Batter Barrel Rate Gainers & Decliners — April 27, 2026

Among qualified batters between 2021 and 2025, there was a 0.86 correlation between Barrel% and HR/FB rate. That’s huge! It means we have a quick and easy way to determine whether a batter’s current HR/FB rate is real or not, and who might be expected to improve their mark or suffer a decline. So let’s dive into the batters that have enjoyed the largest surges and suffered the greatest declines in Barrel% this season.

Let’s begin with the gainers.

Not only is James Wood sporting the largest Barrel% gain this year, but he also leads qualified batters…by a lot. His HR/FB rate is all the way up at 37%, which ranks third in baseball, but nobody on this level is going to sustain a mark that high all season. That said, this has been a true massive breakout for Wood and it’s very clear how he’s done it, aside from ratcheting up his already elite HR/FB rate. His walk rate, already above average to begin with, has exploded, ranking fourth in baseball, while his FB%, a major weakness the last two seasons that was limiting his home run total, has skyrocketed. I wouldn’t be selling high, but that also relies on the assumption his FB% doesn’t dip back below 30% again.

It’s too bad Luke Raley can’t hit lefties. At age 31, I doubt he’s suddenly gained significantly more power, but he continues to make for a good daily transactions play for owners gambling on a home run.

Remember back in early December when I asked “Is Jordan Walker the Next Driveline Baseball Fueled Breakout?” So far, the answer is very much yes. His underlying metrics haven’t really changed much though, aside from a doubling of his Barrel%, fueling a HR/FB rate double his previous career high. So it’s been all about the power, which was very clearly always in that bat given his historically strong HardHit% and maxEV marks. Of course, he now hasn’t homered in nine straight games, after hitting an incredible seven home runs in his previous nine games. So it’s understandable to wonder if he just went through an unreal hot streak that will be followed by a return to his disappointing previous three season form, or if he’s really a changed man.

Unfortunately, one of his weaknesses hampering his HR/FB rate in the past was a low fly ball Pull%. Guess what? That hasn’t changed. In fact, his current mark is actually the lowest of his career. So to be honest, I’m not really sure what to expect the rest of the way, as an elite Barrel% doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll maintain that mark or anything close to it.

Though the expectation was Spencer Steer would serve in a reserve role this year, that didn’t happen, as he has pretty much been a Reds starter all year. Although he has rewarded his team and fantasy owners with a major Barrel% spike, that hasn’t translated into much of a HR/FB rate increase. Sure, it’s sitting at a career high, but barely. With similar HardHit% and maxEV marks as past years, I would bet the Barrel% is going to come crashing down and his HR/FB will remain in a similar spot.

Wait, does Michael Harris II realize it’s the first half of the season and not the second? While he was perfectly solid in the first half during his 2022 debut, he has gotten consistently worse every first half since and was truly terrible last year. Does this mean he’s going to flip the script and perform in the first half this year, and then disappear in the second?! Harris has raised his HardHit% to a new career high over 50% for the first time, driving a doubling of his Barrel% and HR/FB rate. He still doesn’t hit enough fly balls to take full advantage though, which is why he only has six home runs. Amazingly, he’s doing this with a career best strikeout rate too. At age 25, this looks like a true breakout.

It was only a matter of time before the whole world eagerly awaited the next Dillon Dingler Dinger. Dingler was perfectly solid last year, but he has cut his strikeout rate, doubled his Barrel%, and nearly doubled his HR/FB rate this season. His HardHit% has jumped over 50%, but interestingly, his maxEV sits at a below league average 107.7 MPH. It would be nearly impossible to maintain that HardHit% and Barrel% without increasing that maxEV, so his power outburst seems a bit fluky to me. That said, with more balls in play (unless his strikeout rate regresses) and a BABIP due to improve, he makes for a fine catcher option, particularly in two catcher leagues.

Speaking of catchers, Ryan Jeffers is trying to rebound from last year’s power outage, as his Barrel% now stands at a career best and his HR/FB is back into double digits. That HR/FB rate still looks low given the Statcast metrics, so he might have even more upside, especially considering he’s been over 20% once before. Plus, given the career high 50% FB% and career best strikeout rate, along with a massive walk rate surge, it’s been a fantastic start that makes you think he could be in for the best offensive season of his career.

Mike Trout is BACK! His Barrel% sits at a career high, though oddly his HR/FB rate is right in line with his previous three seasons, which is a step below his low-to-mid 20% marks during his peak power years, and one mark over 30%. He’s selling out for fly balls again, which is crushing his BABIP, but doing wonders for his home run total. That he’s already stolen four bases is a great sign. Do Trout owners shop him for someone with a better health record or ride him with fingers crossed? I don’t know!

Now we’ll move on to the decliners.

From big Barrel% gainer last year to top fantasy relevant decliner this year, this wasn’t the start Jo Adell fantasy owners were expecting. The good news, though, is nearly everything else in his stat profile. Sure, he has stopped walking, reducing his potential to score runs, but his strikeout rate is a career-best (though looks like a fluke given the 13% SwStr%), his HardHit% is at the second highest of his career and maxEV healthy, while his batted ball profile is more balanced, which could result in a higher BABIP and batting average, though hamper his home run upside given fewer fly balls. I think he’ll still finish with 30ish homers.

Did the Mets know something when they let Pete Alonso walk? He’s never posted a Barrel% below 12.3%, so this is really surprising. Strangely, his HardHit% stands at a career best, so it’s bizarre to see such an elite mark not also paired with a high Barrel%. I suspected there might be a cause and, after investigating, it looks like this might be the answer: his hard hit balls are coming on the ground! His groundball Hard% is easily at a career high, while his fly ball Hard% sits at its lowest since 2022. This is an example of why it’s better to bucket HardHit% by batted ball type since we don’t really care how hard he’s hitting his grounders. His walk rate is up, which is nice, but his strikeout rate is also at a career high. I don’t know what is going on here and I’m sure he’ll snap out of this power slump soon, but it’s been a disappointing start to his Orioles career.

Count Michael Busch as another name who was a big Barrel% gainer last year and now finds himself on the list of the biggest decliners. His HardHit% has dropped precipitously and now sits below league average, while his maxEV looks more like one recorded by a speedy slap hitter. To add insult to injury, his FB% has also collapsed, leading to even fewer home runs. The skills looked pretty darn good last year and at age 28, you wouldn’t expect sudden deterioration. He would likely be much easier to buy low on given his limited track record, though you would have to hope the power returns and there’s no deeper explanation other than just a weak 101 ABs so far.

With a return to the 20% HR/FB rate plateau, backed by a superb Barrel%, Jazz Chisholm Jr. enjoyed his first 30/30 season last year. This year, the steals have continued, but his power has eluded him. His HardHit% is down marginally, but not significantly, but his maxEV is similar to Busch’s at a well below average level. And man, that Barrel% is just over half his current season low mark. There’s nothing here that screams run away, so like Busch, you have to just assume it’s merely been a weak 93 ABs, rather than pitchers suddenly adjusting to void his power. He’s not going to come cheap like Busch might, and two straight games with a homer last week might make his owners think he’s breaking out of his slump. It couldn’t hurt to see how his owner is feeling though!

For the full list of Barrel% gainers and decliners, plus a plethora of additional metrics for both pitchers and batters updated weekly, visit ProjectingX.com to learn more about and subscribe to ProjectingX IQ.