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Mining the News (3/14/22)

Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

American League

Angels

• The Angels are going with a six-man rotation.

The Halos will have a six-man rotation again in 2022, so they could look to add another starter.

• In the shortstop battle, Joe Maddon thinks Andrew Velazquez has a leg up on the competition.

Outside of pitching, the club’s biggest weakness is at shortstop. Maddon said he sees Andrew Velazquez as the current leader there, ahead of Luis Rengifo and Tyler Wade. All three will compete for the job, but there remains a chance the Angels acquire a shortstop.

Projected wOBA for the three shortstops
Velazquez: .290
Rengifo: .304
Wade: .281
Read the rest of this entry »


NL LABR Reserve Round Picks

Earlier this week, I examined some of the reserve round picks in the AL LABR auction. Today, I’ve moved to the NL auction. To put it simply, the player talent took a significant step down from the AL options. So many players were rostered who will never make it to the majors this season or are just plain bad. For example, Nomar Mazara, who has yet to sign with a team and never had a productive major league season, was rostered.

Here are all the reserve picks


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AL LABR Reserve Round Picks

Every year, USA Today’s Steve Gardner hosts four LABR drafts and auctions. The LABR draft happened a couple of weeks ago with the three auctions (12 team AL, NL, and mixed) happening this past weekend. I was lucky enough to participate in the 12-team mixed auction (more on it later), but the most useful information is digging into the reserve picks. Sometimes I’ve never even heard of them. I’m going to dive into some of these end-game players from the AL auction and look for any hidden gems.

Here are all the reserve picks

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Summation of 2021 Projection Accuracy

Earlier this offseason I examined the accuracy of several projections. I’m going to give my recommendations today on the best way to balance those findings between getting the best results and keeping the process simple. I’m going to focus on playing time and stats for pitchers and hitters. While there could a way to weigh every single stat of every projection, it’s just a waste of time in my opinion. The best answer is to aggregate the best options.

I know some people will want a more in-depth answer while the following will be too much for others. Some projections, like ATC, are already trying to perfect the mix and still fall short of a straight average. The cause for the disconnect is that some of the stand-alone projections are constantly improving. What may be the best projection mix in one season is suboptimal in the next. I’m willing to have 95% of the projection accuracy and instead spend my time looking for information that the projections might have missed. Read the rest of this entry »


Auction Calculator Draft Sheet

Be sure to check out Lucas Kelly’s Beginning Guide to the Calculator

After going over what several members of our team would like in a draft prep spreadsheet, we made one that takes the output from our auction calculator and creates position rankings.

Important: We tried to include all the necessary information into the Google Sheet, but it won’t be ideal for everyone. You are encouraged to customize it to your tastes as it’d be too hard to take all individual requests to set up the perfect one for everyone. Read the rest of this entry »


Mining the News (3/1/2021)

American League

Blue Jays

Nate Pearson was told before the lockout to prepare to be in the rotation.

Before the lockout, in your end-of-year talks with the team or offseason talks, did they give you any indication of what your role might look like this year? Or was it just like go into the offseason, prepare to be stretched out and we’ll go from there?

Yeah, that was basically it. Just come in, you’re going to come in as a starter and you’re going to provide some depth for us. We’re going to build you up and we’ll see how it goes from there. And that’s exactly how I’m approaching it. I don’t know exactly what my role will be, whether I’ll be in the rotation, or a long-relief guy or bullpen guy. Whatever it may be, just be ready for it. And that’s exactly my mentality and my mindset going into it.

I don’t think he can stay healthy enough to remain in the rotation. He’ll have to transition to the bullpen leading to another up and down summer.

Rays

Tommy Pham would be willing to play some first base, especially for the Rays.

Tommy Pham is one of the many free agents still without a contract for 2022, and the lockout has only added to the uncertainty facing Pham’s market following a pair of underwhelming seasons with the Padres. However, Pham is looking to increase his positional value, with The Tampa Bay Times’ Marc Topkin writing that the veteran outfielder is “open to playing first base if needed.”

Specifically, Pham said he would be interested in playing first base in a second stint with the Rays, as Pham played in Tampa during the 2018-19 seasons. The Rays are known to be looking for a right-handed hitting first base option, and a reunion with Pham would be a creative way of addressing that need.

Red Sox

Garrett Whitlock was told to come into Spring Training to be a starter and the team will adjust from there.

[Whitlock] would love to be a starter again.

“I enjoy starting,” he said. “I love the routine behind it and everything, but at the same time, I’m a competitor. So whenever you tell me to go out there and get outs, I’m going to treat it as if it’s a 0-0 ballgame and I’ve got to bury you and I’ve got to put you away.

“So it doesn’t matter to me whether that’s the first pitch of the game or the ninth inning or anywhere in between.”

Red Sox manager Alex Cora hasn’t asked him to start.

“I’m a Year 2 guy now,” Whitlock said. “I haven’t earned that.”

Before the lockout, the Sox gave him some advice.

“They told me to come in prepared to be, like, fighting for a starting job, and they’ll reevaluate it from there,” he said. “So I’m going to build up and I’m going to go in and be as prepared as I can be.”

His role will likely depend on how many other players the team adds.

Matt Barnes blames several factors for last season’s decline.

Barnes, 31, doesn’t think his problems from last year will linger into the future. He believes a variety of factors contributed to his sharp decline.

“I think it was kind of a perfect storm of scenarios,” he said. “I threw a lot in a short period of time and I think, as a pitcher, you try to create what you had when you were completely fresh. That, in turn, creates bad habits. That happens, then trying to fix it and it felt like we were getting close and I had to sit down for a couple of weeks because I got COVID (Aug. 30-Sept. 17). I then just ran out of time.”

One interesting point is how he was used. His results were all over the place depending on the amount of rest he had (horrible with zero and two days, great with one or three). I wonder if the Red Sox would go with dual closers with Barnes getting 25 or so Saves and another arm accumulating about 10. It’s something to monitor.

Twins

Jim L. states:

Are there analytics around the costs/benefits of a versus a [DH] job-share situation?

With all the respects to Jim, I don’t care about your question, but it did get me to look into the Twins DH usage after Cruz was traded.

Post Nelson Cruz DH Usage
Name Count %
Donaldson 27 53%
Rooker 7 14%
Polanco 6 12%
Sano 5 10%
Arraez 4 8%
Garver 2 4%

That’s a lot of Josh Donaldson. It’ll be interesting to see who gets the starts at third base (e.g. Jose Miranda or Luis Arraez). And more importantly, how often?

National League

Cardinals

Giovanny Gallegos is not the team’s closer according to their GM.

During November’s general manager meetings, Mozeliak indicated the team did not have a set closer in mind for 2022. Gallegos could be a candidate for that role, but it’s unlikely the Cardinals name one until they complete their bullpen. They are expected to add one more reliever after the lockout, preferring an established veteran with experience in a multitude of roles.

Gallegos has an NFBC ADP around 115 which seems a little high considering the uncertainty.

Diamondbacks

Dan Straily 스트레일리 , who signed with the Diamondbacks, revamped his arsenal in Korea.

“I went over there because I had some things to work on,” Straily said. “And I was very aware of that. So I got over there and just went to work on them.”

Straily completely changed his curveball grip, worked on fine-tuning his changeup after watching what was a plus pitch for him flatten out over the years, and developed consistency with his cut fastball.

Here at FanGraphs, we have some pitch data from Korea with his fastball averaging 90.7 mph. It was his highest average since his debut season in 2012 when he sat 91.3 mph.

Mets

• The Mets (and others) might go with a six-man rotation to ramp up their starters.

That training camp was just over three weeks; if we have another one in the three- to four-week range — which seems likely — I wouldn’t be surprised if the Mets (and other teams) adopted a six-man rotation early in the season and/or carried an extra arm in the bullpen for piggybacking purposes. A player like Trevor Williams could be useful in both roles for New York.


What’s Worse in Roto, a .220 AVG or a 5.00 ERA?

Here is a tale of two tweets.

The first one tries to see if fantasy managers would consider rostering a great pitcher in every regard except they would have a 5.00 ERA.

And now the same options (I see the steam vs. stream mistake, my bad!) but for a hitter who is projected to have a .220 AVG.

The results are a stark difference. The deal is that a .220 AVG and a 5.00 ERA will hurt a roto team the same amount. While it may not be obvious, a little math might help. To determine the effects, I took the Standings Gain Points equations from 15-team redraft leagues from The Process (a great resource, you should buy it).

AVG SGP = ((1669+H)/(6525+AB)-0.256)/0.0012

ERA SGP = (((489+ER)*9)/(1122+IP)-3.92)/(-0.0566)

These formulas determine how much a fantasy team would move up and down the standings based on the rate stat. The volume does matter since it’s worse to add 150 innings of a 5.00 ERA to a team than just 20 innings. Read the rest of this entry »


Deep League Starting Pitchers (Meyer, Howard, Anderson, & Quintana)


Deep League Starting Pitchers (Irvin, Beede, Keller, & Lorenzen)


Mining the News (2/21/22)

Niko Goodrum expects to have a major league contract.

Niko Goodrum is one of the many free agents still waiting to land his next contract, though the utilityman told The Detroit News’ Chris McCosky that he had plenty of interest prior to the lockout. The Tigers outrighted Goodrum off their 40-man roster in mid-November and he chose to test the open market, saying “we had been in contact with 10 teams….Seven of them were looking to offer big-league deals.”

For those fantasy managers in draft-and-hold leagues, he might be worth a late flier.

American League

Guardians

• There is a chance that Amed Rosario could pick up second base eligibility this season.

Andrés Giménez and Gabriel Arias are expected to vie for Opening Day infield consideration, and both are regarded as superior defensive shortstops. Could Rosario quickly learn second base?

Read the rest of this entry »