Big Kid Adds (Week 2)

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even a larger entry fee ($2.5K to $15K). They get originally named “High Stakes Leagues” and this year there are nine of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers are going to try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more of these leagues.

Owen Miller (9): Miller has an insane line of .500/.545/.964 with a .545 BABIP. Obviously, there is some regression coming but it’s tough to know where his talent will stabilize. His eye has improved with his K/BB dropping from 6.0 to 1.3. Those gains might not stick since the league is throwing him 61% fastball (53% last season). Almost all of his damage is coming off those fastballs (1.771 OPS) and the league will eventually adjust. I think in deeper leagues he is a must-add.

Paul Blackburn (8): Rostering him was a no-brainer with a 9.0 K/9, 0.90 WHIP, 59% GB% and a 1.80 ERA with matching ERA estimators. His velocity is up 1.3 mph. He throwing his change (15% SwStr%) and slider (17% SwStr%) more. A 9.0 K/9 and near 60% GB% puts him in the same category as Luis Castillo and Sandy Alcantara. While those stats are likely not to stick, he must be rostered on the chance they do.

Taylor Ward (8): Ward was getting some hate because Joe Maddon guaranteed him an outfield spot over Jo Adell and Brandon Marsh. The reason might be as simple as Ward is a better hitter. Our projections think so:

In Ward’s first four games, he’s hit between second and fourth in the lineup with a 1.074 OPS, 1 HR, and 1 SB. He’s not going away and should be rostered in all five outfielder leagues. His 21 HR, 6 SB, .246 AVG projection from Steamer600 is almost identical to Luis Urias (21, 6, .254) and Dansby Swanson (21, 8, .245).

David Peterson (8): There is some good (0.00 ERA, 59% GB%, FBv up) and bad (4.3 BB/9, career-low 9% SwStr%) in his profile. The additions might be to stream him against the Diamondbacks. My projections have him as a 4.10 ERA pitcher so I guess that’s worth adding … maybe. I plan on watching his Thursday start to see if there is anything more here.

Héctor Neris (7): Neris looks to be the closer with Ryan Pressley on the IL for a short stint.

Josh Staumont (7): Staumont got the Save over Scott Barlow on Saturday and then again last night. Barlow came in earlier in the game in both instances. My only issue with Staumont keeping the closer’s job is if his walks (5.4 BB/9 in 2022, 4.4 BB/9 for his career) become an issue. With similar better strikeout numbers, Barlow has a 1.6 BB/9 this season and 3.6 BB/9 for his career.

Josh Fleming (7): I wrote up Fleming for this week’s waiver wire article. In his short outings, he’s getting strikeouts (11.7 K/9) and groundballs (67% GB%). His only issue is that .448 BABIP has pushed up his ERA to 5.40.

Josh Naylor (7): He’s started two of three games since coming off the IL. He’s projected to be a decent bat (20 HR, 4 SB, .260 AVG) but several other Guardians are hitting (Miller and Mercado), so his playing time might be sporadic.

Santiago Espinal (6): While his .622 OPS is not ideal, it’s over twice that of Cavan Biggio’s .294 OPS. He’s a fine infield bench backup/streamer with third base and soon-to-be second base eligibility.

Dallas Keuchel (6): He was lined up for two starts at Cleveland and Minnesota, but the weather and the return of Lucas Giolito have pushed back the second start. Now, he’s lineup up for two starts versus Kansas City and at Orange County Angels next week.

Zack Collins (6): Collins is getting near full-time at-bats with Teoscar Hernández and Danny Jansen both hurt and out for several weeks. Collins profiles as a power-only bat (~20 HR per season) while being a drag on batting average (.210 AVG projection).

Jorge López (5): So far he has one Save and Win as the Orioles closer along with a ton of walks (6.8 BB/9). The added velocity (95 mph to 98 mph) and strikeouts (8.3 K/9 to 10.1 K/9) are nice, but his 1.50 WHIP (1.55 WHIP for his career) is going to be a drag for those grinding Saves.

Maikel Franco (5): He’s hitting (.283/.320/.413) and playing (started all 13 games). In some deeper leagues, that’s all that’s needed.

Erick Fedde (5): I’ve stated all I can on Fedde, as his changes have him with a respectable 9.9 K/9, 1.30 WHIP, and 3.60 (matching ERA estimators). Sexy no. Useful yes.

Ji-Man Choi (5): He is on fire (.423/.571/.769), but he and Harold Ramirez are in a platoon (Choi vs RHP). This week, the Rays face two lefties giving Choi just four starts. Hopefully, someone with equal talent and more playing time is on the wire.

Andrés Muñoz (5): In his first full season back from Tommy John surgery, the fireball throwing (100.5 average FBv) 23-year-old might could eventually be in line for Saves. His 20.3 K/9 is mouthwatering but generally useless unless he’s throwing in high-leverage spots. He’s been used in the eighth inning three times and the sixth once and has been able to accumulate one Win.

Cole Irvin (5): He was added because of a nice two-step this week against Baltimore and at Texas. His average fastball velocity is up 0.7 mph and its usage is down to 46%. These changes have his swinging-strike rate up to a career-high 10% SwStr% even though his strikeouts are down. The big issue is that he continues to throw a ton of pitches (6) and needs to drop a couple of the crappy ones (cutter and four-seamer). Until he takes the steps to improve, I don’t think Irvin is worth a permanent roster spot, just stream him in these instances.

Thairo Estrada (5): There is not a ton of prospect information but I gave this advice on him earlier this week.

All I have is steamer600. I might have been high on the HR but 19, 8 SB, .261 puts him in 2021 Nate Lowe/Bennentdi level pic.twitter.com/pyjgP6bsy3

— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) April 18, 2022

In most leagues, the 19 HR and 6 SB are playable, but the key will be for Estrada to play every day (started all 11 games this season). Tommy La Stella is still recovering from Achilles surgery and will need a rehab assignment before rejoining the team. I think Estrada is a fine fill-in but be ready to move on once his playing time takes a hit.

Jonah Heim (5): In four games so far, the Rangers backup catcher to Mitch Garver is hitting .400/.471/.800 with two homers. I just don’t think the volume will be there for him to be useful.

Sheldon Neuse (5): He’s started nine straight games (1B, 2B, 3B) while hitting .300/.382/.400 with one home run (vs Brett Phillips). It’ll be interesting to see if he can maintain anything close to a .421 BABIP with his 29% K%.