Batter xwOBA Underperformers & Overperformers — Jun 2, 2026

It’s been nearly a month since I took my last look at batter xwOBA underperformers and overperformers, and a lot could change during that time. So let’s revisit the hitters who have underperformed and overperformed the most, determine whether it’s been a consistent trend, and decide if the hitter is due to perform closer to his xwOBA the rest of the way.

I chose a 150 PA minimum for the lists.

Let’s start with the underperformers.

Welp, I surely would not have guessed that Victor Caratini’s name would top this list. With Ryan Jeffers expected to be on the IL for months, the starting catcher job is now all his. His xwOBA is actually identical to last year, but his wOBA has crashed well below .300. A .219 BABIP and miniscule .060 ISO are driving the discrepancy. The low BABIP looks like a complete fluke, but his Statcast metrics do suggest his power has taken a hit. His HardHit% is at its lowest since 2020, maxEV at a career low, and Barrel% its worst since 2020 as well. Given his playing time situation, he does seem worth pursuing in deep leagues if you need a catcher, though I wouldn’t expect his recent power output to return.

Bo Bichette is no stranger to dramatically underperforming, as he posted an identical wOBA in 2024 with an xwOBA above .300. While his xwOBA is down from 2025, it’s not down significantly, and relatively in line with his career. A .245 BABIP and sub-.100 ISO are to blame for the gap here. He’s suddenly had an allergy to hitting line drives after never posting a mark below 20.4% (he’s at 16.8% now), which is odd. That has certainly hurt his BABIP, as those previous liners have mostly become fly balls. The Statcast power metrics look totally normal, so it’s pretty shocking to see just a 7.5% HR/FB rate and that tiny ISO. That he doesn’t steal bases anymore and is heavy reliant on BABIP to contribute positive batting average value caps the upside here, but he’s definitely a buy low in deeper mixed leagues and beyond.

I guess the Athletics either don’t look at xwOBA or don’t care about it when making playing time decisions as Lawrence Butler has lost his starting job to rookie Henry Bolte. Of course, one can argue that Butler’s xwOBA of just .297 isn’t worthy of a starting job to begin with, but he only posted a .310 actual mark last year and still accrued 630 PAs. It’s an unfortunate situation for Butler owners as his underlying skills seem stable to me with a good chance to turn his performance around if he was given another opportunity.

Even with a career best strikeout rate, Luis Rengifo’s xwOBA still sits at a career low. But that’s still far better than his actual mark! It’s actually pretty amazing that the first place Brewers can’t find anyone better to start at third base for them. From the skills, I would think there’s good rebound potential, but the upside just isn’t high enough to care outside of NL-Only leagues. And at some point, he’s going to become a bench player if he doesn’t rebound offensively. Oh wait, he hasn’t started the last two games, so has that officially happened already?

Oh, you thought this was a nice rebound year from Yordan Alvarez, huh? It has been, but it should be even better?! A .495 xwOBA is absurd. It’s cool that I rostered him last year and then I stupidly didn’t take the discount during draft season this year because the projections were too conservative. Maybe I should get back to my own Pod Projections…hmmmm.

I covered Brandon Nimmo yesterday as an xwOBA surger, but he’s also an underperformer because his wOBA has barely budged from last year, despite a spike in xwOBA. At age 33, I’m not confident he’ll maintain his career best Barrel%, but even if he doesn’t, his HR/FB rate should rise a bit.

Did you realize that Will Smith is posting the highest xwOBA of his career when only including full seasons? The gap here looks to be driven almost entirely by his power output, as his HR/FB rate has slipped into single digits for the first time, while his ISO is at a career low. And yet, his maxEV has matched his career high, his Barrel% is at a career high, and his BatSpd is at the highest we have a record of! Oddly, his HardHit% is down at its lowest since his 2019 debut, which is surprising considering the other positives. He’s an excellent catcher to target if you need one.

With a high LD% and GB%, zero pop-ups, and a Coors Field home, it’s shocking to see Edouard Julien’s BABIP sitting at just .287. His power has also been nonexistent despite a career best HardHit%. The upside here is clearly not very grand, so it’s understandable not to care. But he’s worth hanging onto in deep leagues.

Early in the season, I really thought Cam Smith was looking like a legit breakout guy. Instead, his wOBA now sits at the same sub-.300 mark it did last year, though his xwOBA has surged. With a robust 114.7 MPH maxEV and excellent Barrel%, plus a huge BatSpd increase, you would think he was in the midst of a major power breakout. However, his ISO has merely risen from .122 to .132, which is quite disappointing. He seems like a good target in keeper leagues as he should come cheaply and the power upside looks better than it did before the season began.

Let’s now flip over to the overperformers.

Mickey Moniak won’t get a chance to suffer performance regression until he returns from the IL, but amazingly, Statcast thinks he has actually been worse than last year. Some of that is because it’s hard to post a .303 BABIP with the combination of a low LD%, extreme FB%, and high IFFB%. What Statcast doesn’t know is that Moniak’s FB Pull% has skyrocketed, giving more credence to his career best HR/FB rate. If that continued, I think he would be able to maintain the HR/FB rate and he shouldn’t fall as far as his xwOBA suggests.

It’s hard to believe that Ernie Clement would be overperforming considering his BABIP of .309 looks normal and he has posted just a .150 ISO, driven by a 5.8% HR/FB rate. Perhaps the BABIP is too high given the flyball tendency and high IFFB%, but surely he can’t get that much lower than that HR/FB rate. Since he’s so BABIP and batting average dependent, he’s not for me and I don’t think he has a whole lot of trade value for owners to consider selling here.

It would seem Brooks Lee has taken a step forward offensively, but Statcast thinks otherwise. His power metrics are well below average, initially suggesting the improved HR/FB rate and ISO are flukes. However, he’s upped his FB Pull% to above league average, suggesting he won’t fall as hard as Statcast suggests in the power department. Still, with little speed and a neutral batting average at best, I’m not very excited about his future.

First, did you even realize that Tristan Peters has recorded 160 PAs with the White Sox this year? Even following their lineup all year thanks to owning Murakami, I didn’t even realize it. It’s clear from his profile that the good fortune stems from a .358 BABIP. His high LD% would support it, but he has also posted an ugly 20% IFFB%, which offsets some of those line drives. With no power and marginal speed, I wouldn’t count on him holding a starting job all year.

At this point, I don’t think Byron Buxton are worried about his performance regressing toward his xwOBA and are just counting their blessings that he’s made it into June healthy so far. His batted ball profile is crazy and very similar to Moniak, as it’s all fly balls, with a low LD% and too many popups. Still, how much lower could that .282 BABIP go? Perhaps his .303 ISO is a bit fortunate, but since it’s only being driven by a 19.5% HR/FB rate, and fantasy owners mostly just care about dingers, I can’t seem much of a decline in the latter. It’s too bad his steals are down, but again, his owners will take it. He’ll continue to be good until injury strikes.

A lucky wOBA has pushed Ceddanne Rafaela into the two hole which really increases his value. It appears that Statcast isn’t buying the .336 BABIP, but he has increased his LD%, and reduced his FB% and IFFB%, so those positive changes should definitely lead to a higher BABIP. Perhaps not this high though based on his contact quality. I don’t see a power breakout just yet, so he should continue what he’s doing, but with a bit of a lower average.

Wow, nothing looks out of place in Spencer Horwitz’s profile, as he’s walked more than he has struck out, while posting a career worst BABIP, a HR/FB rate right at his career average, and an ISO just above. The BABIP might head lower thanks to a career worst LD% and career high IFFB%, but those marks may also improve. Perhaps the power isn’t sustainable, but I can’t imagine a significant hit. All said, he’s delivered more value than I expected and is a bottom tier mixed league corner guy, with added value in OBP formats.

Hunter Goodman significantly overperformed last year and is doing it again this year. Some of it is undoubtedly his home park, but he continues to post an above average BABIP despite a flyball heavy profile, and Statcast continues not to buy it. The power is real, but his strikeout rate has gotten out of hand and that has hampered some of his numbers.

Injuries have resulted in much more playing time than expected for Ezequiel Duran and he’s been a nice little contributor across the board in deep leagues. But a .364 BABIP isn’t sustainable and Statcast isn’t buying his career best ISO either. Duran will have more to worry about when the Rangers get healthier, especially if and when that BABIP craters.

For the full list of xwOBA underperformers and overperformers, plus a plethora of additional metrics for both pitchers and batters updated weekly, visit ProjectingX.com to learn more about and subscribe to ProjectingX IQ at a new reduced price for the final four months of the season!