Waiver Wire Report (Preseason)

Mike Watters-USA TODAY Sports

It’s time to start looking at possible free-agent adds as many leagues have their first waiver wire run tonight. I feel that many fantasy managers are wanting to sit tight with their teams since, besides a few injuries, most of the regulars still have their jobs and projected talent. If there was one group I’d focus on today, it’s the closers. Several managers have voiced their opinions on how their bullpens will play out and roles have changed quite a bit over the past couple of weeks.

In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.

Hitters

Jeremy Peña: I moved him around this list but I came to the conclusion that some team in every league needs to be taking a chance on him. He’s a 24-year-old power-speed threat who will be hitting in a loaded Astros lineup. If he falls on his face, drop him and move on, but this will likely be the last chance to roster him if he’s productive.

Amed Rosario: He probably needs universal rostership numbers. He provides some power to go with his steals and could quickly gain outfield eligibility.

Tommy Pham: Pham is fine when healthy. The Reds won’t help his counting stats, but the hope is that Pham can get back to hitting 20 HR/20 SB and a .275 AVG as he averaged from 2017 to 2019.

Lorenzo Cain: I’m pretty high on Cain. While he has the propensity to get hurt, he is healthy now and needs to be starting in any league that counts stolen bases.

Josh Rojas: I was worried he wasn’t going to have a full-time role coming into the season, but he looks to be Arizona’s full-time third baseman. He’s another power-speed combo guy and is qualified at three positions. Ed. note: Sunday morning brought news of a grade 2 oblique strain that will cost him “weeks, not days” according to manager Torey Lovullo.

Myles Straw: A straight-up speed (30 SB in 2021) play who could help in OBP leagues (.349 OBP in 2021) but provide no power.

Bobby Dalbec: In my opinion, Dalbec has Boston’s first base job until he fails and Triston Casas takes over. There was some hope with Dalbec in the second half when he hit .269/.344/.611 with 15 HR and just a 31% K% (19% in Spring Training).

Ian Happ: Boring steady play with a secure role and projected for a balanced 25 HR, 8 SB, and a .240 AVG.

Jesús Sánchez: A 25-30 HR power source with a secure job hitting in the top half of the Marlins’ improved lineup.

Tony Kemp: The A’s aren’t going to have the best team, but it looks like Kemp will be starting every day and leading off against righties. His Steamer600 has him with 12 HR and 11 SB with a .256 AVG. A steady producer while being qualified at second base and outfield.

Bryson Stott: Another tough rank with his options being the Phillies starting third baseman or he is in the minors. His Steamer600 puts his talent at 17 HR, 9 SB, and a .251 AVG.

Andrew Benintendi: I’ve been off Benintendi because I don’t know if he’s going to continue to steal bases. Over the first two months of 2021, he was six for 11 on the bases (55%). Over the last four months, he attempted just six steals and was successful only twice (33%). While all the projections have him at 10+ stolen bases, I think he can only be counted on for around 5 to go with about 18 HR and a .270 AVG. Ed. note: Beni did have a mid-season rib injury that may have contributed to his ugly SB% over the summer. If healthy, I (Sporer) think he gets back to his double-digit SB ways. 

Nathaniel Lowe: He doesn’t provide the expected first base power (projected for ~20 HR) but should hit for a decent .260 AVG and steal a half dozen or so bases.

J.P. Crawford: Lots of Crawford’s fantasy value is tied to getting on base from the leadoff spot and scoring a ton of Runs. It’s not obvious what his lineup spot will be but at least he will be in the lineup every day.

Nicky Lopez: His value was higher when he was expected to hit first or second in the lineup, but with Bobby Witt Jr. making the team, Lopez will hit in the back half. Talent-wise, no skill sticks out but he’s not a complete zero in any category.

Bobby Bradley: At least Bradley is going to play every day to start the season with 30+ HR power and that is it. No speed or batting average. There is a chance he eventually loses the job to Josh Naylor.

Gavin Lux: Well, his value got a little more interesting with AJ Pollock being traded to the White Sox. It seems like Lux (career .735 OPS vs RHP, .499 vs LHP) will be in a platoon with Hanser Alberto (career .596 OPS vs RHP, .815 OPS vs LHP). The trade has opened some at-bats for Lux, but probably not enough to be fantasy relevant.

Randal Grichuk: I have no idea how to value Grichuk since I have no idea about his role. The Rockies have a plethora of OK to good outfielders (Grichuk, Blackmon, Bryant, Hilliard, Daza, and Joe) and I could see Blackmon and Bryant get full-time at-bats and the other four splitting time.

Connor Joe: See Randal Grichuk

Seth Beer: I see Beer getting most of the DH at-bats for Arizona but others will cycle through the position limiting him to around 450 PA.

Patrick Wisdom: Even though he hit 28 HR last year, it’s tough to get past his 41% K% leading to a .231 AVG. The other issue is that the Cubs seem set on making Jonathan Villar their third baseman instead of Wisdom. I don’t see a reason to roster Wisdom except in NL-only leagues.

Keston Hiura: I have no faith he’ll be able to make contact with the ball enough to be a viable major leaguer. While he is posting a 1.545 OPS in Spring Training, he maintains a 31% K%. I’ll consider adding after he faces a month of major league pitching.

Colin Moran: There is no reason to have Moran on a fantasy roster (maybe 18 HR with no speed or batting average) especially since he’s at best in a platoon (career .781 OPS vs RHP, .611 OPS vs LHP).

Robinson Canó: With the way the Mets are currently constructed, I don’t see any way he reaches 300 PA unless there are a few injuries to the starting lineup. Ignore.

Tommy La Stella: He’s never hit well enough to be a fantasy viable option and since he’s in a platoon, he’s unrosterable.

Catchers

Alejandro Kirk: Not many catcher options since everyone is still healthy. Kirk’s standings have improved with the trade of Grichuk and some DH at-bats opened up.

Hitting Prospects

Steven Kwan: Will be on the major league team. It’s tough to know his exact role, but Steamer600 has him projected for 17 HR, 7 SB, and a .277 AVG.

Oscar Gonzalez: A power-hitting prospect (31 HR in the minors last season) with no speed but has always posted a decent AVG. Worth monitoring.

CBS Hitter Rostership%
Name Prev Roster% Current Roster% Change
Andrew Benintendi LF  KC 49% 55% 6%
Patrick Wisdom 3B  CHC 48% 66% 18%
Gavin Lux SS  LAD 48% 51% 3%
Bobby Dalbec 1B  BOS 44% 49% 5%
Jesus Sanchez RF  MIA 44% 53% 9%
Ian Happ LF  CHC 43% 46% 3%
Alejandro Kirk C  TOR 42% 60% 18%
Nate Lowe 1B  TEX 40% 45% 5%
Amed Rosario SS  CLE 39% 49% 10%
Jeremy Pena SS  HOU 39% 47% 8%
Myles Straw CF  CLE 38% 41% 3%
Josh Rojas 2B  ARI 35% 45% 10%
Lorenzo Cain CF  MIL 34% 43% 9%
Randal Grichuk CF  COL 33% 49% 16%
Nicky Lopez SS  KC 31% 35% 4%
J.P. Crawford SS  SEA 31% 34% 3%
Connor Joe LF  COL 23% 27% 4%
Tommy Pham LF  CIN 23% 32% 9%
Colin Moran 1B  CIN 19% 24% 5%
Keston Hiura 1B  MIL 18% 23% 5%
Bobby Bradley 1B  CLE 17% 21% 4%
Robinson Cano 2B  NYM 17% 20% 3%
Seth Beer 1B  ARI 15% 19% 4%
Oscar Gonzalez LF  CLE 15% 23% 8%
Tommy La Stella 2B  SF 14% 20% 6%
Bryson Stott SS  PHI 14% 22% 8%
Tony Kemp 2B  OAK 7% 10% 3%
Steven Kwan OF CLE UNK 7% UNK

Starters

Matt Brash: Brash has secured Seattle’s fifth rotation spot with his 97 mph fastball and 84 mph curve. He destroyed all minor league hitters he faced last season with a 13+ K/9. I’m not sure how his season will end up, but it’s probably the last chance to roster him.

Bailey Ober: As the president of the Bailey Ober fan club, I’ve got nothing bad to mention about him. Good strikeout and groundball rate, no walk rate, and a couple of elite non-fastballs. Roster away.

Tylor Megill: Megill now has a chance to show off his stuff. Last season he had a 9.9 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, and a 95 mph fastball. His changeup and slider both had a swinging-strike rates of over 15%. Must roster in all formats.

Hunter Greene: A fastball over 100 mph and a spot in the Reds rotation. The only issue, for now, is that he throws just two pitches and may struggle the third time through the lineup.

MacKenzie Gore: There are a ton of glowing reports about Gore from Spring Training. The once top pitching prospect seems to be on the rebound. His fastball is averaging 96 mph. Also, he has 11 strikeouts and just one walk in 11 IP so far. Walks held him back last season (5.4 BB/9 in AAA), so seeing the single walk is encouraging. Ed. note: The Sunday morning Manaea trade likely dashes Gore’s chances at a rotation spot out of Spring, but he is firmly back on the radar after seemingly working through the yips that plagued him last year. 

Elieser Hernandez: Like with Pham and Cain in the hitter rankings, Hernandez currently has value because he’s healthy. While he can be home run prone (2.0 HR/9 for his career), his 9.2 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 from last are above average. Roster him until he breaks.

Patrick Corbin: While not back to his old self as one of the top dozen or so arms in the game, he took a step forward in August and September with an 8.8 K/9, 50 GB%, and his fastball averaging over 93 mph.

Aaron Ashby: Ashby has the potential to be a good starter, but the Brewers have a loaded rotation for now. There is some talk of Ashby being part of a six-man rotation. These swingmen are tough to rank.

Mitch Keller: Keller’s demand will be driven by him adding over 2 mph to his fastball compared to last season (93.9 to 96.4 mph). While he only has seven strikeouts in 8 IP, he’s walked just one batter after posting a 4.4 BB/9 last season. The key to his value will be keeping his velocity up. It has already dropped 1.3 mph from his first to his second start.

Drew Rasmussen: There are some people (and a robot) who believe in a Rasmussen breakout. I just can’t get behind it. His K%-BB% dropped from 18% to 14% going from starter to reliever. He throws just two pitches (fastball and slider). And velocity tanked as a starter (image). I could be wrong, but I just don’t see the pieces for a breakout.

Zach Eflin: Eflin is ahead of schedule but will still start the season on the IL. Additionally, his fastball velocity was down over 1 mph in his last recorded start. On top of the injury concerns, he’s never been an above-average pitcher. Streamer option once healthy.

Taijuan Walker: He’s delayed in his ramp-up and not an elite talent. Target Tylor Megill instead.

Miles Mikolas: A low-strikeout, low-walk starter who is only valuable as a streaming option.

Nick Martínez: While the Padres signed Martinez, little to no news has come out on him. There is just nothing to go off at this point.

Merrill Kelly 켈리: Kelly has a rotation spot and a new contract, but there is little to nothing to get excited about for him.

CBS Starter Rostership%
Name Prev Roster% Current Roster% Change
Patrick Corbin SP  WAS 42% 45% 3%
Aaron Ashby RP  MIL 39% 48% 9%
Hunter Greene RP  CIN 38% 56% 18%
Taijuan Walker SP  NYM 36% 39% 3%
Drew Rasmussen RP  TB 35% 41% 6%
MacKenzie Gore SP  SD 34% 48% 14%
Zach Eflin SP  PHI 34% 46% 12%
Bailey Ober SP  MIN 34% 41% 7%
Merrill Kelly SP  ARI 24% 28% 4%
Elieser Hernandez SP  MIA 18% 22% 4%
Tylor Megill SP NYM UNK 18% UNK
Mitch Keller SP  PIT 17% 27% 10%
Miles Mikolas SP  STL 17% 21% 4%
Matt Brash SP  SEA 15% 26% 11%

Relievers (ranked by chances to get Saves)

Cole Sulser: Good reliever who is likely the closer.

Paul Sewald: Good reliever who is part of a closer-by-committee.

Anthony Bender: Good reliever who is sharing the closer’s role.

Dylan Floro: OK reliever, who is hurt, but had the closer’s job. He’s the hardest to rank because if he was healthy, he’d be number one.

Robert Suarez: Good reliever who could be part of a closer-by-committee.

Art Warren: Good reliever who may be the closer.

Rowan Wick: OK reliever who may be the closer.

David Robertson: OK reliever who may be the closer.

Alex Colomé: OK reliever who may be the closer.

Spencer Patton: Good reliever who may be part of a closer-by-committee.

Emilio Pagán: Good reliever who may be part of a closer-by-committee.

Daniel Hudson: Good reliever who is no longer being considered as the closer.

CBS Reliever Rostership%
Name Prev Roster% Current Roster% Change
Dylan Floro RP  MIA 38% 40% 2%
Paul Sewald RP  SEA 33% 36% 3%
Emilio Pagan RP  SD 32% 36% 4%
Alex Colome RP  COL 31% 40% 9%
Rowan Wick RP  CHC 26% 33% 7%
Cole Sulser RP  BAL 20% 27% 7%
Robert Suarez RP  SD 18% 32% 14%
Art Warren RP  CIN 16% 24% 8%
Anthony Bender RP  MIA 13% 21% 8%
Daniel Hudson RP  LAD 13% 21% 8%
Nick Martinez RP  SD 5% 9% 4%
David Robertson RP  CHC 3% 7% 4%
Spencer Patton RP  TEX 1% 4% 3%





Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

32 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
MikeInNJ
1 year ago

I took Ashby in my draft knowing he could start (good) or be a multi-inning reliever (still good). The latter might turn out even better. The W’s are just as likely to be there out of the pen as they are when starting. The worst-case scenario is being an opener when there is literally zero chance for a W.