The other day 4 of us writers did a draft of players owned in less than 10% of all ESPN leagues. We drafted a C, CI, MI, OF, SP and RP and here were the results:

Besides the entire draft results, here is a quick explanation of my 6 picks

John Buck (C)– The choice of Buck was pretty easy. He is a catcher with home run ability. This season so far he has hit 8 HRs in 291 PA with the Marlins and looks to still get plenty more PA. These numbers are just a bit below his career average where he has averaged 1 home run for every 30 PA. His average and SB are non-existent, but what is to be expected from a catcher owned in less than 10% of all leagues. I will gladdly take the home runs, especially from a catcher.

Jonny Gomes (OF) – I figured that I may attempt at locking up home runs with Gomes to go along with Buck. He looks to be on pace for 20 home runs and maybe even get 10 SB. His average is a drag, but he generally gets consistent playing time so he will have chances to accumulate Runs and RBIs to go along with the HRs.

Aaron Crow (RP)– I took the Royals All-Star selection in the hope that Soria will become either injured or traded. Crow then looks to be in line to move into the closer role where he will begin picking up saves. There are other relievers with better rate stats, but I am taking a chance on saves with this pick.

Scott Sizemore (MI)– This is probably the safest move I took. Usually, I would aim for a player that excels at one area, but with Scott he is just an all around below average player. He will get at bats and not destroy or will any category. Boring.

Casey Blake (CI) – I need a CI and the pickings were slim. I am pretty much hoping that he can get back to hitting some home runs. Also, he could put up some OK counting stats (Runs and RBIs).

Brandon McCarthy (SP) – I waited on SP which seemed like the deepest category. I about went with Danny Duffy, but decided against double homer-ism after drafting Crow and instead went with McCarthy. I will take the 3.5 K/BB and hope the A’s offense can show up once or twice during the rest of the season.

This past weekend, two pitchers for the A’s, Rich Harden and Brandon McCarthy, returned to the team after stints on the DL. Here is a look at how each pitcher performed and what to expect from them over the rest of the season.

Rich Harden (9.4% ESPN, 11% Yahoo) – Rich made his 2011 debut on Saturday by striking out 6 and not walking anyone in 6 IP.

Read the rest of this entry »

Recently, I did a little work looking at the owned % and the likely hood that a player would be starting on a fantasy depending on the league size. Using Yahoo ownership rates, 90% ownership is probably the starting level for 10 team leagues, 85% for 12 team leagues and 10% for 20 team leagues. Originally, I figured I could just go down the ownerships of each position and get the players on the edge, but multiple positions eligibilities caused some confusion, especially for IF positions like 2B, SS and 3B. The following is the 2B who rank around the cutoff value for 12 team leagues, 85% and below.

The 4 players I will be looking at today are Placido Polanco, Kelly Johnson, Ryan Roberts and Danny Espinosa. Here are their ownership rates and stats so far this year:

After looking at the these 4, here is the order I would prefer to own/play them:

1. Danny Espinosa: He has the combination of speed (9 SB) and power (15 HR) that the others don’t have. His average is not ideal, but it is expected considering his BABIP (0.264) and K% (25%). It would be nice to see him make some more contact, but his combination of speed and power from 2B is tough to find.

2. Ryan Roberts: The 30 year old is having a career season and I would ride to the end of it. He is already at career highs in SB and HR only half way through the season. His triple line slash of 0.254/0.341/.439 isn’t far this season are that his preseason ZIPS projection of 0.251/0.3290.400. Ryan was finally given the opportunity to play every day and he is taking full advantage of it.

3. Kelly Johnson: He is performing like Danny Espinosa lite. Power and speed, but can’t hit for average at all. His BABIP has risen from 0.227 at the end of March to 0.267, which has helped his AVG some. The main reason for the low AVG is that every third at bat he is striking out. If/once he begins to make contact on a more regular basis, he will instantly become more valuable.

4. Placido Polanco: He has hit for good AVG, but that is about it. He is showing little speed (5 SB) and less power (3 HR). This is a case where the abilities he has, doesn’t translate to fantasy baseball. If you need help with AVG and have plenty of speed and power, he may be worth acquiring.

As a whole, each of these 2B can make decent contributions to a fantasy team. Out of these 4 though, I will take Espinosa, which currently has the lowest ownership rate.

Brandon Webb (shoulder): Brandon made his 4th AA rehab start of the season last Friday and it wasn’t good:

2/3 an inning, 4 ER, 4 hits, 1 K, 1 BB.

The rest of his AA starts haven’t been much better.

4 games, 9.75 ERA, 6 K/9, 4.5 BB/9 over 12 innings.

I still think there some possible value left in Brandon and he may be worth keeping in a DL spot for a while longer. First, his ERA is bloated from a 0.444 BABIP and 58% LOB%. Currently his FIP is at 4.75, while not great, it is half of his ERA. Second, his fastball speed has been between 85 to 87 MPH in his starts so far. This value may seem low, but his average speed was around 88 MPH during his better MLB seasons. While the speed is down a bit, it is not that far off his previous values.

There is no reason to totally give on him over 12 innings, but I would be keeping track of his progress and see if he can begin to put it together.

Phil Hughes (shoulder): Phil’s ownership rate has crept up as he is getting closer to coming off the DL. In his first rehab start his fastball speed topped out at 95MPH. In his second start, it was a little slower topping out at 93 MPH and was in the range of 91 to 93 MPH. Even though he threw a little slower the second time out, his fastball speed is up ~3 MPH from his starts earlier this season. His fastball seems effective since he has gotten 10 minor leaguers to strike out in 7.2 IP.

He should be continue to be held in a DL spot and his minor league outings monitored.

Johan Santana (shoulder): It is looking more and more likely that Johan will pitch just a few starts, if at all, in 2011. His return time line has been moved back and with the Mets out of contention, there is no real reason to rush him back.

Bartolo Colon (hamstring): Tonight (Monday), Bartolo will pitch a simulated game to see how healed his hamstring is right now. After the outing, the Yankees will then have a better idea of a return timeline.

Jonathan Broxton (shoulder): Jonathan was supposed to join the Dodgers soon, but he felt stiffness in his shoulder on Saturday. It looks like his return will be put on hold. He was supposed to return to the Dodger’s closer role, but not for now.

Over a month ago, I looked at relievers that have SP qualification. For leagues that have daily transactions, these pitchers can fit in nicely for real starting pitchers on their off days. They are must haves in leagues that count holds. Also, they may vulture a save or win here and there and help pad your rate stats. Today, I am going to look at a few more of these pitchers.

Mike Stutes, Phi – In late April, Stutes joined the Phillies and was mainly used in low leverage situations. As the Phillies pen has gone through several changes, he has moved into the role as one of the main setup men.

The main reason for his climb has been his ability to strike more than 1 batter per IP (9.13 K/9). The high number of K’s,low BABIP (0.200) and low HR/FB (6.7 HR/FB) has lead to his ERA of 2.00. His FIP (3.93) and xFIP (4.27) are both about twice his ERA and the increase is mainly do to his BB/9 of 5.3.

Stutes seems like a nice option for holds and a vulture and win now and then (3 in the last 4 games he has appeared in), but his ERA does not look sustainable at this low level.

Tony Watson, Pit – Since pitching his first MLB game on Jun 8, Watson has been lights out for the Pirates with an ERA of 0.94. Also he is almost striking out 1 batter per inning (8.4 K/9). This strikeout rate may not be sustainable since he only averaged 7.4 K/9 in minors.

Besides the higher than normal K numbers, he is walking over 4.5 batters per nine innings. Also, he has a low BABIP (0.200) and HR/FB rate (0.0). These values can be seen with his his FIP (2.64) and xFIP (3.70) being multiple times higher than his ERA.

He is currently being used in late inning situations so there will be chances for Holds and vulture wins as the season goes on. Watson seems to be a nice option for SP/RP, but his ERA and K/9 will regress a bit.

Sam LeCure, Cin – After 4 games in April as a starter, LeCure has been moved to the pen where his results look like he has excelled. As a starter his ERA was 4.79, but as a reliever it is 0.56. Don’t let these numbers fool you. His K/9 and BB/9 as a starter (8.27, 2.18) were better than those as a reliever (7.88, 2.25). As a reliever he has been helped out with a lower BABIP (0.158 vs 0.268) and HR/FB rate (6.3% vs 18.2%).

As a whole though, LeCure seems to be a fairly servicable reliever with a K/BB over 3.5 and an ERA that should be near the 3.50 range. One area currently that doesn’t bode well for him is that he doesn’t look to be a designated setup men, so the number of holds he gets may be limited.

Hisanori Takahashi, LAA – At the beginning of the season, I looked at Takahashi as a SP/RP to target this season. He started the season performing horribly (6.59 ERA, 6.6 K/9, 4.6 BB/9). Since May 7th, he has seemed to turn the season around (1.33 ERA, 8.0 K/9, 1.8 BB/9). I could understand why some owners dumped him, but it may be time to look at possibly picking him up again.

Uneven Trades

Most owners this season have filled their DL slots and probably have an injured player or two on their bench. As these players return from the DL, it might be a good time to look to make a trade that is a little lopsided, but benefits both parties.

Read the rest of this entry »

When Albert Pujols fractured his wrist this last weekend, fantasy owners scrambled to find a replacement for him. Besides finding a replacement, owners may be wondering what type of production they should expect from him once he returns later this season. Also, owners may want to know what to expect from him on draft day next season. The following is a quick look at players that went on the DL and their production level before and after their wrist injury.

Read the rest of this entry »

Recently, I published an article here at Fangraphs listing a few pitchers returning from the DL and their fastball speeds. One commenter, Eddie from NYC, noted:

Matusz has had exactly ONE start in 2011. Drawing any conclusion from one start is waay premature …. If his velocity stays at high 80s, yes, we should be concerned, but he’s only had one start.

I could not find via the interwebs how a pitcher’s fastball velocity in their first appearance back from the DL compares to their velocity the rest of the season. So I did a little research.

Some pitchers have made a living throwing slower, but generally the faster you throw the better you perform. As Mike Fast noted at the Hardball Times, starters expect their RA/9 innings to increase by ~0.25 for every 1 MPH decrease in fastball speed. The increase is ~0.40 RA/9 for relievers. Besides seeing an increase in ERA, the pitcher’s strike out rate decreases as their fastball speed goes down. So faster equals better for these purposes.

To get the needed data, I looked at pitchers that returned from the DL in 2010. I wanted to see how their fastball speed from a few appearances or starts (1 or 3) could help predict their fastball speed later in the season. I looked at pitchers that returned from the DL and made at least 6 starts or appearances over the rest of the season -or- before they went on the DL again (K-Dice, I am looking at you).

Originally, I planned on looking at all the pitchers returning from the DL, but the values effectively became unchanged after 25 samples (even though I did double that number). I will later finish collecting all the data later as I have 300 pitchers to go through and it takes 2-3 minutes each pitcher to collect the needed data. I try to have some kind of life outside of my basement.

Here are the results from the data I have collected so far:

Initial Game
Top Value (Initial Game Average – Season Average): 2.33 MPH
Average Speed: 0.15 MPH
Lowest Value: -1.75 MPH
StdDev: 0.80 MPH

3 Game Average
Highest (Initial 3 Game Average – Season Average): 1.04 MPH
Average Speed: -0.06 MPH
Lowest: -1.45 MPH
StdDev: 0.55 MPH

The overall average fastball speed is not much higher in the first start compared to the rest of the season. Pitchers don’t really see a bump up or down in speed as the season goes on compared to their first few games.

The spread in values are smaller after having 3 games worth of data than after 1 game. With only 1 game, the Standard Deviation (SD) is 0.80 MPH, but it is 0.55 MPH after 3 games. For those without knowledge on advanced statistics, 68% of all values will be within 1 SD and 95% of values will be within 2 SDs on statistics that are normally distributed.

For example, in his first game back Brian Matusz averaged 86.6 MPH. So there is a 68% chance that his fastball speed over the rest of the season would be between 86.6 +/- 0.8 MPH (85.8 to 87.4) or 95% of the time between 86.6 +/- 1.6 MPH. He has actually maintained the average of 86.6 MPH over the season so far. The effects from the ~3 MPH decrease from last season can be seen in a career high ERA of 5.60 which weirdly matches his current and career low K/9 of also 5.60.

As a general rule, one game of fastball speeds gives some useful information, but after 3 games a pitcher is generally throwing within 1 MPH of what they will average the rest of the season.

When a hitter comes back from the DL our natural inclination is to compare their current performance to their previous performance to see if their talent level has changed. A small sample size of data is used in this exercise, which makes it tough to figure out how much to weigh the new data. To help with this problem, I have created a spreadsheet to take a small sample of a hitter’s stats and estimate their ability.

Read the rest of this entry »

It may look like the only way for Dan Uggla’s season to head is up. That is probably true, but he also has some underlying issues, beyond a low BABIP, that are causing his bad season.

Read the rest of this entry »