The following list is of the 2B that have had the largest changes in % owned at ESPN and the reasons behind the changes.
Risers
Darwin Barney (+25.1%) – I can not put a finger on one particular reason for the sudden jump in his ownership, but here are several ideas.
The following is a list of players on the DL that should be owned in keeper leagues in preparation for next season. These are players have no value for the 2011 season, but could be kept or used for trade bait for 2012.
Grady Sizemore (38% owned – Knee and Hernia ): It has be reported by the team that Sizemore is returning to the Indians in early September. He should then retake his position in CF from Kosuke Fukudome. He is no longer a threat to steal bases, 0 SB so far this season, but has been a decent source of power, 10 HR in 232 AB. He needs to be owned in all deeper and AL only leagues.
Alex Gordon has generally been seen as a disappoint since being called up to the majors. After spending a couple seasons bouncing to and from the majors and the minors, he is finally producing like he was somewhat expected to when he was drafted as the #2 overall pick out of Nebraska. Gordon’s break out this season isn’t really a breakout, he has always produced at this level in the majors.
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A few rookies called up recently, Jason Kipnis, Brett Lawrie and Johnny Giavotella, have made a splash in their short time in the majors so far. The following is a look at the areas of concern for each player going forward that may bring their hot starts back to earth.
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On Friday, I asked for our reader’s input on a few topics and here are some of the results. Thanks to everyone that filled out a survey (over 330 filled out) and hopefully we can use the information to better serve our readership:
5 categories for each pitching and hitting: 58%
Even with the expansion of other types of fantasy leagues, the basic 5×5 league is still the most common.
Types of Leagues
Roto 46%
H2H 50%
Other 4%
There was almost a 50%-50% split between head to head and roto. We may have not been giving the H2H format enough credit, so there may be more content on them in the future.
Average Number of Teams in a Mixed League:12.4
10 Team League: 24%
12 Team League: 43%
14 or more teams: 20%
Leagues are generally small in number with 2/3 of the leagues having between 10 to 12 teams. This fact leads us to our next bit of data:
% of leagues with a player over 50% owned in all leagues, but still available on the waiver wire: 75%
I have seen many comments on waiver wire articles that the players covered were not available in their leagues. These owners must be the vocal few and players over 50% owned may be popping up more in WW articles.
Percentage of leagues with 1,2, or 3 DL spots: 73%
The number of DL spots for leagues seems low. Long term DL stashing doesn’t seem like a viable option for many owners useless it is a top tier player.
Days for position qualification
1: 2.%
5: 39%
10: 39%
20: 5%
These number are fairly common.
Designate a difference between SP/RP: 77%
With the high number of H2H leagues and those that have SP/RP designations, we should write more articles on starting pitchers with RP qualifications.
Weekly Lineup changes: 24%
Daily Lineup changes: 74%
Mixed League: 89%
AL Only 6%: 6%
NL Only 4%: 4%
Nothing ground breaking with the 2 previous results.
Keeper League: 62%
This was probably the most surprising number out of the whole survey. Almost 2/3 of the leagues are keeper leagues. This off season we will look into more strategies/rankings for these leagues.
FAAB Budget: 20%
Reserve Roster: 30%
I am actually surprised that the numbers are this high for these two results. More future content may be coming on these two topics.
Auction League: 27%
Draft League: 70%
This seems about right with the ease of running a snake draft
Well that is all for today. I may cut and sort the data a little more, but the preceding is a nice snapshot of the current Rotographs readership. In the future we hope to direct more content for the types of leagues and rules readers use. Finally, thanks again for everyone that participated in the survey.
RotoGraphs is looking for information on the types of leagues that our readers are in order to more specialize the content. Feel free to submit information on one or as many leagues you belong. Any information would be greatly appreciated. Goto the following link to answer the questions. Thanks for your time and we will publish the results soon.
I always love an under dog story and this season that love story has come in the form of Ryan Roberts. The thirty year-old has hit 5 more home runs this season than in his 5 previous MLB seasons combined. Even though a few older players finally are able to break out (see Jose Bautista), the data shows that Ryan probably won’t be one of the those players. My heart is still pulling for him though.
Ryan was drafted in 2003 by the Toronto Blue Jays in the 18th round. In 8 minor league seasons, he hit for a triple slash line of 0.274/0.373/0.448. Not shabby, but nothing to really write home about. During his minor league days he hit 96 home runs, or 1 every 33 PA. During that time frame, both of the Toronto Blue Jays and Texas Rangers released him before he ended up signing with Arizona. With Arizona he was able to get a total of 422 PA in 2009 and 2010. In the 5 seasons he saw MLB playing time, he hit for a slash line of 0.251/0.333/0.389 in 453 PA.
In 2011, not that much has changed in Ryan, except he has decided to begin hitting with more power. His slash line this season is 0.259/0.355/0.447. His AVG and OBP are nearly the same, but his SLG has increase quite a bit. It is being fueled by 15 HRs, or 1 every 26 PA. This rate is better than he did in his minor league career. This jump in home runs can further be seen in his increase in HR/FB% from a previous value of 7.1% to 12.8% this season. He is actually hitting just about the same percentage of fly balls (42.5%) compared to his career value (43.6%).
The increase in home runs could actually be from hitting the ball further this season. The following is a graph of his average batted ball distances over the past 3 years on fly balls and home runs.
It can be seen that even during this season, he is not hitting the ball as far. The previous graph almost mirrors the following graph of his ISO over the last 3 years.
I don’t see any signs of his home run power being real.
The one addition trait for Ryan is that he has stolen 14 bases in 21 attempts this season. In his previous 5 seasons, he had a total of 7 SB in 10 attempts. Thirty year-olds are not really known for their speed break outs. I would be amazed if he continued to get the green light in the future.
As much as my heart wants the journey man/late bloomer to be the real deal, the information shows that this season is pointing to a career year for Ryan and not much more. His power burst this season is hallow and he is not going to enjoy the speed numbers going forward considering his age.
The waiver wire for available players on the DL is getting thin right now. Most teams are shutting down players that could possibly come off the DL for the last couple weeks of the season. Here is a look at a few players owned in less than 50% of all leagues.
Justin Morneau (45.1% ESPN) – Justin is in AAA rehabbing for the next week. After that assignment, he should be getting a call back to the majors. There is no reason not to own him in any league.
Jose Tabata (20.2%) and Alex Presley (4.2%) – Both of these two Pirates look to be coming off the DL in the next week or so. They will replace Xavier Paul in the Pirates outfield, but how they will split up their playing time is still unknown. They will probably be platooned with Presley (LHH) to face RHP and Tabata (RHH) to face LHP. They both look to be a decent source of SB (Tabata 14 SB in 257 AB and Presley with 4 SB in 81 AB). Also, Presley has hit for 0.333 in his few plate appearances this season.
Jed Lowrie (11.9%) – Lowrie joins the Red Sox tonight (Monday). The key to his return is how Marco Scutaro and him will split playing time at SS. Terry Francona has stated that the two will split time depending on match ups. Lowrie has multiple position eligibilities, but it may not matter if he doesn’t get much playing time.
Jordan Schafer (1.0%) – Once he gets off the DL in about a week, he will be the everyday center fielder for the Astros. For an owner in need of steals (15 SB in 196 AB), he is a viable option, especially in deep or NL only leagues.
Stephen Strasburg (12.3 %) – Pick him up now if available. He looks like he is going to pitch a few MLB games. With other pitchers possibly being shut down at the end of season, he could be valuable for an owner in the playoffs or one making a final push up in the standings.
Adam Wainwright (1.7%) – He is not going to pitch this season, but for keeper leagues he should be added for next year. He has several uses during the off season even if an owner doesn’t plan on actually using him for a keeper. He could be added to a trade to sweeten the pot. Also, depending on the league rules, he could be held right until the keepers are selected as insurance in case one of the other keepers gets injured.
Ross Ohlendorf (0.0%) – The waiver wire for starting pitchers returning this season is slim. Ohlendorf is set to pitch later this week for the Pirates. If you are in need of SP, I would pick him up, hold him on the DL for a game or two to see how he performs and then possibly move him to your roster or drop him.
Today I am am looking at the top 20 2B for the rest of the season. I am not taking into account if they should be moved up or down for keeper value, just their production this season. I am looking for healthy and versatile players on teams looking to make a playoff run to maximize playing time. The following is my rankings with notes on some players.
1. Dustin Pedroia – It took him a while to get going, but the SB ability ranks him above Cano.
2. Robinson Cano – Finally knocked off the top perch. He is solid, but lacking the SB.
3. Ben Zobrist – I put him over the next two do to position flexibility.
4. Ian Kinsler – Pedroia without the average.
5. Chase Utley – Utley has really picked it up and is putting up HRs and SBs at near Pedroia pace.
The following 4 (#6 to #9) may not put up the numbers of the next 3 (#10 to #12), but their multiple position elligibilites are a must at the end of the season. With most league’s trading deadlines already past or coming up, these hitters can help with roster flexibility if a player on your team hits the DL.
6. Michael Cuddyer
7. Michael Young
8. Daniel Murphy
9. Ryan Roberts – I am not sold at all on him going forward to next season, but 15 HRs and 14 SB in about 100 PA less than most of the other 2B is not shabby.
I like the following 4 2B quite a bit. If you own any of them, there is not much of a reason to look for an upgrade.
10. Brandon Phillips
11. Danny Espinosa
12. Neil Walker
13. Howie Kendrick
14. Dustin Ackley – I would have him much higher for a team out of contention in a keeper league. I could see him struggle as pitchers begin to adjust to him.
15. Martin Prado
16. Kelly Johnson – Really streaky. I drafted him in too many leagues and he is driving me nuts.
17. Dan Uggla – Extremely one dimensional with his 22 HRs (and the Runs and RBI that go with it). Could definitely be higher or lower on the list depending an owners need for HRs.
18. Rickie Weeks – A player must be on the field to help and he may not be available until September. If an owner is in contention in a keeper league, it may be wise to trade him off for a lesser talent to help with the final push.
19. Placido Polanco – Falling hard since he is not able to keep his BA near 0.300.
20. Jemile Weeks – SBs are elite. AVG is nice. Power is non existent. I about put Gordon Beckham here instead.