Author Archive

Mining the News (2/17/21)

A heads up, from now on, I’m not going to reinforce any previous reports if nothing has changed. There is just too much news coming out to reconfirm past reports.

American League

Astros

Ryan Pressly remains the best closing option.

I’m not so sure the Astros won’t still try to acquire a closer, and they’ve shown strong interest in Trevor Rosenthal, who remains on the market. If they can reel him in, they’d have the makings of an elite bullpen. Without Rosenthal, they have a few options. Ryan Pressly would likely get the first shot at it. He converted 11 of 13 saves last year after Roberto Osuna got injured.

• Also, Myles Straw remains the top center field option.

As much as the return of Marisnick would have made a nice story, the Astros feel it’s time to see if the 26-year-old Straw can be their everyday center fielder and replace the departed George Springer. Marisnick and Straw share many of the same tools, too, so having two right-handed-hitting speedy center fielders probably isn’t the best way to take up two roster spots. It’s a great opportunity for Straw, but if he can’t take advantage of it, Houston will have to try to find a replacement via trade in the regular season. As for now, it’s Straw’s job to lose. And don’t forget Pedro Leon — the Cuban player who signed for $4 million last month — is probably on a fast track to the big leagues as well.

The same Straw who has a .649 career OPS and is coming off a .500 OPS season. But he steals bases. So does Dee Strange-Gordon and Billy Hamilton and they aren’t starting in center field anywhere.
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Fantasy Baseball Chat With Jeff Zimmerman

11:05
Jeff Zimmerman: Sorry for the delay, my heat pump just went up in smoke

11:06
Jeff Zimmerman: I need to call for an appointment

11:06
Jeff Zimmerman: Also, I’m in an area with rolling blackouts so the chat could end at anytime.

11:07
Steals: Favorite late round targets for steals in OBP leagues?

11:07
Jeff Zimmerman: None

11:07
Jeff Zimmerman: Managers need to deal with steals by then because all the options are sad.

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Mining the News (2/11/21)

American League

Athletics

• The second base job is up in the air since the team traded for Elvis Andrus.

This is an area that Forst still believes can be addressed internally — and another area that could see a position player battle over in spring training. Forst mentioned Chad Pinder, Sheldon Neuse — he said Neuse would get a “long look” in spring training — Tony Kemp and Vimael Machín. All of these candidates can play multiple positions, and two of them, Kemp and Machín, are left-handed hitters. Pinder and Kemp are the veterans of the group, while Neuse and Machín have limited big-league experience. Neuse projects to have the higher ceiling of the two young players offensively, has good footwork and a strong arm defensively.

Right now, four below-average players are fighting for one spot. Just stay away until there is some clarity.
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Simple Draft Tracking Spreadsheet

Over at Reddit, zoomzilla asked:

Is there a place I can import a player ranking list of my choosing that I can take drafted players off as they are drafted?

And I provided an answer (I’m TucsonRoyal) that can be used once someone has a set of rankings. First, it’s simple. Second, it’s on Google sheets so fantasy co-managers can share it.

I’m hesitant about even posting this because there is a subset of fantasy managers who want their hand held along each step. I’m not here for that. Sorry, I’m here to teach fishing, not to hand them out. The following will produce a simple tracker that takes just a minute or two to set up.
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Fantasy Baseball Chat With Jeff Zimmerman

11:01
Jeff Zimmerman: Good afternoon and congrats on blowing off your real work for the important stuff.

11:01
BringBackDeSpanielHair: MLB actually owns up to changing the ball for ’21. First thoughts on which hitters will see the biggest drop off with shorter fly balls? Obv, mammoths like Stanton and Alonso won’t see much of an effect on their HR totals.

11:02
Jeff Zimmerman: This is the million dollar question after the news broke yesterday. From what I got is that about a 1.5 ft drop in distance.

11:04
Jeff Zimmerman: I’m guessing the Doubter leaderboard at Savant is the best place to start: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/home-runs

11:04
Brian: Thoughts on how Chris Archer going back to the Rays impacts his fantasy value? Does being in that org devalue him in a league that scores quality starts?

11:06
Jeff Zimmerman: In the Launch Angle Pod yesterday, Todd Zola, Van Lee, and I dug in. I think he’s a perfect reserve round dart where he can be dropped if things are clicking.

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Late-Round Evaluations: Puk, Cease, Bumgarner, Mize, & Others

I’m continuing my attention on fringe starters. They are the starters who once the season starts, managers are going to have to make a quick decision on adding or dropping. These pitchers will be in play all season. I’m using NFBC’s ADP and starting at the bottom and selecting any starter drafted by half the teams.

Here is an evaluation of six more starters. You can find the other editions here:

  • Part 1: Houck, Akin, Dunn, Schmidt
  • Part 2: Webb, Kremer, Stripling, Richards
  • Part 3: Quintana, Minor, Hill, Peralta, Morejon
  • Part 4: Margevicius, Chatwood, Plutko, Marquez, Lucchesi, Balazovic, Abbot
  • Part 5: Lodolo, Castellani, Bailey, Chirinos, Rodon, Cody, Cobb, Hamels
  • Part 6: Perez, Matz, Fiers, Porcello, Gray, Lynch
  • Part 7: McClanahan, Jefferies, Sandoval, Lester, Voth, Velasquez
  • Part 8: McKay, Akin, Gibson, Cueto, Archer, Honeywell, Fleming
  • Part 8: Barria, Loaisiga, Wood, DeSclafani, Freeland, Martin,
  • Part 9: Wood (again), Dobnak, Suter, Archer, Senzatela, Brault, Whitley, Kelly
  • Part 10: Wilson, Arihara, Wacha, Wright, Duffy, Mills
  • Part 11: Manning, Pivetta, Bubic, Shoemaker, Brubaker, Gomber
  • Part 12: Houser, Patiño, Gilbert, Ponce de Leon, Wainwright, Martinez
  • Part 13: Gray, Weaver, Happ, Severino, Syndergaard, Sale, Lorenzen, Mikolas

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Mining the News (2/5/21)

Free Agents

Mike Foltynewicz threw for teams.

Great, 90 to 92, just what he was throwing last season when he was cut. Over his career, he’s sat at over 95.5 mph and only has a 4.33 ERA. Continue to ignore.

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Late-Round Evaluations: Gray, Weaver, Happ, and Tommy John Returnees

I’m continuing my attention on fringe starters. They are the starters who once the season starts, managers are going to have to make a quick decision on adding or dropping. These pitchers will be in play all season. I’m using NFBC’s ADP and starting at the bottom and selecting any starter drafted by half the teams.

Here is an evaluation of eight more starters. You can find the other editions here:

  • Part 1: Houck, Akin, Dunn, Schmidt
  • Part 2: Webb, Kremer, Stripling, Richards
  • Part 3: Quintana, Minor, Hill, Peralta, Morejon
  • Part 4: Margevicius, Chatwood, Plutko, Marquez, Lucchesi, Balazovic, Abbot
  • Part 5: Lodolo, Castellani, Bailey, Chirinos, Rodon, Cody, Cobb, Hamels
  • Part 6: Perez, Matz, Fiers, Porcello, Gray, Lynch
  • Part 7: McClanahan, Jefferies, Sandoval, Lester, Voth, Velasquez
  • Part 8: Barria, Loaisiga, Wood, DeSclafani, Freeland, Martin,
  • Part 9: Wood (again), Dobnak, Suter, Archer, Senzatela, Brault, Whitley, Kelly
  • Part 10: Wilson, Arihara, Wacha, Wright, Duffy, Mills
  • Part 11: Manning, Pivetta, Bubic, Shoemaker, Brubaker, Gomber
  • Part 12: Houser, Patiño, Gilbert, Ponce de Leon, Wainwright, Martinez
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Regressing StatCast: A Fable

This fable is inspired by Eric Hosmer and Dansby Swanson. In my last article, I noticed both improved in some of their StatCast metrics. So, I wondered how much should the values regress? After wasting more time than I’ll admit roaming for the answers, I remembered I already discovered the answers when creating my StatCast projections. Magically the season weightings work out to simply splitting the difference between 2019 and 2020 value. Normally, the most recent season would carry more weight, but with 2020’s limited sample, the two StatCast metrics (launch angle and max exit velocity) carry equal weight. Now, I can continue drudging through life. The end.


Fantasy Baseball Chat With Jeff Zimmerman

11:01
Jeff Zimmerman: It’s time to start today’s chat. Hope everyone has had their coffee.

11:01
Raggedy Nick Burkett: Any non top 10 catchers you feel confident will start 120+games?  Thanks much as usual.

11:02
Jeff Zimmerman: Tucker Barnhart

11:02
ScottTINSTAAPP: Jeff I’ve been enjoying the late round pitching dives, super helpful. For guys who we want to see more velocity from to take a chance on, how much stock do you put into spring training velocities? I know some guys ramp up throughout the year so is there any way you try to parse what velocity changes (or lack thereof) in spring are sustainable and what we should expect over the year?

11:02
Jeff Zimmerman: First, thanks.

11:03
Jeff Zimmerman: Spring Train velocity for starters is very sticky.

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