I am examining starters going later than pick 300 in the latest NFBC ADP.
Here are the previous editions:
- Eflin, Garrett, Carrasco, & Gore
- Wesneski, Clevinger, Quantrill, & Steele
- Walker, Pérez, Manaea, & Bello
- Megill, Stripling, Jameson, & Civale
- Whitlock, Houck, Gray, & Maeda
- Peterson, Matz, Syndergaard, & Quintana
- Bradish, Wainwright, Soroka, & Ortiz
- Morris, Keller, Wood, & Suarez
- Waldichuck, Painter, Falter, & Wacha
- Rodriguez, Pivetta, Hall, & Germán
- Nelson, Turnbull, Martinez, & DeSclafani
- Pfaadt, Skubal, Smyly, Muller, & Cavalli
The 36-year-old threw decent last season with a 4.34 ERA (3.85 SIERA), 1.21 WHIP, and a 7.6 K/9. After dealing with injuries for a few seasons, he was able to make 31 starts and get 10 Wins.
He’s lost quite a bit of velocity off his sinker (3% SwStr%, 39% GB%) over the past few seasons but he just threw it 25% of the time this past season.
The sinker is horrible but he’s completely backed off its usage with his cutter being his primary pitch. Now, his three non-fastballs get a decent amount of swing-and-miss.
Pitch: SwStr%, Usage
Cutter: 14%, 34%
Slider: 14%, 27%
Change: 19%, 10%
I just don’t see any upside unless he regains some velocity or completely backs off throwing the sinker. If he can stay healthy, he should be a decent part-time streamer.
I feel like I’m right in the middle of the sub-par volume options. Irvin threw 181 innings of 3.98 ERA and 1.16 WHIP ball with a 6.4 K/9. Even with the low strikeout rate, he had the 75th most strikeouts last season and volumed himself to the 146th best pitcher. Depending on the league’s depth, he was either a bench or waiver wire streamer.
Looking forward, the 28-year-old lefty doesn’t have much upside.
He is already not walking anyone with a 1.8 BB/9 last season and a 2.1 BB/9 during his career. His best pitch is his 91-mph four-seamer with a 12% SwStr% and a 31% GB%. Its results are better than 90% of all fastballs in the game. The swinging-strike rate on all the rest of his pitches is lower than his fastball. His change and slider were both at an 11% SwStr%.
One change he could make is to ditch his sinker (25% usage, 5% SwStr%, 42% GB%) and just go four-seam, change, and slider. If he kept their combined swinging strike rates, he would have similar results as Zack Wheeler (11% SwStr%, 2.0 BB/9) and Julio Urias (11% SwStr%, 2.1 BB/9). I doubt he’ll make such a radical adjustment, so it’ll be another boring year 180 below-average innings.
There is no reason to roster any Rockies pitchers besides closers and that includes Marquez. He posted a 7.4 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9. Those stats are comparable to the two pitchers above. Marquez has the disadvantage of throwing half his starts in Colorado therefore his rate stats get pushed up (4.95 ERA, 1.37 WHIP) so compared to those going around, he needs to be ignored.
There is probably a point when his road starts against weak opponents come into play, but so three to four starts during the season. Marquez and his supporting cast aren’t good enough to push his value any higher. Looking over the entire NFBC, I would value him sometime after a 650 ADP.
Boyd missed most of the 2022 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery. He returned in September in time to make 10 relief appearances. While he posted a 1.35 ERA (1.61 BABIP) during that stretch, he did so with a 5.4 BB/9 (Zone% down from 53% before the surgery to 47%).
He was throwing his pitches about 0.5 mph harder than before and using them at about the same rate. The one except would be a sinker he threw 15% of the time. The last time he threw a sinker that much was back in 2017.
Overall, it should be a nice groundball pitch with his own 2018 sinker coming in as a comp. Maybe the sinker will help keep the home runs under control (career 1.6 HR) especially with his home fences moving in.
It’s tough to know what to expect from him next season. The lack of control is concerning, but many pitchers struggle with control when returning from Tommy John surgery. I just don’t see a reason to gamble on a pitcher with a career 4.90 ERA in ~800 IP.
