I completed the counting stat analysis on early March pitcher counting stats after finishing the hitter projection comparisons (part 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5).  it is time for the pitchers to take center stage. For the first article, I’ll measure the accuracy of counting stats from early March. The results were mixed this time with the aggregators having a decent showing.

First, here are the projections analyzed.

• Steamer (FanGraphs)
• ZIPS
• DepthCharts (FanGraphs)
• THE BAT
• Davenport
• ATC (FanGraphs)
• Pod (Mike Podhorzer)
• Masterball (Todd Zola)
• PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus)
• RotoWire
• Razzball (Steamer)
• Paywall #1
• Average of the above projections

To create a list of players to compare for accuracy, I took the TGFBI ADP (players in demand at that time) and selected all the pitchers in the top-450 drafted players (30-man roster, 15 teams in the Main Event) in ten or more leagues. Then I removed all the pitchers who never threw an inning. Read the rest of this entry »

Now that the analysis hitter projection comparisons (part 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5) are done, it is time for the pitchers to take center stage. For the first article, I’ll measure the accuracy of counting stats from early March. Razzball had a near clean sweep as it only missed on Saves.

First, here are the projections analyzed.

• Steamer (FanGraphs)
• ZIPS
• DepthCharts (FanGraphs)
• The Bat
• Davenport
• ATC (FanGraphs)
• Pod (Mike Podhorzer)
• Masterball (Todd Zola)
• PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus)
• RotoWire
• Razzball (Steamer)
• Paywall #1
• Average of the above projections

To create a list of players to compare for accuracy, I took the TGFBI ADP (players in demand at that time) and selected all the pitchers in the top-450 drafted players (30-man roster, 15 teams in the Main Event) in ten or more leagues. Then I removed all the pitchers who never threw an inning. Read the rest of this entry »

American League

Mariners

• Even if healthy, Evan White might start the season the minors.

1B Evan White (signed through 2025, club options for ’26, ’27, ‘28)

White’s recovery from left hip surgery in July will be one of the biggest storylines entering Spring Training, especially given that Dipoto wasn’t sure if the 25-year-old would be 100 percent healthy by then. Given his $24 million contract, Seattle is invested in his future. But his spot at first isn’t necessarily written in ink like it was after he first signed that deal — and the Mariners won’t have any hesitation playing him at Triple-A Tacoma if his bat needs more work.

Read the rest of this entry »

I’ve been slowly working my way through the hitter projections and that journey comes to an end today as I examine how each projected hitter rate stats stand up. Besides batting average, I turn each of the counting stats into a rate by dividing by plate appearances. Finally, I adjust each value to the actual league rates. Again, any combination of projections stick out along with the BAT.

For reference, here are the projections used.

• Steamer (FanGraphs)
• ZIPS
• DepthCharts (FanGraphs)
• The Bat
• The Bat X
• Davenport
• ATC (FanGraphs)
• Pod (Mike Podhorzer)
• Masterball (Todd Zola)
• PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus)
• RotoWire
• Razzball (Steamer)
• ZEILE (Fantasy Pros)*
• Paywall #1
• Average of the above projections

To create a list of players to compare for accuracy, I took the NFBC Main Event ADP (players in demand at that time) and selected the hitters in the top-450 drafted players (30-man roster, 15 teams in the Main Event). To determine accuracy, I calculated the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) for two different sets of values. RMSE is a “measure of how far from the regression line data points are” and the smaller a value the better. Additionally, I included the actual and league average rates for reference. Read the rest of this entry »

After diving into early draft hitter projections, the late draft season hitter projections get their time in the sun. First up is the counting stats that are heavily influenced on accurately guesstimating playing time. As with the early projections, the Bat and the Wisdom of the Crowds stand out with the addition of the Pod projections joining the others near the top.

For the projections, I pulled the following ones from the morning of March 30.

• Steamer (FanGraphs)
• ZIPS
• DepthCharts (FanGraphs)
• The Bat
• The Bat X
• Davenport
• ATC (FanGraphs)
• Pod (Mike Podhorzer)
• Masterball (Todd Zola)
• PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus)
• RotoWire
• Razzball (Steamer)
• ZEILE (Fantasy Pros)*
• Paywall #1

I didn’t run the values on CBS even though I pulled them. They were missing quite a few players and I messed up not pulling the Utility-onlys. Additionally, I pulled the ZEILE projections which are an average of several projections. Read the rest of this entry »

The following analysis is beyond nerdy.

I’ll try to keep it simple as possible, but no guarantees. This past week, I examined the results of several hitter projection systems. In the comments of the first article, Mays Copeland and Skin Blues brought up a near 15-year-old thread on the InsideTheBook blog between Tom Tango and Nate Silver. Read the rest of this entry »

Free Agents

• Seiya Suzuki of Japan’s Hiroshima Carp might get posted this winter.

The Hiroshima Carp of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball could make top outfielder Seiya Suzuki available to Major League teams via the posting system this winter, according to a report from Yahoo Japan. The Carp have begun taking some of the necessary steps, per the report, conducting a recent MRI for updated medical records and beginning to put together the requisite paperwork.
…
Hernandez quotes a big league scout calling Suzuki a “five-tool guy” and “the best player in Japan the last few years.” Sung Min Kim 김민, who’s written for both FanGraphs and The Athletic, tweets that several MLB Pacific Rim scouts have considered Suzuki the top NPB or KBO player with a realistic chance of being posted in recent years.

Suzuki is an interesting add for leagues where every player is rostered. I looked around for some projections or MLE’s and no one has any yet. Once they become available, I’ll post them here. Read the rest of this entry »

In my last article, I focused on the early-season projection accuracy of hitter playing time. Today, the rest of the standard 5×5 Roto hitting stats finally take center stage. Besides the counting stats, I turn each of them into rate stats to help determine projection accuracy. After completing the analysis, three options stick out.

As a reminder, here are the projections I used and some background on the analysis.

Projections

• Steamer (FanGraphs)
• ZIPS
• DepthCharts (FanGraphs)
• The Bat
• The Bat X
• Davenport
• ATC (FanGraphs)
• Pod (Mike Podhorzer)
• Masterball (Todd Zola)
• PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus)
• RotoWire
• CBS
• Razzball (Steamer)
• Paywall #1

To create a list of players to compare for accuracy, I took the TGFBI ADP (players in demand at that time) and selected the hitter in the top-450 drafted players (30-man roster, 15 teams in TGFBI). Generally, all the players were projected with the following exceptions. Rotowire and Pods didn’t have a Josh Rojas projection while Pods also didn’t have projections for Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Mike Brosseau. Additionally, CBS was missing several projections. I am blamed for part of it because I forgot to pull designated hitters and they didn’t project as many outfielders. Finally, I just removed the projection for Yasiel Puig. Read the rest of this entry »

I’ve always wanted to do a projection analysis, especially at different time points. I had it started in 2020 and everything fell apart with the shortened season. I’m starting off simply today by looking at at-bat projections from March 1st with the Wisdom of the Crowds prevailing.

The reason I chose March 1st was that The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational (TGFBI) started drafted that day. I pulled all 14 projections that morning. I contacted the paid providers and all but one agreed to have their name associated with the results. They are:

Projections

• Steamer (FanGraphs)
• ZIPS
• DepthCharts (FanGraphs)
• The Bat
• The Bat X
• Davenport
• ATC (FanGraphs)
• Pod (Mike Podhorzer)
• Masterball (Todd Zola)
• PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus)
• RotoWire
• CBS
• Razzball (Steamer)
• Paywall #1

Read the rest of this entry »

American League

Angels

• The six-man rotation is staying with Patrick Sandoval and José Suarez in the rotation.

The Angels are expected to use a six-man rotation next year with Shohei Ohtani, Patrick Sandoval and José Suarez essentially locks to be part of it.

For those in early season draft-and-holds and best balls, Sandoval and Suarez are reasonable mid to late-round options. Read the rest of this entry »