Big Kid Adds (Week 22)


Jaiden Tripi-Imagn Images

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named Elite leagues (previously called High Stakes Leagues), and there are nine of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain every advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues.

Batters

Andrés Chaparro (6): While Chaparro will always start against lefties, he began getting starts against righties. Coming into Sunday NFBC FAAB periods, he started in five of the last seven games against righties, three as the DH. Then CJ Abrams got hurt, and Abrams took over the DH duties. Chaparro has no fantasy value sitting on the bench.

Talent-wise, Chaparro is all power (8 HR in 150 PA) with his bat speed improving every season (72.4 mph to 73.3 mph to 74.6 mph). He’ll provide no speed, but for teams needing home runs, he was worth the gamble.

Rafael Flores Jr. (5): Flores has been great at filling in at catcher for Endy Rodriguez. In 24 games, the 25-year-old has 6 HR and .262 AVG. I’m a little worried his batting average could take a hit since he has some swing-and-miss in his game (30% K%, 68% Contact%). He’s not stealing bases, but he’s a catcher, so the lack of speed is expected.

He’s been able to get in some additional at-bats with seven games at first base. For teams needing a catcher replacement/improvement, add Flores.

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Trevor Story (5): Story is expected to come off the IL any day now and rejoin the Red Sox. Before going on the IL (hernia), he was batting .206/.244/.303 (32% K%) with 3 HR and 4 SB. He’s been horrible in his rehab (.160/.192/.160) with his Average Exit Velocity down 2.2 mph.

Fantasy managers are probably dreaming back to last season when Story had 25 HR and 31 SB. I’m not sure that production is coming back for the 33-year-old.

Carlos Cortes (5): Coming into the week, the Athletics were scheduled to face all six righties (five now), so streaming the strong-side platoon bat was a solid idea.

The 29-year-old started the season off great, but has struggled in the second half (.788 OPS in 1H, .601 OPS in 2H). His strikeout rate has doubled from 13% to 25%.

Starters

Kade Anderson (9): In Anderson’s debut, I wanted to see what our STUPH models thought of this repertoire. It wasn’t good with a 5.07 botERA (similar to his 4.78 xFIP) and 87 Pitching+. For his pitches, the models loved the slider, were OK with the fastball, and hated the change and curve.

One interesting note from the start: he moves around on the pitching rubber depending on the handedness of the hitter.

He dominated lefties (33% K-BB%) but not righties (6% K-BB%) in the start, but the numbers were swapped in AA (41% K-BB% vs RHH, 25% K-BB% vs LHH). He’s an add, but may not be the league savior some managers hoped for.

José Urquidy (7): Before Urquidy’s Monday start, he had 11 K and 0 BB over his last two appearances (9 IP). Managers hoped he had righted his ship and bought in on a two-start week. They paid for it with 5 ER, 4 BB, 6 H, and just 2 K in 3 IP.

His fastball velocity dropped under 92 mph and is the second straight drop (93.7 mph to 92.5 mph to 91.8 mph). I know he’s locked in for this week, but I don’t trust him until he regains the velocity and strings together a few good starts. His usefulness this season might be over by then.

Randy Vasquez (5): Over his last six appearances (30 IP), he has a 2.76 ERA (4.79 xFIP), 0.73 WHIP, and 3.3 K/9. That’s right, just a 3.3 K/9. This week he faces the Pirates.

Over those games, he made a couple of changes. He finished dumping his curve (11% SwStr%) and threw his four-seamer (8% SwStr%, 31% GB%) and sinker (4% SwStr%, 48% GB%) the same amount after relying on the four-seamer during the season. These are small changes and his talent level hasn’t budged.

David Peterson (5): Since joining the Cubs, Peterson has been a solid 4.00 ERA talent (3.93 ERA, 4.10 xFIP, 4.74 botERA). While there are ups and downs, Peterson always regresses to the 4.00 ERA mark.

Blade Tidwell (5): The right-handed Tidwell is great against righties (24% K-BB%) and horrible against lefties (1% K-BB%). This week, he faces the Diamondbacks, who struggle against righties this year (89 wRC+, second lowest in the league).

The problem with Tidwell is that he’s just fastball/slider and doesn’t have a good pitch to get lefties out. He’s thrown a change 29 times this year, and it hasn’t generated one swing-and-miss.

He might not be worth starting next week against the Pirates since they crush righties (109 wRC+ vs RHP). The next week, he is  streamable against the Cardinals (94 wRC+ vs RHP).

Relievers

Justin Martinez (4): There is no clear closer in Arizona and there never will be (h/t to Frank Stampfl).

Rico Garcia (4): Garcia got the last Save in Baltimore, so desperate managers need to take a chance.

Most Added Players in NFBC Elite Leagues
Name Leagues Max Winning Bid Min Winning Bid
Kade Anderson 9 112 63
Jose Urquidy 7 17 6
Andres Chaparro 6 5 1
Rafael Flores Jr. 5 7 1
Randy Vasquez 5 5 1
Trevor Story 5 38 2
David Peterson 5 14 5
Blade Tidwell 5 5 1
Carlos Cortes 5 8 1
Justin Martinez 4 23 1
Rico Garcia 4 9 1
George Klassen 4 7 3
Drew Gilbert 4 4 1
Spencer Arrighetti 4 5 2
Marcus Semien 4 7 1
Quinn Mathews 4 3 2





Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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