and his strikeouts dropped from 26% K% to 15% K%.

Ronny Mauricio (7): Short-side platoon bat filling in at shortstop while Francisco Lindor is on the IL. While Mauricio showed some contact improvement in AAA (19% K%), he’s fallen apart in the majors with a 41% K%. Pitchers aren’t throwing him any fastballs, and he’s getting eaten up by curveballs (>40% SwStr%). He needs to start showing some signs of life.

Luis Campusano (5): The 27-year-old is riding a .400 BABIP to .326/.380/.674 slash line. His results and underlying stats jump around from season to season. It’s tough to get a reading on him. Here are his yearly OPS values:

1.833
.272
.593
.847
.642
.222
1.054

What a rollercoaster ride. With all the ups and downs, add him for this up, but get ready to jump off once the eventual crash occurs.

Starters

Connor Prielipp (9), JR Ritchie (7), Brandon Young (6): I’m going to combine these three prospects into one group to show how I would rank them. In last week’s Big Kids article, I mentioned focusing on AAA xFIP as the best predictor of MLB talent. The other two factors I use were mentioned in the 2024 Edition of The Process and morphed into:

1. A league-average fastball velocity (~94 mph)
2. A plus secondary pitch (non-fastball) grade by a trustworthy publication.

Here are the starting pitching prospects who had a positive 12-team value from our player rater.

If a starting pitcher doesn’t meet these baselines, I’m just not interested. There are too many other options.

So here is a comparison of the three pitchers, along with Elmer Rodríguez, who debuted on Wednesday.

I think Ritchie’s rank will surprise people the most, but in fairness, the last three were based on their AAA xFIP. All four were acceptable in their debuts.

Name: ERA, xFIP
Young: 2.53, 4.68
Ritchie: 2.57, 3.21
Prielipp: 4.00, 3.60
Rodriquez: 4.50, 7.77

The biggest question among these four is how long they’ll remain in the majors. I think Young and Ritchie could stay for a while if they continue to perform. The Twins have Mick Abel coming back, so Abel may push Prielipp to the minors. The Yankees have Carlos Rodón and Gerrit Cole close to returning.

Peter Lambert (7): The former Rockie and Swallow has been solid so far this season in two starts. His 25% K%-BB% ranks 9th among starters (min 10 IP). Yes, there will be some regression, especially since our STUPH models aren’t a fan (4.84 botERA, 83 Pitching+). He’s throwing five pitches between 8% and 28% of the time. And each one of those pitches has a swinging-strike rate over 13%. And on top of the swing-and-miss, he has a 52% GB%. Solid add.

Tyler Mahle (5): Five managers decided that Mahle’s two-step was a good idea. In the first game, they were rewarded with 5 ER, 3 K, and 3 BB over 5 IP. Coming into the start, Mahle had a 5.26 ERA (3.85 xFIP), 1.60 WHIP (4.9 BB/9), and 9.1 K/9. I could see buying into the sub-4.00 xFIP, but a 1.60 WHIP does as much ratio damage as a 6.11 ERA.

Relievers

Jack Perkins (9): The infamous Sunday Save had his stock up, and he was lined up for a Save on Tuesday when Logan Harris couldn’t hold the lead. Then on Wednesday, Perkins was passed over, and Mark Leiter Jr. got the Save. I don’t think the team will go with one set closer. That said, Perkins is the best reliever in the bullpen (2.92 ERA, 3.02 xFIP, 1.05 WHIP, and 11.7 K/9) and should get plenty of high-leverage appearances.

Jacob Latz (8): Latz has the team’s last two Saves and has been acceptable as a reliever (1.42 ERA, 3.67 xFIP, 0.55 WHIP, and 7.8 K/9). I wish he struck out more batters (5th highest in his own bullpen, min 5 IP). I could see him take the job and run with it.

Luke Weaver (6): With Devin Williams struggling (9.00 ERA, 3.05 xFIP, 2.50 WHIP, and 16.9 K/9), some managers added sort-of struggling Weaver (4.91 ERA, 4.76 xFIP, 1.09 WHIP, and 5.7 K/9), hoping he’d replace Williams. I don’t get the move at all … oh well.

Gus Varland (6): With Clayton Beeter going on the IL, it seems like Varland is taking over the closer duties.