Big Kid Adds (Week 10)

Brett Davis-Imagn Images

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named Elite leagues (previously called High Stakes Leagues), and there are nine of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain every advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues.

Batters

Jorge Mateo (9): Mateo wasn’t playing much with the return of Ha-Seong Kim, but Kim has struggled to hit (.287 OPS). Mateo is now starting every game and has been a productive real-life hitter (.305/.345/.500) while always being a great source of steals (11 SB this year). While Mateo’s .396 BABIP won’t continue, some team in every Roto league should be able to find a roster spot for him.

Colton Cowser (7): On the season, Cowser’s been horrible (.221/.310/.354) while normally facing just righties. He got the weekend tax after going three for five on Saturday and Sunday with 1 HR, 3 R, and 4 RBI over 6 PA. Since then, he has not started a game and has no hits in 4 PA.

There is no reason to have Cowser on a roster right now with no playing time and no talent.

Jimmy Crooks (7): With several catchers on the IL and the current waiver wire options being trash (in my 15-team “Elite” league, Adrian Del Castillo, Carson Kelly, and Mitch Garver are the best waiver wire options), I was not surprised to see some interest in Crooks. In AAA, he hit 13 HR with a .262 AVG, but a 29% K%. The swing-and-miss has followed him to the majors with a 62% Contact%. For a comp, Munetaka Murakami is at 61% Contact%.

So far, the left-handed hitting Crooks has only started against righties, so he could really struggle against lefties. I don’t see anything more than a deep-league injury replacement.

Francisco Alvarez (7): Again, with so few catcher options, Alvarez is a decent early add since he’s about to go on a rehab assignment.

Curtis Mead (6): I’m not 100% sure Mead is even an average baseball player (career .668 OPS), but the 25-year-old is on a tear with 8 HR and 3 SB with a .243 AVG (.823 OPS) in 168 PA. While he’s been productive at times, over the last week or so he transitioned from being a short-side platoon bat to an everyday player. The improvement might stick because some of his underlying traits have improved. He has career bests in BB%, K%, Contact%, avgEV, Barrel%, and HardHit%. He’s one of the few must-adds of the guys featured today.

Vaughn Grissom (6): A bench target of mine now that he is qualified at first base and possibly third base in some leagues (8 G). He’s started 10 straight games while batting .246/.325/.410 with 4 HR on the season.

The 25-year-old improved his power (career-best avgEV, HardHit%, and BatSpeed) and contact rate (career-best Contact% and K%) to take this step forward. I think he’s been a bit unlucky with a .250 BABIP (.293 career BABIP).

I don’t see game-changing talent, but he is a decent bench streamer with position flexibility.

Leody Taveras (6): Being a healthy, regular outfielder while contributing some fantasy value made him a reasonable target. While he won’t hit for any power, he has 6 HR and a .275 AVG. And started in nine of the last 10 games.

Jorge Polanco (5): I thought Polanco was a decent bargain during draft season, but his injuries bother me. I have no faith that he can play regularly, even as the DH. Here is his manager:

Polanco seems to be trending in the right direction, but there may be a long way to go for him before rejoining the big league roster. He will likely have to play through pain for the entire season, though he is not currently at increased risk of an achilles tear.

“It’s to a point where he’s not going to be 100 percent,” Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said. “But as he went through the intensity [of baseball activities], the running the bases and the sprinting and all that, the next day, it’s like, ‘Hey, it’s not getting any worse. I feel better.’ The biggest thing was that it wasn’t getting any worse, and he was able to manage it and was like, ‘I’m good to go now.’”

After reading that, I’m not sure how someone can think he’ll be a regular, productive player.

Mickey Gasper (5): Another catcher. Gasper has no power or speed, but plays about half the time while batting .328/.375/.414 (.432 BABIP).

Wade Meckler (5): Meckler is a strong-side platoon bat with 2 HR and 2 SB and a .323 AVG in 33 PA. He falls into the bucket of left-handed streamers who are worth starting if they can face 6 righties in the week. While he might not hit for much power (.162 ISO in AAA), he could be a solid source of batting average in Colorado.

Starters

Troy Melton (9): Even though Melton throws a 96-mph fastball and has six pitches, he can’t find a way to miss bats (3.9 K/9 in 20 IP). He’s surviving off weak contact as seen by his .175 BABIP and 0.4 HR/9. With the low strikeout rate, he has a 4.69 xFIP, 5.25 SIERA, and 4.33 botERA. Not good.

So far, his sinker is his best-performing pitch with an 11% SwStr% and 75% GB%, both personal bests. He’s throwing his four-seamer the most with a 6% SwStr% but a nice pop-up inducing 31% GB%. The only other pitch of note is his slider with a 10% SwStr%.

Maybe the league is still adjusting to him, but pitchers don’t last long in the league with a sub-5.0 K/9 (no qualified pitcher has a strikeout rate under 5.0 K/9).

Gage Jump (9): I know more money was spent on Jared Jones coming back, but my projections preferred Jump by just a bit. Lots of times, I find the second-tier guys go for discounted rates in the week when one player draws all the attention.

In two starts so far, Jump has a 3.75 ERA (4.21 xFIP), 1.17 WHIP, and 7.5 K/9. He is attacking hitters with a 96.5 mph fastball and a slider (13% SwStr%) and curve (13% SwStr%) that our STUPH models love.

Solid #7 starting pitcher or bench streamer.

David Sandlin (8): After a great first start (1 ER in 6 IP) against the Twins, he had a stinker against the same team (8 ER in 4 IP). I could make up several narratives on his start to the season, but I’ll value him off his predictive stats of a 4.70 xFIP, 4.55 bot ERA, and 1.30 WHIP (4.34 equiv ERA). Those seem only usable in two-start weeks.

He’s got a few things to work out. The biggest red flag is his ineffective curveball (5% SwStr%, 20% GB), which he throws 30% of the time.

Sean Manaea (8): Let me drop this image. It’s the five-game rolling average for Manaea’s xFIP over the past six seasons.

There are some great stretches and some that are real not-so-good stretches. I’m not buying into another breakout.

Over his current five-game stretch, he has a 2.70 ERA (3.57 xFIP), 1.08 WHIP, and 9.7 K/9. His fastball velocity is up almost 2 mph over that stretch to 91.5 mph, but that was while in the bullpen. Will he keep the velo up while starting?

At best, I see him as a bench and monitor.

Jared Jones (5): I wish Jones had his second start in the books before writing this to see how he’d bounce back from his 5 ER in 4 IP debut. Signs point to a rebound with a 3.03 xFIP and 2.87 botERA. While all his pitches had a 10% SwStr% or higher, they each gave up hard contact.

Minnesota stacked the lineup with lefties (14 of 21 batters Jones faced were lefties), and they posted a 1.571 vs OPS, while the righties posted a .143 vs OPS. There needs to be more information on Jones to see where his talent level will stabilize.

Brandon Young (5): I’m not 100% why Young was being added with a 3.35 ERA (4.94 xFIP), 1.37 WHIP (3.6 BB/9), and 6.9 K/9. The WHIP is doing as much ratio damage as a 4.75 ERA. That’s unrosterable. It’s entirely possible people were looking over his recent games. Over his last four games, he has a 2.42 ERA (4.72 xFIP, 4.38 botERA). Maybe he just came off a dominating start against Toronto on Saturday (7 K, 1 BB, and 2 ER in 6 IP). There weren’t a ton of starting pitching options, so maybe he was their fourth or fifth option.

Young is working on a new splitter, but the results haven’t been there for it. Interesting, but with a major flaw.

Relievers

Kyle Finnegan (6): With Kenley Jansen on the IL, managers were hoping the pitcher with more walks (19) than strikeouts (16) would be the closer. That’s not a bet I want to take.

Clayton Beeter (6): Beeter returned from the IL and already has two Saves. A must-add in league with Saves.